It's not a completely unreasonable comparison, because a key moment on the road to that merger was the famous 1993 Canadian federal election when the governing Progressive Conservatives were reduced from 156 seats to 2. The MRP projections for the UK Tories in this year's election aren't quite so apocalyptic, but some have the party being reduced to only a few dozen seats, which would open up the serious possibility of a post-election realignment of the party system.
But as I understand it, the Reform Party of Canada was more right-wing than the Progressive Conservatives but it wasn't Faragist, it wasn't bordering on far-right. There must be a danger that a Tory-Reform merger in the UK would produce a new party with exactly the same natural ceiling of support that Reform currently suffers from. That would allow Labour to replace the Tories as the main centre-right force in Britain, and with the luxury of no electable opposition.
* * *
I've profiled the constituency of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock for The National. I can't see the article on the main part of the website, but you can find it in today's print edition (page 7) or in the digital edition if you're a subscriber.
I think it just showed that the Brexiteers themselves understood better than the Tories how short-lived Brexit's popularity was going to be.
ReplyDeleteVotes going to Reform rather than the Tories are going to cost the Tories a double-digit number of seats methinks.
ReplyDelete'Methinks'? Are you a 10 year old girl who thinks she is clever?
DeleteJust a Lesley Riddoch fan, me… I mean, I think. 😉
DeleteWhich will get bigger airplay: Reform cheating the Tories out of seats, or Alba cheating the SNP out of its cushy fiefs?
DeleteThe more votes Alba get the better, splitting the Nat vote and potentially handing seats to Labour or another unionist party.
DeleteAlba isn't 'cheating' the SNP out of anything. They don't own the seats and if people want to vote for someone else they have every right to do so.
DeleteNot if they want any hope of independence for Scotland
DeleteAlba is just Scottish Farage
What do you mean 'not'? You don't think they have the right to vote as they wish? You sound like a bigger fascist than Farage!
DeleteI'm guessing the SNP will likely blame Alba for their election losses but looking at the polls objectively a large percentage of pro-indy voters just aren't bothering to vote SNP, Green or Alba.
DeleteApathy is the SNP's biggest problem, not Alba.
Exactly. The SNPers on here are always moaning about Alba 'stealing' votes from them but the polls show Alba are hardly registering while the Greens, who score much higher, are given a free pass by them as they're good wokists who support men in drag.
DeleteDr Jim from WGD posting his shit once again on SGP at 11.37pm. Too scared to post as Dr Jim - ya coward Jimbo.
DeleteSoon enough Nigel will be proved right again. He beat the Euro elites in France, he beat the Eurofans here in England and he will beat the metropolitan snobs here again. I thank God daily that we have someone who cares about the Great Britain that has ruled the world for 1,000 Royal year's. Thank you Sir.
ReplyDeleteYou can vote for him down in Little Englandshire, then, and help the trots you despise get into power for us.
DeleteSatire... Shirley?
DeleteSatire... Shirley?
DeleteYou never know. The guy who was going to keep our union together in the name of Jesus was apparently real
As much as I thought Humza's leadership was characterised by haplessness and all too often arrogance, at least he had the courage and integrity to swiftly resign when he realised the game was up.
ReplyDeleteGething in Wales meanwhile is giving a crash course in precisely what not to do when you lose a no confidence vote.
England going further to the right politically [and accentuating the difference between us and them] should be good news for our independence if only we had someone in the SNP who could take advantage of it.
ReplyDeleteHmmm, well the point I was making was almost the opposite of that. If the Tories and Reform merge, the party that is created may be unelectable even in England, which would leave Labour in power indefinitely.
DeleteAlthough that Labour party itself would be a centre right party no doubt swelling it's ranks with those Tories who were at the less swivel eyed end of the party ( how Elphicke fits into that is anyone's guess)
DeleteIt keeps her in employment
DeleteI've profiled the constituency of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock for The National. I can't see the article on the main part of the website
ReplyDeleteAny chance you could post that article on here?
Don't have a sub to the digital edition
I would appreciate that. Living in that constituency, would welcome the SGP view.
DeleteMr Farage certainly always appears to have the means to be very comfortable and float geographically like a butterfly on any whim. It's a pity there isn't a financial level playing field when it comes to GE's because we would, for the first time ever perhaps, see politicians of all colours having to break sweat occasionally in honest efforts to convince voters to vote for them.
ReplyDeleteAs the usual UKplc alleged client media seem to have war-gamed this GE much more efficiently and put into action their tactics much earlier than they found themselves pressured to do during the 2014 independence referendum, doesn't it make you give in to musings on the sources of all the dosh swilling around to resource these hives of activity. Remember the little video 'London Calling' which touched on astroturfing during the referendum?
I was doing an audible listen recently of Peter Geoghegan's book 'Democracy for Sale: Dark Money and Dirty Politics'.
In his intro Chapter 1, where he was puzzling as to why during the Brexit referendum, he came across leaflets in Sunderland and promoting Brexit in England paid for by the Democratic Unionist Party. He followed up his curiosity and found that 'the DUP's ad blitz was bankrolled by the biggest donation in Northern Irish history routed through a secretive SCOTTISH GROUP linked to a former head of Saudi Arabian intelligence'.
So here we are in 2024 and having already read references in the media about how much Tories, Labour and Lib-Dems have in their GE war chest - and we know the SNP are the underdogs being completely skint; I suppose we have to imagine that with the get rid of the SNP strategy having been on the go for several years now, from without and within Scotland - are we supposed to imagine that there is any kind of level playing field in existence for this GE - or should we just take it for granted that the 'must wipe out the SNP' intention and the mass pedestalling of Labour/Starmer - must have attracted an even bigger pot of sheckles from an even bigger collection of interested resources than have ever been mobilised before? It's also interesting that it's only some proponents of independence ie SNP who are the total target of all of these influences - whilst some other alleged proponents of independence are either never mentioned at all in derogatory terms from the same anti-independence sources - or are given the occasional admiring and respectful comments. Interesting stuff as it would seem it's only the 'bad SNP' who are singled out to be squeezed by this somewhat wide-ranging pincer movement.
Sorry to stray from initial topic James, but interesting or perhaps not - that Scottish media never really touches on election financing other than to of course talk about the SNP being skint - and of course, for the sake of 'viewers down south', feeling they must regurgitate the master criminal Michael Matheson story to reinforce how bad John Swinney and the SNP are. But of course, that is not just the anglo media reinforcing that one to keep the voters on the simmer.
Surprising the SNP are skint is it? All these SNP supporters who think Sturgeon/Swinney/Yousaf/Somerville/Matheson/Blackford are just wonderful are not getting their wallets out to put their money where their mouth is.
DeleteAnything to do with £600k previously gone missing by any chance? The salary bill in the SNP?
Sorry James for straying but your alluding to Canada and Reform drifted my mind over to probable existing under the radar connections which will be a deliberate spaghetti junction of convenient loose ends.
ReplyDeleteLabour must be thinking they could work with Alba but not the SNP which is an interesting prospect but looks likely?
ReplyDeleteFarage always said that UKIP pulled in a lot more support from traditional socialist Labour voters than was ever reported by the media who wanted to present UKIP purely as a subsection of the Conservatives.
ReplyDeleteThe same is surely true of Reform.
There are a lot of Declans on WGD. By that I mean posters who think Swinney is the greatest thing since, well Yousaf. Plenty Declan's on SGP as well. Probably the same people who thought Sturgeon would deliver Indyref2.
ReplyDeleteNowadays the great SNP leaders are not even thought by the same people to be delivering independence or a referendum just that they think they are sure of touch and other such crap. The crap including doing well at an election launch. Or a PPB having a chat with his deputy. Or trouncing Ross/Sarwar at FMQs.
A party for Scottish independence - a party that will end Scotland's colonial status - your having a laugh.
" It's just not possible" - I've read some crap on SGP but this is a real beauty. Try telling that to all the independent countries around the world.
Delete" it's very difficult to see that happening" - aye well you are clearly lacking in imagination.
This talking about what other posters say on another blog incessantly is tedious and blocks up the flow of valuable conversation.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland @ 9:52, what the hell are you on about?
DeleteAnon 10:09, Listening to you complaining about the same thing every day is also tedious and doesn't do much for the flow of conversation.
DeleteIdiot for Scotland isn’t the sharpest. If we all ignore him he might go back to the Rev Stuey boy. Can but hope.
Delete10.09 am/10.22am/1.15am - Three blunt anonymous tools above huvnae even got the brains to work out that James removed a post from a Britnat that I was commenting upon. I would have thought that was obvious but just as well they remain anonymous. Mind you if I was as thick as anon at 1.15pm I would remain anonymous as well.
DeleteThe three amigo anonymous numpties above - got your wallets out yet to send more money in to the SNP black hole. Wherefore art thou Indyref2 £600k money - in somebody's back pocket?
DeleteAmigo anon at 10.09am. Give us an example of your excellent conversational flow. Go on then - you must have one example at least.
DeleteAmigo anon at 1.15pm says I should go back to Wings. This is probably the same anon troll who previously said I was banned by Campbell. Cannae get his trolling consistent - poor memory as well as thick.
DeleteThe three amigo anonymous numpties have ran away.
DeleteLooks like the Tories hae booted oot Duguid an are parachuting in the DRoss to stand fae East Moray. Does that mean he won't be standing in HR 2926?
ReplyDeleteSoar Alba
He may be too old by then.
Delete2026.
ReplyDeleteI agree that we can quite easily end up with the Tories+Reform becoming unelectable (especially because they mainly appeal to Baby Boomers), and I agree that would allow Labour to replace the Tories as the main centre-right force in Britain, but I do believe some party would eventually fill the void and become the main left-wing force (perhaps most likely a merger of the the Corbynites, the Green Party of E&W, and perhaps some Lib Dems).
ReplyDeleteI seen someone comment that if the polls are accurate in theory a chunk of Labour could break-off, form a new party and we would essentially have Labour as both the Government and the Official Opposition.
DeleteWell, if the largest opposition party ends up with less than 100 seats (as seems likely at the moment), the largest number of MPs opposed to any measure proposed by the Labour government would in many cases be left-wing Labour MPs, so it would get tempting for them to break off.
DeleteNew Ipsos poll has SNP at 5 % UK wide, and leading in Scotland
ReplyDeleteI'll support independence til my dying day but I'm coming to the conclusion we've been given a bum route now. The powers that be, big business, america, EU, London are not going to let the UK break up. They can now simply say any vote is illegal.
ReplyDeleteGetting to an obvious majority is the first step. Let's hope we get there but even if we do, I'm beginning to think we're asking baddies to see their good side.
I'm pretty sure england declared "That would be Illegal" to every
Deletesingle country that wanted to break away from their control.
Because they controlled the country, they passed laws to make
it so. Sixty odd of them still left last century.
Good point.
DeleteLet's hope we get to a point that breaks the malaise.
" Asking baddies to see their good side" No country has colonised another to transfer wealth to the colonised country. Expecting England to be any different now is a pipe dream. The very fact they still glorify the British Empire shows they see nothing wrong in the past, the present or the future.
DeleteSturgeon went to a court in London that was only in existence for a couple of decades to get them to tell her that Scots have no basic rights. Betrayal of the highest order by Sturgeon.