Although the progress the SNP have made in this update is modest (they've improved from seventeen seats to twenty), I'm nevertheless reassured by it, because with the fieldwork being fairly up-to-date it's a good indicator that the momentum hasn't been against the SNP in this campaign. There were one or two little straws in the wind that had started to worry me.
YouGov MRP seats projection for Great Britain:
Labour 425
Conservatives 108
Liberal Democrats 67
SNP 20
Reform UK 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 2
Remember that the target for the SNP to retain a majority of Scottish seats is 29, and they're doing just about well enough to remain on the fringes of contention for that. The upper bound of the projection is 34 seats, much higher than the upper bound of 23 in yesterday's Ipsos MRP.
More to follow...
* * *
I've previewed the constituency races in four of the Edinburgh seats for The National. I can't find them in the main part of the website, but they were in the print edition and are thus available in the digital edition if you're a subscriber. I wrote too much for the Edinburgh South piece and had to cut out an entire paragraph, so I'll give it to you here as a sort of 'DVD extra' -
"In fairness to Murray, being the beneficiary of tactical voting is not completely down to luck. In some respects, Edinburgh South closely resembles East Renfrewshire - another affluent constituency which is both disproportionately anti-independence and anti-Brexit. Indeed, Edinburgh South actually outstrips East Renfrewshire on the anti-Brexit front due to having voted Remain in the 2016 referendum by a margin of 78% to 22%, making it the ninth most pro-European constituency in the whole UK. But in East Renfrewshire, Labour's bid for tactical anti-SNP votes had completely flopped in 2017, allowing the SNP to remain one of the two largest parties alongside the Tories and thus ideally positioned to pitch for pro-EU votes in 2019. In contrast, Labour's far superior organisation in Edinburgh South left Murray able to tell voters in 2019 that they didn't need to choose between tactically voting against a hard Brexit and tactically voting against independence - they could do both by voting for him."
With three MRP polls today it would be easy to despair at the SNP numbers. But a closer look shows so many of the seats, in all polls, on a knife edge. We really are in unknown territory in Scotland just two weeks before polling day. A good night for the SNP could see them remain the largest party. A bad night and we genuinely might be looking at single figures.
ReplyDeleteAll I can say from people I know who do door knocking is there is still support there and the people who are switching to Labour are doing it with a heavy heart. Not so much on SNP woes but they have bought into the only way to get the Tories out is vote Labour even though that's is a false truth.
Why would anyone "despair" at improving numbers for the SNP with YouGov? I know More in Common show a different trend, but most people probably give greater weight to YouGov because of their greater experience with MRP.
DeleteSeems to me and reading various forecasts its tories that are moving to labour (why not- its now more right wing).
DeleteSome folk in Scotland still believe that voting for a British party means they get elected
DeleteIf England decided they wanted a dog on a leash to be the Prime Minister that's what would happen, Scotland just doesn't count in general elections, but the mugs voting Labour live in some parallel brain universe that thinks it does
Over 60 years Scotland voted Labour and it made no difference, now that England has decided to vote Labour these mugs in Scotland think they have something to do with it
I was meaning despair when you take all three polls together. Seeing an SNP seat projection of 8 is sobering stuff.
DeleteI personally think over the course of the campaign the SNP has clawed back ground on Labour and with the Conservatives imploding the Tory North East seats must surely be possible gains. The borders three harder but now in play IMO.
Hopefully we get more Scotland only polls soon.
Of course the election if Scottish MPs can and has seriously affected the outcome of U.K. parliamentary elections. 1964 would be an example. Without Scottish Labour seats Harold Wilson would not have ended 13 years of Tory rule.. That is fact.James has recently asserted that in a Labour SNP marginal you cannot help Labour to victory by voting tactically for Labour.. I respect James in polling and questions like that and I wish he would explain himself.,It is true the SNP would never prop up a Tory administration, but let us say on a bad night for the SNP they happened to manage taking an SNP Labour marginal denying said seat to Labour thus denying Labour the magic number, preventing them forming a government. I imagine James would say great, the SNP would then lend them a vote in some kind of deal but it might not work like that at all. And supposing Tory and Reform merge and thanks to Labour’s weakness they form the minority government. I accept James may have his head round such scenarios better then my poor maths but I do not think it is cut and dried.
DeleteYou've cited the one single example of that happening in 60 years.
Delete58 seats is very rarely going to win it for Labour (or whoever) and quite frankly, if the labour party wanted to form a government and were somewhere in the region of 58 seats short, they can go and form a coalition with the SNP if it gets them the seats.
More to the point, why should we rely on the English electorate to vote for progressive parties every once in a blue moon rather than simply being independent and voting for the governments that, you know, actually work for us.
It's a vely good relult. Guess you're a potato.
ReplyDeleteNEW Savanta MRP for
ReplyDelete@Telegraph
📈Lab projected for 382 majority
📉Cons fighting with LDs to be Official Opposition
Seat forecast
🌹Lab 516 (+316)
🌳Con 53 (-319)
🔶LD 50 (+42)
🎗️SNP 8 (-40)
🌼PC 4 (+2)
⬜️Other 0 (-1)
17,812 UK adults, changes to last GE notional results
Allan...
The Tories are left with only the “don’t give Labour a supermajority” card to play now. Wonder how successful it’ll be. Sunak seems to be having another banana skin day today so they might not have bottomed out yet.
DeleteCan't wait to compare the actual vote result with these number on election night. Think Savanta staff are going to be looking for new jobs on July 5th
DeleteI don't rule out the SNP ending up on single figures, because small differences in the popular vote can have a big impact on seat numbers. But I am sceptical about Savanta having Reform on zero. I'll be amazed if Farage doesn't win Clacton at the very least.
DeleteGood point. Farage is miles ahead in Clacton by all accounts.
DeleteIf that comes true on a vote well shy of 50% then that should be the nail in the coffin for FPTP. On Farage there was a clip of a poll for Clacton itself which showed Farage marginally ahead, then the Tories and then Labour, barely 3% separating them. However Farage had barely over 30%, meaning that nigh-on 70% of voters oppose him. Rather too should be a nail in the coffin of FPTP.
DeleteThose figures are further evidence for my 8-15 forecast yesterday.
Personally I've moved to 70/30 to voting, up from 60/40 last week, with my vote going to the SNP, more as a reaction to Labour's drift from their left wing policies. I'm voting while still holding my nose.
https://x.com/Savanta_UK
ReplyDeleteIf you average out the vote shares for each seat in each model, the SNP end up with 19 seats (and the Tories just 2) on a projected national share of 33%
ReplyDeleteSavanta suggests a 10 pt Labour lead which skews the figures. Remove them and the national share is 34%; so little difference, but the SNP get 24 seats and the Tories are wiped out. Their individual seats predictions seem more out of step than the others.
One caveat is that when the polluters come to the knuckledragger, it's easy to say "I'm voting farage". It's another thing for the knuckledragger to put the chips down and work out where to vote, go there, read and write.
ReplyDeleteGobbledygook
DeletePolluters = pollsters
ReplyDeleteWhy is everybody in Scotland excited because England is making a change, we don't have anything to do with this
ReplyDeleteVery true
DeleteYes it was a great result tonight, all to play for on Sunday. Anyways, from the National in a pretty duff article:
ReplyDeleteAsked about comments from Dundee-born Hollywood actor Brian Cox (above) who said he feared the SNP were backing off the idea of independence, Swinney said:
“A future made in Scotland, I think that’s a pretty clear commitment to independence right on the front cover of our manifesto. And then if we open up the manifesto – ‘vote SNP for Scotland to become an independent country’. I think that that’s quite clear, or I hope it’s clear enough anyway.”
2 weeks to go, to prove it, while continuing to try to tempt non-Indy voters, a tall order. But I'd say that as low as 3 seats is very unlikely, 18 seats probably minimum, and a whitewash of the forces of muscular Unionism is still possible. I'll probably vote SNP.
Deluded, If I was you I'd go back and read what the SNP wrote in their manifesto, its a whole lot of fancy words that lead no where than to pull the likes of in into voting for these Unionist at Holyrood. I've afraid its the likes of you thats keeping Scotland in this Union I hope your pleased by your lack of understanding of whats happening in Scotland.
DeleteTosh. We a' ken the shortcomings o the SNP but tae boot them oot fae oot an oot Britnat unionists is bonkers . Vote SNP , THEN SEND A MESSAGE IN 2O26 by voting Alba on regional list.
DeleteSoar Alba!
Your even more glakit, vote SNP now for what? Then vote Alba in 2026 then what? What a message to send anyone who wants Independence for god sake waken up our shut up.
DeleteTosh. We a' ken the shortcomings o the SNP but tae boot them oot fae oot an oot Britnat unionists is bonkers . Vote SNP , THEN SEND A MESSAGE IN 2O26 by voting Alba on regional list.
DeleteSoar Alba!
The "Soar Alba" makes me think you're trolling, but just in case not - why would voting against the SNP in 2026 be less dangerous than voting against them now? You think a Westminster election is more important for independence than a Holyrood one?
I think the whole argument many are making now (and I'd include James in this): It doesn't matter if we actually have a pro-independence majority of Scottish MPs as long as we the perception that we do.
DeleteTo them optics alone matters more than something actually being done.
The counter to that is obviously just creating the illusion of independence support isn't why we've elected the SNP in multiple elections. We expected them to actually pursue it.
DeleteI'm not inspired to vote for a Party to just pretend that independence is being progressed, I actually want independence to be progressed. The SNP are no longer doing that so why do they deserve my vote? If anything if we continue to vote for the SNP regardless we risk having permanent stagnation as nothing will ever change.
James’s Edinburgh West writeup here:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/24399030.snp-local-support-will-need-fend-off-libdems/
A very good analysis of my own seat’s political history. Donald Gorrie was a good man, and how I wish his politics was alive and well. But James is right: the Lib Dem’s frame themselves as ONLY THE LIB DEMS CAN STOP THE SNP! in all of their deluge of leaflets here. Unionism is all they are now. They are the empty shell of a ruined tradition that used to thrive in Scotland. Sad, really.
To my mild annoyance, the National’s picture of Carlton Hill and the Old Town isn’t the right seat. That’s all in Edinburgh East! Edinburgh West’s obvious landmarks for a photo are the Forth Bridges, Edinburgh Zoo or Corstorphine or Cramond village. This is a thoroughly suburban constituency, with more than its share of private schools and the fancy mansions that send their kids there. That’s why it’s unionist.
Thanks iPhone for miscorrecting Calton, while I’m at it!
DeleteVery encouraging poll.
ReplyDeleteAgree 100%
DeleteWhat he said.
DeleteFully agree.
DeleteThe improvement is entirely down to the false promise again of Indyref2. The SNP crying wolf on the only subject that matter to Independence supporters is causing more damage to Indy cause.
ReplyDeleteI agree 100%.
DeleteThey’re had a majority of MPs and a pro-Indy majority at Holyrood for donkey’s now and we’re not an inch closer to independence. Voting SNP is totally pointless from an Indy point of view. I know it’s a wasted vote in terms of getting an MP elected but the more votes Alba gets, the stronger the message.
ReplyDeleteAgree. The Yes movement is now like a dinosaur in a tar pit and we all know who is responsible for having put it there, so why on earth would you reward them with your vote.
ReplyDeleteI blame Joyce Flett for luring dinosaurs into tar pit by tempting them with jammy dodgers. She's evil.
DeleteInteresting how the so called YES movement keeps claiming they're bigger and wider and a driving force more important than the SNP but when things aren't going the way they'd like they immediately blame the SNP who they keep claiming isn't the driving force
DeleteSome of you need a bit of humility, no SNP no YES movement
No SNP no Alba, no SNP no nothing
Gutless cowards do what you're doing every bit as bad and sometimes far worse than unionists
We voted for the SNP to be the political vehicle to drive us towards independence. So obviously when they fail in that task and then cease genuine efforts instead of just pretending, they rightly deserve criticism and blame.
Delete"No SNP, no YES movement. No SNP, no Alba. No SNP, nothing."
Christ sounds like an abusive ex going 'You'd be nothing without me!'
That arrogant sense of entitlement that the SNP somehow owns the independence movement is what pisses people off.
No SNP no Yes movement? Pity nobody told Sturgeon that as she never bothered to attend any Yes rallies.
DeleteIts no coincidence that the SNP are suddenly pushing independence to the forefront at this time. Surely people can see this is all about buying votes and keeping snouts in the Westminster trough. If they retain most of their seats the SNP will see it as job done and go back to their old ways, where independence barely gets a mention.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP need to be made aware how unhappy people are with them. If there’s another pro indy party in your constituency, by all means vote for them, but voting SNP is counter productive as regards to independence.
A short sharp shock at this GE can only be a good thing, which will surely result in a serious rethink by the SNP.
This is nonsense. Loss of SNP seats will be portrayed as Scots losing interest in independence.
DeleteVote SNP as a message to the establishment.
In less than 2 years you can then vote for other Indy parties to increase pressure on the SNP.
It's just common sense: vote SNP on the 4th.
Soar Alba
It's the SNP that has lost interest in independence. Why wait two years to send them a message when you can do it next month?
DeleteAnon at 3:12,
DeleteCouldn’t agree more. Why wait 2 years to send the SNP a message when we can do it in 2 weeks time. Then maybe, just maybe, they’ll have got that message, and we can go into the Holyrood election confident they actually stand for independence.
Such drivel. Please don’t vote snp - vote for other parties that will not win 1 seat in the whole of Scotland. Labour are you?
ReplyDeleteSorry I detest the Tory Labour, I detest the austerity Lib Dem’s and the tories of Sunak Johnson and truss. They created the food banks, supported wars in Iraq, lied and cheated over Brexit.
Anyone with any ounce of independence will vote SNP or forever condemned.
And I detest the charlatans in today's SNP. They have done nothing to progress independence since 2014 while vilifying the man who actually gave us a referendum.
DeleteAnyone with any sense would have seen through these Vichy Scot collaborators in the SNP by now.
We ken fine you're just britnat troll!
DeleteYou ken nothing you eejit.
DeleteI don't want to go into the voting booth to vote against something, I want to vote FOR something.
DeleteI want to be inspired and feel like things might actually change for the better if who I vote for is elected. Currently the SNP isn't giving that reassurance and are just spouting the same nonsense as the last decade. Nothing will change if the SNP are elected and I'm frankly tired of maintaining the status quo.
Oh sure... "Britnat troll"...the knee-jerk response to any criticism of Sturgeon's rancid SNP.
DeleteThere are none so blind as those who will not see, which pretty well sums up anybody left in the Sham Nationalist Party; whose sole purpose appears to be self preservation at any cost - including kicking the Indy can down the road... again!
Like King Belshazzar, the SNP will eventually understand the writing on the wall and realise that they've also been weighed, measured and found wanting - not least by their 60,000 former members.
Indy for Scotland!
SNP out!
That guy's head is buried so deep in the sand, I doubt he 'kens' what day of the week it is so it's easier for him to dismiss everyone else as a Britnat and prove his Scottishness by using the odd couthy phrase.
Delete" kens" ? An odd couthy phrase? I actually use this word an mony
Deletesic ithers.
If you're Scottish you are suffering from the cultural cringe . Probably you are just a Britnat/ unionist troll.
Hoots mon! Och aye the noo! Mony a mickle maks a muckle! That proves Ah'm a real Scotch person just like you.
Delete(Or maybe I just prefer to live in the modern world).
oh dear, that wakened up the vichy unionists.
ReplyDeleteIf you vote to help the tories and liebour in - wear the hat and stop your wailing about independence. Most Independence supporters recognise your tactics. 2% and reducing.
Can someone tell me what Alba would do to progress Independence.With a majority of seats even with a majority of votes Westminster would still refuse to negotiate.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be the idea that the International community would force Westminster s hand .I don't understand where this trust that the international community would do the right thing comes from.
The whole crux of the matter is that somehow we have to force Westminster to the negotiating table .I don't see any rational plan from Alba to force Westminster hand short of just shouting more .
Any idea of UDI is for the birds .For UDI to succeed you need control of all the levers of Government.
Just how would a UDI declared Scottish government force the HMRC to hand over all the taxes collected in Scotland to the Scottish government.Or can you be sure the courts Police Scotland the local authorities back a UDI Scottish Government.
The only way I can see Independence being progressed is to get support up to well over 50% probably close to 60% over a sustained period .
No UK PM wants to have as their legacy as the PM who lost the Union
I agree with most of your post.
DeleteI think if support for independence got up to around 60% for a prolonged period, Westminster would have to seriously consider granting an independence referendum. The longer support stayed at that level the greater the pressure would be on the UK government.
I think we need to drive support to that kind of level to have a realistic chance of a referendum. It won’t be easy, but can be done through time.
No it can't. You're effectively arguing against independence by insisting on an utterly unattainable target figure that simply isn't required in a democracy.
DeleteSerious question: Why would any UK Prime Minister ever willingly allow a referendum to take place that they would almost certainly lose & they'd gone down in history as the Prime Minister who allowed the breakup of the United Kingdom to happen? They would need to be pretty selfless to not care about their own legacy!
DeleteWhy would the britnats agree to a referendum if 60% wished it when they ignored 62% of us wishing to remain in the EU. 50% + 1 is the rules
DeleteA vote for the SNP is a vote for Devo-Max and NOT for independence.
ReplyDeleteAll that'll happen if, and it's a big IF, the Sham Nationalist Party win >50% of Westminster seats is that Swinney will be told "No" to talks, but Starmer will eventually agree and throw the SNP a bone in the form of limited additional powers for Holyrood, probably in the form of control over weights and measures for grass seed.
Swinney will then trudge back up the Great North Road giving it "I have in my hands a piece of paper..." and the party faithful will love him for it. Supporters of Independence however will see it for what it is.
But all this is academic. Even the SNP know they'll not get 50%, which is why they can promise everything yet be held accountable
for delivering nothing - no change there!
50% + of seats is achievable (though looking highly unlikely). 50% of votes is not. 2 weeks is a long time in politics so you never know. The SNP might actually have to stick to the manifesto promises.
DeleteSo fit will thee dee vote fae Britnats? Use yer heid , vote SNP to keep a semblance of progress THEN switch to mair Indy friendly party in 2026 on the list!
DeleteIt nae rocket science!
Soar Alba !
"Use yer heid" you say? You must've boiled yours!
Delete"Progress"? What progress? Nearly a decade on and we're still no closer to Indy thanks to the SNP and their obsession with gender, their incompetence and their scandals and self inflicted disasters, and you want me to vote for them?
Aye right!
We're like Quebec...the whole movement has been set back by a decade all thanks to Sturgeon's rancid SNP, yet still you want votes for them and their jam tomorrow.
Insanity - the act of repeating an action in the hope of achieving a different outcome.
Dae ye nae ken fit semblance means?
DeleteIt's mair the message to the UK gov and the establishment that matters. Theres nae advantage letting Britnat Britnat unionist parties win by default
. I amazed that you cannae see this.
AGAIN VOTE SNP NOW , vote Alba 2026 on the list.
Anonymous at 5.33pm. Parti Quebecois are experiencing a major revival and lead the polls in Quebec. Only they can lead Quebec to independence just as only the SNP can lead Scotland to independence.
ReplyDeleteDear oh dear....
ReplyDeleteThe SNP had 56 out of 59 MPs, had nearly 2/3 voting Remain, could've walked then and had the EU (except Spain) cheering them on. Instead...
As for Québec, nearly three decades since their unsuccessful IndyRef2, but don't let that stop you - that's a win for you it seems. Honestly, the utterly delusional reign supreme in the SNP.
Yes. Just 30 years to wait for indyref2! Once in a generation right enough. Still onwards and upwards with the SNP!😁😁😁
DeleteYou really don't get it do you! Or you are a Britnat? It not that we expect the SNP to do anything much towards independence . It's more to send a message. Wake up. Time to increase pressure on SNP comes in less than 2years when there's other parties with hopefully, some chance of being elected.
DeleteDear oh dear...
"It not that we expect the SNP to do anything much towards independence"
DeleteHow does that inspire people to vote for them though?
You can understand the issue that most people when voting in an election want to believe that their vote will actually matter & who they vote for will change things for the better? The masses don't vote for optics or illusions.
The old Britnat trope. LOL. Would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.
DeleteWant Devo-Max? Vote SNP. Fine. I get that. But don't give me any of your garbage about the SNP and Indy. The track record of the party this last decade tells you all you need to know on that score.
Vote SNP? I'd rather spoil the paper - and I don't care for sending messages.
The time for sending a message was when we had 56 out of 59 seats and we were about to lose our EU citizenship.
Yep. Standing up for Scotland for all to see. Fool me once...
Aye , I am no disagreeing , nevertheless at this pass we , those of us that want to keep Indy alive , should vote SNP. Or so I believe , if only because the unionist / britnat parties and media will only portray it as Scotland moving away from independence . As I keep saying, in 2 years there will be the opportunity to vote on the HR list . This would , if people use it , increase the pressure on SNP.
DeleteOr lets sit on our hands let Labour elect 40 plus Scots MPs to add to their 200 seat majority . And let the Tories keep their 6 seats.
Wake up!
Soar Alba!
Spoil your ballot paper? It is recorded as a spoilt paper and nobody cares. It is about who wins.
ReplyDeleteExactly this.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWhy all the people posting as anonymous ? Ok I'm using a fake name but at least you can see it's me when I do.
ReplyDeleteReplyDelete
John Swinney did well on BBC Question Time.
ReplyDeleteA performance that will not quickly be forgotten.
DeletePoll just out puts Swinney as winner of debate.
DeletePlay by britnat rules, lose by britnat rules.
ReplyDeleteBBC Scotland News [sic] Alert: Ruth Davidson has something to say.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely...
ReplyDeleteIndyRef1... Meaningless Vow which nobody could be held to and was quickly forgotten. Dodgy piles of Yes ballots in the No ballot section. Betty Windsor and her supposed neutrality. People turning up to vote to be told they already had. Postal return numbers simply not credible. The franchise itself, (Indigenous Scots voted Yes), etc. etc.
Brexit... Vote how you like but sheer weight of numbers ensures that what England wants England gets. Scotland=Remain. N.Ireland=Remain. Wales (Indigenous Welsh)=Remain. England=Leave therefore UK=Leave. (With no N.Ireland style deal for Scotland despite nearly 2/3 voting Remain and despite 56 out of 59 Scottish MPs being SNP - may as well have been 1 out of 59 for all the difference they made).
Why bother sending SNP MPs to Westminster. Just target practice for Speaker Hoyle and lending legitimacy to a legislature which exploits and diminishes Scotland at every turn.
Winnie Ewing said to Harold Wilson when asked if she was settling in at Westminster "I'm here to settle up Harold, not settle in". The current crop of SNP MPs need reminded of that fact and the best way is to return fewer of them. Hopefully those few who are returned get the idea and stay at home SF style.
Coq au vin
DeleteSinn Féin Could have helped defeat Theresa May but since they dont sit there we lost out. Johnson, truss and sunak the result. Take it as read that no one wants to be there. Not turning up gives labour a free rein and would be condemned by the electorate. How come “ ALBA” MP’s stayed in Westminster?
ReplyDeleteThough during Theresa May's time as Prime Minister the SNP had the numbers to make a difference in that Parliament.
DeleteWe all remember how desperate she was to get a deal passed and the countless failed attempts that ultimately resulted in an election needing to be called.
Instead of sitting on their hands during crucial votes and making baseless speeches about how "Scotland won't be dragged out of the EU against her will" they could have put the pressure on May and offered her an ultimatum: We'll help you to stop the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal in return for offering Scotland the choice on her constitutional future due to this clear change in material circumstances.
In her desperation there's a good chance she would have accepted those terms, England would have gotten a better Brexit deal and we would have gotten our referendum: Win-Win.
Instead we got Boris Johnson and all that followed...