First Savanta survey since Swinney swept in shows sizzling 48% support for independence

Looking back at the dates, it seems to have been 2nd May on which it became obvious that John Swinney was the next SNP leader, so as this poll didn't start until the 3rd, it can be seen to all intents and purposes as the first published poll of the Swinney era.  That said, things can be a little bit different once the public actually see a new leader in the role, rather than just anticipating it, so it'll still be important to see the first polls entirely conducted after Swinney was officially sworn in.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta, 3rd-8th May 2024)

Yes 48% (-1)

No 52% (+1)

As was the case under Yousaf, the independence numbers appear to have become completely decoupled from trends in SNP support.  Which is just as well in this instance, because the SNP have taken another significant hit in the Westminster voting intention numbers.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

Labour 37% (+2)

SNP 33% (-2)

Conservatives 17% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)

I said the other day that much would depend on whether the early polls under Swinney show the SNP vote holding up, or whether there would be a 'Truss effect' whereby the damage caused by the outgoing leader is so great that the new leadership is powerless to repair it.  What has happened appears to be somewhere in between those two outcomes.  The wheels have not come off, so the SNP so still have hope for the general election, but a four-point Labour lead is significant enough to be a cause for concern, especially bearing in mind that: a) the voting system is essentially biased towards Labour in any close result, and b) Westminster election campaigns are 'away fixtures' for the SNP with Labour enjoying far more media coverage beamed direct from London.  So on the face of it, things are more likely to get worse rather than better.  The hope must be that the Swinney/Forbes team can gradually reverse the Yousaf damage before the official campaign period even begins.

Are things better or worse for the SNP in the Holyrood voting intentions?  It's in the eye of the beholder, but personally I would say worse, because it's the all-important list vote that's the killer.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (-2)

Labour 35% (+2)

Conservatives 18% (-)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

Labour 32% (+3)

SNP 26% (-2)

Conservatives 18% (-2)

Greens 11% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)

In a strange way, I'm not as worried about the 2026 Holyrood election as I am about this year's general election.  Leadership polling is often more predictive of election results than the headline numbers, and regardless of whether John Swinney or Kate Forbes leads the SNP into the election, I strongly suspect that either one will have an advantage over Sarwar, who will look like an amateur in comparison.  But as far as the general election is concerned, the SNP have played their last major card, and although they certainly haven't played it to its fullest potential, they're just going to have to unite as best they can and make the new arrangement work.  Hopefully this poll marks the low point and the recovery starts from here.