Saturday, December 21, 2024

Your golden link to keep handy for whenever you encounter a true believer in "BBC impartiality"

I'd encourage everyone to read Owen Jones' remarkable investigative piece on Drop Site News about the sources of the BBC's pro-Israel bias during the ongoing genocide in Gaza.  And then I'd invite everyone to bookmark the page and make sure you always have it handy, because I think it will prove to be invaluable in the years to come.  Although it's primarily about why the BBC cannot be trusted in its reporting of Gaza, it also has the side-benefit of powerfully demonstrating why the BBC cannot be trusted in its reporting of domestic UK or Scottish politics either.  We all have people in our lives who still think the BBC is impartial in the way it covers the Scottish constitutional debate and that anyone who suggests otherwise is a tinfoil hat zoomer, so gently encouraging people like that to read Jones' piece with an open mind might be the first step for them on the road to enlightenment.

A particularly damning section is about Robbie Gibb, who hilariously is "charged with helping to define the BBC’s commitment to impartiality", even though - 

1) He is the brother of a former Tory government minister

2) He is the former chief of staff to a Tory MP

3) He is the former Director of Communications for the Tory Prime Minister Theresa May

4) He was knighted by Theresa May

5) He was described two years ago by former Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis as an "active agent of the Conservative party"

6) Until only a few months ago, he was the 100% owner of the rabidly pro-Netanyahu, pro-genocide newspaper the Jewish Chronicle

It's the revelation about the Jewish Chronicle that made my jaw drop to the floor, because if the BBC's impartiality safeguards were functioning as they're supposed to, that should have been enough to lead to Gibb's instant dismissal from his BBC role.  

During my battles a year or two back with the press regulator IPSO, which is largely a sham regulator, I read up about the small minority of complaints that IPSO have upheld over the years and discovered that the Jewish Chronicle is by far the biggest offender.  If you read comments IPSO have published about the Jewish Chronicle, you'll find that they basically regard the paper as staffed by hyper-partisan amateurs who push an agenda without even bothering with the basics of journalism.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

A reply to Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, who was ultimately responsible for commissioning the Norstat poll question about the monarchy and independence, left a series of irate comments on Scot Goes Pop yesterday.  Quite frankly I think he was bang out of order, and in any other circumstances I would just have deleted his comments.  But instead I replied to his "points", such as they were, and I will do so again in more detail here.

His first complaint was that I had not stated that his question had been a bolt-on to the same Norstat / Sunday Times poll that showed a Yes vote of 54% on the standard independence question.  The reason I did not state that is that I did not know, and there was no possible way I could have known for sure.  The data tables were not available on the Norstat website, so all I had to go on was Gordon's own tortuously-worded article on the Believe in Scotland website, which seemed to be going out of its way to make it as difficult as possible to work out whether a bolt-on question had been added to the Sunday Times poll or whether a wholly separate poll had been conducted.  So I accurately stated the position as it stood - that Gordon's wording had been ambiguous and it was therefore impossible to be sure, but my impression was that a separate poll had been conducted.

Gordon harrumphs that he had made the position "quite clear" in the first sentence of the second paragraph of his "announcement".  Er, no you didn't, Gordon.  That was the very sentence that led me to form the strong impression that you had commissioned a separate poll and not a bolt-on question, and any other reasonable person would have reached the same conclusion.  This is what you said in that sentence - 

"Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents."

For future reference, Gordon, if you don't want to convey the false impression that you had commissioned a separate poll, it might be best to try not to use highly misleading words like "we had a poll of our own going at the same time". The bit about "the same panel of respondents" did not clear the mists, because by definition all Norstat polls use the same panel - that's the way online polling firms operate. If you had instead said "the same sample", that would have been of more help.  But you did not.

Frankly, my guess is that Gordon used ambiguous language quite deliberately, because he feared that directly admitting his question was a bolt-on or "piggy-back" to the Sunday Times poll would have somehow diminished the prestige of his exercise.  That in my view is an unwarranted concern, but I think that's probably what was going on.

The cherry on the cake of Gordon's rant was this concluding sentence - 

"James you could have just called me have we not always got on well enough?"

I mean, what?  Scot Goes Pop is a polling analysis blog that tries to get as much information out as possible, as quickly as possible. Am I supposed to put everything on hold for twelve hours every time there is a point of ambiguity in the way a poll is reported, in the forlorn hope that I might get a clarifying reply from the Scotsman or whatever?  I don't operate that way, and I don't plan to start operating that way.  

And as it happens, Gordon, I don't think I've got your phone number.  Having thought about it, the last time I spoke to you was way back in May 2021 when we appeared together on Independence Live's election results show. I doubt if that date is a coincidence, because I've formed the distinct impression that you and your organisations have quietly distanced yourselves from the likes of me since 2021 - not out of any personal animosity, but simply because you were hostile to the Alba project and were distancing yourselves from anyone associated with it.

But nevertheless it's true that before then we had always got on well enough, which is probably why I held back on Thursday from pointing out the elephant in the room, namely the downright dodgy wording of your poll question - 

If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?

The words "so Scotland's governance would be fully democratic" are insanely leading.  Even leaving aside the more general problems with hypothetical poll questions that I previously discussed, the use of such leading wording means the results of the poll are of very dubious worth.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Friday, December 20, 2024

What is the 1989 analogy here: is it Wenceslas Square, or a prelude to Tiananmen Square? Nobody can quite work out whether it's safe to topple the statues, as news breaks that the post of General Secretary of the Alba Party is to be sensationally ABOLISHED

I follow the Moskva
Down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of CHA-ANGE
An August summer night
Soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of CHA-ANGE

Take me 
To the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away (dream away)
In the wind of CHANGE
Mmmmm

As has been well-rehearsed in recent weeks and months, Chris McEleny has sweeping powers over members of the Alba Party that would make many a dictator blush, even though on paper he is no more than a paid employee of the party.  It's rather akin to giving a civil servant powers to impose the death penalty on random passers-by.  To the best of my knowledge Mr McEleny holds no elected position within the party whatsoever.  So what happens if his paid job suddenly disappears?

We may find out in the relatively near future, because the weekly Alba email has dramatically revealed that the positions of General Secretary (held by Mr McEleny) and Deputy General Secretary (held by Corri Wilson) are likely to be abolished, although this will be dependent on constitutional amendments.  It's not clear whether the true underlying motivation for the decision is primarily cost-saving (as the email implies), or whether concerns over the way Mr McEleny has exercised his dictatorial powers, and the countless casualties he has left in his wake, are shared in the upper reaches of the party.

The email states that Mr McEleny's functions will be replaced by dedicated roles among party staff covering areas such as "media" and "campaigning".  But there's no word on what will happen to his regal powers allowing him to arbitrarily suspend party members at his whim and press for their expulsion.  One obvious possibility is that those powers will simply be transferred to the unelected party chair, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, which will not constitute any sort of improvement at all.  Or perhaps Mr McEleny will just carry on, and even double down on the purges, with a new job title.

Whatever the details turn out to be, the change is unlikely to save me from expulsion, because presumably Mr McEleny and Ms Wilson will still be in harness when my appeal is heard on 8th January.  But in the best case scenario, there may now be an unexpected glimmer of hope for those Alba members who have yet to be expelled or suspended or bullied out of the party (it was only ever a matter of time, guys).

More analysis of the Norstat poll suggesting 59% would vote for independence if it means abolishing the monarchy

Just a quick note to let you know I have a new analysis piece at The National about the new poll suggesting a commitment to republicanism would increase Yes support by five percentage points.  You can read it HERE.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

No, the Believe in Scotland poll does not mean promising a republic would boost Yes support (in fact the opposite is probably true)

As you may have seen by now, Believe in Scotland have commissioned a Norstat poll asking about support for independence in the hypothetical scenario that the Yes campaign promises that the monarchy will be abolished.  The write-up is slightly ambiguous on the context in which the question was asked, but the impression I get is that this was not a bolt-on question added to the Sunday Times poll that found 54% Yes support for independence on the standard referendum question.  In other words, the Believe in Scotland question was asked to a different sample of respondents.

If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?

Yes 59%
No 41%

This is a potentially quite dangerous result, because it could lead people down a very deep rabbit hole.  Believe in Scotland are arguing that it means promising a republic would instantly add five percentage points to Yes support, but it really, really doesn't mean that.  Quick fixes of that sort generally aren't available, but if anything this particular suggestion of a quick fix would be highly likely to backfire and reduce Yes support.

So why has the poll produced such a misleading result? It's well known that hypothetical questions, asking "if condition A applied, how would you vote in response to question B?" do not produce reliable numbers.  For example, in the run-up to the EU referendum, any number of polls purported to show that a Leave vote would result in big majority support for independence, but that didn't materialise when the event actually arose.

The reason is probably that respondents tend to focus on "condition A" much more than they do on the main meat of "question B".  If you oppose Brexit, or if you hate the monarchy, your natural reaction will be to demonstrate how strongly you feel about the subject, ie. "yeah, I'd do anything to stop Brexit, even vote for independence!", but when the question actually comes up in the real world, you focus on how you feel about independence itself, and Brexit or the monarchy fades into the background.  It may still affect your thinking but not to anything like the same degree.

The reason why tying a Yes vote to a republic would be unhelpful is that everyone knows that the UK will retain the monarchy.  So republicans have nowhere else to go - even if the pro-independence campaign is explicitly monarchist, there's no reason why republicans wouldn't vote Yes, because it would leave them no worse off.  By contrast, monarchist voters will always have an alternative if you push them too far - if the Yes campaign is overtly republican, that might just tip the balance and lead monarchists to vote No.

That said, the replacement of the former Queen with the less popular Charles may mean it's now safer for any future Yes campaign to adopt a position of neutrality on the monarchy, and say that the people will decide the issue later in a separate referendum.  That may well be the most sensible course, and I suspect that's what would happen.

If there is any significance to the Believe in Scotland poll, it may be that it implies that the 54% Yes vote in the Sunday Times poll was not a fluke, because it's hard to see how you'd get to 59% support on the hypothetical question unless baseline Yes support was also very high.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Wings is following the "OTHER STUFF" signpost

A typically jaw-dropping comment from Wings in his latest blogpost - 

"And to be honest, readers, living to see the truth finally come to light is the main driver that’s keeping this website going. There is no hope of Scottish independence under the current SNP."

The truth he's talking about is the truth about any conspiracy intended to put Alex Salmond in jail for crimes he did not commit.

For years now, Mr Campbell's fan club has screamed blue bloody murder at anyone who has dared to suggest that Wings is no longer a pro-independence blog, in spite of the fact that - a) Mr Campbell said he would abstain in any new referendum on independence, b) he urged his readers to vote Labour at the general election in July (which means, incidentally, that he is in no position to say anything at all about the betrayal of the WASPI women), c) he indicated at one point that he was planning to vote Conservative at the general election, d) he urged his readers to vote for unionist parties in certain constituency seats in the 2021 Holyrood election, and e) the vast bulk of his blogging and social media output for many years has been about the trans issue, and not about independence or anything even vaguely related to it.  If it's going to be argued that Wings is pro-indy in spite of all that, it would have to be assumed there's some kind of grand plan on Mr Campbell's behalf to use his site to break through the barriers and pursue independence by a radical alternative route.  But now we have it from the horse's mouth - there is no plan.  He has no alternative ideas to offer.  He's given up on independence, and Wings is now nothing more than a trans issues / Justice for Salmond / Vote Labour site.

There was a cartoon on Wings at the time of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation which showed her at a junction in a path, with one sign pointing to "INDEPENDENCE" and another sign pointing to "OTHER STUFF".  She, naturally, was finding her feet drawn to the "OTHER STUFF" path.  Mr Campbell is now eagerly following her down that road.  Establishing the truth of what happened in the run-up to the Salmond trial is an important matter, but it has got nothing to do with independence and is not going to get us to independence.  If it becomes the all-consuming focus of a part of (or rather a former part of) the independence movement, something has gone very seriously awry somewhere.

As readers will probably appreciate, I'm considerably more ambivalent about the planned legal action on behalf of Alex Salmond than I was a year ago, because I've since been trampled all over by the Alba Party without a shred of due process and seen the same thing happen to other good independence supporters, and I know (at least to some extent) which specific individuals played a direct role in that.  It's become clear that certain people's high-minded talk about "justice" is only really about "justice for the powerful" or "justice for the famous" or "justice for people I'm related to", and is not at all about justice as a general principle that everyone can and should benefit from equally.  Nevertheless, if there was a conspiracy to jail Mr Salmond for political reasons, that's disgraceful and it's entirely appropriate to use the courts to bring the facts to light.  But that's something Mr Salmond's family and friends can and will pursue.  For the rest of us, our laser-like focus must remain on the goal of independence.  I know there was some concern among Alba members two or three weeks ago about an appeal from the party leadership for funding that didn't really make clear whether the funds would be used for Alba's political campaigning, or for the Salmond justice campaign.  The two concepts seem to be getting muddled up in a really quite dangerous way.

One of the many reasons I was hoping Kate Forbes would defeat Humza Yousaf in the 2023 SNP leadership election is that it would finally have moved the independence movement away from the Salmond v Sturgeon faultline.  John Swinney can't provide such a decisive break because everyone knows he's more associated with Sturgeon, but nevertheless there have been some encouraging signs - Swinney has distanced himself from the Greens and de-emphasised gender ideology in a way that Sturgeon would never have done, and he made an important healing gesture by attending the Salmond memorial service.  Let's not squander that progress by trying to perpetuate an internal Cold War within the Yes camp that is now well past its sell-by date.  We have a country to win, so let's get back to doing that.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

It's incoherent to stand in constituency seats while still telling voters to game the system for a supermajority

This is something that genuinely puzzles me, and I know it's a point that has also been made by Colette Walker of ISP.  If the Alba Party are planning to take the (unwise, in my view) step of intervening in constituency seats in 2026, that would imply that they've moved away from the 2021 messaging of "get a pro-indy majority by gaming the voting system", because the latter only works if you advise people to vote SNP in the constituencies.  As long-term readers know, I think gaming the system is a dead-end idea once you start to consider the myriad ways in which it can totally backfire, but nevertheless to the extent that it can even theoretically work, it 100% depends on convincing people to vote for two different parties on the two ballots.  There is no planet on which "both votes Alba" is a recipe for a supermajority.

And yet, once again, leading Alba figures are regularly pushing the "game the system for a supermajority" narrative.  There seems to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking.

Angus MacNeil understandably has the zeal of a convert at the moment, and perhaps hasn't realised yet that all Alba members with a mind of their own, of which is he is now one, are merely "expellees in waiting". This is what he had to say today on the supermajority subject - 

"Look at that poll  for the 2026 election. 👇
What does 2nd vote SNP do ?

The answer is that it gives you Reform MSPs. Tory MSPs. And Labour MSPs.

2nd vote SNP helps anti independence parties. 
That will be the effect of 2nd vote SNP in 2026 as it was in 2021.
So Vote #Alba4Indy"

But does that logic actually make any sense?  Here are the seats projections for the Norstat poll from a prediction website -

Constituency seats:

SNP 58
Conservatives 7
Liberal Democrats 5
Labour 3

Regional list seats:

Labour 17
Reform UK 13
Conservatives 12
Greens 7
Liberal Democrats 6
SNP 1

The first thing you'd have to say about the above numbers is that they could be wildly misleading, because they're based on an enormous 16% SNP lead over Labour on the constituency ballot.  Many people think that scale of lead is highly implausible.  If the SNP aren't doing that well in the constituency seats, they stand to be compensated with far more list seats.

But even if you take the numbers at face value, the brutal truth is that they show that the wasted pro-indy votes on the list are both SNP and Alba votes.  The only pro-indy voters who are getting bang for their buck on the list are Green voters.  If you could move votes around like pieces on a chessboard (which in the real world you simply can't do) the obvious way to game the system would be to shift both the SNP's and Alba's list votes to the Greens, and then you'd have your supermajority.

In the Norstat poll Alba were on 5% of the list vote, but any serious analyst will tell you that Norstat regularly overstate Alba's support, which in truth is probably flatlining at 2% or 3% at most.  That means Alba would have to double or triple their current support to move into seat-winning territory.  That's not impossible, but the severe difficulty of the task contrasts with the fact that the Greens are already well into seat-winning territory, and that the SNP would win lots of list seats in the entirely plausible scenario that their constituency support drops back a bit.  So no matter which way you cut it, Alba is statistically not the most promising option for gaming the list vote.  Not even close.

Voters were totally unmoved by the supermajority pitch in 2021, and given that the case is even weaker this time, it's hard to see why Alba would suddenly start cutting through with it.  They'd be much better advised to try to win votes by the conventional method of persuading voters that they are a better party than the SNP and have better policies.  OK, I'm not sure the optimal way of doing that is with the current increasingly right-wing positioning of "it's not racist to take money away from asylum seekers / President-elect Donald Trump deserves greater respect from us / Elon Musk has saved the internet gonnae take me to Mars, hun / Andrew Doyle off GB News is just so goddamn fabulous is he not", but even that is probably preferable to the excruciating embarrassment of making your Party Election Broadcast a three-minute monologue on the d'Hondt formula.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, December 16, 2024

My appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party will be heard in early January

Chris McEleny told me last week that the clerk of the Appeals Committee would be in touch "in due course" about the details of my appeal, and I did wonder when he said that whether the clerk of the Appeals Committee would turn out to be exactly the same person as the clerk of the Disciplinary Committee, who is also exactly the same person as Mr McEleny's own deputy as General Secretary.  The answer is yes.  It's like the Holy Trinity: they're three different roles and yet somehow all the same.  When I was growing up, my uncle, who had been in a Catholic brotherhood for a few years, explained the concept of the Holy Trinity to me and then asked whether I understood it.  I said that I did.  He said: "No you don't.  Nobody understands it.  If you think you've understood it, that means you haven't."  Which, to be fair, could also apply to just about every Kafkaesque twist and turn in the Alba Party's internal procedures.  

My appeal hearing will be on the evening of the 8th of January, which I think might be just about within the 30-day rule that I remember reading somewhere (I can't find it in the main text of the party constitution so it's probably in a separate set of rules governing the Appeals Committee itself).  I was hoping it was going to be a bit earlier than that, because this has been an incredibly stressful and downright nasty process and I want it over.  I'm not going to mince words anymore - it's been an utterly bogus, baseless, malicious, evidence-free "disciplinary" action brought by a vindictive leadership due simply to a personal vendetta against me, which they probably hold for three principal reasons: a) the persistent stand I took in favour of internal democratisation of the party, b) my refusal to meekly put up with low-grade bullying attempts from two very well-connected individuals at in-person meetings of the Constitution Review Group during the spring and subsequently on Twitter, and c) my calling out of blatantly false information provided by the General Secretary during meetings of the Disciplinary Committee at the start of this year (yes, ironically I was an elected member of the Disciplinary Committee until my expulsion).  

At least now the end is in sight - either the Appeals Committee will do the right thing and overturn the upholding of Mr McEleny's malicious action against me, and I can resume my party membership and return to pressing for change to try to ensure that this can never happen to anyone else again, or they will not do the right thing, my expulsion will become irrevocable, and I can finally draw a line under my hellish experience within Alba and look to the future, either in a different party, or as an independent or as a supporter of independents.  

It's likely that I'll have a great deal more to say in the coming weeks and months about the blatant and cynical abuse of power on the part of the General Secretary, and possibly the party chair, that has led to the malicious action against me and against so many other Alba members.  But for now I want to say a few general words about the bankruptcy of Alba's disciplinary process, which I've experienced from both sides.

The essence of the problem, I would suggest, is the hopeless lack of independence of the Disciplinary Committee.  This is an example of the Alba set-up actually being inferior to the SNP's, because on my reading of the SNP constitution the Conduct Committee in that party is genuinely independent of the NEC (at least on paper).  By contrast, Alba's Disciplinary Committee functions effectively as a subcommittee of the NEC.  Although there are six elected members, those are topped up by two NEC appointees (effectively people directly appointed by the party leader), of which one is nominated by the NEC to be the committee's convener.  OK, you might say, that still means the committee is three-quarters elected, but in practice the appointed convener controls the committee to a quite extraordinary degree.  Not only does he or she have the casting vote in the event of a tie, they also determine the format of meetings, can ensure the rights of 'defendants' are interpreted as narrowly as possible, and can prevent committee members from expressing 'undesirable' viewpoints or asking 'unwanted' questions.  So to a large extent, the Disciplinary Committee is under the NEC's direct control.

But even that level of control wasn't enough for the leadership, who at the start of this year (coinciding with my own election to the committee) introduced a set of draconian new rules which shifted power over the disciplinary process away from the Disciplinary Committee and firmly into the hands of the unelected General Secretary and to a lesser extent the unelected party chair.  A new "clerk to the committee" was imposed, who of course just happens to be the same person as the Deputy General Secretary, and who is now present throughout all meetings regardless of whether the committee wants her there or not.  She therefore becomes a brooding presence which is bound to inhibit the free expression of views - because it's an open secret that she'll be reporting back to her boss the General Secretary, to the party chair and probably to half a dozen other people besides.  In the first meeting I took part in, it became obvious that Mr McEleny had told us a direct lie in the paperwork - he had told us that the member who was the subject of the complaint had not expressed any wish to attend the hearing, whereas in fact I knew that wasn't true, because the member in question had contacted me to say that he did wish to attend but that Mr McEleny had ignored his emails.  During the meeting I said something along the lines of "it looks to me like the General Secretary has been playing games", which of course I knew full well that "the clerk to the committee" would report straight back to her boss.  That may well have been the moment when the seeds were first sown for Mr McEleny's vendetta against me.

But the much more important effect of the new rules is the total power they give to the General Secretary in determining what complaints reach the Disciplinary Committee.  Mr McEleny, despite being an entirely unelected party employee, has an absolute right to lodge a complaint against a party member himself and compel the Disciplinary Committee to hear it, but he also has an absolute right to reject any complaint submitted by anyone else and to prevent the committee from even considering it.  Let's be blunt - Mr McEleny has not only been making full use of that dictatorial power, he's been abusing it for all it's worth.  Every single complaint that was heard during my time on the committee could be very easily traced back to Mr McEleny's own vested interests, or the vested interests of the wider leadership group.  In at least two cases, it was ultimately about a wish to hush up the strong and probably well-founded suspicions that the 2023 internal elections were at least partly rigged.  By contrast, complaints submitted by ordinary party members with no connection to the party leadership seem to be of no interest whatever to Mr McEleny, and he routinely dismisses them out of hand.  Which is highly convenient when those complaints are about prominent figures in the party.

It's also worth noting that the right of the 'defendant' to be present at the hearing is largely a sham.  You might remember that my sense was that I had only been allowed to be present at the hearing about me for around seven or eight minutes.  I was later able to work out that it had actually been twelve minutes.  Assuming the hearing probably lasted for an hour or so, that means I was only actually there for 20% of it.  I have a fair idea of what was going on in my absence for the first half-hour of the meeting, and that was something I certainly should have been present for and been allowed to hear - but that would have involved me being made aware of what I was actually being accused of and being allowed to answer it.  And that would never have done, would it?

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Sunday, December 15, 2024

An embarrassment of hitches: catastrophic leadership ratings for Starmer leave him trailing all of his opponents by light-years

I mentioned yesterday that there was a new (or new-ish) GB-wide poll from More In Common, and although it didn't show any further movement against Labour and in fact showed a minor dip in Reform UK support, it nevertheless served up yet more dreadful leadership ratings for Keir Starmer.

Net ratings (More In Common, 6th-10th December 2024):

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -8
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -9
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -10
Keir Starmer (Labour): -35
Rachel Reeves (Labour): -35

The -10 rating for Farage is derived from 27% of the sample having a positive opinion of him and 38% having a negative opinion of him.  (I know those numbers don't quite tally up - the discrepancy is caused by rounding.)  That latter figure is hugely significant, because the equivalent figure in years gone by was often 60% or above.  If 62% of the British electorate are not actively hostile to him, there is no longer any ceiling on Reform support, or at least not one low enough to make it impossible for the party to win a general election.

On the head-to-head question about whether Starmer or Badenoch would be the better Prime Minister, Starmer still leads by a slender margin of 28% to 23%.  But that's nowhere near as big an advantage as it should be, given the general consensus that Badenoch is hapless, and the 49% of the sample who answered "neither of the above" should be of huge concern to both leaders.  With increasing evidence that British politics is now a three-way battle for power, I'm not sure how much longer More in Common can really justify excluding Farage from the head-to-head.  There'll probably end up being three questions - Starmer v Badenoch, Starmer v Farage, and Badenoch v Farage.

Incidentally, there are also approval ratings for the two largest parties, and they show the Tories on a dismal -28, with Labour on an even more dismal -35.  So, oddly, Badenoch is outperforming her party for now, although that's probably just because she's still relatively little-known and many people have yet to form an opinion of her.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

An under-appreciated side-effect of the Reform UK surge: it may put proportional representation for Westminster back on the agenda

Since the penny started to drop that Nigel Farage and Reform may be emerging as serious contenders for power at the next general election, I've been repeatedly making the point that this could potentially have the side-benefit of jolting the Scottish public into recognising the urgent need for independence.  But I've also been trying to think if there are any other more direct benefits.  It suddenly struck me that, amazing though it may seem, Reform do actually have one genuinely good policy, and it relates to something that I've supported for even longer than I've supported independence - namely proportional representation.  So, on paper at least, a Reform government ought to finally deliver a cherished dream of progressive politicians down the ages, going back to the likes of Jo Grimond, Roy Jenkins and Shirley Williams.

There is, of course, a snag.  Suppose the Reform bandwagon keeps rolling to such an extent that they get into the mid-to-high 30s and end up winning an outright majority.  Would they really stick to their policy on proportional representation, or would they (like PR-curious Prime Ministers such as Tony Blair before them) suddenly become born-again converts to the dubious virtues of first-past-the-post?  Forgive me for being cynical about NIGEL FARAGE of all people, but I think it would be the latter.  He probably wouldn't officially ditch the policy, but he would say there wasn't enough time for it because there are so many other more important things to be getting on with.

In truth, though, it's hard to imagine Reform going from single digits to an outright majority in one jump.  A more likely scenario for them 'winning' the general election might be something more like this, which is based on yesterday's Techne poll but with the numbers swapped around to put Reform ahead - 

Reform UK 27%
Conservatives 25%
Labour 22%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 7%
SNP 3%

Let me make clear that I agree with everyone who says that Electoral Calculus is a dud projection model, but as it's the easiest one to find and use, here is what it says the above would translate into in terms of seats - 

Conservatives 179
Reform UK 176
Labour 164
Liberal Democrats 70
SNP 23
Greens 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Others 29

The only viable government in this scenario would involve some kind of deal between the Tories and Reform UK, probably a full coalition with Kemi Badenoch as Prime Minister.  But there would still be a very, very strong incentive for Reform to make proportional representation a condition of that deal.  They'd know it might make them kingmakers for decades to come, and would increase their chances of sometimes being the largest party and getting their leader installed as PM.  Unlike Nick Clegg in 2010, they might not back off from the demand, and they would have far more numerical leverage than he did anyway.

So it would be a straightforward choice for the Tories - buy themselves five years in government but at the cost of probably never being able to win an overall majority ever again, or do what Harold Wilson did in February 1974, ie. reject all overtures, form a minority government on a caretaker basis, and hope for the best in a snap election a few months later.  I'm really not sure the Tories would make the same choice as Wilson, because with the momentum that would be behind Reform by that stage, a deal might look necessary if the Tories are to survive as an electoral force.

There's also another point: if a major Reform UK breakthrough starts to look inevitable as the next election approaches, and if Labour's chances of winning a majority or remaining the largest party look slim to non-existent, would it not make sense for the Labour government to pre-empt the situation and introduce proportional representation themselves?  In many ways it would, but I still don't think they would do it.  Rational self-interest has its limits, as we've seen many times before.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Reform UK support climbs to new high watermark in Techne poll

I saw someone on Twitter earlier declare that "the Reform surge is a myth", in reaction to a More in Common poll showing a slight dip in Reform support. The snag was that the More in Common fieldwork was actually less recent than for the Find Out Now poll that had Reform in second place, ahead of the Tories.  And now we have a new Techne poll, with slightly more recent fieldwork than Find Out Now, and which as far as I can see has Reform UK hitting all-time high levels of support with Techne.  It's certainly the highest since the general election, and having had a look I can't see anything higher from before the election either.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Techne, 11th-12th December 2024):

Labour 27% (-)
Conservatives 25% (-)
Reform UK 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-1)
Greens 7% (-)
SNP 2% (-)

Given that we've seen polls from another firm showing Reform UK in a clear second place, it may seem strange that a poll putting them third can represent an all-time high.  But all polling firms have their own 'house effects', and Techne has tended to be one of the less favourable firms for Reform UK.  Until recently, every Techne poll since the election has had Reform in the teens.  The last poll had them jumping to 21%, and now there's been a further slight increase to 22%.

This keeps open the possibility that one of the more Reform-friendly firms may show an outright lead for the party in the near future - and then we'd really start to see what the horrifying prospect of a Farage government does to support for independence in Scotland.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Friday, December 13, 2024

Is the Alba leadership's right-wing stance on asylum seekers an early indication that they are intentionally reinventing the party as a "pro-indy Reform"?

It's just coincidence, but while I've been dealing over the last few weeks with the action the Alba Party leadership took against me, I've also been gradually making my way through the 1970s BBC drama series Shoulder to Shoulder, which covers the history of the suffragettes.  When I saw it was on iPlayer, it caught my eye, because it was repeated on BBC2 when I was a teenager, and I remember seeing a couple of episodes and thinking it was quite good.

My knowledge of the suffragettes was previously quite patchy, and one thing I didn't realise was that although Emmeline and Christabel Pankhurst initially set up the Women's Social and Political Union as a very democratic organisation, they later transformed it into an absolute dictatorship where no disagreement with their own policies or decisions was tolerated, and dissenters were instantly expelled.  Absurdly, that culminated in the expulsion of Sylvia Pankhurst, Emmeline's own daughter and Christabel's own sister.  Prior to that, the Pethick-Lawrences, who had built up the organisation almost from scratch, were unceremoniously expelled because they questioned the wisdom of militant tactics that incorporated severe law-breaking such as arson.

Emmeline and Christabel's justification was that they were at war with the government, and in a state of war you can't have democratic politics as usual - you need an unquestioned leader, an unquestioned chain of command, and iron discipline of members behind any decision taken.

Now, does that remind you of anything?  A few weeks ago, the Alba leadership sent out an email revealing that internal democracy within the party was going to be completely suspended for several months, and that was necessary because the current executive team was supposedly uniquely familiar with Alex Salmond's private strategic thinking and thus uniquely well-placed to interpret and carry forward his wishes and plans.  In other words, the party leadership now derives its legitimacy more from a kind of 'divine selection' (the words "Salmond blood" have even been used) than from democratic election.  Alba's mission going forward will be to identify and do whatever "Alex Salmond would have wanted" - or rather whatever the self-selecting elite say he would have wanted, which will not always necessarily be the same thing. Presumably this is justified because Mr Salmond was, in a sense, "at war" just like the Pankhursts were, and had an unparalleled insight as leader into how London rule in Scotland could be ended.

Because iron discipline behind Mr Salmond's strategies and plans is required, rank-and-file members who are unhappy with the party's direction have not been encouraged to use the party's internal democratic processes to make the case for change, but have instead been told that "perhaps Alba is not the party for you". (Chris McEleny literally said that a few months ago in an email reply to an Alba member.)  Those of us naive enough to assume that the internal democratic processes were there for a reason and that we could just get on with using them to press for change have found ourselves faced with trumped-up charges leading to either suspension or outright expulsion.  Many people, of course, have simply jumped before they were pushed.

Alba in its own self-image now resembles a Leninist-style "vanguard party", which prefers to have a small number of people slavishly loyal to the leadership rather than a much larger number of people who might bring with them a plurality of views and friendly democratic disagreement over policy and strategy.  That means the party has become the complete opposite of what it appeared to be when we all first joined in 2021.  At that time it seemed to be an "all comers' party" - to join all you needed to be was an independence supporter, and from there you would have an equal stake and an equal opportunity to shape the party's direction.  I remember, for example, the euphoria after an early Alba women's conference, when all of the women who had joined the party were able to get together and decide for themselves what the policy on women was going to be.  That certainly wouldn't be happening now.

It seems to me there are two big problems with Alba's authoritarian and disciplinarian approach. The first is that I don't think any political party can function as a sort of 'memorial stone' to one man.  It will become fossilised if it tries.  However fully-formed Mr Salmond's private strategy was, and however thoroughly the current leadership think they have digested it, politics is a dynamic process and there will always be unexpected changes of circumstances that you need to react to spontaneously and creatively.  Mr Salmond can no longer help with that.  The Alba Party will always need to have a leader grounded in the here and now - which means that person cannot be the de facto "deputy" to someone who is sadly no longer with us.

The second problem is that, if I'm being honest, I'm not convinced that Mr Salmond's strategies during his time as Alba leader would actually have led to independence.  When I was on the Alba NEC myself in 2021-22, there were a few things that concerned me.  I was worried about the ever-increasing chatter that Alba might stand a large number of candidates against the SNP at the Westminster general election, but whenever those worries were raised, we were basically told to shut down all thought about the subject for the time being and unite in the interim behind the "Scotland United" holding position.  The problem was that "Scotland United" struck me as part of a very obvious and transparent choreography preparing the ground for a large-scale Alba intervention at the general election, something which I assumed the leadership had already privately decided upon.  I retrospect it looks like my guess was right.  I thought we as the NEC should have been discussing, and perhaps challenging, the true underlying purpose of the Scotland United proposal.  But there was never any opportunity to do that.

Towards the end of my time on the NEC, Nicola Sturgeon unexpectedly announced her plan for a de facto referendum, and I was also baffled and dismayed by the Alba leadership's reaction to that.  I thought we should have embraced the news and dared Sturgeon to keep her word.  Instead, the prospect of an exercise in national self-determination seemed to weirdly antagonise the Alba leadership, who redoubled their determination to bring Nicola Sturgeon down as First Minister.  She eventually did resign, and what good did that do anyone?  Her only two possible successors fell over themselves to ditch the de facto at breakneck speed.  Now, I'm not naive enough to think that Sturgeon would have definitely kept her word if she'd stayed on.  But even if there'd been only a 1 in 10 chance of her seeing the de facto plan through, a true gambler would have given her that chance, because anything that replaced her was only going to move the cause of independence backwards.  No-one will ever dissuade me that the Alba leadership made a strategic blunder during that episode - always assuming, of course, that independence was actually the object of the exercise for them, rather than revenge against Nicola Sturgeon for its own sake.

The other startling thing about the Pankhursts is that, after moving to a dictatorship model, they also (with the honourable exception of Sylvia Pankhurst) moved away from their socialist roots in Keir Hardie's Independent Labour Party and swung dramatically rightwards.  Adela Pankhurst emigrated to Australia and eventually became an out-and-out fascist.  Emmeline and Christabel became born-again British nationalists during World War I, and endorsed the notorious 'white feather' movement on the grounds that young men owed it to women to lay down their lives for the Empire.  After the war, Emmeline brought her political transition to its natural conclusion by standing for parliament as a Tory.

Alba's authoritarian, 'vanguard party' turn does not automatically mean it will also shift to the right.  But there are some troubling signs.  Neale Hanvey has repeatedly praised Elon Musk to the skies and even publicly asked him for funding.  Numerous Alba spokespeople have demanded that Donald Trump should be treated with greater respect than (for example) the Greens are currently showing him, which strikes me as a very odd wedge issue to alight upon.  And today it was reported that Chris McEleny has broken ranks with all other progressive parties in the Scottish Parliament by defending the Tories for seeking the withholding of funds from asylum seekers.  All of these are examples of things Reform UK would be entirely comfortable saying.

Right from the start in 2021, some people tried to paint Alba as a right-wing party and I scorned that idea.  But for the first time I'm starting to wonder.  For some time now it's been pointed out in some quarters (including by me) that from a purely Machiavellian point of view, a right-wing pro-indy party with a degree of hostility to immigration might tap into a gap in the market and draw Yes voters away from Reform UK.  But if Mr McEleny has decided that Alba is going to be the party to fill that gap, it's an obvious slap in the face for anyone who joined Alba in the 2021 on the firm promise that it would be a left-leaning, social democratic party in the mould of the Salmond-era SNP.

Is Mr McEleny's pronouncement an example of "doing whatever Alex Salmond would have wanted"?  I can't deny the possibility that he's carrying out a pre-prepared, Salmond-endorsed plan, but ah hae ma doots.  Mr Salmond always used to reliably come down on the progressive side of most issues, and I struggle to imagine him even risking the appearance of demonising asylum seekers.  I suspect Mr McEleny has set in train what may be a lengthy process of doing things in Mr Salmond's name that Mr Salmond would not actually have done himself.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Another day, another Neale Hanvey tweet: without a shred of irony, he blasts the Green Party of England & Wales as "just unbelievable" and "completely out of control" for expelling Shahrar Ali (actually a two-year suspension with conditions on re-entry)

So are there any differences between Shahrar Ali and the people who have been purged from Alba?  I can only really think of one - Shahrar Ali didn't just criticise what his party's leadership were doing, he also took them to court.  Geoff Bush, myself and all the others that Mr McEleny has targeted for punitive action through the Alba "disciplinary" process have never done anything even remotely like that.

Incidentally, on the subject of the distinction between "expulsions" and "lengthy suspensions with conditions attached to re-entry", I heard on the grapevine recently that somebody who was supposedly "suspended for six months" by Alba (for a completely ludicrous reason, of course) got to the end of that six months, naturally assumed she'd automatically be able to resume her membership, but was instead informed by Mr McEleny that if she wanted to "rejoin" the party, she'd have to apply to the NEC for permission - which is precisely the same procedure as for someone who has been expelled or been deemed to have "publicly resigned from the party".  So it seems that in Alba, the distinction between suspension and expulsion is one of window-dressing only.

In case anyone wrongly assumes that only a relatively small percentage of the Alba membership is being affected by the McEleny Purges, I'd draw your attention to this comment on an earlier thread from a former Alba member - 

"James - you also have to bear in mind that the numbers of those who have left the Alba Party, either through resignation or stopping their subs, are considerably greater than those who have been expelled or suspended. Some of us were threatened in one way or another - with being expelled from a meeting for pressing a point, such as "where in the constitution does it say this?" We decided not to tolerate the kind of authoritarian and corrupt behaviour which seeks to pass constitutional amendments sight unseen by a conference (indeed some of us spoke out on this matter), but decides that competent constitutional amendments should not be seen by conference. The only effects of these competent constitutional amendments would have been:-

1) to permit Office Bearers to have a say about the work of HQ staff (rather than be dictated by the party chair and line managed by the unelected and unelectable General Secretary)

2) to prevent the General Secretary from redirecting complaints to himself, instead of referring them on to the Disciplinary Committee

3) to ensure that the correct representation on the Conference Committee was adhered to, according to the party constitution, so that NEC members could not dominate.

Of course, other matters, such as the dominance of that committee by the party chair and the failure of that committee to elect a chair on an annual basis, were more difficult to deal with, because of space on the conference agenda!"

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction: 32% of Reform UK voters in Scotland would vote Yes in a new independence referendum

A commenter on the previous thread said that he wished he could see "some Scottish polling cross tabs on support for Reform among Yes/No and Leave/Remain voters".  As it happens, that information is more or less available in the tables from the Norstat poll at the weekend.

Holyrood list voting intentions of those who would currently vote Yes in an independence referendum:

SNP 55%
Greens 11%
Labour 10%
Alba 8%
Reform UK 7%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Conservatives 5%

(Bear in mind the usual health warning that Norstat regularly overstate Alba's support.)

Holyrood list voting intentions of those who would currently vote No in an independence referendum:

Conservatives 32%
Labour 27%
Reform UK 18%
Liberal Democrats 15%
SNP 3%
Greens 2%
Alba 1%

What's striking here is just how appallingly badly the SNP do among No voters.  They're sometimes accused (sometimes even by me) of abandoning independence, but the public clearly don't see it that way, because if it wasn't for the support of Yessers, the SNP would barely even exist as an electoral force.  Reform UK do more than twice as well among Yes voters as the SNP do among No voters - perhaps due to the significant minority of Yessers who support Brexit, or perhaps due to the immigration issue.

How Reform UK voters on the Holyrood list would vote in a Scottish independence referendum:

Yes 32%
No 68%

There are no figures for how current Brexiteers and Remainers would vote on the Holyrood list - only for Remain and Leave voters from the actual 2016 referendum.

Holyrood list voting intentions of those who voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum:

SNP 36%
Labour 20%
Conservatives 12%
Greens 10%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Reform UK 6%
Alba 5%
 
Holyrood list voting intentions of those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum:

Conservatives 28%
Reform UK 25%
SNP 19%
Labour 12%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Alba 4%
Greens 2%

Also of interest is the breakdown by country of birth, which does not follow the pattern you'd intuitively expect.  6% of English-born respondents would vote Reform UK, compared with 13% of Scottish-born respondents.  Bear in mind, though, that the English-born subsample is relatively small, so the results may not be statistically reliable.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Il Sorpasso: new Britain-wide poll shows Reform UK overtaking the Tories to become the leading party of the right

I suppose in a way this poll is superficially a relief for Keir Starmer and Labour, because it shows them recovering three percentage points of support and bouncing back from third place to first.  However, the consequences for both themselves and the whole UK if future polls confirm that Reform UK has emerged as the leading party of the right will be incalculable.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 11th December 2024):

Labour 26% (+3)
Reform UK 25% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
Greens 9% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

As I pointed out the other day, there no longer seems to be such an obvious ceiling on Reform UK support, because polls show that only a minority of people in Britain are now actively hostile to Farage.  He obviously has more charisma than Kemi Badenoch, it looks like he may soon have more funding than she does.  A few high-profile defections from Tory to Reform could lead to enough Tory voters following suit to push Reform to the kind of level of support (say 35%) at which it could win a general election in 2028 or 2029 and form a government.

I remain of the view that the opening up of this horrific possibility makes Scottish independence considerably more likely.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

"There were reasons. What's that? You want me to tell you what the reasons were? Oh, you know, reasons. Reasons of some description. Reasons of a distinctly reason-type variety. Look, please stop asking me what the reasons were, you're upsetting me. YOU KNOW THE REASONS!"

My final reply was a quote-tweet, because "Nodrog" blocked me before I could reply directly.  But perish the thought that he was concerned about getting himself into a pickle if he was pressed any further.

As far as Neale Hanvey is concerned, I do have to say that his timing in making a renewed song and dance over the last week about bullying, unjust expulsions and forced departures in the SNP has been truly extraordinary.  It's one thing to turn a blind eye to bullying, unjust expulsions and forced departures in your own party, but to do that while repeatedly lambasting exactly the same behaviour in a rival party, is a pretty blatant double-standard.  Indeed there's a rather more direct word for it than double-standard.  I and others publicly supported Neale when he was unjustly suspended from the SNP in the middle of the 2019 general election, but so far there's been no support coming in the reciprocal direction.  In fact the silence has been deafening.

To return to "Nodrog", I was trying to think who he reminded me of when he kept insisting there were "reasons" but refused to provide any specifics.  But then another tweet came along and I suddenly remembered in a blinding flash - 

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

If Alba intervene in constituency races in 2026, they will harm independence and harm themselves on the list

It's being reported in the Press & Journal that Christina Hendry, the niece of the late Alex Salmond, is planning to stand as an Alba candidate in the Banffshire & Buchan Coast constituency in the 2026 Holyrood election.  Mr Salmond was previously planning to do so himself, and although I always thought it was extremely unwise to abandon Alba's status from 2021 as a list-only party, it was at least possible to construct a case that as the former MP and MSP for the area, and as a major national figure, he would have been competitive and might have had an outside chance of winning.  

By contrast, Ms Hendry is little-known and her chances of winning are zero.  So if she takes a non-trivial share of the vote, the only possible effect of that will be to increase the chances of a Tory win in what is an extremely tight SNP-Tory marginal.  The SNP won by a margin of just 2.3% in 2021, and in the equivalent Westminster seat the margin was identical in July's general election, in spite of Douglas Ross' very best efforts to hand the seat to the SNP on a plate.

If I can just gently say to Alba members (I was one myself until a few days ago), I know how angry you are with the SNP, and I totally understand that anger because it's very unlikely that independence will be seriously pursued for as long as John Swinney is SNP leader.  But there is no scenario in which replacing an SNP constituency MSP with a Tory constituency MSP can help the cause of independence.  It can only do harm.

The place to offer a radical pro-independence alternative to the SNP is on the list ballot, where seats can actually be won.  Playing silly buggers on the constituency ballot can only detract from that alternative. Remember that Alba was explicitly launched in 2021 as a list-only party, and by going down this new path, the party is simply underscoring how much the original concept has mutated since then.  Rather than a cooperative party that wants to work with others to bring about independence, Alba now looks like a harm-the-SNP-for-harm's-sake party, which if anything will put Yes supporters off from backing the party on the list.

For full disclosure, Christina Hendry is a member of Alba's Disciplinary Committee, and although I was only allowed into last week's hearing for a fleeting few minutes, I did see her there (I think she was one of about five or six in attendance), and based on views I've heard her express in the past, I do not have the slightest doubt that she will have been one of the people who voted for my expulsion from the party.  But regular readers will know that hasn't affected what I've said above, because I've been consistently saying exactly the same thing since I joined Alba in the spring of 2021 - except in very rare circumstances (such as by-elections where a high-profile candidate is available), the party should avoid first-past-the-post contests and focus entirely on proportional representation elections where there is actually a chance of getting elected.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

An unweighted Yes vote of 60.4% in the Norstat poll became 53.8% in the weighted results

Similar to that sensation of 'feeling your ears burning', I can sometimes sense when Professor John Robertson of Global Ferry News fame is about to write a snarky blogpost about Scot Goes Pop, because it's often presaged by him attempting to leave a comment here.  There was a comment yesterday or the day before with all the usual hallmarks, so I took a look at his blog, and this time there was no post about SGP, but what I did find was a post with the following headline: "Did the Sunday Times hide around 60% support for independence by dramatically reducing the number of 2014 Yes voters in their poll sample from 387 down to only 278?"

That's what John Rentoul would call a QTWTAIN (Question To Which The Answer Is No).  Of course the Sunday Times did no such thing - they have no role in determining the weightings used in any poll, they would never think of making such a request and Norstat would refuse such a request if it was made.  That said, I've looked at the data tables and it's true that the difference between the unweighted and the weighted numbers is pretty extreme.  The Yes vote in the unweighted numbers is 60.4%, whereas in the weighted numbers it's 53.8%.  OK, even normal demographic weightings can often bring down the Yes vote, because there might be too many young people in a sample, or too many SNP voters, or whatever.  But I very much doubt if that sort of thing would have had quite such a dramatic effect - the major explanation in this case is almost certainly direct weighting by each respondent's recollection of how they voted in the 2014 referendum, which of course took place more than a decade ago, thus opening up a risk of significant levels of false recall.  That's one of the reasons Ipsos have cited for not weighting by recalled 2014 vote, incidentally.

In the overall Norstat sample, before the likelihood to vote filter is applied, 43.9% of respondents claim to recall voting Yes in 2014, and only 30.0% claim to recall voting No.  A drastic adjustment has been made to bring those numbers into line with the actual 2014 result.  In fairness, there was initially a very good reason for introducing 2014 weighting, because polling companies had systemically overestimated the Yes vote by a small amount in the 2014 campaign.  But after more than a decade that adjustment is getting harder and harder to justify, and it's impossible to rule out the possibility that it may be artificially skewing poll results towards No and giving us a totally false impression of the state of play.  It must be very unusual to weight poll results by an electoral event that took place more than ten years ago - I'm struggling to think of any other examples of that happening, even internationally.  Somewhere in the deepest recesses of their minds, the heads of polling firms must be gearing up towards a review of this problem, sooner or later.  

*  *  *

We should now think about calling a national holiday, because that rarest of rare things has just happened - Chris McEleny has actually responded to an email.  Apparently the clerk of the committee will be in touch in due course about the arrangements for my appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party.  I'll be interested to see what "in due course" actually means, because from my recollection of the party constitution (which I can no longer read because I'm barred from the party website), the appeal is supposed to be heard within an extremely tight timetable.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

I have now lodged my appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party

So some personal news - a few minutes ago I emailed Chris McEleny to inform him that I wish to appeal against the Disciplinary Committee's decision last Thursday night to expel me from the Alba Party, and to set out my reasons for appealing - which, as you can imagine, are extremely extensive.  I would have preferred to take a bit longer over the preparation of my appeal submission, but one of the frustrations of this process has been the way that Alba HQ has allowed it to endlessly drag on, and I don't want to give them any excuse for further delay.

As I've noted before, Mr McEleny has completely ignored all of the emails I have sent him throughout the "disciplinary" process (with the possible exception of one).  It must be hoped that he would not pull a stunt like that again, given that under the Alba constitution, my right to lodge an appeal is absolute and unconditional.  Unfortunately, though, I was told by one of the people who were expelled from the party earlier this year that he had tried to lodge an appeal but his email was completely ignored.  As far as I know that appeal never took place. So, as a precaution, I've copied my email to the Deputy General Secretary Corri Wilson, to the party chair Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, and also to Suzanne Blackley, who as far as I know is still convener of the Appeals Committee.  I haven't copied it to the acting party leader Kenny MacAskill yet, but I will do if it becomes necessary.

I would hope that things will be done by the book this time, but I've learned to have extremely low expectations.

Questions for Pat McFadden

The Labour Cabinet minister Pat McFadden was asked on Sky News about Israel's illegal invasion of Syria, and he replied that Israel was "making sure its position in the Golan is secure".  That's a rather startling line of argument, because the Golan Heights is not part of Israel - it's only controlled by Israel because of a previous illegal invasion of Syria during the Six Day War of 1967.  Almost every country in the world continues to recognise the Golan as an integral part of Syria, and the UK is no exception.  So McFadden seems to genuinely believe that the desire to make one illegally occupied part of Syria "secure for Israel" is a perfectly logical and reasonable excuse for illegally invading yet another part of Syria.

McFadden was then asked by Kay Burley whether the UK supported Israel's actions, and he replied "We will always support Israel's right to defend itself and make itself secure".  That's a very clear answer - he had already characterised Israel's invasion as an exercise in "making itself secure", and given that the UK will "always" support any such action, he is therefore inescapably saying that the UK supports Israel's illegal invasion of land that the UK regards as Syrian sovereign territory.

This raises a number of obvious questions - 

1) Given that the Labour leadership characterised 7th October as a Hamas invasion of Israel, and said that Israel had a right to "defend herself" against the invasion, does Syria also have a right to "defend herself" against the Israeli invasion?

2) If not, why not?  Is it because "invasions to feel secure" are in a different category from other types of invasions?  If so, who makes the certification?  Indeed, is it a self-certification process?  Did the invasion become acceptable simply because Israel put out a press release saying they were invading for security?  Isn't that pretty much what Russia did when it invaded Ukraine?

3) Does the Labour blank cheque of "always" supporting invasions to help secure previously conquered territory only apply to Israel, or can other countries benefit from this exciting opportunity?  

4) If it's an Israel-only thing, what can other countries do to become more like Israel and gain similar special privileges?  Perhaps they could install a fugitive from justice, wanted by the world's highest court for war crimes, as their head of government?  Hang on, doesn't that describe Russia again?

5) Come to think of it, if you were trying to work out whether a country's claim to have illegally invaded a neighbouring sovereign state "for security" was a cock-and-bull story or not, wouldn't you normally be inclined to be more sceptical rather than less sceptical if that country happened to be led by a wanted war criminal?

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The US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller is without doubt one of the most preposterous, grotesque figures of the modern age, but even he exceeded himself on the hypocrisy stakes by declaring that it would be good if the International Criminal Court took action against Assad, because the US supports the work of the ICC and it only ever had a dispute with them over "jurisdiction" on the question of the arrest warrant for Netanyahu.  Hmmm.  What Biden actually said about the Netanyahu warrant was that it was "outrageous", and that it implied there was moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas, and that America would always stand with its beloved Bibi.  Yeah, that sounds very much like a minor technical quibble over jurisdiction.

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Monday, December 9, 2024

Norstat poll reveals John Swinney is settling into the role and showing sureness-of-touch - and he made a great speech at conference

Before anyone bites my head off, the headline is merely a running in-joke from the comments section.

The Sunday Times paywall was proving more of a barrier than usual to finding out the full Norstat poll results on Saturday night, but I've now caught up with the remaining results, which are basically leadership ratings and questions about the Scottish Budget.  The leadership figures in particular bolster the impression that the 2026 election is now very much the SNP's to lose.

Net ratings for party leaders:

John Swinney (SNP): -7
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -17
Russell Findlay (Conservatives): - 25
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -29
Keir Starmer (Labour): -32

I think the public, both north and south of the border, have now made up their minds about Starmer, and his personal ratings are likely to remain thoroughly dismal for however long he stays on as Prime Minister - barring some kind of freakish event akin to the Falklands War or the pandemic.  So that means he's going to be a millstone around the neck of Labour in Scotland going into the election, and to offset that effect they would really want to have a very popular leader at Scottish level.  Instead Sarwar continues to trail Swinney and by a bigger margin than before.

It's been ages since we last saw a head-to-head Swinney v Sarwar "Who would be the best First Minister?" question from Redfield & Wilton, but if a poll like that was conducted now I would be amazed if it didn't show a big Swinney lead - remember that even Humza Yousaf usually led Sarwar on the head-to-head, despite being behind Sarwar on the net ratings.

So far at least, the Budget has proved to be very shrewd and effective in terms of its political impact, with overwhelming public support for four of the six specific measures that Norstat polled about.  The two more controversial items were ending the two-child cap, which is supported by the public but only by a margin of 38% to 27%, and free bus travel for asylum seekers, which depressingly is opposed by the public by a significant margin of 48% to 25%.  Interestingly, after the UK Budget, polls showed that voters were in favour of Rachel Reeves' individual measures but didn't like the package as a whole, whereas in the Norstat poll more respondents think the Scottish Budget will make themselves better off than think it will make them worse off, and a plurality think it will also make the country as a whole better off.  So that looks like a comprehensive success story for Shona Robison and John Swinney.

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