More in Common carried out a snap poll on last night's BBC debate. On the question of who won, Stephen Flynn was only fourth among viewers across Britain, which is perhaps inevitable given that 85% of the population are in England, and they would have been paying closer attention to the parties they can actually vote for. But among the subsample of viewers in Scotland, the result wasn't even close.
In your view, who won the debate? (More in Common, Scottish subsample)
Stephen Flynn (SNP) 41%
Nigel Farage (Reform UK) 20%
Carla Denyer (Greens) 10%
Angela Rayner (Labour) 8%
Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrats) 4%
Rhun ap Iorweth (Plaid Cymru) 0%
Penny Mordaunt (Conservatives) 0%
Interestingly, even among the Britain-wide sample there are supplementary findings that confirm the strength of Stephen Flynn's performance.
Percentage of Britain-wide sample who say each participant did a "very good" or "quite good" job in the debate:
Stephen Flynn (SNP) 50%
Carla Denyer (Greens) 50%
Angela Rayner (Labour) 48%
Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrats) 47%
Nigel Farage (Reform UK) 45%
Rhun ap Iorweth (Plaid Cymru) 38%
Penny Mordaunt (Conservatives) 29%
Nevertheless, Farage was the headline winner of the debate in the Britain-wide poll, and in combination with Sunak's D-Day blunder, that's a complete disaster for the Tories that will put an end to any hopes that Sunak had shored up the Tory core vote in the ITV head-to-head debate with Starmer. Reform UK looks set now to seriously eat into the Tory vote, and although the impact of that will be more limited in Scotland, it may just help the SNP to win a few seats that would otherwise have gone to the Tories. Every little helps, as Tesco would say.
I'd give the SNP a mark of 7 or 8 out of 10 for the way they've handled the debates and debate-related events until now. I had hoped that John Swinney would be brave enough to allow the more charismatic Kate Forbes and Stephen Flynn to deputise for him in some of the debates, and so far he's allowed Flynn to do that (with good results) but not Forbes. The SNP really will be missing a trick if they don't put up Forbes in at least one of the debates, because she can reach the parts that no-one else can reach. Polling suggests she's better regarded than Flynn, who probably puts off a certain segment of voters by seeming quite belligerent.
* * *
I've previewed the constituency race in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross for The National - you can read the piece HERE.
I thought that Rayner and Mordaunt turned their part into a 'stairheid rammy'. I hadn't in the past paid close atrengtion to Rayner, but what I saw of her last night left me with the impression that she is vastly overrated.
ReplyDeleteRayner and Mordaunt. The new Jolly Johann Lamont and Merry Mags Curran
DeleteRayner and Mordant were the stars of the show and quite fascinating. Each performed well given the situation.
DeleteYou're correct, Rayner is massively overrated. A consistently poor performer in the HoC.
DeleteShe's another of the UK's senior politicians who in any competitive real world organisation would be doing well to get to junior management level.
Penny Mordaunt does at least have some gravitas although she was on to a hiding with Sunak's D-Day blunder.
For me, Flynn did ok but no more than that. I've seen him at his best in the bear pit of PMQs. This was a different scenario and didn't quite suit his style imo.
Somewhat disturbing that such a "snake oil salesman" as Farage chimes so clearly to voters in England. In my opinion he didn't need an autocue for his closing piece because he didn't say anything.
ReplyDeleteHowever, it has been encouraging that both Swinney and Flynn have acquitted themselves well. Denyer has been good too.
Douglas Ross better watch out in the new NE seat. Farages clutch of weirds could easily take it with all the new Moravians there.
DeleteVery good debate by Flynn, now Forbes should go to the next debate
ReplyDeleteThe reason Swinney could not go to Friday's debate is that Starmer, Sunak, Davey were not there, it was for second tier leaders.
ReplyDeleteSwinney isn’t in Westminster. Do you not know this?
DeleteEr nor were a lot of the others.
DeleteHe’s talking about Sunak, Starmer and Davie. Did you two go to the same school? Lesson over. Off you toddle.
DeleteJohn Swinney was in France for d-day anniversary representing Scotland.
DeleteAnon at 12:51 pm -- you are IFS and I claim my £50. Oh, and how dare you tell people to leave this site.
DeleteI saw a graph showing satisfaction in the leaders' debate, where Farage had the highest positive cateogory rating but Flynn had the highest net positive rating (Farage had bigger negative). Not surprising the unionist media only spun it as a Farage victory, full stop.
DeleteAnon at1.27. How spectacularly wrong can you get? You seem not to have even gone to school! Try not taking yourself so seriously. No-one else does.
DeleteHe sees IFS everywhere he looks. Paranoid or lovestruck? You decide.😍
DeleteSNP doing as well as feasible under Swinney given the poor starting point and the unwanted Humza et al legacy of poor decision making and general incompetence. Tin eared Saint Nicola has a lot to answer for too.
ReplyDeleteScots Greens standing in so many seats will siphon off votes otherwise headed to SNP, without their shouty and deeply misguided party being actually competitive anywhere. Great job!
Not much need to worry too much about Alba (sorry) since it garners such a tiny fragment of the vote.
Can the SNP overcome their poor operating environment of legacy foul ups and unwelcome Green opponents splitting the vote?
Not sure but vaguely hopeful.
Brian
Just because Farage attracts a lot of attention doesn't make him a winner, it can also make him a laughing stock or figure of fun
ReplyDeleteLike Alex Salmond for example
My prediction fwiw is 20 SNP MPs returned.
ReplyDelete15-25 is perhaps the expected range. The higher end of that is a decent salvage job, the lower end is a very stark wake up call but JS to keep his job.
Other outcomes. Flynn will keep his seat but step down as Commons leader as it will be a less prominent role. Wishart, Blackford and Whitford into the Lords.
As far as I ken , it's still SNP policy NOT to send members to the lords.
DeleteSoar Alba
I really enjoy the blog, the analysis and comments are often thought provoking and helpful. Scottish Gaelic is a wonderful language. But Soar is not a word. Soar Alba is two random words. (And Soar is an English language word to boot, though so similar in spelling to the Gaelic word)
DeleteIt’s more like French: most of the adjectives go after the noun, and a small number are placed before the noun.
https://www.tiktok.com/@caldamac/video/6951783511686745349?lang=en
Apologies if you're being facetious but isn't 'Saor Alba' the Gaelic for Free Scotland? Or are you just pointing out that this poster has a habit of misspelling the Gaelic phrase?
DeleteHello my friend. I come from a Lochaber Gaelic speaking family so i come from a fraternal place of genuity.
DeleteNo, " Saor Alba" does not mean. Free Scotland. It means Joiner, Scotland.
I attached Calum Macleans elequont explanation on tik tok.
For "Free Scotland ", it works better as "Alba Shaor"
Thanks. It must be an urban myth that it means Free Scotland. I did check with Google translate and that came up as the English equivalent but who knows who is responsible for the Gaelic at Google😄
DeleteSaor Alba works as Free Scotland provided Saor is understood as a verb, so as an instruction, say Liberate Scotland. Alba Shaor means Free Scotland as a description of a Scotland which is Free.
DeleteThanks. That makes it clearer since I think in this case it is meant as an instruction or rallying call. I'm afraid I find Gaelic impenetrable in terms of grammar but I like to see people working to keep it alive in today's Scotland.
DeleteI see the second of four ferries being built in Turkey for Cal Mac has just launched.
ReplyDeleteAnybody heard any updates on when Glen Sannox is likely to enter service, or is it still too early to say?
Look! A squirrel!!
DeleteYou have asked this before, on several occasions, and you have had the position explained to you. There are three possibilities here. You are really stupid. You are an arsehole. You are a really stupid arsehole. I think you fall into category three. Best you concern yourself with the plight of your wee bestie Drossy boy. Found out again as a dishonest little grifter. His head is almost certainly rolling this time. Hopefully the police will be investigating, judging by comments from within his own party. They knew, but hoped no one else would notice. Oooft.
DeleteWho the hell is “Drossy”?
DeleteAnon at 10:30, I suspect you’re a sandwich short of the full picnic.
DeleteEncouraging comments today from John Swinney on Sky News that he is very strongly supporting Nicola Sturgeon’s contribution to the SNP's election campaign.
ReplyDeleteAccording to him, she is supporting a very wide range of different local SNP candidates around different constituencies in different parts of the country. He added that this is a good thing.
John Swinney also sated that he still works closely with Nicola Sturgeon, and that he strongly welcomes her participation in the campaign.
He says that Nicola Sturgeon has got a huge amount to contribute to the SNP.
All good.
Listened to the debate from last night. As already commented apron Stephen Flynn was good. One little point though. Scotland is not a devolved nation- it is a nation. Currently its administration isn’t but that’s what we hope to change. Never here England as being devolved.
ReplyDeleteEngland isn't devolved that is why!
DeleteAREN'T YOU FORGETTING THE "METRO MAYORS"? Anas Sarwar will NOT be pleased with you.
DeleteLord of the Slippers - your SNP range seems about right to me, perhaps a wee bit pessimistic, but certainly credible. What is your Lab range for Scottish seats?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Brian
Let's hope Luke Akehurst sets up re-education camps in North Durham to ensure ALL Jews go to shul. It can't be just about chicken soup.
ReplyDeleteSaw a lot of praise for Flynn on Twitter last night, from people beyond SNP circles and beyond Scotland. Also at least one person saying they'd now be switching from Labour to SNP.
ReplyDelete(I realise that some switchers from Labour to SNP might not be won over to independence, but see it as a way of electing a stronger opposition to Labour.)
I'd generally assumed it would be harder for SNP to reclaim voters heading for Labour, than to reclaim those intending not to vote. But in recent weeks, I've seen a number of avowed independence supporters quite adamant they would not vote rather than vote SNP. It's hard to judge numbers or proportions, of course. Time will tell.
Independence voters saying they would not vote rather than vote SNP is a case of cutting of your nose to spite your face. I do not understand stupidity like that.
DeleteAnon@ 6:24, I agree.
DeletePeople threatening not to vote and a split pro Indy vote, together with increased talk of tactical voting amongst unionists, I fear is the perfect storm.
It’s a crazy situation tbh, and I’m actually dreading the exit poll at 10pm on 4th July.
Its their other policies.
DeleteAnon@6:24 It's not stupidity if you no longer believe that the SNP is actively pursuing independence. Stupidity would be to keep banging your head off the SNP wall to no avail.
DeleteI understand you won't vote SNP, but for the benefit for those undecided who might be in a constituency with no alternative pro indy candidate, would you recommend they vote SNP, or if not, can you explain how a unionist MP gaining the seat (and actively opposing independence) would get us more swiftly and surely to independence?
DeleteLurker no more.- anon at 754 cunning plan is to allow the britnats to win. This will allow the unionists to graciously give up and offer us independence by the 5th July 2024. Why haven’t independence supporters realised earlier that this is where we have gone wrong before.?
DeleteI wouldn't presume to tell others how to vote if they believe in independence but I certainly wouldn't recommend the SNP if asked. I do resent being told how stupid I am because I'm not prepared to be led down yet another blind alley by the charlatans who have taken control of the party.
DeleteIf the SNP lose seats to the unionists at the election, that's their problem not mine. Perhaps if they hadn't wasted the last ten years slurping at the Westminster gravy, the voters wouldn't need persuading. Whatever the election result, I guarantee you we will be no closer to independence five years from now than we are today.
Why is gravy always used as the most motivating factor for politicians? I know it’s metaphorical but there’s tons of better foodstuffs available.
Delete920pm. If independence parties lose seats that’s all of our problem unless you are a unionist. Incidentally people are elected to positions. If you don’t like them get elected yourself. Are you a frustrated wannabe?
DeleteAnon, 9.20. Thanks for your answer. Yes no one is presuming to tell anyone how to vote and no one is calling anyone stupid. But I can't help noticing you have no plan, no positive suggestion to offer, which may be fine and not your problem. If you are a nihilist, that's fine, a perfectly respectable philosophical position.
DeleteBut I think it's telling that you say *whatever* the result, we will be no closer to independence. That confirms that there is no known preferable route, you don't offer any advantage to abstention, to spoiling the vote, or writing #EndTheUnion on one's ballot, nor even to vote for Alba or anyone else.
And there is, after all, no cunning plan to punish the SNP, to allow or precipitate a period of penitent reflection, and a further period of rebuilding and resurrection, or replacement of that party, which would get us to independence any faster, than if people just voted for the most likely pro-independence party to win any particular seat, and see where it takes us...
And there is, after all, no cunning plan to punish the SNP, to allow or precipitate a period of penitent reflection, and a further period of rebuilding and resurrection, or replacement of that party, which would get us to independence any faster, than if people just voted for the most likely pro-independence party to win any particular seat, and see where it takes us...
DeleteThe less nihilistic option is the one you've pretty much outlined here. Let the SNP get a fright in the hope that self preservation makes them take a more proactive approach to independence, and once it's clear that they're doing that, vote for them again.
Risks are that the "narrative" might become that no one cares about independence any more, and people sort of just go along with that and actually do stop supporting independence; or that the SNP might interpret the result as meaning that they were punished for being too independence-focussed. That's a pretty big risk if other independence parties do badly
Lurker, on this short thread alone I have been called stupid(6:24), a unionist(9:17, that's an old favourite for anyone not of the cult😁), and a frustrated wannabe(10:55). I'm afraid the SNP support remains in denial about the legitimate concerns of erstwhile supporters and nothing will change with that attitude. You're right, when it comes to the SNP, I'm a nihilist - tear it down and start again or watch as independence withers on the vine as it has done since 2014.
DeleteAnon4:35,sorry to hear that you have been insilted on line.I have some of the same concerns as you,but I dont agree on everything.Hopefully it is possible to disagree while still respecting the views of another.Tearing everything down is not without great risk.I would also say that I believe that we need independance quickly in order to deal with everything that concerns our population.For that reason,in spite of my frustrations,I will vote
DeleteSNP on the 4th July.My candidate who is an excellent constituency MP has stated that:
With independence,we can build a prosperous economy,provide our people with opportunities they deserve,and offer the support they need during difficult times.
No need for apology, it's no big deal. I was just replying to Lurker (who is always civil) and his assertion that nobody was calling anyone stupid. I agree we should all respect the other even if we disagree which is why I said I wouldn't presume to tell anyone how to vote but I'll give my honest opinion if asked.
DeleteIf you do not vote SNP own the result, which is a right wing austerity driven unionist party intent on dismantling devolution. Own it.
DeleteUnlike some who continue to tell others what to do and who to vote for😉
DeleteFew on here tell others what to do and who to vote for. IFS and his wee band of supporters are abusive frequently, but other than them I think most people simply make reasonable comment, express their opinion, and point out the consequences of voting a certain way or not voting. The consequence of not voting SNP is regrettably a unionist majority and the rapid dismantling of devolution, which itself pushes the prospect of Independence further away. I think that is too high a price to pay and so I am holding my nose and I am working from within to try to get Independence back front and centre. People need to own the consequences of how they vote.
DeleteYet here you are, insulting IFS and his 'wee band' (whoever they're supposed to be) and telling people to 'own' the consequences of not voting SNP! Way to reach out to others and respect their choices🤡
DeleteI made a statement of fact as regards IFS. You misrepresent it as insult. Are you not on here much? If you object to someone pointing out the consequences of voting a certain way, perhaps you need to ask yourself why. No insults, just statements. Own the consequences of your actions, and stop blaming others.
DeleteHave a day off pal. You're obsession with IFS, who hasn't even posted here, is boring. I don't give a toss what you think are the consequences of how I vote. I don't know you and I value your opinion at zero. I don't know who I'm supposed to have 'blamed' or what I've 'blamed' them for but I think I've heard enough from you to waste no more time on your rants. Good luck convincing waverers with your attitude.
DeleteOoops. Letting yourself down there silly billy. Accepting responsibility isn’t one of your strong points is it? It’s an expected reaction when you’re pulled up and told to accept responsibility. I’m certainly not your pal, and unlike you I can and do convince waverers. You are spending a lot of time on not wasting your time. Have a wee cup of tea and a biscuit. Do you the world of good.
DeleteWhy are people objecting to anon at 1.20 in aggressive ways? He makes valid points.
DeleteI agree with myself
DeleteAnonymous 4.35, 913, yes OK I see what you mean some people are literally calling these things. It can be difficult to keep track of all the comments on small screens etc. I don't think it's helpful to call people stupid or numpties.
DeleteI see what you mean about withering on the vine but on the other hand parties normally refresh and reform themselves while remaining broadly viable, rather than self destructing.
Does anyone think Labour helped themselves by having a civil war that led to the SDP, and left them in the wilderness for 18 years? Yet people here are contemplating a collapse of the SNP much worse proportionately than Labour in 1983, and hoping for them either to recover or be replaced, within a quicker timeframe.
I understand the frustration but I think it's fanciful that they could recover and reform so readily. I could be convinced but someone needs to convince us. People (not saying you) are quick to pinpoint the problem but offer no credible solution themselves.
Withering on the vine may be right but if so may already have happened, chances already missed, fruits decayed, but the solution is surely to bide time, and have a resurgence when the time is ripe, not destroy the vine, or try to take a cutting which has less chance of survival and would take many more years to come to fruition.
If you ain’t voting snp then vote for another pro Indy party is my advice. But SNP to get MP’s more than labour/ tories is still essential.
ReplyDeleteIs there any poll in existence for what Wales thinks? PC's leader came across well.
ReplyDeleteThere are some voices of sanity here, luckily, e.g. Jeff McLean per his comment at 7:27pm above.
ReplyDeleteScots Tories are in a right mess just now, all of their own making. SLAB has never looked more obviously like the branch office that it always has been anyway. Scots LibDems are marginal and Reform UK only serves to (helpfully) take votes away from the Tories.
In short, if YES voters could all just back the one main YES candidate in their seat, then we would be well placed to pull off a Bill Clinton-style "comeback kid" victory.
To those at the back, that means actually voting, and voting SNP not Alba/ SGP or whatever.
Brian
Spot on. Vote now, debate later.
DeleteFlynn was very good in the debate.
ReplyDeleteIt also got me thinking that Flynn beat Sturgeon. Blackford was Sturgeon’s guy and when Flynn challenged him and it became obvious Blackford world lose, Sturgeon put up Thewliss who lost to Flynn
Flynn winning against Sturgeon when she was in power was quite an achievement.
Also it was Flynn thar persuaded Humza to ditch the Greens so another good decision by Flynn
I have no reason to believe Flynn is captured by gender ideology and I have heard he stopped the worst of the bullying of gender critical SNP politicians when he became leader.
So I am quite positive about him.
My problem with the SNP was Sturgeon because of her backing for gender ideology and also I knew she was Never leading us to independence. She did everything to thwart independence.
The big worry is a unionist win in 2026. After the GE we are only around 18 months from the start of the campaign what can be done to prevent a unionist win. Giving the voting system and state of the parties ?
I hope you're right about Flynn but I fear the party will never return to independence as its primary belief while we still have the baleful influence of Lady Hee Haw pulling the strings and holding us back.
DeleteI say a little prayer each day. This will bring what we desire and require.
DeleteThere's a somewhere where I cherish
All the creatures of the world.
And I hope that we can nourish
All the creatures of the world.
There's a somewhere where I cherish
All the creatures of the world.
And I hope that we can nourish all the creatures of the world.
SCIENCE has failed us
Hi Denise.
DeleteI agree with you about Flynn. Regarding Sturgeon, I agree with you too on the gender ideology mania too. I still give her the benefit of the doubt on Indy, perhaps I am naif to do so.
2026 ain't yet, let's focus on this one.
There is so much despondency around re. this election, but I don't think it is justified. You can talk yourself into defeat and that is what the Indy movement seems to me to be doing. Voting for the SGP is even worse than voting SLAB since the SGP actively damage to YES by both their policies and their actions.
Not that you would ever vote for them in a million years, I know :-)
PLEASE, everyone here, see the Scottish Greens for what they are and give them the heave-ho.
Brian
She did everything to stop independence- that’s just nonesense. The problem we still have is ensuring the 20 % labour supporters to support independence parties. Voting labour= unionism in all its forms.
ReplyDeleteIts the greens who one on the night. Well done Stephen Flynne for last nights debate on the BBC he achieved what Douglas Ross couldn’t achieve, he never once mentioned Independence.
ReplyDeleteCan you spell his name correctly.
DeleteAnd one is won even although you are wrong!
DeleteThat’s the English and Welsh Greens. Not the Scottish Greens. Different party.
ReplyDeleteBrian
Does anyone else find it odd though that Stephen Flynn and the SNP don't seem to be all that willing to mention the "I" word.
ReplyDeleteI read countless comments on here that all Yes supporters need to vote for the SNP to keep the independence dream alive but wouldn't that argument be more persuadable if the SNP themselves were actually prioritising independence in this election?
Unlike previous elections they're not even mentioning "Independence" on the ballot paper, only Alba are doing that this time: Why?
I seem to remember it wasn't mentioned much the last time the SNP campaigned either. I do remember a big yellow bus with Oor Nicla's face plastered on either side and a tiny lower case 'independence' squeezed in on the back just above the licence plate.
DeleteWell I am just back from leafleting for the SNP and we were putting vote for Independence leaflets not always believe what you read. The SNP is definitely for Scotland being an Independent Country.
ReplyDeleteI'm not believing what I read, I'm believing what's being said.
DeleteWhen pressed on why the SNP haven't been mentioning independence when previously it was suggested the General Election could be used as a de-facto referendum Stephen Flyn has said when interviewed a de-facto referendum was "never an adopted party position" & "If we win the election it will be for the UK Parliament, it will be for Keir Starmer in all likelihood the next Prime Minister to then determine whether he'd adhere to the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland".
That sounds a lot like they'll just be asking Starmer for permission on another referendum and when he say's no there will be crys of 'democratic outrage' but then nothing more will come of it (just like all the previous elections).
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteDon't all indy options ultimately require the recognition of others? even UDI requires recognition by other nations. How will they do that if the vote for indy parties goes down 'but, but, that was just because they're not pro indy enough'. Imagine trying to convince countries across the UN that had to fight for their independence to be persuaded by that?
Delete