Thursday, January 25, 2024

New Britain-wide YouGov poll offers some respite for the SNP

In the absence of more frequent Scottish polls (which I'm doing my level best to put right - fundraiser HERE!), the best available straw in the wind about what is going on with public opinion in election year comes from the Scottish subsamples in GB-wide YouGov polls - unlike most other firms, YouGov seem to structure and weight their subsamples correctly, although the margin of error is still huge due to the low sample size.  In spite of continuing to show a massive Britain-wide lead for Labour, the new poll - perhaps surprisingly - suggests the SNP may have made a small recovery.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 23rd-24th January 2024):

Labour 47% (-)
Conservatives 20% (-)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Greens 6% (-1)
SNP 4% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 37%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 16%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Reform UK 6%, Greens 3%

The reality of normal sampling variation means that Labour being a few points ahead in one subsample and the SNP being a few points ahead in the next subsample is perfectly consistent with a no change position, and the two parties remaining very closely matched.  But even that would be encouraging in one sense, because it would suggest Labour are not pulling away relentlessly.

Seat projections based on an individual subsample are a bit of a dubious exercise, but for what it's worth, it works out as SNP 36 (-12), Labour 13 (+12), Conservatives 5 (-1), Liberal Democrats 3 (-1).  That's pretty much the exact reverse of the projection from the previous subsample, illustrating how relatively small changes in the popular vote can be magnified by first-past-the-post and produce dramatic consequences in terms of seats.

The other big story of this poll is the astoundingly low seven-point gap (at GB level) between the Tories in second place and Reform UK in third.  That raises the intriguing question of whether Nigel Farage returning as Reform UK leader would be enough to see the Tories plummet to third in the polls.  

Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months.  It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked.  Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.

However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

26 comments:

  1. Encouraging poll for Humza and the SNP.
    Let’s hope it’s the beginning of a recovery in their fortunes, and not a one off poll.

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  2. I can't see UKIP/BXP/ReformUK having a chance to break England's 2-party monopoly in a real, live general election. The hideous FPTP system, and the BBC's heavy spin during the campaign, funnels votes towards Tories and Labour every time.

    Never say never, and the polls are surely picking up something, but political gravity is real and it would take a hell of a shock to the system to see a breakthrough. The last time someone managed it was when Labour burst in against the Liberals.

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    1. And that was primarily due to the radical change in the electorate with the enfranchising of all adults in the first third of the 20th century

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Very good poll for SNP.

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    1. Good to see. Hopefully things improve from here for the SNP.
      I wasn’t a fan of Yousaf until recently but he’s certainly growing on me now.
      The only thing that really concerns me now is the polis investigation into the finances, which obviously has the potential to throw a spanner into the works. Hopefully nothing comes of it though, and this may in fact be a real shot in the arm for the SNP and in turn boost the Indy cause considerably.

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    2. Good points. Humza seems to be growing well into the role.

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    3. If you're going to pretend to be more than one person it would help if you didn't use exactly the same language all the time! We're almost embarrassed for you.

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    4. K C - you are losing what little credibility you have but hey you can still join my fan club.

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    5. IFS, you know my previous post makes absolute sense. You just can’t bring yourself to admit it.

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    6. K C 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 which one would that be the anonymous or the K C?

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    7. Good points. K C seems to be growing well into the role.

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    8. Agreed. Excellent poll for K C

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    9. Shake shake shake, shake your booty

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    10. Do a little dance
      Make a little love
      Get down tonight

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    11. I wasn't initially a supporter of K C, but he has impressed me greatly since becoming Pope.

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  5. It seems possible that what is happening is that SNP supporters who left last year are returning.

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    1. It seems possible that what is happening is that you keep posting the same pish over and over and agreeing with yourself.

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    2. 👍👍👍👍👍

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  6. Many people last year were concerned, when Nicola Sturgeon stood down, as to whether there would be a decline for the SNP in the polls. This poll suggests that while there may have been a decline for the SNP in the polls, the decline may not have been as bad as had been feared, and/or may have bottomed out.

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    1. I think you could be right and the SNPs fortunes may have bottomed. A lot depends on the outcome of the investigation into their finances though.

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    2. Agreed. That will be quite important.

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