Being an unreconstructed leftie, I would have felt a pang of regret if Venezuela had ceased to be a socialist country, but there's no point pretending that the result of the presidential election yesterday was anything other than fraudulent - the evidence is overwhelming. Of course if anyone suggests that an election in the UK may be rigged, they're always dismissed as a tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist, and indeed I had little time for the suggestions that the indyref was stolen, because there was simply no evidence at all to support that. Nevertheless, this might be an appropriate moment to draw your attention to an extraordinary observation made by Professor John Curtice a few weeks ago. To be clear, he's not suggesting UK elections have been rigged, he's just identifying how the system is theoretically wide open to abuse -
"In most countries, before anyone would dare let a ballot box leave the polling station, they would want the votes to be counted. Because the moment it leaves the polling station, who knows what might happen to it on the way to its supposed destination? Maybe it won't make it, maybe it will get stuffed, etc, etc, right? So for most countries that is a crucial part. In our case we go 'Oh it's fine. We'll put a ballot box in a boat between Eday and the mainland on Orkney in the middle of winter and it's absolutely fine, you know, we'll have a little police car on it to make sure everything is OK', and we expect all these ballot papers to happily arrive unstuffed, safe arrival, right?"
Everyone knows the Tories introduced photo ID in the hope that supporters of other parties would be prevented from voting, but their nominal excuse was that they were trying to stop electoral fraud. Perhaps it's time to call that bluff and start demanding that votes should be counted in polling stations, which would be a more important safeguard. However, an even bigger weakness in our system is postal voting on demand, and if fraud does occur on any sort of significant scale, that would almost certainly be the place to look for it. There's probably a grey area where people are actually filling in their own ballot paper, but without any secrecy and under tremendous pressure to vote in a particular way from someone watching over them as they do it - perhaps a family member or a party activist.
Is it best to vote both votes SNP this time, if we believe SNP will win quite a lot fewer constituency seats?
ReplyDeleteWasn't it said multiple times in the comment section of this blog a month ago that 2026 is the time when we can lend our second vote to another party but for the General Election we all needed to get behind the SNP?
DeleteAlways the same, isn’t it? Does “socialism tomorrow!” ring a bell?
DeleteDo you want an SNP government or a Labour one? If SNP then it will be important to vote both votes SNP, assuming Labour win many of the constituency seats.
DeleteSo those who said multiple times that we didn't need to give both votes to the SNP in 2026 were just bullshitting in an attempt to get votes in 2024?
DeleteIf more had voted SNP in 2024 those comments would have been valid but they didn't.
DeleteThe voters failed you? With that attitude, there’s a long way to go before you hit rock bottom.
Deletewho else are you going to vote for? Unless, it's the Greens or SNP, it's almost certainly a waste.
DeleteThe 25,000 folk who vote for the "Others" is fair enough on principle, don't doubt it, vote for who you want. Also, it's unlikely to make a difference. Make up your own mind.
How about SNP for vote 1 and Alba for vote 2?
DeleteThis might work - Alba say it can lead to a pro-indy supermajority which sounds promising.
Delete"Alba say it can lead to a pro-indy supermajority which sounds promising." I think this only works if SNP does well enough in the constituency ballot. Safer to vote both SNP.
DeleteCheck and see who will be at the top of the lists. My expectation is that it will be the continuity candidates that lost their jobs at the General Election.
DeleteFairliered
Deletethose positions will be important but SNP has a set of criteria-based and rule-based processes for those positions to be determined. It certainly will not be a matter of John Swinney deciding.
who else are you going to vote for? Unless, it's the Greens or SNP, it's almost certainly a waste.
DeleteUnless a seat is won by a single vote, your vote was a waste in any case. If causing Alba to fail to win a seat by 999 votes instead of 1000 is a waste, so is causing the Greens to win a seat by 1001 votes instead of 1000
Keaton
DeleteHardly. Your vote either has a reasonable chance of producing a victory or it doesn't.
Greens and SNP as things stand, are the only pro indy parties we can reasonably say can win seats.
Vote for what you believe in, I hate tactical voting but the reality is the above re parties chances.
The more first votes party 1 gets, the less effective a second vote for party 1 will be.
DeleteWhat happened with the SNP in 2011, when they won a landslide majority was because so few people voted for the unionist three, or for less well known parties, that the SNP effectively got a clean sweep.
People are more knowledgeable now about how the AMS works so one vote Labour second Tory would be an effective counter to both votes SNP.
The counter to that is first vote SNP, second vote for a pro indy party of your choice. The two most likely options to succeed in that regard being Scots Greens and Alba.
If enough people do that, then the unionist parties will get drowned out and annihilated.
Even if SNP are less strong than before on constituency vote?
DeleteHardly. Your vote either has a reasonable chance of producing a victory or it doesn't.
DeleteWell, yes: it doesn't. The winner of a Scottish Parliament seat has never been determined by a single vote
Vote for what you believe in, I hate tactical voting but the reality is the above re parties chances.
Exactly. Since the result is almost certainly going to be the same no matter how you vote, you might as well vote for your most favoured option regardless of that option's chances of actually winning anything
The SNP has been very clear that it's both votes SNP.
DeleteYou expect a Political Party to say: 'You don't need to vote for us'?
DeleteMaduro’s error: forgot to rig the opinion polls. Consistency is key!
ReplyDeleteNow I come to think of it, the whole false narrative that “indyref was stolen from us!” “they sent postal ballots down to England!” might never have found traction if it weren’t for that single poll showing a majority for Yes on the dawn of indyref. It really shifted the narrative, even in the mainstream, and surely boosted turnout for No on the day itself.
DeleteThat and 'The Vow'.
DeleteThat joint statement by David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, promising more powers for Scotland in the event of a No vote could have been enough to sway many who were on the fence.
There were two polls showing a Yes lead (one from ICM four or five days before polling day had Yes ahead by 54% to 46%), and there were any number of polls putting Yes on around 49%. The YouGov poll wasn't really that much of an outlier, however much people pretend it was.
DeleteFair enough, two polls. It was a decade ago and I was only just tuning in right before the referendum anyway. Until then I thought Yes hadn’t a chance in hell. Those late polls really caught my attention.
DeleteThe mood shift was definitely real.
there were 3 polls then showing a Yes lead out of how many polls?
DeleteIt's clear enough to me Yes was always unlikely and that support has increased since 2014. That said, it's not increased by enough to change the narrative that we are a divided nation.
Regarding the UK government not granting a referendum if they think they’d lose, in theory the government is obliged to grant Northern Ireland a referendum if the Secretary of State for NI judges it to be likely that there would be a vote in favour of reunification with the Republic. It’s hard to see how this judgement could be informed by anything other than polling. Perhaps we need to be pushing the line that this should also be the case for Scotland and independence. If that argument can be won now then it would set the stage for the time when that mythical sustained lead in the polls is finally achieved.
DeleteThen again there was a sustained lead across many polls for a good year or so during the pandemic and that magically doesn’t seem to count as sustained for many unionists. No doubt they’ll try shifting the goalposts and say the lead needs to be sustained for a generation or more!
The counter argument could again make reference to the Good Friday Agreement which makes no explicit requirement for there to be a sustained majority in favour of reunification. What’s sauce for the Northern Irish goose is sauce for the Scottish gander.
They have been pushing that argument on deaf ears.
DeletePeople don't want to hear it but that GFA was the result of a tragic circumstances emanating from inter communal violence and death.
Scots just aren't in the same ball park even though we're arguably more of a nation than Ireland ever was.
In Northern Ireland there is a social/community division that Scotland does not have.
Delete"Perhaps we need to be pushing the line that this should also be the case for Scotland and independence".
DeleteThough where that falls down: What motivation would the UK Government have to make that change?
They're not idiotic & would know what our ultimate intention is. It's in their best interest to do nothing & there's nothing we can do to force their hand.
some general observations
ReplyDeleteIf there is no exit poll it was rigged
If there is no photography of your own ballot allowed, it was rigged
If there was, at the time, a world record proportion of postal votes, it was rigged
If the counters mix in the postal votes with the normal ones, rather than providing a separate count, it was rigged as there is no reason to do this, other than to prevent someone detecting, it was rigged
If you had no external international observers, it was rigged
If someone seems to know the result before the count, maybe they did, because it was rigged
If a media person uses the term "late surge from the silent majority" it was rigged
If they stop the count, for no good reason, leave the ballots unattended for hours, then come back later, it was rigged
If "all the polls were wrong", it was rigged
If there is no local count and boxes resealed, it was rigged
If the boxes disappear and re-appear, they can be rigged
If the boxes are not transparent, without holographic seals, they can be stuffed, i.e. rigged
If there is no mechanism for voters to check their vote was counted for who they voted for, it can be rigged
Statistical anomalies are a major smell of rigging; luckily for the riggers, no one understands numbers
If you were running a vote clean, why put in strange rules where you could be accused of cheating
If you think "this vote can't be rigged" because you can't spot the ways it could be done, you need to take advice from people who are good at it - you don't know how magic tricks are done, but there are experts who know how to trick you; rigging is not any different
In an ideal world there would have been an exit poll to help flag up any anomalies, but the idea that any election or referendum without an exit poll is by definition rigged is pretty obvously ridiculous. And sometimes the polls just are wrong, as they were in 1970 and 1992.
DeleteNot to mention everyone and their Mum believing Hillary Clinton was going to win the 2016 US election. It would be surprising to say the least if it was rigged for Trump to win.
DeleteThe Americans have their own problems thanks to that awful electoral collage of theirs fiddling the result. Hillary and Gore won easily in votes cast. It’s not even particularly close.
Delete12.19: A ridiculous post which says more about the poster.
DeleteYes, i'm very uneasy about polling providing an analysis that is self perpeutating.
DeleteAsh Regan for FM. How did she get elected again?
ReplyDeleteI don't want to be one of the conspiracy theorists. I'll accept that 2014 was a loss, but I remember a report from Labour activists (not SNP) from Labour for Independence in Ayrshire who were sure from their own 'on the ground' experience that YES had won. They reported that even in the halls the majority was easily for YES. That was until a van arrived with postal votes. The sort of ones Ruth Davidson had already counted if you recall. It was an unusual report from the activists because they felt sure that it was rigged in favour of NO just a whole series of NO votes waiting to be deployed when necessary.
ReplyDeleteWell, you have a point! But it was an unexpected report and the style of it was unusual. As far as I recall the guys were long time Labour activists and elderly.
DeleteNonsense. Obviously never been in a count on your life. The postal votes get done first.
DeleteWhen I worked in a shop he clothes were tagged with a breakable lock upon opening. If that lock was opened it would spray an ink. Can't be just attach one of these, with no unlocking mechanism, so that at any point when the box is opened it's covered in ink.
ReplyDeleteWe already do banking and financial trading online. The technology is hard to fiddle, far more so than paper in a box. It’s battle tested with years of success, and billions at stake.
DeleteI’d like elections run that way, too. Let everyone vote online on election day, and keep a live running total so we can all see who is winning throughout the day to notice irregularities.
I think a live count would transform the game. What a boost for turnout when people can see their vote matters in a close contest. It would help smaller and newer parties especially, when people can see they’re viable on election day and can make their own choice in good conscience.
There's technology out there which could be utilised for this purpose as well. Blockchain technology for example due to its decentralised nature and cryptographic security would make it incredibly difficult to tamper with votes cast.
DeleteIf you want to look at ways UK voting could potentially be rigged then proxy votes by the residents of care homes is one of the places to look.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe it was rigged in 2014 other than the state broadcaster being against independence.
ReplyDeleteGlasgow felt Yes and was Yes.
Yes had all the enthusiasm. I’m sure most places felt Yes to canvassers. The trouble is that quiet votes also count.
DeleteDundee also was yes but recently elected Labour MPs.
DeleteNo it didn't! The SNP held both of the Dundee seats. Have you been reading the Courier or something?!
DeleteOops. Thanks for the correction.
DeleteThere’s simply no was to know the the referendum was rigged. What we do know is that they had the means and the motive to do it, so I see no particular reason for ruling it out. Anyone witnessing the daily murder of children in Palestine with the blessing of the British state has got to ask themselves what would prevent the same people from rigging a domestic election? Their conscience and sense of decency?
ReplyDeletePersonally I think it was not rigged.
DeleteVote Labour to kill off pensioners and workers.
ReplyDeletepublic sector pay
DeleteToday's news is the best thing that could happen to Scotland
ReplyDeleteMaybe now the people of Scotland will see the point of not voting union
What news?
DeleteNot really news but a truism. Labour lied.
ReplyDeleteWhat about?
Delete£20 billion - but you know that. You can add to it.
DeleteThey never claimed that the economy was in a good state and didn't break any promises today.
DeleteAnother lie
DeleteI didn't expect it to start going wrong for Labour this quickly. Even some of their client journalists seem annoyed by this
DeleteThe public sector pay increases are worthwhile.
DeleteI believe elections here are rigged a lot... Nothing at all will ever change my mind on this
ReplyDeleteOh
And why on earth are voters given a PENCIL ✏️ to make their selection??
Easier to erase and change maybe?
Everytime I vote, I ask them for a black pen 🖋️ and I take a photo of my voting paper to try to make sure it won't be altered
How would the photo be used to ensure that outcome?
DeleteThey say with the ink of a pen when you fold the ballot to put it into the box the ink could potentially smudge other parts of the ballot resulting in it being spoilt.
DeleteThere's no possibility of that happening with a pencil.
Well done IFS and your idiot pals. WFP? The old can do without. Continued austerity? Stop whinging you voted for it. They actually told you they were going to do it.Take a bow you utter arseholes. Kid Starver thanks you.
ReplyDeleteContinued austerity maybe, but nothing like what we’d experience if we gained independence.
DeleteMost people accept independence would result in austerity on steroids for a considerable number of years, but of course, it would be a price worth paying.
You sir at 7.07pm are an obnoxious liar. ifs never said to vote for any unionist party at the UKGE.
Delete7:07 Thinks anyone who isn't one of the cult is a unionist. There's no reasoning with these people, they'll see the SNP eat itself alive by 2026 and still blame the voters.
DeleteWell done IFS and your idiot pals. WFP? The old can do without. Continued austerity? Stop whinging you voted for it. They actually told you they were going to do it.Take a bow you utter arseholes. Kid Starver thanks you.
DeleteDo you think Labour wouldn't be in government or would be acting in any way differently if the SNP had won every seat in Scotland? What are you actually saying here
But they'd be able to proclaim that "Scotland deserves better than this!" but then do absolutely nothing to change the status quo for the next 5 years.
DeleteAnon at 9.19. Have you been sleeping. SNP lost 15per cent of their vote thanks to the bloody nose tactic propounded by IFS and others. Liar appears more accurate when applied to you. And stupid of course.
DeleteKeaton. Crystal clear what I am saying. If you don’t understand the impact on public perception and support for Indy of losing so many MOs you may be part of the problem. Labour spelt out what they were going to do and now are doing it with no meaningful Scottish opposition presence in Westminster. And followings this the devolved parliament in Holyrood is being stripped of powers on an ongoing basis. IFS and others like him bear some the responsibility for this.
DeleteQuick question: Are the SNP themselves to blame at all?
DeleteIt's hard to believe a 15% drop is purely down to tactical voting by disgruntled Yes supporters. If anything I'd be surprised if that group by themselves made any significant contribution to the decline.
Anon at 7.07pm and 11.42am - you are the same moronic troll who likes to post lies about me so that makes you a liar. Stop trolling and lying and miraculously people will stop calling you a liar and a troll.
DeleteI NEVER "propounded" a "bloody nose tactic" and I NEVER said anyone should vote Labour or Tory or any British party. You know that because I have called you out on your deliberate lies before. That makes you a liar.
It would have made no difference if EVERY person in Scotland voted SNP to the end result. England gets what England wants and England wanted Starmer.
That makes you a moron for suggesting otherwise.
I bear no responsibility for what happened to the SNP vote. The responsibility lies with the SNP members and Sturgeon's crooked gang.
In summary, anon you are moronic liar and a coward who trolls people.
A wee reminder for numpties with short memories. In 2015 the SNP get 56 MPs out of 59 in Scotland. A year later in 2016 England votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes to remain. England tells Scotland you are leaving and it disnae matter you voted 62% to remain and you have 56 SNP MPs. The SNP response is the phoney retort by Blowhard Blackford saying Scotland will not be taken out of the EU against its will. Oh and Sturgeon prioritising trying to save the UK from the consequencies of leaving the EU like the good little Britnat helper she is.
DeleteThe SNP like Labour have been infiltrated and taken over by people who do not share the original core objectives of the parties.
Cowardly lying moronic troll at 8.17pm now sounds as if he is 17 years old.
Delete" Stop whinging you voted for it" - anon at 7.07pm - sounds to most reasonable people as an accusation of voting Labour but to a moronic lying teenager I guess you can try and kid on it isnae.
Just been on holiday in Scotland getting plenty of sunshine. More than likely you are the teenager in your bedroom.
Ifs regularly posted that if you vote Labour or Tory you have the blood of the children of Gaza on your hand but this anon troll seems to think people will believe his nonsense.
DeleteSo does pensioner Southport ( England) now get the same cold weather benefit at the same time as the pensioner in Lerwick, Kirkwall, Aviemore etc. (north of Engerland)? Had to smile that my “Labour all my life” Mother in law has had to take some stick from her grown up grandchildren who are all independence and social aware supporters when she realised she no longer qualifies for winter fuel payment.
ReplyDelete"smile"
ReplyDeleteWonder if there are any socialists in the labour party living in Scotland who may think there is another way for a country to move forward. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5r2mk18k1o
ReplyDeleteLook how the SNP were smashed in the GE , same could happen in Holyroood 2026 , they will very probably will lose a lot of constituency seats , second vote will be crucial to get them a list seat!
ReplyDeleteAll down to voters!
DeleteExactly. If the SNP's failing, less people want them to remain in power, and the voting system reflects that.
DeleteTry different policies and different personnel. The votes are going bye-bye.
If you end up blaming the electorate for making the wrong decision rather than the political Party for running an ineffective campaign to entice people to vote for them then there's no reasoning with you.
DeleteIn addition to tax on private schools Labour will probably increase CGT and private pension tax relief for higher earners.
ReplyDeleteI recommend realising gains on assets and putting as much into your pension before budget day.
Red Morningside might have to vote Tory at this rate.
DeleteToken Tory here but good point James about the postal votes. They effectively remove remove the “secret ballot” element of voting which is essential for democracy I would say. Fair enough if you genuinely can’t make it to the polling station due to illness or being away or whatever, but just because you’re too lazy to get out and vote n the day isn’t good enough reason.
ReplyDeleteSurely very few do it because of laziness.
DeleteI don't know why everyone who is sick/absent/lazy doesn't just go with a proxy vote instead. Obviously has far less potential for shenanigans than postal as long as your proxy shares your politics
DeleteA lot do proxy.
DeleteA relative got me to proxy for them in the Brexit ref, as he was away on business. We were both Remain so it was easy.
DeleteIf he'd tried the same in Indyref, however, I don't think I could have cast his No vote for him! But he knew that!
Do you think you could not have been trusted?
DeleteOh ma sides!
ReplyDeleteToday’s headline in the National,
ReplyDelete“New Era Of Austerity “
Today’s austerity is nothing compared to what we’d experience if we ever become independent. It would pale into insignificance.
The vast majority of people accept as a given that independence would result in austerity on steroids for a considerable length of time, but would be a price worth paying.
Overall when you add together the public sector pay increases and the winter payments reduction, it is a net fiscal expansion.
DeleteScotland: the poor benighted land, cursed with an outsized wealth of fossil and renewable resources. Poor us. However will we cope!
Deleteyou could eliminate almost all rigging if you simply did away with the anonymity of the vote - then we can all do the arithmetic and check our vote was counted
ReplyDelete- no one is seriously worried about being attacked for voting one way or another; it's bullshit
So is VAt to rise set against inflation eating at folks savings? All they can do labour is raise costs but don’t call them taxes.
ReplyDeleteIndirect taxes, like VAT, are great because they hit the poor hard while wealthier swing voters don't hurt as much. Exactly what you want when you're Labour.
DeleteI think the only vat rises are to be on private schools.
DeleteI think…….so maybees aye, maybees naw. Away and check with your masters in London
ReplyDeleteVAT generally hits higher earners harder as it’s a tax on expenditure on “non-essential” items ie. disposable income.
ReplyDeleteSo, well off pensioners won’t get a nice little windfall when temperatures drop. Well boo-hoo. Happy enough for those in genuine need to keep getting it but a blanket handout to everyone was just nuts.
ReplyDeleteAye ,well aff pensioners like me . My OAP plus small private pension is less than 14000 . Too much for pension credit . I'm paying mair income tax and noo will get nae winter fuel allowance .
DeleteThe cost of the oil heating is prohibitive and worse still I can't get firewood at an economic price these last two years.
Austerity , as was pointed out by the SNP continues in oor energy rich country. Scotland has kept UK afloat for 50 years it is just continuing because folk are too stupid to realise.
The SNP has been supportive of pensioners.
DeleteJust shiver faster to keep yourself warm, you horrible old Jocks.
DeleteSNP have done a lot for old age pensioners.
Delete" SNP have done a lot for pensioners" - like what?
DeleteReduced their number by discharging thousands of Covid patients into care homes during the pandemic?
DeleteThe SNP put into the 2014 independence negotiation prospectus a commitment that they would negotiate for the Westminster would honour their fair share of implied payments to Scottish pensioners for those pensioners that that had in their working lives paid national insurance and tax into Westminster, demonstrating the SNPs commitment to old age pensioners.
DeleteSince Yes didn't win in 2014 how exactly has that helped pensioners?
DeleteIt doesn't inspire confidence quoting a commitment from a decade ago rather than anything tangible that's happened since.
By developing a really good social care policy:
Deletehttps://www.snp.org/policies/pb-how-is-the-snp-improving-social-care-services/
Though there are severe staffing issues in social care, with nearly 90% of providers struggling to recruit and retain workers. The promised National Care Service has been plagued by delays and significant budget cuts. Rising operational costs and economic uncertainties are further straining the system, making it hard to maintain quality services.
DeleteIt's one thing to develop a policy, it's something else putting it into practice. There's several examples of ineffective planning and execution... & that certainly doesn't help pensioners!
The SNP is fully committed to ironing out those issues.
DeleteTalks cheap, actions matter.
DeleteEvery Party in power in Europe at the moment likely say they're committed to tackling the issues they've facing. But it's what they actually do that matters & it's not like the SNP are new to the job.
SNP has always been clear that pensioners are a priority for them. SNP puts more into the health service which is important for pensioners.
DeleteHumza put pensioners front and centre of his speech in George Square at the Ineependence Rally in April. So they are, and should feel, included.
DeleteCould have sworn Humza's circumstances have changed since then.
DeleteGranted. But, my point was to demonstrate *SNP* commitment to old age pensioners -- John Swinney would have done the same.
DeleteGraeme McCormick explains why he withdrew from the leadership election in order to give John Swinney a free run:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRAcVdZuQsg
No harm to Graeme but he was never going to win although he made a point by putting his name in the ring.
ReplyDeleteIt reminds me of a novel I read lately about a waiter who became an astronaut. His friends and family mocked his ambition, but after he returned to Earth he was celebrated as a hero. A lesson to us all. A modern day fable. Or parable? ... if novel it be?
DeleteGraeme explains in the podcast what he and Swinney discussed beforehand withdrew.
DeleteJohn Drummond was very sniffy about SNP but Graeme seems like a nice guy and very supportive of SNP.
DeleteA bit like that tale about the marquis who stole the bishop's garter.
DeleteAt the very least it would have resulted in a debate and Party members would have been able to put questions to their potential leader and make clear what their priorities were.
DeleteIt's a shame SNP members never had that opportunity.
[Rolls eyes] We would never have had time for such a debate given that the general election was called a week layette.
DeleteDo you think Ash Regan is happy being in ALBA as the head of the Holyrood parliamentary party?
ReplyDeleteYes and in 2026 she could be Deputy First Minister in a coalition if Alba plays its cards right.
DeleteMy money is still on a Labour & Green coalition. Harvie would love nothing more than to get back into Government at any price.
DeleteGreens would lose support if they treated SNP badly like that by going in with Labour.
DeleteFantasy land right enough.
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling that there is a scotnat dislocation from reality. The SNP lost 75% of their MPs. Meanwhile, the Tories in Scotland lost one seat. It was a huge 'kick out the fucking SNP' vote. So, they keep their leadership and do a bit of navel-gazing. Wow. As for the great Alba Party phenemenon, Kenny McAaskill came 8th in Grangemouth/Alloa/Lower Atlantis.
ReplyDeleteI've seen a combination of:
Delete* The electorate voted to remove the Tories (despite them only losing 1 seat in Scotland).
* Disgruntled Yes supporters are to blame (despite it being incredibly unlikely they'd account for the 15% drop).
* John Swinney didn't have long enough as Leader (despite him being Deputy First Minister for 9 years, people know who he is).
Pretty much they keep blaming anyone and everyone except the SNP themselves for running a shit campaign & they don't think the SNP needs to reform or do anything differently. It's bonkers.
Don't forget the "They were only 5% behind Labour" line, that sounds better than "Their vote share was 15% lower than 2019".
DeleteIn FPTP seats are a poor indicator of vote shares.
DeleteThey were 15% doon on 2019 AND only 5% behind Labour
DeleteBaith are true . Let's try to be balanced , it wasna guid but no a complete disaster either .
But even 5% behind Labour could mean a unionist majority in 2026 . Certainly it will mean Independence is knocked back.
Question noo is how to reverse the decline?
Holyrood elections are stronger territory for SNP than Westminster elections. Expect a higher SNP vote share.
DeleteThat said SNP will need "both votes SNP" because they cannot rely to quite the same extent as previously on winning in the constituencies.
An acknowledgement that everything isn't fine and that the SNP can't just simply continue on with business as usual.
DeleteA serious discussion needs to take place, internal party reform, full engagement with Party members on the best way forward and offering an olive branch to the wider Yes movement. That Constitutional Convention for example needs to happen asap.
Instead we seem to have SNP supporters downplaying the result, insisting that no reforms are required and we just need to give John Swinney a chance, and they're back to demanding that we all vote SNP 1&2 in 2026. That's definitely not the best way forward and if that's the path the SNP are on then they will lose power in 2 years time.
I think realistically, we’re looking at a period in opposition for the SNP from 2026.
DeleteMaybe for the best, a chance to rebuild.
It was a really big 'kickout the fucking SNP' vote. Denial won't get them a subequent electoral vicrory.
Delete@5:11,
DeleteYou’re probably right. It was supposed to be “kick out the Tories” too. While that was the case in England, it certainly didn’t play out in Scotland.
SNP in fact did not do so badly in the election.
DeleteReally very close to Labour in terms of voter share, which can be recovered by Holyrood.
In FPTP, the seat counts can change dramatically even when a few percentage points are changed in vote share.
Even in terms of seats, however, it was actually the 5th best result in the SNP's long history.
So, not the total wipe out that the unionist media would have you believe.
The SNP was down 15% from 2019, that's more than a "few percentage points" change.
DeleteThe point is that a few percentage points does shift a lot of seats in FPTP, so that Holyrood is there to be won.
DeleteAnon at 4:31 is right.
DeleteDownplaying the results doesn't help anyone. We need to admit that the SNP has been a Party in decline for the past few years and a lot of work will be required to reverse it.
All hope isn't lost but the first stage of any recovery is firstly admitting that you have a problem.
The public are not interested in a party that wallows in introspection.
DeleteThe public aren't daft.
DeleteThey most certainly won't buy the "it wasn't as bad as you think" narrative and will outright laugh at & ridicule the "fifth best election result in its 90 year history" line like one of the comments below.
They appreciate honesty and if a Party is committed to change they may be open to it.
The SNP is very far from a party in decline as their membership clearly demonstrates, 25.000 in Salmond's time, over 100.000 in Sturgeon's first time as leader, currently 80.000
DeleteFor a Scotland only party where's this decline?
Notice I wrote Sturgeon's "first time" as leader
Who told you those membership numbers Dr Jim. Was it Murray Foote who had to resign for telling lies about the numbers?
Delete80,000? Try half that.
DeleteChrist there's no reasoning with people like the Anon @ 8:31PM.
DeleteComes across the same way as those who outright refused the possibility that the SNP would win less than 20 seats in the General Election and if you said they might you were just believing unionist MSM lies.
I really don't get those who have their head so far in the sand & then act surprised or spout some nonsensical line when the Party they support ends up losing. It's people like that who do more harm than good as instead of putting in the difficult work to actually help their party they instead choose to live in a fantasy land.
I am not entirely sure what the SNP election campaign was. Was it to try to rip up Kier Starmer posters? I doubt that anyone else felt so entitled.
DeleteAnon at 9.23pm - the fantasy land is the blog called Wee Ginger Dug where the SNP can do no wrong and Dr Jim calls home.
DeleteI seem to remember posts on SGP saying if the SNP only get single figure MPs in the election Swinney has to go. Well 9 MPs is single figures. The trouble is that they are running out of potential leaders that are loyal to Sturgeon's gang. You can call them faction if you prefer, but gang seems more appropriate to me.
Honest question: Who are they actually trying to convince that everything is fine?
DeleteDo they need to post such blatant nonsense on these blogs in order to keep the delusion alive in their own head? A blind man can see that the SNP is a party in decline, it would be funny if it wasn't so serious.
Another smear against the SNP allegedly misusing public funds dismissed as groundless today. BBC and MSM strangely silent on this, as are the usual suspects on here. Regrettably the damage has already been done.
ReplyDeleteThese allegations tend to be put about by SNP enemies in order to try to harm the party.
DeleteThey’d rather kick the ostrich with his head planted confidently in the ground?
DeleteIt’s definitely our job to defend the party, 5:21. They may be crooks but they’re Our Crooks and that’s what really matters!
DeleteThe SNP may not have done as well in this election as it did in the previous Westminster election of 2019 but still attained its fifth best election result in its 90 year history which is not as bad as painted in the unionist media.
DeleteThat's... one way to spin it I suppose.
DeleteMhairi Black should use that line in her Fringe show.
What smear are you talking about? There are so many it is hard to keep up. Is Cameron Downing a pal of yours? He got smeared with 6 years in the clink - ex SNP Equalities Officer.
DeleteAnon at 8.55.Take a look at yourself. Pathetic. And very revealing that you think immediately of a particular individual. Rather suggests he’s in your mind a lot.
DeleteAnon at 5.22. That is my point. And no shortage of those enemies on here.
DeleteIs ALBA still in existence or is going for a long slow death, blaming everyone else for not being them?
ReplyDeleteALBA held a recent conference in Dundee to discuss electoral strategy. So still very much alive!
DeleteThey have to check with their strategy consultants in Bath and the Tory guy in London
DeleteDr Kim does not like the Alba party. Amazingly in the dear old Dr’s world they are both an irrelevance and responsible for every disaster and mistake the SNP make. Go figure.
DeleteWould rather check with the guy in Bath than have arch unionist Murray 'The Vow' Foote as my Party CEO tbh.
DeleteAlba is the proverbial dead man walking. It will disappear when A S decides he has had enough.
DeleteTime for a new thread.
ReplyDeleteThat YI2 is a pussy
ReplyDeleteHe should point out that the handlers of the XL Bullies on WGD have until midnight to apply for an exemption for them There are some conditions for keeping them in Scotland
https://www.gov.scot/publications/xl-bully-dog-rules/
Tick tock
The question SNP members should be asking their leadership is why do you droll on about a democratic deficit when you should be shouting from the rooftops that Scotland is held prisoner by England. Scots have the right to self determination and the fact that this is being denied by England means Scotland is just another Westminster colony.
ReplyDeleteColonialism is fascism.
I haven't always agreed with you but you're right . I am an SNP member still but the party and leaders are too much in a colonial mindset, meekly accepting the status quo . When will we grow a backbone?
DeleteAlba gu brath
John Swinney has been clear what his constitutional preference is and so has the SNP as a whole. If there is not an independent Scotland it will not be for any lack of effort on the SNP's part.
DeleteIFS - your language and terminology is much too emotive and this is unhelpful in my opinion.
Rule Britannia
DeleteGod Save The King.
Land of Dope and Tory
Delete@11:55,
DeleteIt’s actually Land of Labour now and thankfully the utter lunacy of independence has been kicked even further into the long grass 😀
Great way of persuading non yessers by calling them facists!
DeleteAye there is always a daftie about. Thats you anon at 1.27pm. Where did I call any Scots fascists - for or against independence - nowhere.
DeleteAnon at 9.55am you are correct John REDACTOR MAN Swinney has been clear all his time in the SNP. He is a gradualist - which is code for devolutionist.
DeleteYour opinion is of a devolutionist and is unhelpful to the cause of freeing Scotland from colonial Westminster rule.
True you didn’t, but the implication is there.
DeleteIf insulting voters is all we’ve got to come round to our view, we’ll never achieve our objective.
But carry on if it makes you feel better/empowered.
Anon at 1.54pm. the implication is only in your daftie mind. English colonials in Westminster will not have a vote.
DeleteAre you saying colonialism isnae fascism?
IFS,
DeleteThe majority of the country don’t want freed from Westminster though!
BETTER TOGETHER.
You speak for a minority.
Actually, Anon @ 2:45, out of the last 100 polls only 3 had a majority for the Union, and in 5 it was evens. In all the rest most people either wanted INDEPENDENCE or were undecided.
DeleteTo put it another way, 97% of the last 100 polls did NOT show a majority for the Union.
Next
"If there is not an independent Scotland it will not be for any lack of effort on the SNP's part."
Deletelol
No, seriously what tangible efforts have they actually done? Beyond speeches and "commitments" what actual actions have they taken to move the cause forward?
4:08 Laughable isn't it? The SNP haven't taken a single step towards independence since Salmond resigned.
DeleteNot true. You part of the disinformation service. Surely he’s so good he should get elected and lead us all into independence land. Still the public spoke in that his party and all of his Mp’s got trounced at the ballot box. C’mon 1.5% Embarrassing
Delete"Not true"
DeletePlease expand on that, we're waiting in anticipation on everything the SNP has done to move us closer to independence in the last decade.
Anon 4.08PM.
DeleteYour response seems surely much too dismissive in light of the many years of campaigning and arguing for independence, in which the SNP as a party has energetically engaged, under the very strong leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, Humza Yousaf, and now John Swinney.
Are we living in alternative reality where the SNP haven't dropped to 30% support, lost tens of thousands of members, lost 39 MPs, are struggling financially, are still under active police investigation and are at serious risk of losing power in 2026 due to their own incompetence?
DeleteIf all of that has happened under "very strong leadership" I'd hate to see failure!
Anon 4:56 PM
DeleteYour comments are wide of the mark.
How can we be a colony with appropriate representation at the national parliament, have our own parliament, receive net income from our neighbours, are not discriminated against by our neighbours and are majority populated by born Scots?
DeleteThe 2024 General Election in Scotland wasn't a vote to kick out the Tories (they only lost 1 seat here & that one can be blamed on Douglas Ross), it was a vote against the SNP.
DeleteA 15% drop isn't a small one & under different circumstances a defeat of that magnificent would warrant the resignation of the Party leader & a period of self-reflection.
The downplaying of the result & the sheer incompetence/countless scandals of the last few years in particular is nonsensical. If you genuinely believe we've had a stable period under strong leadership I've got a few ferries to sell you.
From the Heald:
ReplyDelete"The largest Scottish freshwater peal is set to go for sale at auction almost 60 years after it was first discovered. "
Ding Dong!
“INDEPENDENCE campaigners have announced a counter-protest after far-right figures said they would hold a “pro-UK” demonstration in Glasgow.“
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/MMQ9E
How utterly stupid can you get. Leave the extremists alone.
Dunna fash yersel , indy supporters are too feart onywhy.
DeleteOnywhy? Awfy polite. Surely it’s oneyway.
ReplyDeleteWeel we say it like that but I've no got ma Scots dictionary handy. That's the trouble with being a colony we're no educated in oor ain leid.
Delete