Although it seemed fairly obvious from Humza Yousaf's dismal public approval ratings during the leadership election that the SNP were likely to lose support with him at the helm, I did wonder if that consequence might be delayed for a month or two (or three) due to the honeymoon effect that most new leaders enjoy when they first take over. After all, in spite of the self-inflicted wound caused by (effectively) sacking Kate Forbes and all but one of her supporters, Humza has enjoyed some lovely coverage over his first week, as you'd expect given the symbolism of him being Scotland's first ethnic minority, Asian and Muslim leader. (I'm using the word 'leader' because there have only been six First Ministers so far, and in pre-devolution times the role of national leader was effectively filled, albeit on a less democratic basis, by the Secretary of State for Scotland.)
So it was a disappointment that the first two polls of the Yousaf era, from Savanta and Panelbase, both showed the SNP vote already down on Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions, with Labour getting perilously close to drawing level, with swathes of SNP Westminster MPs projected to lose their seats, and with the precious pro-indy majority at Holyrood now projected to be lost. Interestingly, though, I noticed this morning that underneath the bonnet, there does seem to be evidence of a mini-honeymoon for Humza. Here are the new approval ratings from Savanta -
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +10
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -1
Kate Forbes (SNP): -2
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -12
Although those numbers look pretty awful for any newly-installed First Minister, they do actually represent an improvement for Yousaf, which seems to be driven almost wholly by current SNP supporters - exactly as you'd expect in the period of afterglow and novelty. The problem is that you'd then expect a reversion to, at best, the previous approval ratings once the afterglow wears off. So eleven points behind the Labour leader, and ten points behind his narrowly defeated rival for the SNP leadership, may be as good as it ever gets for Yousaf. If and when his ratings start slipping again, there's an obvious danger that the current narrow SNP lead in the polls will be replaced by some sort of Labour lead.
The reality is that you can't replace a leader whose net rating is eleven points better than Anas Sarwar with a leader whose net rating is eleven points worse than Anas Sarwar and not expect to pay a heavy price in voting intention numbers. Admittedly there was no alternative leader available who was quite as popular as Nicola Sturgeon, but as you can see from the above numbers, Kate Forbes is right in the middle of the two extremes and would have been able to compete on roughly equal terms with Sarwar.
I don't expect a Liz Truss scenario, with Yousaf forced out within a month or two. But if, within six months, the SNP vote has dropped by just a few more percentage points and three-quarters of SNP MPs are staring down the barrel of losing their seats next year, I think the difficult question may start to be asked of whether the drastic step of replacing Yousaf at an early stage might be better than the alternative. The trajectory points to a relatively early leadership crisis, and at the very least there may be tremendous pressure on Yousaf to reverse his stubborn factional course and to bring back Kate Forbes, possibly as Deputy First Minister or as Finance Secretary (or both).
PS. Does anyone know the independence numbers from the new Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times? I get the impression they're pretty decent, but not being a payer of the Murdoch Levy I can't find them.
UPDATE: 'Real Indy Loun' on Twitter has answered the above question - the numbers are Yes 48% (-), No 52% (-). That's now three polls in a row that suggest the trend on independence support has become decoupled from the trend on SNP support, with the Yes vote holding up strongly as the SNP vote falls.
A couple of more weeks of this and the trend will be apparent.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking that there's going to be a lot of UK level attention of what is going on in Scotland. The end of the SNP would be gleefully embraced by UK politics.
Baw's on the slates, and the SNP is going to have to start planning for the UK General election now as it is clear that Labour has.
Several years ago I pointed out on WGD that the stats used by indy supporters about how many English folk lived in Scotland were out of date it happens when a census is only done once every ten years but there are other methods they just take time and investigation .So many English unionists in Scotland declare themselves as British .It was accepted in 2014 that the Edinburgh university paper saying half a million English people voting no turned a majority for YES into a minority, since 2014 the housing markets in England have become even more expensive than Scotland making it very very attractive for the English to move to Scotland spending just a part of the money they get for their house in England on a much bigger house in Scotland allowing many of them to use the spare money from the sale of their English house to retire even earlier.No other country in the world has ever allowed people from the country they want to leave , have a vote on whether or not they should leave.How stupid is is it for a country with 5 million to let people from their neighbour of 55 million vote on their independence it’s obvious to idiots that the neighbouring country of 55 million can increase the number of people who move to the country with 5 million at will , especially if they control their economy and most everything else.
DeleteWell , I have turned up at meetings and helped at elections here in the NE over the past 45 years . The last two elections have been marred by rather aggressive behaviour on the part of recent arrivals into the area . I lost count of the times our candidate was told he was a Scot/Scotch B or to f off in loud English accents . The same happened to me . I await the 2021 census with interest .
ReplyDeleteMind , the UK doesn't have an economy only a housing market. It's much cheaper here. I find it an irritation that folk who have , doon sooth , done similar work to myself have so much spending power when they " relocate". We are too poor after all!
I have torn up my membership , no more knocking on doors . We are going bacwards .We will see no advancement in my my lifetime .
Maybe I'll get a flag pole and Union Flag just like my new neighbour!
Countless times I've mentioned this but I live in Sutherland and I am now the only Scot in my area. Everyone - everyone else is English. They are nice people, I have dinner with some of them occasionally (there's nothing else up here if you want a drink too) and they all vote NO. Watched it happen in the last eight years but with Covid it seemed to shoot up. I used to work down in Corby, Sutherland feels like Corby now but with less Scots. It's a shame, not their fault, just wanting a better life, but they don't want the Tartan shire to leave England.
DeleteHow Sturgeon still get's a positive rating is beyond me.
DeleteAye the census something else Robertson and Sturgeon made a mess of. I mean how hard is it to carry out a census and people expected Robertson and Sturgeon to deliver independence. Robertson, of course, still in his old job - rewarded for stepping aside from the leadership? Certainly not for delivering anything.
DeleteWe are almost at the tipping point in Wales. Demographic change favours the Union and will be encouraged.
DeleteJames saw your tweet and went and read the Wings btl post. It was very unfair of the poster to lump you in with the others like PayPal Paul and the Small guy. Very unfair indeed. There is a vast difference between the other bloggers slavish nicophancy and your attempts to minimise the impact on independence support from the Sturgeon gangs trashing of the SNP.
ReplyDeleteMore and more people now realising that the SNP may claim to be for independence but their actions say otherwise.
The Rutherglen & Hamilton West By Election could be significant on a few levels especially if Margaret Ferrier runs as an Independent. If that happens the SNP candidate could feasibly finish 3rd. Would that be enough to topple Humza ? Probably not
ReplyDeleteI don't think that really is feasible
DeleteOh it certainly is. The constituency has been a close fight between the SNP and Labour for years. We are already looking at possible SNP voter apathy as seen in 2017 and if Margaret stands then what's left of that vote could be split. They may not finish 3rd but would be a well beaten 2nd
DeleteThe constituency has been a close fight between the SNP and Labour for years.
DeleteYes. That's why one of those parties (probably Labour) will be first, and the other will be second.
It was an outlier poll
ReplyDeleteIt was a blip
It was a Tweet storm in a teacup
It was those vile cybernats
It was Islamophobic voters
It was transphobia rampant on the streets of Scotland
It was all Jo Cherry’s fault
It was all that cursed Salmond
It was because Scots aren’t “genetically”progressive
It was because they don’t deserve us
…
It became untenable for the First Minister to continue in the current political environment.
From the ST: 'Support for the Union was 49 per cent with 5 per cent unsure. When don’t knows are excluded this would see 48 per cent of people vote Yes in a referendum and 52 per cent vote No.'
ReplyDeleteMartin Geissler on the Sunday Show stating from the papers that 16-18 rebel MSPs not happy with Yousaf. Also said that Forbes is now saying she told Yousaf she wanted her old job as Finance sec which is obviously contrary to other reports from people like Shona Robison who said Forbes wanted a better work/life balance.
ReplyDeleteLies, deceit and broken promises - the trademark of Sturgeon's gang.
The approval rating for Sturgeon must be the Britnats and numpties who read WGD. Remember it used to be a lot lot higher.
Many years ago I said on SGP that Skier would be the last man standing supporting Sturgeon as the numpties eventually realised Sturgeon is a fraud. The reason being Skier is a Sturgeon propagandist and not a misguided gullible numpty. Not long now.
The SNP is the fail here - it was coming - one of the Lesbian-in-public-denial dictator's legacies : one of the reasons she left. The SNP will lose power if HY can't get the SNP to smell the coffee and develop some purpose. Better to get kicked out now and return a powerhouse than limp on with broken wings. All this lies at the feet of Mz S. Maybe HY will change the SNP but maybe not.
ReplyDeleteShe resigned because of 4 reasons : 1) She new that her government had deteriorated over such a long time that it was an inevitability the SNP would be falling in popularity; 2) out of the limelight means the finger of whatever naughty stuff she and Murrel did whilst in office; 3) she's exhausted - she creagted a dictatorship with microanagement and failed to micro-manage; 4) the indy movement is finallly wise to her underwhelming lack of interest in pursuing indy.
DeleteNobody gives a fk what she does in her personal life, though had she come out of the closet then that would have meant lesbians ruling the opposition and the governement and I possible worries about the presbyterian voters of Scotland might have distracted from policy though I doubt it - the Scots have always been more interested in policy than personality.
I've loathed Sturgeon from the moment she was elected SNP dictator: never considered indy her raison d'être; was forced into adding an indyref2 clause to the 2015 EU SNP manifesto (number 15 priority I think) and diffused the SNP, making it effectively an administrative appendage of the Brit state. On a personal level she seems nice but nice is not why you go to a rock concert. I wish her well and wonder when she'll come out of the closet. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-scotland-32380783
ReplyDeleteSo why get married : appearances, spousal privilege, panic, love ?
ReplyDeleteThese are the important questions that occupy independence supporters
DeleteA couple of crackers from the resident WGD Sturgeon propagandist Skier.
ReplyDelete1. Skier interprets the recent polls as only a drop of two SNP seats in the next Holyrood election.
2. Skier whines:- " Why people are so annoyed at me for not really picking side is beyond me. " perhaps they are annoyed because you did pick a side - Humza Yousaf - but tried to pretend you were somehow neutral. Or perhaps it's just because you are a lying deceitful prick.
"Skier interprets the recent polls as only a drop of two SNP seats in the next Holyrood election."
DeleteHe's said some strange things in his time, but that's borderline nuts. What's his reasoning?
"borderline"?
DeleteSome sort of averaging of polls based on Skier science.
ReplyDeleteNot seen the Ski slope graph for a while though. It will probably make an appearance showing that the year 2050 is the magic year when independence will be the settled will of 100% of the people but only if we stick with Humza.
These polls are good for independence, if some good political leader emerged It would be Easy to turn a 48% into a majority
ReplyDeleteGreat piece, James. Let's hope the SNP rejoin us as part of the pro-indy camp one day, but it may take them a few years.
ReplyDelete