The straws in the wind yesterday about Reform UK performing extremely strongly in the Broxburn by-election, both organisationally and in terms of voter response, made me wonder if they were getting close to outright victory territory. So it's something of a relief to discover that, for now at least, they're still stuck in the strong third place zone.
Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by-election result on first preferences (13th March 2025):
SNP 31.8% (-10.1)
Labour 29.2% (-0.4)
Reform UK 18.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 7.5% (-10.2)
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (+1.6)
Greens 4.3% (-0.1)
Alba 3.1% (+1.7)
Labour 29.2% (-0.4)
Reform UK 18.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 7.5% (-10.2)
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (+1.6)
Greens 4.3% (-0.1)
Alba 3.1% (+1.7)
The percentage changes above are measured from the 2022 local elections, but there's actually been another by-election in the ward since then, which Labour won. So that's an indication of how the weather seems to have turned back in the SNP's favour, albeit partly by default because Labour have become so unpopular since taking power in London.
That said, the SNP came extraordinarily close to losing yesterday's by-election on transfers in spite of their decent lead on first preferences. They held off Labour by just seventeen votes on the final count.
Assuming a uniform swing, the result is consistent with a small Scotland-wide SNP lead over Labour of around three percentage points. (In reality, opinion polls suggest it's likely to be better than that.)
The Tories continue to suffer more than any other party from the Reform surge, which is logical enough. There must now be a very real chance that they will slip to fourth place (or worse) at the Holyrood election next year.
Alba can console themselves that their vote has gone up rather than down, but this result isn't really any use at all to the Alba leadership, who need a vote of 6%+ in by-elections to try to hypnotise their members into thinking they're on course for list seats next year, which they clearly aren't. However, just a word about the Alba candidate Frank Anderson, who as anyone who has encountered him will tell you, is one of the rapidly dwindling group of decent people in the upper reaches of the party. He's an elected member of Alba's Appeals Committee, and at my own appeal against expulsion in January, he stood out a mile as literally the only person on the committee who seemed to be taking his responsibilities seriously and carefully weighing up the evidence in front of him (or lack of evidence), rather than just unthinkingly rubber-stamping whatever the leadership wanted.
Mr Anderson is currently standing for Local Government Convener in Alba's internal elections. Although my horrific time as an Alba member is now mercifully over, all of us who care about decency and high standards in politics will be wishing him well - not least because his opponent is Chris Cullen, who exemplifies the absolute worst of machine politics.
I'm actually in this photo (at the top, towards the left). You've gotta love Josh - he's basically advertising his election campaign by saying "And here I am posing with just *some* of the people I've expelled as Disciplinary Chair. Chris told me to and I said 'sure, baby!'" https://t.co/MM9WYaplTV
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 13, 2025
Usual bye-elaection wher numbers are always lower than the main council elections which are lower than Holyrood. All relative.
ReplyDeleteI took that photo, you know. Look at the lighting and the contrasts...these things don't happen by chance. Two words: raw talent. Now you must excuse me, for I have movies and love to make.
ReplyDeleteIt's a magnificent pic, Zulfs. And I say that as a straight-talking strong unfiltered independent woman, so you can totes trust I'm telling the truth.
DeleteYou are Humza Yousaf and we claim our coupon.
DeleteYou will never defeat the Malcontents. They have multiple X accounts through which they spread stories of the purges, expulsions and torture (Taz’s jokes). Give up now you cannot win.
DeleteMalcontents united will never be defeated
Malcontent
DeleteAdjacent
Front
In
Alba
can defeat the Corri Nostra.
Look at faces of the ones behind Alec Salmond. A whiter shade of pale! 😂
DeleteHe made sure he hand picked the dimmo's
DeleteChris Cullen is a creep- has a history of sending unwanted dick pics to women.
DeleteThe FARAGIST takeover of Scottish politics is NOT set back. It is only taking a nap after a wholesome liquid lunch. The REVOLUTION will not be televised, it will be streamed!
ReplyDeleteKudos to our junior coalition henchmen ABLA for their STONKING result of 3%. The dream never dies there. Keep the faith, Chris. There’s a pointy cap with rather fetching eagles wings waiting for you here.
Poor showing for the lickspittles of Broxburn. Can’t they give Dear Knickerless the kick out the door she so thoroughly deserves? Pathetic showing, Broxburn. Hold your heads in shame. You are a disgrace to all of West Lothian, and you have only yourselves to blame.
DeleteWhat do we expect, though, readers from the easternmost suburb of Ibrox? Where’s your team, Broxburnites? Have they got “Continuity” in their name?
They’ve got sevco in it. Hope that helps. The Bathgate Benefits Brigade voted to shoot themselves in the head. The cream of unionism.
DeleteMake your f******* mind up, Broxburn!
ReplyDeleteState of this.
State of me. Jesus!
DeleteSome poor saddo’s on spoiling. Probably Labourites.
ReplyDeleteThis result really is a testament to John Swinney's leadership and the resilience of the SNP. Despite challenging circumstances and a strong push from Reform UK, the SNP managed to secure victory in Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh. Holding off Labour by just seventeen votes really does show the party's determination and the hard work of activists on the ground. Under Swinney's guidance, the SNP really does continue to demonstrate its ability to connect with voters and maintain its position as Scotland's leading party. Well done to him and the entire SNP team for this really hard-fought win.
ReplyDelete“Despite challenging circumstances” - like what exactly?
DeleteBeing confronted with a jar of Nutella.
DeleteYou look delighted to be there, James!
ReplyDeleteJust for reformatted data on who transferred to whom:
ReplyDeleteStage 2 - Exclusion of Frank ANDERSON (Alba) 135
Scottish Labour Party 10
Scottish National Party (SNP) 53
Scottish Greens 10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 6
Reform UK 17
Scottish Conservative and Unionist 2
Non-transferable votes 37
Stage 3 - Exclusion of Chris COTTER (Greens) 195
Scottish Labour Party 37
Scottish National Party (SNP) 76
Scottish Liberal Democrats 39
Reform UK 6
Scottish Conservative and Unionist 4
Non-transferable votes 33
Stage 4 - Exclusion of Oliver Thomas FERRARIO (LibDem) 274
Scottish Labour Party 87
Scottish National Party (SNP) 46
Reform UK 19
Scottish Conservative and Unionist 33
Non-transferable votes 89
Stage 5 - Exclusion of Marnie TAYLOR (Conservative) 363
Scottish Labour Party 94
Scottish National Party (SNP) 21
Reform UK 92
Non-transferable votes 156
Stage 6 - Exclusion of David MCLENNAN (Reform UK) 943
June ANDREWS Scottish Labour Party 164
Mike CARLIN Scottish National Party (SNP) 101
Non-transferable votes 678
Stage 7 - Exclusion of June ANDREWS (Labour) 1,655
Mike CARLIN Scottish National Party (SNP) 454 Elected
Non-transferable votes 1,201
https://www.westlothian.gov.uk/media/65789/CandidateVotesPerStageReport-V0001-Ward-2-Broxburn-Uphall-and-Winchburgh-14032025-103342/pdf/CandidateVotesPerStageReport_V0001_Ward-2---Broxburn-Uphall-and-Winchburgh_14032025_103342.pdf?m=1741953330053
Yes I am a sad person.
A surprisingly respectable number of transfers from the Lib Dems to the SNP.
DeleteYes. There's a fair bit of detail:
Deletehttps://www.westlothian.gov.uk/article/85003/Broxburn-Uphall-and-Winchburgh-By-Election-Results-2025
and this might be interesting if I can figure it out!
https://www.westlothian.gov.uk/media/65787/PreferenceSummary-V0001-Ward-2-Broxburn-Uphall-and-Winchburgh-14032025-104436/pdf/PreferenceSummary_V0001_Ward-2---Broxburn-Uphall-and-Winchburgh_14032025_104436.pdf?m=1741953329447
I'm thinking that a painful look at all such detail of all by-elections could show how for instance, Reform UK voters might put parties as preferences overall. And perhaps how much for or against Indy has anything to do with anything.
Where's AI when you need it?
Yesindyref2.
DeleteThanks for that. Really interesting to see where the votes go.
Maybe this comment from ballotbox.scot catches the mood:
Delete"Those Reform votes simply aren’t transferring anywhere. Although Labour do generally do better out of them, with 17.4% of the total to the SNP’s 10.7%, that leaves a whopping 71.9% just going absolutely nowhere. In this case the margin is so tiny that I would bet the different was made up by people who don’t understand the system rather than people actively choosing not to preference Labour, but at the end of the day, that doesn’t matter after the fact: it cost them the win either way."
I think ballotbox hasn't realised that reform were the last to go out, so any transfers to Alba, Greens, LibDems or the Tories just wouldn't show up in the totals as they were already excluded.
DeleteWell, yes and no, it's STV not Supplementary Vote, so voters could express as many preferences as there were candidates. The point is that Reform voters weren't transferring to Labour to stop the SNP.
DeleteNot so sure that a 31.8% share of the vote is a belter of a win for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteWith the SNP vote down over 10.1 % and Labour on 29.2% I'd say it was a skin of the teeth win.
That Reform secured 18.7% of the vote confirms how unpopular the SNP are. No longer the heady forty plus and more votes of not so long ago.
For me the Reform vote at the level it is at is a stark indicator of just how unhappy so many of the Scottish voters are.
Exactly. The headline’s a longstanding in-joke.
DeleteThe SNP keeps the seat but a half inch closer and they wouldn’t. It’s not a confidence boost for them by any means. They’ve lost a gigantic amount of trust with working class Scots. Got till next May to earn it back.
But that's not really true, is it? Standing still might well produce a pro-independence majority. Even if it wouldn't, the recovery needed would be minor, not major.
DeleteAnd although, yes, Will is too thick to spot that James' headlines are satirical, he's also too thick to spot that the percentage changes quoted are based on 2022 not 2024, and that a swing to Labour since 2022 can often mean a swing to the SNP since 2024. A double whammy of thickness from Will, one might say.
The Tories lost 10% of their vote therefore they had a belter, too.
DeleteYou're still not grasping the difference between the 2022 and 2024 baselines, are you? Don't worry. Probably it could be explained to you a hundred times and you still wouldn't understand it.
DeleteJust let James have his say. Another 10% or more drop in votes and Unionists votes still at around 60%. Leave him alone.
DeleteJohn Swinney's dedication to continuing Nicola Sturgeon's progressive legacy is truly commendable. His commitment to advancing LGBTQ+ rights and driving forward Scotland's net zero ambitions shows his unwavering focus on equality and sustainability. By building on these foundations, Swinney is ensuring that Scotland remains a leader in social justice and environmental responsibility. His leadership is inspiring and impactful.
ReplyDeleteFinger on the pulse, Astroturfer.
DeleteYou have noticed what a skin of the teeth result this was, and your man Swinney’s paved the road with the “bodies” of the TQ+. ;-)
Are transwomen women?
“No.” —John Swinney.
“ his leadership is inspiring” 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😙
DeleteIt must be a sad life worrying about transwomen. Do guys in kilts not count?
DeleteHas nobody said 'cracked hull' yet this morning?
ReplyDeletePersonally haemorrhoid cream prevents this I’ve been told.
DeleteIs Scotland the only part of the UK to have these stupid complicated voting systems? I think I'll embrace FPTP from now on.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to be too difficult for you. Best not to worry about it all. Stay at home watching Antiques Roadshow and leave the voting to the adults.
DeleteFPTP is considerably more complicated for the voter, because you have to have some knowledge of who is likely to be competitive in the seat. Under STV you just rank the candidates in order of preference
DeleteIt was imposed by Westminster to ensure the SNP could never win. At the time Dewar believed a labour/ Lib Dem fix would ensure labour in charge in Scotland even if the tories wet at Nos 10. Called it democracy.
ReplyDeleteD'Hondt for Holyrood was the Donald Dewar thing.
DeleteSTV was introduced for councils in 2007. Donald Dewar died in 2000.
It's not really just D'Hondt, it's AMS (Additional Member System) which is FPTP for the 73 Constituency MSPs, and D'Hondt for the list 56 MSPs over 8 regions.
Deletehttps://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/spice/factsheets/parliamentary-business/scottish-parliament-electoral-system-12-may-2021.pdf
9:22 am
DeleteI have thus irritating habit of noticing when clueless buffoons talk authoritatively about things they know nothing about, or twist a ragbag of facts into what they think is a coherent narrative. I noticed you.
P M at 10.06. They do say you often recognise yourself in other people. That explains it.
DeleteSorry for going off topic, but can anyone on SGP recommend a reputable company for installing and maintaining air conditioning / ventilation systems in commercial and light industrial settings?
ReplyDeleteThis is a good result for the SNP. Very close but a win is a win.
ReplyDelete“SNP storm to a belter of a Broxburn by-election win”
ReplyDeleteI agree, this is very encouraging.
Good to see the pro Indy vote share remaining steady at just below the 40% mark too.
The percentage turnout actually fell from by around 9% from the previous by-election - and that was held in winter. The Unionists needn't care but pro-Indy politicians who are serious about change shouldn't think of this as positive.
DeleteYou're replying to a KC comment. I live with this every day of my life, I know all the hallmarks.
DeleteIf he'd said that Nessie had been spotted in the River Almond then I'd have handled it better.
DeleteSimple question. Why are there no trans players in the Scotland rugby team? The hate continues.
DeleteTry and grow up and achieve some sort of competence.
DeleteAnon at 3.02
DeleteShut it, fairy feet.
My goodness diddums what a wee sensitive soul you are.
DeleteWho is this KC character?
Delete5.26pm you.
DeleteJohn Swinney has shown great leadership in advancing the SNP’s commitment to progrssive politics like net zero, tackling climate change and championing LGBTQ+ rights.
ReplyDeleteIn this regard he has built on the foundations laid by Nicola Sturgeon.
His dedication to a greener fairer Scotland ensures the party remains at the forefront of climate action, renewable energy investment and environmental justice. Where Nicola Sturgeon put it.
John Swinney has put forward policies that support LGBTQ+ equality, social inclusion and a just transition to a sustainable economy.
His leadership cements the SNP’s role as a driving force for progressive change.
He deserves praise for the work to these ends.
I see you no longer think Swinney’s leadership is inspiring. Good to see you are learning. AI rules😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
DeleteWhat does Broxburn have to do with LGBTQWERTY+?
DeleteShut that door.
ReplyDeleteMy door's always open. Ooh, pardon my French!
DeleteWis it you that burst the windea in the Balmoral?
DeleteIs there a concerted effort by Alba/WOS to ruin this btl and prevent discussion? James?
ReplyDeleteThe reverend is disillusioned with Alba.
ReplyDelete