Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Is there ANY way the SNP could win the 2026 Holyrood election with a leader as unpopular as Humza Yousaf?

That's a headline deliberately "in the style of the Daily Mail", but there's a perfectly serious point behind it, and it's one I've made a number of times before.  I thought it might be worth revisiting on the day that we're told Humza Yousaf thinks - with a certain lack of self-awareness, it has to be said - that his opponents in the leadership election might cost the SNP some of its supporters. In reality, that concern relates mainly to himself.

We know that the approval ratings of leaders are often highly predictive of general election and Scottish Parliament election results, and every poll that has measured approval ratings over the course of this campaign has had Kate Forbes well ahead of Humza Yousaf.  But the most telling results have been from Ipsos, who also asked the same approval question of non-SNP politicians, and most importantly of the Labour leader Anas Sarwar, to allow a direct comparison to be made.  Here is what the most recent Ipsos poll showed...

Ipsos net approval ratings (6th-7th March 2023):

Kate Forbes (SNP): +8
Anas Sarwar (Labour): +5
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -7

So the SNP really are at a crossroads.  They can opt to give themselves a slight inbuilt advantage over Labour at the 2026 Holyrood election by choosing in Kate Forbes a leader who is a touch more popular than the de facto main opposition leader - and even having that option after so many years in government is pretty extraordinary, let's face it.  Or they can self-harm by spurning that opportunity and installing a leader who is significantly less popular than his Labour opposite number.

Would it be possible for the SNP to overcome the hindrance of an unpopular leader like Yousaf to hold onto power?  That would be a very tall order.  For as long as anyone can remember, UK general elections have generally been won by the party with the most popular leader.  The two exceptions that are generally cited are 1970, which was won by the Conservatives in spite of Harold Wilson being more popular than Edward Heath, and 1979, which was also won by the Tories in spite of James Callaghan being more popular than Margaret Thatcher.  But UK elections were a lot less presidential in the 1970s than they are now.

In a Scottish context, some may point out that Ruth Davidson often had slightly superior approval ratings to Nicola Sturgeon, and yet Sturgeon always got the better of Davidson in elections.  But that's not really a meaningful comparison because the Tories can't compete on a level playing field with the SNP in Scotland.  Their brand is too loathed outside their own core vote.  Scottish Labour have no such disadvantage, and in any case it's hard to dispute that Davidson achieved something very close to the best results that were realistically possible for her.

The only glimmer of hope for a Yousaf-led SNP might be the question of "which came first - the chicken or the egg?"  We might assume that it's leaders that make parties popular or unpopular, but just occasionally it can be the other way around.  Just by chance, I happened to be in the Republic of Ireland (Donegal, to be exact) in the week of the 2007 general election, which was widely expected to be won by Fine Gael, led by Enda Kenny.  But the snag was that Kenny was significantly less popular on a personal level than Fianna Fáil's incumbent Prime Minister Bertie Ahern.  I watched Kenny deliver his final party election broadcast, in which his strategists had forced him to parrot some North American-imported artificial nonsense about a "Contract with Ireland", and he came across as stilted and uncomfortable.  In the end, Fianna Fáil surprisingly retained power, and to a large extent that was attributed to the charm of Ahern, who was thought to be the sort of guy people would like to spend time with in a pub.

But four years later, it couldn't have been more different.  Kenny had somehow survived as Fine Gael leader, and in spite of the fact that his personality hadn't changed one iota, he weirdly had much higher approval ratings than before, and indeed was more popular than his opponent.  Voters had grown thoroughly sick of Fianna Fáil, and simply by embodying something different, Kenny became much more liked.  However, I think it would be wildly over-optimistic and naive to imagine Humza Yousaf could benefit from a similar effect - if you're unpopular just before you assume the highest office in the land, the likelihood is that the only way is down.

*  *  *

Over the last few days I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead.  However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...

The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

If you wish, you can add a note saying "for the fundraiser", although even if you don't do that, it'll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.

If you don't have a Paypal account, last year's fundraiser is still very much open for donations HERE.

31 comments:

  1. Bear in mind the Greens are now honour bound to withdraw from the government if Kate or Ash wins. That could make things quite interesting, especially around budget time. How friendly are they going to be in confidence and supply? What’s their calculation for a new election?

    We may well get the snap Holyrood election you’ve been calling for.

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    1. A snap election remains almost inconceivable unless the SNP themselves decide to bring it about.

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    2. But if Forbes wins and the Greens refuse to support her as First Minister, then surely a snap election becomes highly likely… doesn’t it?

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    3. No! How many times have we been over this? If it's a contested election, Forbes wouldn't even need a majority of MSPs to be elected First Minister. Alex Salmond was elected in 2007 with the votes of just 49 MSPs out of 129.

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    4. I know you keep saying that, but I maintain the opposite view. If KF wins there's no one in the existing ministerial team who would continue as a minister, there's also plenty who would spit the dummy over her victory for bitterness/social/economic issues, and so it seems credible that there will be those who'd rather she got bounced out after losing a Scottish GE.

      She'll be in power but friendless. The NewSNP HY lot will undermine her the way Jeremy Corbyn was undermined.

      To see what the effects might be, what would Holyrood 2021 look like if the SNP had 10% fewer votes in both constituency and regional tallies? Absolute numbers, not percentages. Perhaps half the lost 10% on the regional vote would go to the Greens. I don't see people being ready to vote for Humza and Labour yet at Holyrood.

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    5. The comparison with Corbyn, and the suggestion that "no-one" would serve her as a minister, are both light-years wide of the mark. You're falling for the propaganda of a zealot minority within the SNP group. The vast majority of current ministers would continue under her if asked (although how many would be asked is obviously another matter).

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    6. I don’t buy the “no SNP ministers will work with her” line, either. They have been, closely, ever since she became the all important finance minister! They might not like her but that’s politics.

      It’s the Greens I’m thinking about.

      Doesn’t the Scotgov fall when it can’t pass its budget through Holyrood? Wouldn’t the Greens have the ability to force an election at that time? Is this something they’re in the mood to talk up, until the point it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy?

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    7. Sorry, I hadn’t seen any previous explanation on this. Thanks for educating me.

      So even if the Greens (and every other party) were to vote against Forbes, the vote would be tied at 64-64… meaning that the Presiding Officer would cast the deciding vote… and the Presiding Officer was elected as a Green MSP. Would that be a free vote, or is there a convention that the Presiding Officer sides with the sitting government?

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    8. A government with 64 seats out of 128 with the Presiding Officer excluded (technically not even a minority government) has all sorts of options for getting its budget passed. The idea that the Greens are the only show in town is completely wrong. You would only need one individual opposition MSP to abstain.

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  2. I was accuse of pessimism the other day, so here's some optimism. Sarwar's ratings are surely being inflated by people not being that familiar with him and using him as a repository for general dissatisfaction with the SNP. His every mannerism drips with such insincerity that when he gets pushed to the fore during a Holyrood election campaign I'd be amazed if there wasn't a bit of an "Iain Gray effect". Remember that this guy lost a leadership election to Richard Leonard.

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    1. Yes, but let's be serious - Richard Leonard is a titan.

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  3. Why aren't there any new polls on SNP membership votes?

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    1. I'm 70% sure we'll see at least one more. We heard from several commenters towards the end of last week that there was a YouGov poll of SNP members in the field. Assuming that's not a private poll, and assuming the fieldwork takes roughly as long as the Savanta members' poll, we might see the results at the weekend. Could be a very big moment.

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  4. not really well they might end up with a minority government, but it also depends if Ash keeps up the profile, and or someone starts advocating to the yes movement voting for Alba so at least a new group of second votes comes from that?! maybe who knows, 19 or 20 Alba MSPs and maybe a big swing to the greens to if Kate get's in, but Kate would have to start advocating for the ISP or Alba to keep the movement afloat I think, basically Scottish politics has been delayed until another Scottish election again. I think the Tories will make a comeback though, and Alex should think about moving aside to be a deputy leader of Alba, being known as Alex's Alba party hasn't worked, and most of the policy is just the ISP's he should step aside and they should merge with the ISP, and maybe as there leader to become the ISP leader, She isn't tainted, and given the profile and opportunity she would be a great leader for the left of Yes, which given the poverty in Scotland we really need. This is a really good time for Scottish politics because what has been holding it back, I would say really from before the 2014 ref, has finally been swept from the movements and publics mind and seen for what it was, a gradualist shame which Alex and NS were part and parcel of. I really like Alex, but he is still poison to many especially woman, which sad, I don't get it, but that the way society works up here. He has gone back to his roots so to speak, but he was invited there, and is only there because of what happened with the hatchet job. Anyway onwards and up words, Saor Alba.

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  5. NO IFS NO BUTS

    The continuity candidate continuing with the no ifs no buts lies of his hero Sturgeon. All last week Yousaf categorically promises that he will challenge the GRR veto of the UK gov in the courts. Now that most of the GRR zealots have voted for him he now says he will NOT challenge the UK veto if he is given legal advice he will lose.

    Just like his mentor Sturgeon Yousaf is a lying toerag.

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    1. I'd apply Hanlon's razor here. (Maybe we could call it Humza's razor)

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  6. I'll be in Dublin when the "result" will be announced. If anybody asks I'll make sure they know just how much of an English party the SNP has become and just how much the SNP has betrayed the people of Scotland.

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  7. There is little doubt that Humza Yousaf will say anything to get elected, if others have noticed that then it's likely the members have as well

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  8. Neale Hanvey sets out today at FMQ's the great energy robbery of Scotland. ALL other parties show no support for his message. The SNP MPs sit in silence. The Britnat media in Scotland will likely ignore his words.
    The UK chancellor last week imposed a massive increased tax on the whisky industry in Scotland. Silence again from the Britnats. Scotland is being ripped off like a colony each and every day we remain in the UK but the kid- on party of independence are exercised by the importance of allowing men to self ID as women as living standards plummet.

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    1. You just need to see how chuffed Bardell SNP MP and her pal sitting next to her are ( bowing heads and all smiles) to be getting a meeting with the PM to realise these people are settled in to Westminster life - subservience writ large.

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    2. If Hanvey knew what he was talking about instead of repeating propaganda designed for punters he'd be nearly as smart as you

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    3. Anonymous at 10.54pm - thanks for caring.

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  9. The clear strategy of the previous SNP leadership cabal has been to delay independence for as long as possible. Otherwise how would we be able to explain their actions over the past 8+ years ? In that context the leadership contest represents a substantial coup for them. If HY wins then the party will almost certainly lose the 2026 election. If KF wins then it is highly likely that internal schisms & intrigue will prevent an SNP win in 2026. I don't think that AR will win, but even if she is involved in a KF-led government then there will still be divisions which will almost certainly prevent an "SNP only" win, but might be enough to force a ditching of the SNP 1 & 2 policy, and permit a wedge of ALBA/ISP msps to be elected on the list. Why is the SNP cabal so fiercely against Ash Regan ? Simple - she is a threat to their key policy.

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    1. Oh, that's a new question, "I'll just take some time to think about that" 😬

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  10. Boris Johnston in front of his Parliamentary Committee reminds me of Sturgeon in front of her Parliamentary Committee. Long winded answers and I don't recalls. Both professional liars. Both guilty.
    Johnson is now an expert on the rules but claims he relied on officials to tell him if the rules were broken. Pity he wasn't an expert on his own rules when they were in operation.

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  11. Looks like this is becoming a redundant election - the SNP seems determined to commit political suicide.

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  12. Kate Forbes at 3/1 with the bookies.I think I will have a nibble at that.
    That's just from trying to read the vibes of both candidates.Thats assuming that they are getting live updates of the votes being cast .Kate looks or seems more confident than Humza

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  13. WGD numpty Irish/French/Scottish/British Skier is called out again as a liar by yesindyref2. Hey Admiral I've been telling you that Skier is a liar for many years. I also told you for many years that Sturgeon is a liar and would not deliver independence. You really are a bit slow on the uptake but not quite as slow as so many other dafties on WGD.

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  14. Scottish Skiter is a moonhowler.

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  15. The info from a Scottish census should have formed part of the leadership debate but once again we find it was messed up by Sturgeon and Robertson. Truly sick of people, including Sturgeon, boasting about winning many elections. So what. People like me voted for independence and she had multiple mandates for a referendum but did SFA.

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  16. Salmond says:- Humza Yousaf is not as bad as people are saying." It may be damning Yousaf with faint praise but from what I have seen I disagree with Salmond Yousaf is useless other than spinning lies and deceit.

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