I've finally had a chance to read through the detailed results of the YouGov MRP poll, which flatly contradicted the MRP poll from More in Common showing the SNP on course for an overall majority of Scottish seats. However, even YouGov have the SNP on seventeen seats, and it's certainly possible to look at that in a glass-half-full sort of way, because this is an election in which the SNP could theoretically be reduced to only a couple of seats if the wheels really come off. Furthermore, there are a further twelve seats in which YouGov have Labour nominally ahead but are actually rated as "tossups" in which Labour and the SNP are virtually level and thus have a roughly equal chance...
The SNP are just one point behind in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
The SNP are just four points behind in Central Ayrshire
The SNP are just four points behind in Kilmarnock and Loudon
The SNP are just five points behind in North Ayrshire and Arran
The SNP are just two points behind in Alloa and Grangemouth
The SNP are just two points behind in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
The SNP are just one point behind in Edinburgh North and Leith
The SNP are just four points behind in Glasgow North
The SNP are just one point behind in Glasgow North East
The SNP are *level* with Labour in Glasgow West on the rounded percentages (Labour presumably have a very small lead on the unrounded numbers)
The SNP are just one point behind in Glenrothes and Mid Fife
The SNP are just three points behind in Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Additionally, there are two seats with the Tories ahead of the SNP, and one seat with the Lib Dems ahead of the SNP, which are also regarded as tossups - although as the Lib Dem seat is Orkney & Shetland, it's perhaps hard to take that one seriously. But even if you just add the twelve Labour-SNP tossups to the SNP tally, that gets you to 29, which is the exact number required for an overall majority of seats in Scotland.
Now, of course the whole point about tossups is that they're not all going to come down in the same way, and there are also several seats with the SNP in the lead which are rated as tossups. But it would only take a relatively small recovery for the SNP for many of these seats to cease to be tossups and to move into the "lean SNP" column. So even if YouGov are right and More in Common are wrong, which is a big if, this election is all to play for.
Incidentally, it looks like the MRP polls are going to be worse than useless for unusual constituency races like Na h-Eileanan an Iar. YouGov's projection for that seat is -
Labour 38%
SNP 32%
Conservatives 10%
"Others" 6%
Greens 6%
Reform UK 4%
Liberal Democrats 3%
Opinions differ on whether Angus MacNeil has a genuine chance of holding his seat as an independent, but it's safe to assume his support is far higher than 6%. Presumably what is happening here is that YouGov have nowhere near enough respondents from the Western Isles and so are grafting on a particularly large number of respondents from "similar constituencies" - but the problem is there are no similar constituencies to the Western Isles. Either that, or some respondents in the Western Isles are still assuming MacNeil is the SNP candidate.
In a similar vein, there's no sign of YouGov picking up a personal vote for Neale Hanvey in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, although that's less implausible because it's the sort of constituency where the personal vote matters less.
* * *
These are literally the only three photos I took last night in Airdrie, but here they are..
Very encouraging.
ReplyDeleteMRP is multi-level regression and post-stratification. It is not a poll in the usual sense even though it uses some polling data. It doesn't take, for example, local circumstances into account. It remains to be seen how accurate this approach is. For now take these seat-level projections with a large siberian salt mine.
ReplyDelete"MRP poll" is now a commonly used phrase even among polling companies themselves, so for simplicity's sake I'm not going to shy away from it.
DeleteGood to know you are at least aware of this issue.
DeleteYouGov’s MRP beat all the traditional polls in 2017, as I recall, when Teresa May was meant to blow Corbyn away but the voters chose a different story. That’s when many of us first heard of it.
DeleteI am questioning its accuracy at individual seat level not at aggregate level over all seats.
DeleteLooked like a great night at Josh Robertson's event last night. Really well attended and a fantastic mix of ages. Looks like he'll have a really successful campaign
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/JR4Indy/status/1797743891443265984
If Alloa and Grangemouth don't go SNP we've got a problem. I'm from the area and it's as scottish nationalist as they come. that's not to say it's a shoe in but if we're struggling there, we've issues.
ReplyDeleteWhen Grangemouth goes the way of Ravenscraig, expect the people to go radge about it!
DeleteThe Find Out Now MRP poll had a very interesting total for Others pretty much exclusively in Scotland. With all other major parties listed Others ranged from 4-9% - who could these "others" be if they arent Alba?
ReplyDeleteThat's very naive, if I may say so.
DeleteRe a 'personal vote for Neale Harvey', I think that such a thing would be negligible. There was a huge amount of resentment from SNP supporters in the local area when he 'jumped ship' and I doubt he will access many votes from that source.
ReplyDeleteNot for the first time, I have to remind an SNP drone that Hanvey had been disowned by the SNP at the election so in essence he won it on a personal vote. Of course, the SNP hadn't the time to put up an alternative candidate to him so who knows what difference that would have made. Nevertheless, they did advise SNP supporters not to vote for him and he won anyway.
DeleteMost folk voting there in July won't remember who he was or what happened last election. They'll look down the ballot for the party they've chosen to vote for, as most of us always do.
DeleteAnd yes, I expect that will produce a smaller vote for Hanvey than Labour's majority when they take the seat from the sinking SNP.
Not for the first time, I have to remind an SNP drone that Hanvey had been disowned by the SNP at the election so in essence he won it on a personal vote. Of course, the SNP hadn't the time to put up an alternative candidate to him so who knows what difference that would have made. Nevertheless, they did advise SNP supporters not to vote for him and he won anyway.
DeleteQuite a coincidence that the only independent candidate who "won it on a personal vote" in the whole of Scotland had "SNP" next to his name on the ballot
I don't know how he was listed on the ballot as I never saw a ballot paper (I doubt you did either) but the point is that the SNP had publicly told their supporters not to vote for him. As it happens, I doubt any politician carries much of a personal vote regardless of how they appear on the ballot.
DeleteAre you the same Anonymous as before? I ask because they said NH won it on a personal vote, but you're saying no politician has much of a personal vote
DeleteYes same one. No I don't really believe he has that much of a personal vote. However, the fact remains that the SNP advised against voting for him so something else was going on in that seat. Incidentally, are you sure he was described as SNP on the ballot? (Genuine question because I have no idea).
DeleteThere's comfort in that poll so the SNP need to plan ahead for the 7-way debate and the final two weeks.
ReplyDeleteWith Farage in the ring John Swinney needs to scare Scotland into sticking with the SNP because its obvious England is going that way if not now, then the next election once Reform and the Tories meld into one party
Against Starmer JS needs to focus on his awful Gaza stance and how he is giving the *very bad people* in Netanyahu's govt encouragement and to point out that both the IFS and IMF say that there's a hole in the finances.
Encouraging to see Swinney doing well.
ReplyDeleteHe really has hit the ground running!
Well done team SNP for installing him.
Heaven forfend they ever elect another leader. It’s so much better when they just install one, like thy did with Nicola. Installations all the way!
DeleteHe hit the ground running again? Is he on his 2nd or 3rd lap now?
DeleteOne the whole I think the leader of a party of govt should be installed or elected from among MPs or MSPs. In opposition the question is less pertinent but again probably better to ensure that whoever is selected leader is acceptable to the MPs/MSPs.
DeletePollsters have a weird addiction to predicting that Orkney and Shetland will change hands, when literally every sentient being on the face of the planet knows that it won't. You'd think they'd update their methodology
ReplyDeleteThere will be a snap pole tonight at 10pm by YouGov.
ReplyDeleteAw, poor fella. Broken his leg?
DeleteReally smarts when you snap your pole
DeleteThat will likely focus on the debate and who people thought "won". Presumably the people voting will have watched the thing.
DeleteI guess pole is the new your. Scottish education - best in the world
DeleteThat would be 7 too many for the charlatans.
ReplyDeleteAs I posted earlier: electoral calculus gives maths a bad name! It’s more like roulette than integration.
ReplyDeleteThe polls however are quite clear the SNP are in big trouble. The scale of their meltdown remains to be seen on the night.
Away and waggle your union jack
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAgain, could I please appeal to people not to post anonymously. I've just deleted several posts that I assumed to be concern trolling from KC, but it's not impossible one or two of them were genuine commenters.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone think that the STV 'debate' would be vastly more interesting if any of the participants were actually actually standing for election?
Delete