First of all, I have an article at The National about the 'Super Thursday' local by-election results in Scotland, and in particular about Reform UK's good showing in them. You can read the piece HERE.
On another subject, I realised earlier this afternoon that I had somehow overlooked the fact that the recent Norstat poll contained independence numbers, and I know KC would never forgive me if I didn't give them a mention. They are pretty remarkable.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat, 30th October - 1st November 2024)
Yes 50% (+2)
No 50% (-2)
Better still, if rounded to one decimal place, the results are Yes 50.3%, No 49.7%, which means that on one measure, both of the two most recent polls on independence (from Find Out Now and Norstat respectively) have shown a Yes majority.
There are also Westminster voting intention numbers, which show Labour haven't been spared the same slump that they suffered on the Holyrood figures...
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 30% (+1)
Labour 23% (-9)
Conservatives 15% (+3)
Reform UK 14% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)
Greens 6% (+1)
Alba 2% (-)
* * *
There was a flurry of comments a couple of threads back claiming that Alba's 9% vote share in the Inverclyde West by-election cost the SNP victory. That's not the case, and I think people were forgetting that the election wasn't conducted under first-past-the-post. Alba voters had the opportunity, if they wished, to have their votes transferred to the SNP after the Alba candidate was eliminated, and 43% of them took that opportunity, which in fact was more than enough to push the SNP into the lead at Stage 3, although Labour then jumped back into first place after the Tory votes were redistributed and broke overwhelmingly in the predictable direction.
So nearly 60% alba voted against the snp on the 2nd vote
ReplyDeleteOnce again, no, that's not right. A substantial chunk of the votes were non-transferable (ie. the voters didn't express any lower preferences at all).
DeleteThese people are so desperate to allocate blame to Alba they just ignore facts.
DeleteHere is another fact the poll has independence at 50% but the SNP only at 30%. Anyone want to claim that difference is down to Alba when Alba is sitting at 2%.
Latest Alba Party update:
ReplyDeleteI hope this email finds you well. Firstly I would like to thank you for your support and understanding over the past few weeks, it has been much appreciated.
I am writing to you during what is undoubtedly a challenging and unexpected time for all of us. As you know, with the sudden and tragic passing of our party leader, Alex, we find ourselves at a critical moment in the history of our party.
Over the past year, the current executive team has worked closely with Alex, gaining unique insight into his vision, plans, and strategies for the future. In light of the cancellation of the upcoming conference, we believe that it is in the party’s best interest to maintain stability during this transition period.
The NEC met last week and agreed on a proposal, under the circumstances, for the current executive team to remain in place until the rescheduled conference on the 28 & 29 March 2025.
This will ensure that Alex's vision and direction are carried forward as we prepare for the crucial 2026 campaign and deal with the sudden increase in our membership. The executive team will continue to steer the party and make the necessary decisions, as outlined in our party’s Constitution, to keep us moving forward.
We want to engage you, our members, in this decision and are inviting you to participate in a vote to either support or reject this proposal. The vote will be conducted on the principle of one member, one vote, ensuring that every voice is heard equally.
What we are asking from you:
Vote to Support the Executive Team: By voting in favour of this proposal, you allow the current executive team to remain in place until March 2025, providing much-needed stability as we navigate this difficult time.
The team’s continued leadership will allow us to remain focused on the goals and strategies Alex worked so hard to build, especially his vision for 2026, while also giving us the time to plan for the future of the party.
We strongly encourage you to consider supporting this proposal to ensure that our party remains on track, united, and stable as we face the road ahead.
We are grateful for your ongoing commitment to the party, and we trust in your support to guide us forward during this pivotal moment.
You can vote HERE.
Detail will follow soon regarding booking tickets for conference or transferring your previous ticket.
We are delighted to see ALBA continues to rise with news from the Gourock by-election today, where we saw our vote share increase to nearly 9%.
Commenting at the count, Chris McEleny, said:
"Thank you so much to the entire Alba Party family that rallied behind me during such a difficult period. We can take lots of positives out of this result: we finished ahead of Reform who have daily coverage beamed into our homes from South of the border, the result we achieved today wasn’t an electoral breakthrough but it has well and truly put us on the field ahead of the 2026 election."
You can read his full comments here.
Thank you for your time and consideration. If you have any questions or would like further clarification, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Yours for Scotland,
Kenny Macaskill
Acting Leader
Alba Party
Can’t believe anything he says. Can’t even count. Keep us in power to next year.
DeleteKeep it real, people.
ReplyDeleteNah, make it fantastical, dudes.
DeleteThe English / British government want to control who Scots are allowed to marry to keep the blood line ‘British’. Hence making it very difficult and costly to fall in love with someone without a UK passport.
DeleteWell Skier at 8.30am - according to you you managed it ok with your French wife.
DeleteIf the Alba vote had gone to SNP in the first instance with no transferable vote made, what would the result most likely have been?
ReplyDeleteBut it wouldn't have done. Not least because a substantial minority of Alba votes transferred to Labour or the Tories, and thus clearly weren't SNP fans.
DeleteYou do not answer my question James. It was framed as a IF question. And IF what I said had happened, SNP would have won?
DeleteI didn't answer your question because, as I explained, and as you did not deny, it was based on an obviously false premise.
DeleteAnon at 1.20pm - your hypothetical is of as much use as asking what if all the Tories voted for the SNP. What has no credibility is the continual nonsense that Alba is the cause of the SNP troubles.
DeleteIt's the SNP leadership that is the cause of the SNP's troubles.
Yes at 50% and the SNP at 30% is not down to Alba. It's down to the Britnats in the SNP.
IFS at 1.44. This s discussion is way
DeleteAnon gibberish at 3.27pm.
DeleteOr even independence supporters. Some communist supporters and socialist republicans are pro Brit believing in a homogeneous workers state.
ReplyDeleteIsrael is not in Europe and should not be participating in European football events in the first place. Just how many children can Israel murder before they are excluded? European footballers are playing football with them while they massacre women and children. War crimes are committed every day.
ReplyDeleteIsrael should also be expelled from the UN.
Israel has to play in Europe because their players lives are in danger in the Islamic world. This is a problem which long predates recent events in Gaza. Do you remember the Israeli athletes murdered at the Munich Olympics in 1972?
DeleteYes that was a terrible terrorist event which took place in Europe incidentally!
DeleteAs I see it much of the goodwill towards the Israeli's is being lost due to the actions of the current Israeli Government with their PM awaiting corruption and other trials should he be removed from office or retires.
Yes, in Europe but committed by Islamic fanatics but let's just gloss over the Islamic part so we can all feel better about ourselves.
DeleteAnon at 7.37am - I also know that a sporting boycott also helped to end that other apartheid state at the time South Africa.
DeleteSo no Israel does not have to play in Europe and should never have been allowed to in the first place.
The Israeli fans were recorded chanting they were killing Arabs. We do not need this in Europe.
That monster Netahanyu calling it a pogrom is typical of the lies coming from his government. Also organising an evacuation is a joke.
Russia quite rightly is banned and that is a European county but Israel is not. As Israel has conscription there is a chance some of these Israeli players have murdered Palestinian children.
This is certainly an encouraging poll.
ReplyDeleteThe next step has to be, to get Yes consistently above 50% in the majority of polls, to demonstrate that independence is the settled will of the Scottish people.
That step has already passed, let's be honest. The vast majority of the most credible polls, ie. Ipsos telephone polls, have shown Yes above 50% for years. The settled will is there, now let's do something with it.
DeleteAnon at 9.13. What do you propose we do?
DeleteImplement the settled will of the people.
DeleteAgree 100%. It's time.
DeleteAnon at 2.41. Talk us through what we actually do.
DeleteYour step-by-step guide:
Delete1) Imprison KC on some trumped up charges.
2) Become an independent country.
Agree totally.
DeleteSounds like as good a plan as any I’ve heard from any of the anti SNP brigade.
Delete(not anonymous, can't change it, am KP) Why conference on Friday and Saturday instead of weekend? Same as cancelled Nov. one. Discriminates against working-class people who'll find it more difficult to get the day off. This indirectly affects me though retired, but with responsibilities to a worker.
ReplyDeleteKP? Nuts? Alba is a busted flush.
ReplyDelete