There's a very big health warning to be put on this, because two other polls conducted at around the same time have failed to pick up the same trend, but nevertheless Deltapoll are indeed reporting that Labour's GB-wide lead has been slashed from 23 points to just 10 - which seems to be the smallest Labour advantage in any poll from any firm since mid-September 2022, when Liz Truss was still Prime Minister (just before she blew it completely).
GB-wide voting intentions for next general election (17th-20th March 2023):
Labour 45% (-5)
Conservatives 35% (+8)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-2)
It looks like that would still produce a decent enough Labour overall majority, although it certainly wouldn't be a three-figure majority, and not too much more of a swing back to the Tories would bring a hung parliament back into play.
Although there isn't really any supporting evidence of a Tory surge from other polls, it was notable that in the Opinium poll at the weekend, Rishi Sunak had slightly overtaken Keir Starmer to become the public's preference for Prime Minister. We know that leadership ratings are sometimes more predictive of election results than standard voting intentions, especially a long way out from polling day.
This is beginning to feel a little bit less like the run-up to the 1997 election. In other words, although Labour are justifiably strong favourites to win next year's general election, it's possible to see a path back for the Tories in a way that wasn't really the case in the 1990s. And in a perverse sense that might throw a lifeline to the SNP, who would stand a better chance of maintaining their majority status among Scottish MPs at Westminster if the momentum towards a Labour government starts stalling.
* * *
Over the last few days I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead. However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...
The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
If you wish, you can add a note saying "for the fundraiser", although even if you don't do that, it'll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.
If you don't have a Paypal account, last year's fundraiser is still very much open for donations HERE.
I've been looking at a possible hung parliament since Boris became the covid killer. The English are basically tories - Starmer is tory-lite with no platform. He might win but the English are tories.
ReplyDeleteI agree, some muppets who claim to support Scottish independence need to remember that.
DeleteWe need to escape Tory dominance whither red or blue English are majority Tory. Independence is the only way forward for Scotland.
DeleteWell thanks for informing everybody.
DeleteWe didnt realise........ (groan).
I remember 'Real Scots read the Record'. I also remember a car sticker saying 'Real Scots rip up the Record'
ReplyDeleteYes the Deltapoll is an outlier but the Wiki best fit curve had the Tories climbing steeply this morning, before the last two polls were released. Reason? The Tories know their core audience. Psychotic hatred towards the refugees in small boats sadly throws red meat to their xenophobic, racist supporters.
ReplyDeleteStill time for a refreshed SNP to be clearly distinctive with a no 'ifs", no
ReplyDelete'buts', drive for independence with a, moderate but clear, social democratic programme.
Not tory, not Labour, a party with a separate, hopeful perspective.
Latest YouGov poll has SNP exactly where we were.
DeleteShut up quisling and find another rock to scurry under.
I'm slightly puzzled by all the sudden chatter on Twitter today about a YouGov poll that's a week old. You're right in the sense that it's a decent poll for the SNP, but why has it taken a week for people to notice it?
DeleteWestminster voting intention:
ReplyDeleteLAB: 47% (-1)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 6% (+1)
REF: 5% (-1)
via
@RedfieldWilton
, 19 Mar
That's one of the other two I was referring to in the blogpost.
DeleteWell it's obvious that only a hung Parliament can make a referendum happen, if the only way for Starmer to get in government Is a deal with the SNP he Will do it. Not a coalition, Just a confidence deal based on a section 30 approval for a referendum
ReplyDeleteAnd another labour vow
DeleteSir Keir is a man of principle, he wouldn't break any promises........
DeleteWell it's obvious that only a hung Parliament can make a referendum happen, if the only way for Starmer to get in government Is a deal with the SNP he Will do it. Not a coalition, Just a confidence deal based on a section 30 approval for a referendum
ReplyDeleteThey’ll probably win because most in England support the stop the boats kind of language.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon " mortified " because she wore the same outfit on Loose Women as when she resigned. She should be mortified for all the lies and deceit over 8 years as FM. What ever outfit she wears she will always be a ' Toom Tabard '. She even claimed she had no idea what the membership numbers were/are.
ReplyDeleteHer boy Yousaf continuing her standards by lying about what Regan has said about EFTA and working with the Greens.
Some numpties are saying everything is ok in SNP world, no problems at all just made up by British media. Others say all the problems are all Alba and Salmond's fault. The SNP with and without problems at the same time. Schrodinger's SNP.
ReplyDeleteJust like ex SNP Chief Exec Peter Murrell who was at home when Salmond visited Sturgeon and was also not at home in two diffferent testimonies to the Parliamentary Inquiry. Schrodinger's Murrell set the standard along with his wife in the SNP.
Amazing such an honest person like Forbes could work with these liars for so long and a boss like Derek McKay. It does show she does not bring her religion to work.
"Some numpties are saying everything is ok in SNP world, no problems at all just made up by British media. Others say all the problems are all Alba and Salmond's fault. The SNP with and without problems at the same time. Schrodinger's SNP."
DeleteIf it's one lot of people saying the first thing and "others" saying the second, what does Schrodinger have to do with anything? That's just called "disagreement". You're always going on about WGD posters having the same opinion. Now they don't all have the same opinion, and you're unhappy about that too. Schrodinger's IfS!
Anonymous you were making a reasonably sensible post but sunk your argument by saying Schrodinger's ifs. So it is clearly Schrodinger's anonymous.
DeleteI note that you have nothing to say about the rest of the post.
Anonymous - you refer to WGD - I refer to the SNP in my post. If you are going to critique my posts please try and read them accurately.
Delete" Recent slightly lower SNP numbers". that's how WGD liar Skier describes the SNP numbersgate. Remember this is the guy who said in the past it was all rubbish that membership numbers were declining by large amounts and in fact was punting a 10k increase in members at the time.
ReplyDeleteThe big dug may not like people on his site who criticise Sturgeon but he is happy to have liars post away continually.
From a high of approx 125k a few years ago to approx 72k SNP members. Yet Sturgeon didn't seem to know about this and nobody seems to have investigated why people were leaving.