Doubts deepen over Humza Yousaf's future as leader as new Redfield & Wilton poll shows SNP slipping to second place on the Holyrood regional list for the first time in many years - and Yousaf's personal rating has slumped by ten points

My jaw dropped to the floor a few days ago when I saw an anonymous source close to the Yousaf leadership claiming in the Financial Times that the team had been heartened by the opinion poll results published since their man became leader just over a month ago.  It's true that independence support has generally held up pretty encouragingly, but for the SNP itself there has been a succession of poor results under Humza, some of them showing a loss of the pro-independence majority at Holyrood, and at least one of them showing a loss of the SNP majority in Scottish seats at Westminster.  I can only assume that the source was clinging to the fact that every poll result so far had shown the SNP just about holding onto a lead of some description - but with the publication of today's Redfield & Wilton poll, even that is no longer true.

Redfield & Wilton poll (30th April - 2nd May 2023):

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 35% (-1)

Labour 32% (+1)

Conservatives 18% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)

Greens 3% (+1)

Reform UK 2% (-)

Seats projection (current boundaries, with changes from 2019 election): SNP 25 (-23), Labour 22 (+21), Conservatives 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

That's the worst Westminster seats projection we've seen for the SNP since the mini-implosion of 2017.  The pro-independence majority would be lost by some distance - the unionist parties would have 34 seats in combination, easily outcounting the SNP's 25.  The SNP would just barely remain the largest single party among the Scottish contingent at Westminster - but let's be honest with ourselves.  On these numbers the SNP are probably heading for defeat at the hands of Labour, unless they replace Humza Yousaf with a more popular leader.  Their lead is too fragile to have much chance of withstanding the 'away fixture' of a UK general election.

It's worth identifying some of the Yousaf-supporting MPs who are now projected to lose their own seats as a direct result of getting behind such an unpopular leadership candidate.  They include: Alison Thewliss, Anne McLaughlin, Deidre Brock, Angela Crawley, Owen Thompson, Chris Stephens, Martin Docherty-Hughes, Tommy Sheppard, and Anum Qaisar.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 36% (-2)

Labour 32% (+4)

Conservatives 18% (-)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)

Greens 2% (-1)

Reform UK 2% (-)

Alba 1% (n/a)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

Labour 27% (+3)

SNP 25% (-5)

Conservatives 19% (-)

Greens 13% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-3)

Reform UK 2% (-)

Alba 2% (n/a)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 39 (-25),  Labour 36 (+14), Conservatives 24 (-7), Greens 18 (+10), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8)

The SNP can't expect to suffer the horrific loss of 25 seats and still have a pro-indy majority at the end of that process, and even with a very high number of Green list seats, this poll inevitably points to a unionist-majority parliament.  Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems would have 72 seats between them, while the SNP and Greens in combination would have only 57.  The SNP would remain the largest single party, so it's possible they might be able to cling on as a much-weakened minority government, but even that would be far from certain.

As ever, the clearest evidence of the drag effect Humza Yousaf is having on the SNP's support can be found in the net approval ratings of party leaders.  Yousaf's rating has slumped by ten points, leaving him even further behind Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer than before.  (Remember that polls during the leadership election found that Kate Forbes fared much, much better against Sarwar and Starmer, and she often had superior ratings to them.) Even more scarily, Yousaf is only more popular than Rishi Sunak and Douglas Ross by a very small margin.

Net approval ratings of leaders:

Anas Sarwar (Labour): +3

Keir Starmer (Labour): +2

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -17

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -21

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -22

(There's also a leadership question with a different format that has Yousaf slightly ahead of Sarwar, but even on that one, Yousaf's lead has slumped since the last Redfield & Wilton poll, and now stands at a statistically insignificant two points.)

Tellingly, Yousaf is much more unpopular than his own party - the SNP collectively have a more respectable net rating of -4, even after the string of recent damaging revelations.

Net approval ratings of parties:

Labour: +12

SNP: -4

Liberal Democrats: -9

Greens: -12

Reform UK: -30

Alba: -36

Conservatives: -38

So the constant refrain from the SNP's Trendies that "Alba are the most hated party in Scotland" turns out not to be true - it's the Tories who hold that accolade.  That said, minus 36 is obviously a very poor showing for Alba, and can probably be explained almost entirely by their association in the public consciousness with Alex Salmond, whose reputation has been trashed by the media since his trial, in spite of the fact that he was acquitted on all charges.  Bear in mind, though, that the Tories are on course to win plenty of seats with an approval rating of -38, so Alba's rating of -36 certainly doesn't preclude the possibility of a few list seats in 2026.  Only around 6% of the vote would be required to achieve that breakthrough.

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FIFTEEN YEARS OF SCOT GOES POP: I could have wished to mark the occasion with a better poll, but today is the fifteenth anniversary of the start of Scot Goes Pop.  It all began on 3rd May 2008 with this post about Plaid Cymru's good showing in the Welsh local elections, and Boris Johnson defeating Ken Livingstone to become Mayor of London.  Thank you for all your amazing support over the last decade-and-a-half.

A couple of days ago, I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2023, and so far it's only around 9% of the way towards its target figure.  If you'd like to donate, please click HERE, and many thanks to everyone who has already contributed.