Redfield & Wilton poll (30th April - 2nd May 2023):
Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:
SNP 35% (-1)
Labour 32% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
Greens 3% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Seats projection (current boundaries, with changes from 2019 election): SNP 25 (-23), Labour 22 (+21), Conservatives 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
That's the worst Westminster seats projection we've seen for the SNP since the mini-implosion of 2017. The pro-independence majority would be lost by some distance - the unionist parties would have 34 seats in combination, easily outcounting the SNP's 25. The SNP would just barely remain the largest single party among the Scottish contingent at Westminster - but let's be honest with ourselves. On these numbers the SNP are probably heading for defeat at the hands of Labour, unless they replace Humza Yousaf with a more popular leader. Their lead is too fragile to have much chance of withstanding the 'away fixture' of a UK general election.
It's worth identifying some of the Yousaf-supporting MPs who are now projected to lose their own seats as a direct result of getting behind such an unpopular leadership candidate. They include: Alison Thewliss, Anne McLaughlin, Deidre Brock, Angela Crawley, Owen Thompson, Chris Stephens, Martin Docherty-Hughes, Tommy Sheppard, and Anum Qaisar.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 36% (-2)
Labour 32% (+4)
Conservatives 18% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Greens 2% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Alba 1% (n/a)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
Labour 27% (+3)
SNP 25% (-5)
Conservatives 19% (-)
Greens 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-3)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Alba 2% (n/a)
Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 39 (-25), Labour 36 (+14), Conservatives 24 (-7), Greens 18 (+10), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8)
The SNP can't expect to suffer the horrific loss of 25 seats and still have a pro-indy majority at the end of that process, and even with a very high number of Green list seats, this poll inevitably points to a unionist-majority parliament. Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems would have 72 seats between them, while the SNP and Greens in combination would have only 57. The SNP would remain the largest single party, so it's possible they might be able to cling on as a much-weakened minority government, but even that would be far from certain.
As ever, the clearest evidence of the drag effect Humza Yousaf is having on the SNP's support can be found in the net approval ratings of party leaders. Yousaf's rating has slumped by ten points, leaving him even further behind Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer than before. (Remember that polls during the leadership election found that Kate Forbes fared much, much better against Sarwar and Starmer, and she often had superior ratings to them.) Even more scarily, Yousaf is only more popular than Rishi Sunak and Douglas Ross by a very small margin.
Net approval ratings of leaders:
Anas Sarwar (Labour): +3
Keir Starmer (Labour): +2
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -17
Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -21
Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -22
(There's also a leadership question with a different format that has Yousaf slightly ahead of Sarwar, but even on that one, Yousaf's lead has slumped since the last Redfield & Wilton poll, and now stands at a statistically insignificant two points.)
Tellingly, Yousaf is much more unpopular than his own party - the SNP collectively have a more respectable net rating of -4, even after the string of recent damaging revelations.
Net approval ratings of parties:
Labour: +12
SNP: -4
Liberal Democrats: -9
Greens: -12
Reform UK: -30
Alba: -36
Conservatives: -38
So the constant refrain from the SNP's Trendies that "Alba are the most hated party in Scotland" turns out not to be true - it's the Tories who hold that accolade. That said, minus 36 is obviously a very poor showing for Alba, and can probably be explained almost entirely by their association in the public consciousness with Alex Salmond, whose reputation has been trashed by the media since his trial, in spite of the fact that he was acquitted on all charges. Bear in mind, though, that the Tories are on course to win plenty of seats with an approval rating of -38, so Alba's rating of -36 certainly doesn't preclude the possibility of a few list seats in 2026. Only around 6% of the vote would be required to achieve that breakthrough.
* * *
FIFTEEN YEARS OF SCOT GOES POP: I could have wished to mark the occasion with a better poll, but today is the fifteenth anniversary of the start of Scot Goes Pop. It all began on 3rd May 2008 with this post about Plaid Cymru's good showing in the Welsh local elections, and Boris Johnson defeating Ken Livingstone to become Mayor of London. Thank you for all your amazing support over the last decade-and-a-half.
A couple of days ago, I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2023, and so far it's only around 9% of the way towards its target figure. If you'd like to donate, please click HERE, and many thanks to everyone who has already contributed.
Fascinating stuff but it could swing back the other way in the next year or so. The most disconcerting thing for many will be the seemingly inexorable rise of the Greens.
ReplyDeleteAny polling on the Indy question or was it just party election polling?
"but it could swing back the other way in the next year or so"
DeleteYes, it could. But only if the SNP change their leader.
I reckon a period with the SNP out of power could actually help the independence cause. Once the electorate see the true nature and competence of a Westminster Tory-light Labour administration coupled with a Holyrood Unionist coalition it will quickly become apparent that the best option is independence.
DeleteWhen you consider that we couldn’t consistently get over 50% support for Indy during a period that saw Brexit, the most incompetent and corrupt Westminster governments arguably ever, a wee does of the alternative reality may be just what is needed…
That's simply not true. We did get well above 50% in dozens of polls, including every single one conducted between mid-2020 and early 2021.
DeleteOr if Labour hit some kind of banana skin. They’ve had a good run the last few years but all parties have something or other happen at some point. It’ll only take a 5% or so swing to re-establish an Indy majority.
DeleteI don't disapprove of optimism, but the obvious point you're overlooking is that there could just as easily be a further 5% swing towards Labour. There's no iron law stating that this is the worst it can possibly get for the SNP under Humza (and I very much doubt that it is).
DeleteThe 10 poll rolling average for Indy support from all polls has never exceeded 50% and whilst I would love that not to be true, you can’t deny it surely?
DeleteOf course I can bloody deny it because it's complete baloney! There were over twenty consecutive polls between mid-2020 and early 2021 that showed Yes over 50%.
DeleteAs you would love what you said not to be true, it's time to have a party, Adam, because it's not true!
I know Wikipedia isn’t always the best source but the wiki poll site tracking from 2014 would suggest otherwise - is that incorrect and if so, can it be corrected? I realise that it is showing yes/no and undecided.
DeletePresumably Greens and Labour/LD can form a coalition quite coherently with an environmental focus to policy.
ReplyDeleteHmmm. The Green membership are much more solidly pro-indy these days than they were a decade ago. Would they really accept participation in a unionist government?
DeleteI think they've acquired a taste for power which could lead to them 'adjusting' their vision.
DeleteNo, they wouldn't.
DeleteI'm a Green member and I can tell you for sure we definitely wouldn't!
DeletePolling work done on the Monarchy and released by YouGov today (field work late April).
ReplyDeleteMonarchy v’s elected head of State (excluding don’t knows)
In UK, Monarchy wins by a 41% margin of victory.
In Scotland, Monarchy wins by a 7% margin of victory.
Applying the theory proposed by Prof. of Geography Danny Dorling (Cambridge) the Monarchist margin of victory amongst autochthonous Scots would be 1.25%.
No margin of victory at all really, and that’s after subjecting us to saturation Monarchist propaganda.
If the masses were ever to learn what Keeper of the Royal Galleries, Anthony Blunt was up to in bombed out Germany in the summer of 1945, the Royals would be consigned to history.
autochthonous?
DeleteAutochthonous means indigenous. More specifically, when the group concerned are not marginalised but in the majority. In common parlance, "native Scots".
DeleteShould we set store on it?
DeleteJust more proof the independence movement remains in dire need of a charismatic leader who puts independence first and foremost.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon and her like have pissed all our dreams up against a wall,its heartbreaking.We now face the resurgance of Labour who had decades to right the wrongs in Scottish society and did sweet f**k all.
DeleteDire numbers, but hardly surprising. One can only hope it serves as a deafening wake-up call to the SNP powerbrokers. If they care about the movement at all they should resign en masse and let some new people, unsullied by the old regime, take charge.
ReplyDeleteThe review of party transparency and governance needs to be completed asap, certainly by this summer at the very latest, if there's to be any hope of convincing the electorate that the party has moved on.
Congratulations on this landmark, James, you’ve become the voice of sanity among independence bloggers.
ReplyDeleteThese fgures are a fucking disaster. The momentum is now with Labour.
ReplyDeleteA complete shower of clowns who have dissolved the political capital and credibility they had from 2015 for a few headlines.
Yet again Stephen Flynn blew away Labour at PM questions today. He is the clear choice to replace Humza should this be essential. He does not have Forbes religious baggage-though he may have other baggage that I do not know about😳
ReplyDeleteReligous baggage. Seriously....if it is not Forbes then is it isn't anbody.
DeleteFor Ian: Stephen Flynn is regularly starring at PM questions. I don't personally care about Forbes religious views (I voted for her in the leadership contest) but she is an easy target-though not as easy as Yousaf :-) The fact Flynn is at WM is a minor factor, it did not stop Salmond becoming leader. What I want is independence, and I will support whoever I think is likeliest to get us there.
DeleteSic a parcel o' rogues in the SNP - indy is off the cards til the SNP sorts its sht out - Humza has inherited a characterless, rudderless husk of an independence party. It'll take 5 years to sort this shte out and another 5 years to restore solid credibility... unless a leader of Salmond's abilities appears but that kind of leader that took the SNP from 'eccentric, side-issue party' to Scotland's (for the moment and not for long) premier political force is a rarity.
ReplyDeleteIt's rather a shame and shameful that Mz S and her lieutenants have left us adrift on a raft with the water coming in.
So, likely 10 years before we are in a position to demand indyref2 but who knows... a week is a long time in politics.
This is waht happens when you champion policies that are unattractive to teh public and the one policy you have that they want independence you don't actually believe in it. Big mistake by Sturgmeister giving the Greens kudos. She invited them to eat the vote from the SNP, the woman was a disaster to the movement. I find it hard to think of voting for the shit they are offering us such as no jury rape trials - mad stuff. It is kind of hell mend them.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping for a silver lining around this very dark cloud of a poll - namely that my MP, the horrible Sturgeon gang member Kirsten Oswald would be on the list of those who would lose their seats.
ReplyDeleteSNP members were warned and warned for years that this is where Sturgeon and her gang were taking the SNP. Did they listen - no. Are they listening now - no. Loads still worship Sturgeon. Idiots.
What's more embarrassing: the coronation, or Alex Salmond's sudden 180 conversion to militant republicanism?
ReplyDeleteMilitant - what has he raised his standard somewhere and is creating an army.
DeleteHe says he'd order the police to prevent the "Stone" being taken to the coronation. Quite a conversion for someone who, when he was actually in charge, argued against a referendum on the monarchy (even one in which the SNP would be neutral) and overturned a democratic vote by conference to that effect.
DeletePerfectly fair criticism, and change of tack on his part.
DeleteWith QE2 out of the way, and elder generations personal loyalty to her, he senses the political moment has come for pressing onward with open republicanism. Every good politician knows to stop and feel which way the wind blows. Humza is on his knees before Charlie tomorrow, so why not give republican dissent a shot?
I doubt very much if the at-risk MPs mentioned are bothered about losing their seats. They will see it as just part of the pensioning process of being part of a home rule party which has no desire to fight for independence. They will go down meekly with Yousaf and continue to embrace the british establishment from whichever cushy new job they're offered from their unionist chums.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with that, actually. Of course they'd find new jobs, but most of them would far rather stay as MPs. The reality of the danger they face hasn't sunk in yet, or is only just starting to.
DeleteWhat is the most likely process to get rid of useless ?. I take it the membership are powerless so that leaves the elected representatives. Can they threaten to bring a motion of no confidence at the Autumn conference ?.
ReplyDeleteIn theory he could be challenged at conference, but in practice there'd probably need to be pressure on him to go from MPs and MSPs.
DeleteAka "the men in grey kilts." The SNP's equivalent to the Tories' 1922 committee: disgruntled backbenchers who fear for their seats enough to have finally found a pair.
DeleteThe worse the polling gets, the better in that regard. Go Humza, Go!