Survation have tonight followed in the footsteps of Savanta by publishing a Scottish voting intention poll with fieldwork conducted after Nicola Sturgeon resigned - although there don't appear to be any independence numbers. That's such a strange omission that I wonder if the independence question was asked, but the results have been reserved for a newspaper client. However, the good news is that Survation, just like Savanta, have found that the SNP's support has not been harmed by Ms Sturgeon's departure. In fact there's a slight increase in the SNP vote, albeit not a statistically significant one.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation, 15th-17th February 2023):
SNP 43% (+1)
Labour 30% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 43% (-)
Labour 29% (-)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 35% (+2)
Labour 27% (+2)
Conservatives 18% (+1)
Greens 8% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
For what it's worth, my guess is that Labour will not make much progress on closing the gap - which is still extremely sizeable - over the next few weeks. The SNP will be lavished with media attention as the various candidates jockey for position, and then whoever wins the leadership will probably enjoy a honeymoon spell in the polls.
So far, the unanimous verdict of all three polling firms that have asked is that Kate Forbes is the public's preferred choice to succeed Nicola Sturgeon, with Angus Robertson consistently the second favourite. Here are the net popularity ratings found by Survation...
Kate Forbes: +5
Angus Robertson: -3
John Swinney: -12
Humza Yousaf: -18
Even leaving aside the task of winning independence, I think I would fear a bit for the SNP's chances in future elections if Kate Forbes doesn't win. It's not great for an incoming leader to start with a negative rating, particularly given that Anas Sarwar's personal ratings are (inexplicably) not too bad at the moment.
It's hard to know how seriously to take the Telegraph on Scottish politics, but they're making a bold claim that sounds plausible enough - that Kate Forbes is willing to jettison the Greens from government, and that the Greens probably couldn't live with her policy programme anyway. That would change the dynamic within the independence movement pretty radically, and of course would also mean the government might occasionally struggle to win key votes in the Scottish Parliament. I suspect Alba might feel a bit happier about no longer being the only pro-indy party of significant size to be 'outside the tent', as it were.
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I don't know that I'd go so far as to worry about the SNP's electoral chances if Kate Forbes doesn't win. When the "Don't Knows/Neither Good nor Bads/Never Heard Ofs" involved are so high (all involved besides Yousaf are 50+ in that regard), the people who've never paid attention to them are going to be the deciding factor of their tenure over the coming weeks.
ReplyDeleteThe only one on this basis that I'd be truly worried about would be Humza Yousaf. When you're so deep into negative territory without also having the ubiquity of Sturgeon, you're probably a lost cause before you've even started!
On a related note, Salmond would likely have been wiser to keep his mouth firmly shut on his preference for future leader. As a politician with an enormous history in the SNP, it's understandable he has a preference. But he's unlikely to do Forbes any favours with current SNP membership by singling her out as his favourite.
If he genuinely wants her to become leader and FM, he should have kept mum and quietly celebrated her victory when it comes. The Salmond of yesteryear would have been sharp enough to realise that he might risk cursing her with the kiss of death by so explicitly vocalising it.
Given the endorsements of Mhairi Hunter and Anne McLaughlin, it looks like Yousaf might be Sturgeon’s preferred candidate. That makes sense in that he was basically being groomed for leadership since Salmond first took him under his wing, but given his negative ratings, poor performance as a minister and well known weak worth ethic, I’d have thought the establishment wing would coalesce around a safe pair of hands like Robertson, even if Sturgeon doesn’t like him personally.
ReplyDeleteThe Daily Mail and Robin McAlpine rarely sing from the same hymn sheet, but they both seem convinced that Sturgeon not only wants Angus Robertson to win, but is trying to rig the election in his favour.
DeleteMhairi Hunter rarely seems to draw breath without a nod from Nicky, so I doubt she’d give an open endorsement without atleast a nod of approval.
DeleteThe Mail and McAlpine have got quite a few things in common.
DeleteWould love to see kate Forbes stand for first minister.
DeleteMy current thoughts are Forbes to run the Scotgov and Regan to progress Scottish independence.
ReplyDelete"The SNP will be lavished with media attention" is true enough but I have yet to find an article in any MSM publication which doesn't spend half of the piece talking about SLAB.
ReplyDelete