I'm probably not alone in being thoroughly confused by the reporting of Survation polls these days, but today took the problem to a new extreme. I went to the Survation website to find out more about the poll for True North that is being widely reported, and sure enough the top headline was about a poll for True North...but it turned out it had been conducted in June. I started to wonder if the poll had been withheld for two months for some reason, but I think the mystery has been solved by John Curtice's site, which lists a brand new Survation poll for True North conducted between the 15th and 18th of this month. That's good news, because it means support for independence has actually increased since the last comparable poll.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation / True North, 15th - 18th August 2023)
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
A one-point swing is of course statistically insignificant, but for what it's worth the direction of travel is in line with the recent YouGov poll which showed a much more significant three-point jump for Yes. George Foulkes seemed to reckon on Twitter earlier that the poll suggests "support for independence is fading fast", which may mean he's looking at the wrong poll, or possibly that he was indulging in liquid refreshment a tad too early in the day.
However, there's the by now familiar divergence in the poll between independence numbers and party political voting intention numbers, which are not especially favourable for the SNP - although at least there's no sign of things worsening much further for the time being.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 37% (-)
Labour 35% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-3)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): SNP 24 (-24), Labour 24 (+23), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:
SNP 39% (+1)
Labour 34% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 30% (-)
Labour 30% (+1)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
Greens 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 49 (-15), Labour 42 (+20), Conservatives 17 (-14), Liberal Democrats 11 (+7), Greens 10 (+2)
Net personal ratings:
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -3
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -22
Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -26
Those are horrible personal numbers for Yousaf, and contradict the suggestion in the YouGov poll that his unpopularity might be easing off slightly. To be twenty or so points behind Sarwar, and essentially level with Ross, is a desperate position to find himself in just five months after being installed as First Minister.
I remain of the view that the SNP have got to be brutally honest with themselves that the polling evidence suggests they are heading for defeat in next year's Westminster election and also that Humza Yousaf's unpopularity is a significant part of the problem. They could move on from a lot of their travails fairly quickly, certainly in time for the general election, if they simply face up to the leadership issue. But will they?
In the absence of the data tables (if they're out there I haven't found them yet) the only other point that can be made about the poll at this stage relates to the numbers on support or opposition to the SNP's coalition with the Greens. There's something in there for everyone - a plurality of the overall electorate oppose the coalition, while an overall majority of SNP voters support it, as do a plurality (but not a majority) of Yes voters from 2014. You can spin that pretty much any way you want to, although I would make the point that even if only a small minority of SNP voters are deserting them specifically because of the relationship with the Greens, that could be more than enough to do heavy damage in terms of seat losses.
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This morning I would have said there is zero chance of the current SNP hierarchy even contemplating replacing Yousaf, but this afternoon they announced Murray Foote as CE so honestly, I have no idea what they will do next.
ReplyDeleteAlistair Darling for treasurer maybe?
Allister Jack for policy wonk.
DeleteIt's life, Jim, but not as we know it.
The data tables seem to be there now: https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.survation.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F08%2F23150839%2FTrue-North-230823xlsx-.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
ReplyDeleteMurray Foote as Chief Exec is quite an eye opener. Given his age and service as a journalist I doubt he needs the cash, so I'm really wondering what is in it for him. After that I'm wondering what is in it for the SNP, as I doubt that an ex-journalist is the right person to run an organisation at an operational level (chief exec is a grandiose title for what is really a general manager, the leader is really the figurehead). As a fund raiser and persuader he might have some sway within Scotland as a whole and he's probably got a wee black book of scandalous stories to whip out. He should be good at putting together a proper rebuttal unit, but that needs researcher's and resources to operate. He doesn't need to be chief exec to do that either.
ReplyDeleteSome questions for SNP members:
Is it right that the man who wrote the vow is now your chief exec?
How loyal to the SNP do you think he is?
How wedded to independence do you think he is?
How long has he been a party member?
Are you comfortable with him being on the NEC?
Back on topic, on those polling figures I'm thinking that approximately one third on Labour's voters are now pro-indy. That feels like it is up a bit. How does that compare with a year or so ago?
Poll: Should Alex stand in Hamilton?
ReplyDeleteVote here
https://m.facebook.com/questions.php?question_id=680370296926681
I don't think Alex Salmond should stand for election at a by-election. For one thing there's a bit of an aversion to candidates parachuted into a constituency - I'd never vote for one, even Kate Forbes or Alex MacNeil.
ReplyDeleteBurt for another he's far more use as a "go to" person for the media, who hope he'll slag off the SNP or its leader. Meanwhile he can slip in the odd pro-Indy fact or opinion, and keep the whole thing in the public consciousness.
Angus even.
DeleteTomorrow is the deadline Alba set for Humza to respond in terms of agreeing a joint candidate for Rutherglen and Hamilton West. It will be interesting to see who Alba put up.
DeleteFor what it's worth I still don't know if Salmond or another Alba candidate should stand. With the Greens now also standing the SNP would have less excuse to blame Alba for splitting the vote but I think the SNP should be seen to fail on its own as much as possible.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see pro-independence supporters abstaining, both to punish the SNP hierarchy but also, through a very low turnout, to show contempt to the whole Westminster process.
More of a horror for Yousef is that SNP Membership continues to collapse. I think it would be a miracle if they held the Byelection seat. If they did then there is something very rotten in the Nation of Scotland - MI5/6 Ballot Rigging to prop up thier annointed Agent Yousef.
ReplyDeleteApparently 200 people searching for Nessie this weekend.
ReplyDeleteProbably about the same number who somehow think the Union will survive more than three years.
Yup.
Delete“more than three years”
DeleteTwo, surely?