It's extremely heartening to see how resilient support for independence has proved as the SNP has indulged in a prolonged period of self-harm (which will never really be over until they eventually rectify the mistake of electing Humza Yousaf as leader). Here we have an example of independence support actually increasing as the SNP's own support continues to slip backwards - although in this case the independence results may simply represent a reversion to the mean, because the previous Redfíeld & Wilton poll looked a bit like an outlier with the No vote unusually high.
Redfield & Wilton poll (31st March-1st April 2023)
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 46% (+1)
No 54% (-1)
Just like in the Panelbase poll at the weekend, the Yes side was extremely unlucky to be rounded down rather than up - it was very nearly a two-point increase to 47%. Rounded to one decimal place, the result is Yes 46.4%, No 53.6%. The real improvement for Yes can be seen more clearly in the results with Don't Knows left in: Yes 44% (+2), No 50% (-1).
There's also a corresponding improvement - and a much more dramatic one - in public attitudes towards holding an independence referendum in the relatively near future. 43% of respondents would support a referendum being held within one to five years - an increase of six points from the previous poll. 41% take the opposite view, a decline of three points, meaning there is a slim majority in favour of a referendum once Don't Knows are stripped out. Even when asked whether a referendum should be held within the very tight timescale of one year, respondents are almost evenly divided with 41% in favour, an increase of seven points, and 44% opposed, a decrease of five points. The appetite for both independence and voting on independence seems pretty considerable these days, and it's great to see.
For some bizarre reason Redfield & Wilton keep asking people whether they "agree with Alister Jack" that a referendum should only be held if polls show 60% of people want one. A mere 50% of respondents agree with him, which I'm sure Mr Jack will confirm means that his proposal has been soundly rejected. I mean, obviously to be consistent about it, he'd need 60% support in opinion polls to have a "real" majority, and he's way, way, WAY short of that. 50%, Alister? Pathetic. Another decisive win for the pro-indy camp.
Now for the less good news - the first Redfield & Wilton poll since Humza Yousaf became First Minister shows the SNP lead for Westminster dropping to just five percentage points, which is lower even than in the recent Savanta and Panelbase polls. This is bound to increase fears that the SNP simply cannot afford to go into next year's Westminster election with Yousaf as leader if they want to avoid a landmark national defeat.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 36% (-3)
Labour 31% (+2)
Conservatives 19% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+4)
Greens 2% (-)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Seats projection (current boundaries, with changes from 2019 election): SNP 28 (-20), Labour 19 (+18), Conservatives 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
That will send a chill down the backs of SNP MPs, because the projection points to an end of the pro-independence majority at Westminster that has been sustained since May 2015.
As I said about the Panelbase poll, what makes these poor results particularly worrying is that they seem to have happened in the middle of a honeymoon period (of sorts) for Yousaf. In the personal ratings there are clear signs of a honeymoon, with Yousaf's net approval rating standing at -7. That's obviously extremely poor for any incoming First Minister, and places him way behind both Keir Starmer (+8) and Anas Sarwar (+10), but nevertheless it's better than most polls showed during the leadership campaign and also before that. The suspicion must be that it's just a temporary bounce caused by the positive publicity any new leader can expect in their first few days, and that he'll soon slip back down to where he previously was. If that happens, will the SNP's popularity slip with him, pushing them down into second place for the first time in many, many years? It's certainly a real danger.
On the plus side, though, the Holyrood numbers are not too dreadful for the SNP, or at least not in the context of the times.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 38% (-2)
Labour 28% (-1)
Conservatives 18% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+3)
Greens 3% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 30% (+1)
Labour 24% (-2)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+2)
Greens 11% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 52 (-12), Labour 28 (+6), Conservatives 23 (-8), Greens 13 (+5), Liberal Democrats 13 (+8)
Incredibly, the pro-independence majority would just about be salvaged on those numbers - the SNP and Greens in combination would have 65 seats, and unionist parties combined would only have 64.
Reform UK at 2% ? Some of the inmates must have escaped !
ReplyDeleteReform in Scots parliament being on 2 makes me think there's something a bit odd here.
ReplyDeleteNot that casting aspersions but it is strange, i don't even think anyone knows who their leader is here.
Wikipedia says Michelle Ballantyne ceased to be "leader" in February 2022 and doesn't list a successor, so maybe they no longer bother with having a Scottish "leader".
DeleteSomething like 'branch spokesperson' ?
DeleteMore propaganda lies from the Sturgeon propagandist Skier.
ReplyDelete" Yousaf is preferred to both Ross and Sarwar by decent margins."
and this
" He might not be everyone's dream ticket , but Yousaf is considerably more popular than Ross / Sarwar, which is what we all want!
What I want is for people like the WGD liar Skier to stop the blatant lying. But he won't because he admitted he is a liar and said lying was fine if it helped your objective. His objective is to keep Sturgeon's gang in power.
Britnats have been lying for a very very long time and Skier is no exception.
The big dug is happy to have a blatant liar posting on his blog supporting Sturgeon's gang because he is the same.
I wouldn't call that a lie, it's a half-truth. Yousaf is well behind Sarwar on net approval ratings, but he's ahead of Sarwar on an alternative question format. However, the alternative format is a mixed blessing for Yousaf, because his lead over Douglas Ross is weirdly low. It's safe to assume Nicola Sturgeon or Kate Forbes would have had a far bigger lead over Ross at this stage.
DeleteJames is Yousaf
Delete1. Preferred to Sarwar by a DECENT margin in any polls.
2. CONSIDERABLY more popular than Sarwar in any polls.
A half truth is still dishonest and I am happy to stick with my statement that Skier is a liar in this instance and more generally.
Taking the last three polls from Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase and Savanta averages around:
ReplyDeleteSNP: 38%
Labour: 32%
Conservative: 19%
Liberal Democrat: 7%
Putting these numbers into Electoral Calculus and taking into account the proposed new boundaries, this would result in SNP: 30, LAB: 18, CON: 6, LIB: 3. So the SNP would retain a majority of Scottish MPs.
However that is with UNS. We don't know if history will repeat itself but the SNP-LAB swing was larger in SNP seats where Labour came second in 2017. Say this was another 4% (and some tactical voting for the Lib Dems in Caithness) it's not inconceivable that the SNP could fall to 20 seats even without any further slippage in the national vote share.
The much bigger problem is that this is all pre-campaign. The true lesson of 2017 is that the wheels can really come off for the SNP in the last few weeks before polling day, because the media will relentlessly portray the contest as Sunak v Starmer. Now that the SNP have stupidly tossed away their USP of independence, it's impossible to see how they counteract that problem. Nobody is going to be impressed by "standing up for Scotland" or "send a message to Westminster" or anything as bland or meaningless as that.
DeleteI absolutely agree. The situation is serious because sliding down to around 20 seats is possible as things stand right now never mind if there is any further swing in the vote share before the election comes.
DeleteI remember the day of the 2017 election well. I was at college at the time and many in the class who supported independence and voted SNP in 2016 were voting Labour because "a vote for the SNP is pointless, only Labour can form the government". It's not difficult to see a vote for the SNP feeling even more pointless now without the promoise of a de facto referendum.
Seems to me that the biggest problem is that the SNP establishment is too inept to even know it's best career interests.
ReplyDeleteYousaf's very limited public appeal was well known before he was elected but the 'suits' still did as the 'machine' demanded and supported him.
It's a bit like Maginot Line thinking - concentrate your efforts on making yourself strong in a completely irrelevant and ineffective way. We'll have to vote for the numpties in FPTP elections but the chance of them being up to finding a decent way forward to independence, if this is their best thinking, is vanishingly small.
Build the strength and political independence of the YES movement and look for alternative, political ways forward.
Reform UK are shown as a discrete class but not Alba? Not even in the Holyrood voting intentions survey? And, especially, not on the Holyrood/Regional List options?
ReplyDelete"Other" is at 2% on the Holyrood/List so their support will be in there.
Given the decline in the SNP it is possible that, had Alba been shown as a category in their own right, disaffected SNP/Independence supporters may have been encouraged to transfer to them ....
😂
Delete