GB-wide voting intentions for the next general election (WeThink, 11th-12th July 2024):
Labour 39% (-2)
Conservatives 20% (-3)
Reform UK 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
Greens 9% (+2)
SNP 2% (-)
More likely, I'd have thought, is that the new weighting has indeed been brought in and has corrected for a massive overstatement of Labour in the pre-election polls. That would mean Labour's support has actually increased by four points in this poll (not by five because this is a GB rather than UK-wide poll) which would suggest that Starmer is enjoying some sort of honeymoon - and that's entirely to be expected given the fawning media coverage he's been given during his first 10 days in power. However, bearing in mind that the SNP are ultimately going to need the Labour government to become unpopular before 2026, it's reassuring that this appears to be a pretty limited honeymoon. In similar situations in the past it wouldn't have been unexpected to see a Labour vote share of 45% or 50% or even higher - albeit only temporarily.
By far the worst take I've seen on this poll is the suggestion that it shows there was a temporary dip in Labour support on election day due to tactical voting and that it's bounced back now. I mean, I know Starmerites are in shock that they took a smaller popular vote than Jeremy Corbyn did in 2019 (let alone than Corbyn did in 2017), but that's truly desperate. You can just imagine them in the run-up to polling day in 2028 or 2029: "now, remember, we'll probably have our customary election day dip, but don't worry, we'll be right back in business after the election is over!"
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You are missing Reform 16% (+1)
ReplyDeleteSorry. Corrected now.
DeleteThey voted for "Change", doesn't seem true based on these numbers.
ReplyDeleteI am sure in years ahead I will still be asking what has "Changed".
Could the Labour party slogan be their final nail 2029?
It will depend on economic competence - that is the key thing that drives elections.
DeleteSo we will just have to see if their handling of the economy proves competent.
Labour will not be able to fix UK and people of Scotland will see through them given time. When Starmer starts with "the boat people", last Wednesday at PMQ, you know nothing has changed. It is all a big Red Con!
DeleteThere has been a PMQ?
DeleteMy bad, it was his opening speech to the house after the election. Does it make a difference to you?
DeleteThat speech didn't mention "boat people". I just checked.
DeleteSome of the posters on here have brains like dug meat unfortunately. #votealba
DeleteCheck again, there was a reference to boat people. Why are you on this blog? Seems you have difficulty accepting views from members that are pro Scottish independence.
DeleteI say again your unionist Labour will do nothing and there will be no change to living standards for normal people. You have been Redconned!
Hi Richard. I checked again. No reference to boat people here:
Deletehttps://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2024-07-09a.1.4&s=speaker%3A25353#g5.2
Richard I am just interested.
DeleteRichard Barnes
DeleteRob here. Im wondering how you might see this in light of the Scottish Social Attitudes survey the BBC is reporting. Surprise surprise, the percentage who said they trusted the Scottish government to act in Scotland's best long-term interests has fallen to 47%, down from 61% in 2019.
ReplyDelete"Trust in the UK government to act in the interest of Scotland remained well below the figure for the Scottish government but increased slightly - from 15% in 2019 to 21% in 2023."
Interestingly, more people believe Westminster (46%) has more influence over Scotland than Holyrood (43%), but "A majority think the Scottish government should have the most influence (61%)." Hardly surprising given the mismatch in attitudes to the SNP and Independence...
New methodology was apparently used for the SSAS in which only 16% of the actual population was surveyed but the media won't tell anybody that, they'll report this as fact and not a "poll suggests"
DeleteIt's as likely this poll is a million miles wrong as it could be right
The accuracy of a survey is more to do with number sampled than with % of population.
Delete16% of Scottish population is 0.8 million. This is more than enough ti be accurate.
Tongue in cheek comment? I'm imagining all these enthusiastic people with clipboards setting off to interview a million people. There's no way the sample size was anything close to that.
Delete“These targets were met and SSAS 2023 achieved 1,574 fully productive interviews and a 15.1% household response rate.”
Deletehttps://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-social-attitudes-survey-2023-technical-report/pages/3/
I'd interpret a 15% response rate as meaning that 15% of households thatbwere contacted responded and took part in the survey. The 1,574 fully useful surveys is a subset of that 15%.
DeleteMy reading is that 1,574 completed the survey from a total sample of 10,424 attempts.
Delete10,000 odd picked at random according to set criteria from the postcode address file (PAF) were sent invitations; it was anticipated 15% would accept, in fact it was 15.1% which was 1,574. Median time was 33 minutes each.
DeleteHas anyone noticed the lack of independence polls since the election? I wonder why? Perhaps some have been done and the unionist media don't want us to hear the results?
ReplyDeleteDear oh dear oh dear! Britnats like you will never give up spouting shite
DeleteYes SNP vote was 5% less than Labour ( that got most seats due to a crap electoral system) but the the real point is that the support for independence is much higher than the support for SNP at present.
We will never give up trying to escape the colonial yoke of the UK.
Alba gu brath.
Well the Brits always denigrate people's aspiration for nationhood. Nevertheless most countries have escaped the imperial yoke . Scotland's turn next.
DeleteAlba gu brath
I see a labour minister is now stating that the two child cap may not actually be that harmful. We did try to warn you. Just a shame children have to bear the brunt of their parents voting Labour in Scotland. Let’s hear this shouted out loud by any SNP politicians appearing anywhere in the media today.
ReplyDeleteAlba believes in lifting the cap.
DeleteIndependence supporters voting Labour just shows how short people’s memories are and the gaslighting that goes on in the colony of Scotland. We have a long way to go to counteract over 300 years of colonisation even for people who say they want independence.
DeleteSome will be voting for other policies that are more attractive than those offered by SNP. Knowing that the SNP are reluctant to fight for independence in a meaningful way means you have to weigh up other policies on offer. I can't vote SNP now because of their introduction of juryless trials. This is a fundamental change to our justice system. Similarly the removal of not proven verdicts is a big and unnecessary change. Some people might support these changes but really there should have been a proper consultation process with the public. And if such changes we're to be made why not a complete overhaul? No one can plead 'not proven' - juries find ithat verdict. In the USA there are three pleas available guilty, not guilty and no contest. Why not bring that in? It's because the agenda is not to introduce an improvement to our justice system but simply to increase guilty verdicts. So, that might be why independence supporters don't vote SNP.
DeleteIt could also be because they are fed up with SNP lies or SNP incompetence there's plenty of them around.
This is the first election I didn't vote SNP. My vote is there waiting for someone to say defacto independence election but they didn't say it. Now they say hold back or suspend independence - not getting my vote with that strategy. And that in itself shows the party is more concerned with gathering votes than achieving independence, like Labour wanting to win rather than change society. My whole family is SNP (used to be Labour when labour was part of a movement) and can't vote for either of them now. The choice we have is 'Labour the party of business' or SNP the party that represents nothing.
I saw the red hot class warriors on BBC Newsnight singing the praises of two child cap. That didn't take them long.
DeleteThe polls got it wrong with Labour. They won 33.7% and no where near 39% as this poll suggests they are in now. I don't know who or what they are polling but Labour and the Silly Dems are hugely unpopular and polls like this only embolden them into a false narrative that they are more popular than they really are.
ReplyDeleteThey got 6 votes for every 5 the SNP got. No massive endorsement .
DeleteBut the SNP must do better by pushing the case fae Indy mair.
Don't know why there's so many English/ Britnats/ unionists posting on here . I suppose they think they'll fool us.
England really is the land of Dope and Tory - even when they vote Labour !
1 in 5 of the electorate voted Labour. That’s hardly popular. Quite the opposite. And support for Independence is not the same as support for SNP. You do understand that?
DeleteReally? The biggest single reason voters voted for Labour was to get the Tories out! The 18.7% of the total electorate who voted Labour mostly did so in order to get rid of something and not what Labour offered. That huge haul of seats Labour won is shallow, extremely shallow. Just think about it, 83% of UK voters did not bother to vote for Labour. You're lucky if 5% of the total electorate voted Labour because of that's what they wanted. Shallow extremely shallow vote Labour got
DeleteI don't quite understand James's point. But he is generally very astute on polls so I may be missing something.There almost certainly was considerable tactical voting in the GE which may indeed have explained a drop[in their share as supporters, who will tell a pollster they support Labour, nonetheless switch to another party in their constituency to get the Tories out.
ReplyDelete