In spite of my ongoing Kafkaesque experiences with the Alba Party, I won't be churlish - the new Find Out Now poll is decent for them, putting them on 6% of the list vote and a projected three list seats. However, as far as I can see, Find Out Now have no track record of polling Holyrood voting intentions, so there's no baseline to measure from, meaning it's not possible to say whether there's any sort of upward trend for Alba. It may just be that Find Out Now are like Norstat and will produce higher Alba numbers than other firms due to a 'house effect'.
One thing I am sure of, however, is that this tweet from Alba HQ man Robert Reid is just very silly propaganda -
"Great to see yet another polling company projecting ALBA are set to break through in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2026
Still a lot of work to do but a clear trend is developing"
My question was "'Yet another'? Who are the others?!". Reid replied by claiming that the recent Norstat poll showed Alba on course for one seat, but that's based on an unofficial projection done by the Green activist Allan Faulds for his own website. The Norstat poll was commissioned by the Sunday Times, who asked Professor John Curtice to calculate an official seats projection - and his projection for Alba was zero seats.
In any case, the words "yet another" clearly imply that lots of polling companies, not just one or two, are showing Alba on course for seats. Well, let's see, shall we? Here is what the most recent poll from each firm shows for Alba -
Norstat: 5% of the list vote, zero seats.
Survation: 3% of the list vote, zero seats.
Opinium: Seemingly didn't even offer Alba as an option.
Redfield & Wilton: 1% of the list vote, zero seats.
Savanta: Seemingly didn't even offer Alba as an option.
YouGov: 2% of the list vote, zero seats.
Ipsos: 1% of the list vote, zero seats.
Far from being "yet another" polling company showing Alba on course for seats, it turns out that Find Out Now are in fact the only polling company to be doing so. If a "clear trend is developing", it's that Alba are on course to win no seats at all.
In my several years as an Alba member, I lost count of the number of times the leadership cited bogus evidence that the party was on the brink of that ever-elusive electoral breakthrough, and Reid's propaganda tweet is, I'm afraid, just the latest example.
What's the world coming to? 17/6 for a loaf!
ReplyDeleteOpinium and Savanta have predicted it best imo. The clear trend developing is that Alba will have eaten itself before HR26.
ReplyDeleteYou are being polite. He is lying. Alba is hopefully dead in the water. Nasty bunch.
ReplyDeleteIt depends how things develop in the real world but dispassionate tactical voting may still point towards an Alba list vote for some of us.
ReplyDeleteIn my case it won't be any more of a vote of confidence in the party than my likely, tactical vote for the SNP in the constituency section.
Yeah I mean when you listen to people like Kenny MacAskill you can tell that he has genuine passion for independence just like Salmond did. People like that have the capacity to reach people on an emotive level & that's badly needed when we have a segment of the electorate scunnered and contemplating abstaining.
DeleteIn the real world your tactical vote is most likely going to be for the green candidate. In the past couple of hours we know that two prominent Alba officials have lied. There is a limit to tactical voting, and the tactical decision itself cannot be based on anything Alba say.
DeleteThe same Greens who implemented the unpopular policies the SNP got the blame for (hence gone are the days of the SNP being above the 30% range) and also said that independence isn't a red line for them and they would be willing to work with a Labour administration at Holyrood?
DeleteYes that’s right those same greens, because not everyone believes what you have just said, and the unpopular policies you refer to actually had broad cross party support until the unionists abandoned principled beliefs to score political points.
DeleteIt's not the broad cross party support that decides whether to vote at all, and who to vote for in an election. Nor is it them actually in the firing line as Government.
DeleteYIR2. If you are replying to anon at 1.46 you completely misunderstand what and who I am talking about. A few sherries too many :)
DeleteAnon at 7:53 AM
DeleteIf you read Anon at 9:27 PM, and read the Anon reply at 1:46 AM, and then my comment at 2:11 AM, it might become clear to you that I agree with Anon at 9:27 PM in respect of the SNP taking the blame for the Green's badly formulated policies and agenda, hence at least a part of the reason 500,000 SNP voters stayed at home for the General Election in 2024, and am disagreeing with Anon at 1:46 AM who said "because not everyone believes what you have just said" - it should be clear to you that I agree wrt the SNP taking the blame for Green policies (and so do many others), and incidentally indeed that Slater was on TV saying that Independence wasn't a red line for any deal with Labour, though I don't agree about the 30% in the polls as some are showing more than that already, and that I think that the deflection of Anon at 1:46 AM saying policies had broad cross party support until unionists abandoned their principles does not address in any way shape or form, the reason that so many voters - 500,000 in the GE - abandoned the SNP; as basically voters care little for attempts by the staunch supporters of the SNP to lay the blame elsewhere for the policies that the Scottish Government, mainly comprising SNP MSPs, tried to implement even if the likes of the Deposit Return Scheme was badly thought out and is costing hundreds of millions of pounds, badly needed in the face of a current cost of living crisis.
Hope I made it easier to understand and you could follow that!
Who would be daft enough to put forward their name for election? Oops I forgot the executive who are self appointed egos.
ReplyDeleteKenny Macaskill, Neale Harvey, Angus MacNeil, Ash Regan, George Kerevan etc.
ReplyDeleteWould rate all of them higher than most of the SNP MSP's we have atm, especially all the ones we'll all go "Who?" when they stand for re-election.
You're easily impressed.
DeletePossibly, but you fail the test Lomax.
Delete"Who ?". That'll be Alba in 2026 (if they last that long !)
DeleteMcCaskill if he can drop the conspiracy nonsense, perhaps. The rest? Absolute second raters.
ReplyDeleteAlba couldna mak a breakthrough whan they were led by the maist kenspeckle Scots politician o his lifetime (gie or tak Broon), and whan his - aften meritit - criticisms o the SNP wad get plenty attention frae a unionist media oot o convenience.
ReplyDeleteThey've naebody noo wi his profile or his talent, sae I canna see thaim improvin on the last time oot. There's a body abuin says MacAskill can reach fowk on an emotional level. Remains tae be seen gin there's eneuch fowk open tae that get him intae Pairliament, but neither his nor Salmond's emotional connection bore the gree last time oot, and I dinna see whit they've got noo that'll chynge that.
Jesus, your browser likely has a spell checker. Please use it.
DeleteAnon at 2:42 PM
DeleteYour antisocial media device has a self-destruct function. Please use it.
Dunderheid 2:42 PM I tried to say "Oh you are awful", but my spellchecker changed it to "awa bile yer heid, or ah'll punch yer ticket twice"
DeleteI’m not sure how it really helps Alba setting woefully unrealistic expectations of future success.
ReplyDeleteThey should perhaps be better placed starting to consider an exit strategy. Is a failure to win seats on 2026 a marker that it is time to wind things up?