Should Scotland be an independent country? (Lord Ashcroft, 26th January - 3rd February 2023)
Yes 44% (-5)
No 56% (+5)
I want to say something from the heart to members of my own party, the Alba Party, in relation to the above numbers. When I went on Twitter this morning, every second tweet I saw was from Alba members, often very, very senior Alba members, seemingly gloating about the Ashcroft poll and claiming it showed Nicola Sturgeon had destroyed the cause of independence or set it back decades. It should be a statement of the obvious that this is not generally the way pro-independence parties behave - for very obvious reasons we normally talk independence up, not down. In this case, independence is not just being talked down, it's being absolutely pulverised with words, in a way that is manna from heaven for the anti-indy media. And it is categorically not the case that such extreme negativity is the only conclusion that can possibly be warranted from the poll numbers we're seeing at present. There have been four independence polls in this calendar year to date - three have shown No leads and one has shown a Yes lead. So it's not even entirely clear at this point that No is necessarily in the lead. Two of the No leads have been within an entirely typical range for the polling firm in question, and this Ashcroft poll is literally the first for an extremely long time that has shown an abnormally high No lead. Rule number one with polling analysis is that if only one poll is showing something unusual, you treat it with caution and scepticism until it's corroborated by more polls, because it could easily turn out to be an extreme outlier or a rogue poll. We have actually seen a number of polls like this since 2014 and - at least so far - any despair caused by them has proved to be ill-founded.
Lord Ashcroft's polls have a prior history for being outliers. He conducts them very infrequently and they sometimes show large swings in surprising directions. I gather that he uses a variety of firms to conduct his fieldwork, and if he chops and changes between firms in each successive poll, that could partly explain the oddity of the trends he seems to pick up.
Maybe I'm getting a distorted perspective on Twitter due to the fact that I follow so many Alba people - it may be that people outside the party just aren't exposed to this barrage of extreme negativity and it thus doesn't have the destructive effect that I fear. But nevertheless as an Alba member I don't think it's irrational for me to care so much about what is going on. I know some Alba-bashers will say that this is simply what Alba has consistently done right from the start in spring 2021, but that is categorically not the case - this relentless talking down of independence support is something completely new. The party seems to have undergone a radical change of direction in recent months and become a Totally Destroy Nicola Sturgeon And The SNP At Any Price Party, which was certainly not the prospectus when I became a member two years ago.
I'm not really sure what the hell is going on, or what the underlying cause of this change is. The NEC elections last October probably did, on balance, move the Executive in a more hardline direction, but the leadership are more than strong enough to resist that having much of an effect on policy and strategy if they want to, so this must be a decision from the top. One thought that occurs to me is that Alba have actually been quite a successful party in one specific and limited way - they've proved quite effective at raising funds, as you can see from some of the advertising they're able to do, for example on the front page of The National. It may well be that the bulk of those funds come from hardline anti-Sturgeon sources, and that it's been calculated that giving donors what they want to hear is necessary to keep the party in a healthy financial state. But this is potentially leading us into a horrible purgatory where Alba successfully perpetuates itself in an increasingly unelectable state in which it will be incapable of helping the independence cause. I've been saying for a very long time that it is absolutely possible for Alba to win list seats in 2026, but ONLY if we tone down the near-homicidal rage against Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, and become once again a party with a positive message about independence. That's the only way we can convince SNP sympathisers that an Alba list vote is a natural complement to an SNP constituency vote. We're doing the complete opposite of that at the moment and as a result I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic about our electoral prospects. It's not too late to turn things around, but there may come a point where it is too late unless we step back and do some much-needed reflecting.
I know some people will earnestly argue that Alba's current militant message is actually a positive one, because it's about destroying the SNP and replacing it with Alba, which is the only party capable of delivering independence. Frankly, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Replacing the SNP with Alba may not be totally impossible, but from where we're starting it would be a 20 year project - certainly not remotely consistent with the original Alba message that appealed to me so much, ie. that we wanted independence in the "here and now", not in some far-distant hypothetical future. I'm also not sure it's consistent with Alba's official policy of wanting an October 2023 plebiscite election, because that's a campaign that would almost certainly be fought under SNP and Sturgeon leadership. If you think the Sturgeon team are such an unmitigated disaster area and that independence will only be possible once they're totally destroyed, why would you want them to lead a decisive independence campaign in just eight months' time? Unless I'm missing something, there's just no joined-up thinking here.
Slightly disturbed by the number of independence supporters regularly sharing SNP-bashing articles from the Express and other anti-indy newspapers. Not saying I'd never do that, but the bar would be very high.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 11, 2023
James Kelly: I am sorry as I have read and admired your blog for many years. You really need to bite the bullet here and abandon Alba. They are a negative for Scottish independence perhaps because Salmond cannot seem to help having, at least in part, created it as a personal revenge vehicle. Like the more rational people who voted Brexit but now recognise they were deceived and would vote for rejoin if they could, you cannot “Make Alba Work”. Sturgeon may not lead Scotland to independence, but Flynn or Forbes might. Alba are now a proven negative and never will. Leave them soon, please.
ReplyDeleteAgreed as well. Much of what you say is excellent- the people you are associating with are damaging the cause of Independence. You should rejoin the SNP. So should others . Better to work from within to effect change. The current behaviour from many Alba people plays directly to a Unionist narrative and is entirely counterproductive.
DeleteThey are the Wings Party now.
DeleteIt's clear to people that have been independence supporters for decades that the current SNP will NEVER lead us to independence. Look at the dog's dinner which is the de-fucto referendum.
DeleteA Westminster de-facto
A Westminster de-facto about having a referendum FFS!
A Holyrood de-facto
And who is going to lead Scotland to independence? Alba ? The tartan blogosphere? Have a word.
DeleteAgreed
ReplyDeleteThe Alba MPs and, of course, Alex Salmond, are the big positives for Alba.
DeleteNo democratic party can control the gloating of senior actual members and prolific Tweeters who claim to be members.
Alex and the 2 MPs will surely make comment soon to try to reign in senior ragers against Nicola.
Without the trio, the Alba Party is nothing. With the raging reigned in, the Party can continue to grow as a much needed Scottish alternative to the SNP after the de facto Referendum.
From my perspective, AS cannot put aside his personal agenda. He chose to go on UK right wing media and use them to aggressively badmouth SNP and Scotgov. It is worrying and disappointing that it has become hard to distinguish between Alba and unionists recently.
DeleteAfter the car crash interviews with NS and J Gilrush, someone had to say what we all were thinking - or are yo a wheesht-for-indy proponent?
DeleteI don't use Twitter but I completely agree that it really doesn't help if senior Alba people have been gloating about this poll. It just deepens and widens the divisions. We can't afford that as an Independence movement given our predicament.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand The National's comments below the line from SNP loyalists are sticking their head in the sand and dismissing Ashcroft's survey results variously as being:
1. Biased
2. Including leading questions on the Indy question (when it is not)
3. Commissioned by an ex-Tory chairman so are corrupt and bogus
So not in touch with reality either. GRR would seem to have damaged pro-Indy sentiment but there is no acknowledgment that the SNP have really shot them in the foot and, more importantly, Scotland's Cause. Instead the loyalists blame the 'anti-GRR media' and propaganda.
4 out of the last 5 polls published have shown a NO lead. This is ignored by them.
Yet when there were 7 polls in a row at the end of last year we were apparently on the way to Independence land according to the same individuals.
They pick and choose what suits their preconceptions.
Not helpful either.
You say GRR has damaged pro indy. Maybe, but was difficult to foresee as through 6 yrs of discussion, it has been supported by all political parties, most womens groups, human rights groups, LGBT+ groups, even largely in the 2 public consultations. The alarm and hype was not there for the 6 yrs, but has now been successfully hijacked by right wing. Sad that Alba have been significant in helping them with the misinformation and lies about the actual GRR bill, attacking NS rather than expressing constructive challenge to all parties who voted for it. Alba also had all the yrs before now to join the conversation, but have also chosen to publicly use it against the Scottish government and specifically NS, who is only 1 of the MSPs voting for it.
DeleteOh come off it. Your attempt to describe a pro-GRR consensus is blatant propaganda. I myself commissioned a poll in 2021 that showed overwhelming public opposition to self-ID and the ideology that underpinned it. Do you just edit out all the evidence that doesn't fit your preferred narrative?
DeleteNo. I read the consultation responses and even responded myself. Have you read the statement from womens groups expressing support for the bill and stating they always did. I worked in (Scottish) human rights and we all supported it. Maybe some concerns from some which were addressed, but overall support. 6 years is a long time in discussion and a lot of chance for people to join the debate. On nearly all party manifestoes, 2 public consultations with 100s responses, 3 parliamentary debates. Why only now in the media? Also who responded to your poll, because as an Alba blogger, I would imagine it is mostly Alba who read you and would respond to your poll. Surely a public consultation is wider? A lot of the criticism and concerns are not covered by the GRR bill, but already in existence through GRA 2004 and EQ 2010, both UK wide acts. Access to spaces is through them and prison. Prison policy which was during ASs tenure as FM, so again a long time ago. Where has all the sudden alarm come from?
DeleteWhat's the line about "better to stay silent and be thought stupid than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"?
DeleteWhen I say I commissioned a poll, I mean it literally. I didn't ask people who read my blog whether they agreed with me or not - I paid thousands of pounds to commission a polling firm affiliated to the British Polling Council to conduct a scientifically valid poll that was representative of the whole adult population in Scotland. It showed overwhelming public opposition to gender self-ID and the underlying ideology. In 2021. So there has been no "sudden alarm" - the hostility has been there for years. But you didn't notice because you were stuck in your little social media bubble with your fingers stuck in your ears.
You can't really expect me to publish the petulant and extremely personalised rant you've just submitted as a reply, but suffice to say that it's deeply odd that someone who considers themselves well-informed on attitudes towards gender recognition reform over the last six years was apparently totally unaware - until just a few minutes ago - of the state of public opinion in 2021 as revealed by opinion polls. It wasn't just my own poll, there were several polls close together showing near-identical results. Somehow you read through the individual responses to consultations but completely managed to miss multiple opinion polls that were reported in the mainstream media, sometimes even on front pages.
DeletePublic opinion should have been the first thing you took account of, rather than treating it as uninteresting trivia that can be safely ignored. It's far more important than the microscopic, unrepresentative, self-selecting percentage of the population who submit responses to carefully managed and tightly controlled consultations.
Quite right, James, the outcome of the consultations was 100% predetermined before the first response was sent in.
DeleteI don't use social media so I have no idea of what is going on in that sphere. I know figures show a lot of people do use the likes of twitter but I think it is given too much importance. One of my own frustrations is the effect a twitter storm can have on political debate in the MSM and on actual political policy making. My dislike of Sturgeon is not due to twitter but just due to evidence. No move on independence and putting in policies that many of us do not agree with. I have been putting an X in the SNP box for decades as I believed they would take us to independence I have now had to put my X next to a party who implement policies I disagree with vehemently. I want a return to normal politics where I can vote for policies I do agree with, not a party banner. Politics is about shaping your society but we have had a gun held at our head so that I and many others keep voting for things we don't agree with and that they want to inflict on us: Named person act, Football act, GRA reform, to name a few. I've had to vote for these and others over the years and Sturgeon does nothing on independence. She can't even get devolution to work. Yet again the handover from DWP with regard to benefits has been delayed, how does that play in public perception? We cannot even organise that, how can we organise an independent country? We can of course, but not with this administration. I can see why people are angry, if this next election is not a de facto independence vote then what is the point in voting SNP? Why would I vote for another mandate? Perhaps if the SNP realised that people were going to call them to account at the ballot box they would do something to push independence forward. I need to know what I am voting for and so often Sturgeon and the rest of them speak with forked tongue. Sturgeon should step down, we all know that in politics after a while people get fed up with you, as a political driver she is spent. Let someone else take charge - even a strawberry.
ReplyDeleteHaving been an SNP member since the early 1980's I used to be fairly well acquainted with some of the "very senior members" of Alba that you refer to. To say that I just don't get the mentality behind their attitude to any negative poll on Scottish independence is putting it mildly.
ReplyDeleteIt's good to read a thoughtful post and comments on this issue, it's certainly been dispiriting to read some recent twitter posts. My fear is that all Alba need to do is chip away at the SNP and lower their mandate at the next election for the unionists to have achieved their aims without having had to do anything themselves. As you say building Alba into a credible party will take many years and the seemingly venemous campaign against anything related to Nicola Sturgeon will fracture the indy support still further. We really do need a united approach for independence regardless of who is leader of either party to secure the majority that is there for the winning, but may well destroy this possibility if things carry on. Wheesht for indy and fight it out afterwards?
ReplyDeletebrobb, that would be great if the SNP were actually pursuing independence. are they?
DeleteYes I believe they are, just not in the way those impatient for a result would maybe like. I think the often underplayed governance of the past 8 years has helped to win over some of that stubborn middle 10% - redistribution of wealth however modest it may seem is being noticed and appreciated. I'm one of those who don't see a quick route to independence and understand the painstaking steps to overcome UK intransigence. And, while I personally admire how Nicola Sturgeon has managed things so far, I really don't care who is at the top as long as we get there in the end
DeleteIsn't it amazing the influence a party, that only has one to two per cent rating, has over this independence poll?
ReplyDeleteOr maybe the reality is it has nothing to do with ALBA and the SNP are doing it. Now I wonder what the SNP could have done recently that could have caused this?
With all due respect, if you really think there's a genuine drop in support for independence, and if you really think it's caused by the GRR Bill, that's all the more reason to use the opportunity of the veto to draw a line under the issue, rather than pointlessly keeping it at feverpitch.
DeleteIt is difficult to feel positive about an October 2023 referendum. Should Sturgeon lead us into it we would surely lose, because independence is not where the SNP's head is currently at. The elected members are too cosy, there had been no groundwork, the media is as resolutely anti independence as it was in 2012-14, and the Scottish Government is the least competent it has been since devolution.
ReplyDeleteYou're believing all the manure printed by the likes of the Mail and the Herald.
DeleteAlmost all of the Alba members were all loyal former SNP supporters all their lives including myself. To see in a matter of 9yrs a single woman has turned a party with other 120,000 members to stealing money and being investigated by the fraud squad and its membership down 30,000 in a single week, Independence at an all-time high of 58% to now on 44% and has failed on ever single devolved matter, to Sturgeon statement judge me on education. The latest poll suggesting 4 in 10 want Sturgeon to resign and in The Rag people are saying its 6 in 10 who want her to stay on, well it doesn’t take a mathmagician to realise Sturgeon is doing more harm than good and the longer she stays the hard it will be to fight for Independence. I remember Sturgeon stating Independence isn’t about one person well it is and that person is destroying independence entirely and its of her own making and Scotland and her people will be the worse off because of this woman.
ReplyDeleteIn case its slipped you by, but Police Scotland has already came out & said there is no criminal fraud going on, same with the Unionist lie that 30,000 members have quit the SNP, they haven't.
DeleteAlba are now rapidly turning into a "Destroy the SNP/Greens" Party and nothing else. They are, so far, an almost complete and utter non-entity with Scottish voters and have about as much chance of replacing the SNP, as Annie Wells has of becoming FM.
ReplyDeleteIt is more than worrying to watch just who their supporters are now allying themselves with - from total Indy-Haters/Blockers like the Tories, to Extreme Right/White-Supremacist Fascists at certain rallies.
The influence of the, now seemingly Tory Supporting, Bath Balloon also cannot be underestimated. To say that he has completely lost the plot with his obssessive and frankly ridiculous attachment to ONE issue at the expense of virtually everything else, is the understatement of this new century.
There is no longer any doubt, that he and his cult-followers would actually CHEER if this Racist, Totally Corrupt, Brexshitty Tory WM Govt stripped Holyrood of ALL its powers and imposed Jack as Scotland's new "Ruler".
So far have that lot become detached from reality.
Polls have always fluctuated - as with the nineteen-in-a-row with Yes in the lead in 2020/21 and seven out of the last twelve also showing a Yes lead.
As for Scotgovt policies - EVERY Govt of any persuasion gets some policies less than perfect (I would need another post to cover all the atrocious mistakes made by the Tories) but you do NOT set out to destroy a Pro-Indy ScotGovt when it is an absolutele prerequisite to achieving your alleged main goal of Scottish Independence.
Alba supporters and the Party itself need to remember that, get over their childish desire for "revenge" on Sturgeon and start focussing on the positives which Scotgovt have so far delivered for its citizens ( of which there are many, from mitigating cruel WM policies, fairer taxation, best performing NHS, better child allowances, better travel allowances, baby boxes etc...) and trying to convince more undecideds to support Indy - something Alba supporters NEVER seem to even try.
White Supremacist Racists?
DeleteWee Ginger Dug garbage.
It wasn't ALBA who destroyed the SNP, wasted countless mandates and pursued insane unpopular ideological policies at a time they should have been winning over the undecided and demonstrating sound Govt.
This is all down to the "destroyer of womens rights", St. Nicola Sturgeon. A uniquely incompetent and thin skinned control freak, and her back bench and Westmister acolytes
Utter nonsense David and frankly I'm disgusted that a so called Yes supporter could come out with this. My belief in an Independent Scotland and my belief in protecting, and indeed enhancing, women's rights gets me branded a white supremacist by people like you. You are being just as divisive as those that you accuse.
DeleteMy comments, whether you like them or not, were factual. At a recent rally in Glasgow a certain well known Anti-Trans Activist was lauded and applauded by those present - and even the most cursory investigation of her shows that she not only describes herself as an "Anti-Feminist", but also supports and keeps company with blatant fascist white supremacists as well as "excusing" the racist and massively discriminatory rhetoric of Donald Trump.
DeleteIf you do not find the cosying-up of some of the GC Movement to people like thst, I suggest you take a closer look st your own values.
Totally agree David Frances. Well said in both comments!
DeleteSturgeon must make way for someone who actually wants independence and puts it ahead of everything else and is prepared to do anything to achieve it. I know pubs aren't the best places to garner opinions but I have been surprised recently by the number of people, male and female, who have blurted out unsolicted, to no-one and everyone, their vehement dislike and distrust of Sturgeon, usually vowing to never vote SNP again. Whether that is hurting the indepence vote I don't know but it can't be helping. I think we have to bite the bullet and try to get Sturgeon replaced with someone who puts independence before everything else.
ReplyDeleteI know it may give their respective supporters an aneurysm to hear it, but I increasingly believe that to take the poison out of the debate, Sturgeon AND Salmond have to be replaced. The former is increasingly unpopular, the latter is the least popular politician in Scotland by some distance - or was, the last time anyone bothered to poll him. Meanwhile, whatever "stardust" Sturgeon might have enjoyed once upon a time has truly evaporated, and her poll ratings are only more likely to slide even further as she enters her NINTH year in the role of First Minister.
DeleteI know that's going to sting some of the more rabid supporters of each candidate to hear it, but all politicians have expiry dates. Salmond's, frankly, was the moment in 2017 he lost Gordon to the Tories. That was the time to pack it in.
Sturgeon's time to pack it in was probably around the time of the Supreme Court decision. Let someone more gutsy handle the next stage of the relay race to independence. As it is, she's stale and struggling and much too long in the tooth.
And frankly, the sight of these two stale, expiring politicians and their clutch of fevered supporters slinging mud in one another's directions on and off for the past two years has been tiresome enough to indy supporters. It's got to have scunnered the average voter to see this internecine, factional squabbling.
If Sturgeon and Salmond are left in post much longer, their years of bad blood and their cadre of proxies spewing bile are going to turn the movement into Labour party post 79: an introspective, laughable electoral force.
I know we’re all keen for independence asap, but I fear the GRR debacle has set things back substantially. Since 2007 the whole idea was to show Scotland that we could govern well, implement popular policies and to build up a political self-confidence. Quite why Nicola Sturgeon decided to put GRR at the top of the agenda (or should that be agender?), and quite why enough of her colleagues went along with it, is a mystery to me.
ReplyDeleteMaybe she just really believes it’s the right thing to do, since in every other respect it has been very damaging for her. Fair enough, but it’s unfortunately a bit too far ahead of public opinion. A dose of pragmatism here would have been much wiser politically, especially with the various sensible safeguard amendments that were suggested. She could have improved trans rights a bit, while binding her opponents to the decision. By ignoring the amendments she’s placed the Tories on the side of the people and put herself against the people. Never a good idea for a someone looking to win the popular vote.
It certainly seems that she is surrounded by too many yes people, and not enough Yes people. Maybe the SNP are overdue a small forest fire, to make room for new growth. Perhaps we need the next generation to step up and lead us onwards.
I love your blog's James. You do good. But I've made up my mind that I won't give my 2nd vote to ALBA anymore. That's ended today. It's Both votes SNP or SNP/Greens for me here on in....
ReplyDeleteGod help us if Sturgeon is replaced by someone like Robertson.
ReplyDeleteCan't be all down to Alba. Didn't Stewart McDonald SNP MP state in an email, allegedly, that he is one of the few Sturgeon loyalists left in the Westminster SNP group?
ReplyDeleteWhat is the thing that can't all be down to Alba?
DeleteMight of been better if Alba members took the fight to the SNP and rejoined, as a project it got off to a late start, it should of started back in 2015. But anyway we are here now, maybe convincing enough key figures to re-democratize the party is the only realistic way forward, but also given public support for Angus MacNeil might be the way forward, he seem like the last man standing for what many thought the SNP stood for. anyway time to think positive. the polls have been going backward and foreword for a while now, but it's just as lightly in a week or to it goes back to yes with just as big a margin. remember how it the swing was to yes in 2014, "reason's to be cheerful part two".
ReplyDeleteI am deeply unhappy with the SNP just now. Not just its obsession with toxic gender politics, which has deeply divided the party and come at the expense of progressing independence, but also its current policy of promoting useless people to candidacy (and onto MSP and MP seats) simply because they're friends of the ruling clique or have a 'protected characteristic' that gets them a queue jumper and enables people of very limited ability to frog jump the party's true talent (the SNP parliament party is now full of dross, elected under this policy). And then there's the issue of an increasingly arrogant, out of touch leadership that dispensed with democracy a few years back. However, Alba is not the solution. It could have been, but it blew it. Alba could have become a genuine force for good if it didn't like the GC zoomers dominate it from the get go. These people are loud, gobby, militant and a complete turn off. They are the ying to the SNP's yang (the similarly loud, gobby, militant pro-trans modern feminist ruling clique). Most of us who support indy but are stuck in the middle on this gender politics debate (and we're the majority) and sick to the back terth of BOTH sides. You are all destroying independence, not Alba, not the SNP, both parties' zoomers are the problem. If Alba had set itself up as a credible alternative to the SNP, but without the obsession with gender politics and aggressive feminism, I have no doubt it would have succeeded and hoovered up votes. But it erred from day one. It set itself up as the same as the SNP (by and large) just the other end of the extreme. We're not going to win indy by arguing for it from one extreme or the other oh the gender politics spectrum. Alba has blown it, sadly, and the SNP has blown it too. The only chance we now have is for the SNP to get a jew leader, to leave the toxic tender politics behind, and regalvanise the party and the movement behind independence. A fresh start. And only the SNP can do that, because Alba marred its copy book before it had built any real support. I was very close to joining Alba last year, but they as it became dominated with the same old GC gobby voices it became just as unappealing as the SNP has become. We have lost indy for the rest of this decade because we allowed the gender politics discussion to be overrun by extremists on both sides. Both Alba and the SNP need to take ownership over that disaster.
ReplyDelete"We have lost indy for the rest of this decade..." Sorry, I disagree. As long as we get a new [who cares about their religion] leader who grabs the independence question by the scruff of the neck and shakes the life back into it we can easily recover any lost ground and push the issue forward. How about Flynn as leader and taking SNP MPs out of Westminster to set up an indy assembly in Scotland to work alongside Holyrood? Time to through caution to the wind.
ReplyDelete"...through caution..." ? Serves me right.
ReplyDeleteI had high hopes for the Alba party, when it was first formed, albeit I thought it would take years to make headway but too many members have personal axes to grind towards the SNP leadership especially Nicola Sturgeon. They are hellbent on the destruction, if not of the SNP party itself (maybe even that - who knows?), then certainly those at the top. I have a lot of respect for Alba's two MPs at Westminster - Kenny & Neale - but I doubt I will vote Alba in any forthcoming elections. They are poisonous and too thick to see the damage they are wreaking. Sorry, they are just assholes.
ReplyDeleteIndy is dead unless and until Sturgeon's rancid SNP is removed. SNP-Bad is therefore Indy-good. Sturgeon's nuSNP comprises troughers, careerists, WOKE-zealots and all round charlatans who, in the true spirit of 1980's Scottish Labour, would sell their grannies for glue so long as they can stay in their comfy seats at either Westminster or Holyrood.
ReplyDeleteOnce you accept the reality that the SNP has been lost to the corrupt, the compromised, the WOKE and those growing fat off devolution, you'll conclude that the SNP is now the biggest obstacle to Indy. You must then accept the reality that we must remove them in order to achieve our goal - which Sturgeon has deliberately put back by at least a decade.
Do you claim to support Independence?
DeleteBe honest with yourself you don't give a shit about Independence and all you care about is getting rid of Sturgeon and finishing off the SNP.
It's people like you who are the biggest obstacle to Independence and don't you know it.
The anonymous OP sounds like he reads the Daily Mail & the Express, what exactly do you mean by using the word WOKE?
Deleteyou might just be a knuckle dragger set in your ways & don't agree with a more modern way of thinking.
It's hard to think of anything much more modern than using the term "woke".
DeleteNope. Cutting off your nose to spite your face. They don't come any more corrupt than the Tories in Westminster - we read about it day in, day out. Scotland needs to escape that - pronto.
ReplyDeleteMore accurate to say "to spite Scotland"
ReplyDeleteI suppose it's both easy and too late to understand things in retrospect but here goes.
ReplyDeleteThe independence movement was on the road to serious trouble as soon as the SNP became the government at Holyrood and decided that the way forward was to prove it's 'competence' at governing.
Previously it had been a 'movement' - the party of the independence cause. As such it's members and supporters didn't necessarily have political views in common. Governing opened up all sorts of differences, and factions, and speeded the leadership to kill member democracy in favour of 'managerialism' and careerism.
Alba was the right idea but it allowed itself to be derailed by the powerful emotions of revenge and personal animosity.
Consequence - shit street !!
Some form of YES alliance is probably the way forward. Build the movement and make the 'politicians' come to us - NOT us running after, and trying to make sense of, their self serving.
Your summary is corect but the essential reasoning misses the explanation : Nicky, from the moment she became leader, rejected and killed stone dead any talk of independence. She quickly ruled in the position of dictator (Rome as in Julius Caesar) and produced a successful, soulless administration. Result, the SNP is adrift ideologically and is blind, dumb and deaf.
DeleteNonsense. It's competence that took the cause to a referendum. Can't believe competence is the thing people go after.. lol
DeleteI'm not particularly buying all the "everyone should rejoin the SNP and effect change from within" arguments. There's very little sign that that approach has gotten anywhere in recent times- mainly it just seems to result in Sturgeon doubling down with the control freakery over the party.
ReplyDeleteThe reason we are where we are now is because the SNP have repeatedly messed up (in terms of progressing independence, in terms of poor performance in government in recent years, in terms of failing to represent and respect its members appropriately), not because Alba appeared. The SNP thought they could take the support of the whole indy movement for granted for an indefinite period of time, and use that support to basically let them do whatever else they wanted within the devolutionary structure. It doesn't really matter if support for independence is falling or increasing if the supposed main party vehicle for independence isn't all that interested in trying to achieve it and actively seems to be working on ways to stall it.
I said the other day that we've moved from "delaying increasing the chances of success" to "delaying actively damaging the chances of success". If Sturgeon really wanted to rescue the situation she'd get a Holyrood 2023 de facto election set up pronto and actually spend the time till then actively talking about independence and why we want it.
It sill wouldn't be an ideal situation, but the SNP clearly squaneder all the ideal situations of the past few years, and now there's only bad timing or worse timing. Nothing about a GE in 2024 or a Holyrood election in 2026 is going to be any more favourable than the situation currently. The longer this goes on without proper direction, the worse it's going to get.
Well, you said all James. Alba is shooting itself in the foot attacking the party it aspires to get the regional Holyrood votes from. Alba comes across as a chip-on-the-shoulder grouping of the disgruntled (which of course they are). Alba should be campaigning for indy - Tricky will be gone soon - the 2nd 11 amateur vibe needs to end. The next HR election will likely see the SNP with fewer seats, Alba should be courting SNP votes, not rubbishing the SNP or their Dear leader.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the SNicolaP, she has become the news. Denying her being tired and tetchy; grimly defending GRR (when none of us gaf); ferry tales and so on. She's done and will be gone soon - not soon enough - I've loathed her since she took over but dared one utter anti-Nicky thought and the Sturgeonista exploded. Patience is a virtue but time she fkd off and got her sex-change or whatever. Her passion is GRR - there must be a reason for that.
ReplyDeleteThat hatred must really weigh you down. I doubt she’s going anywhere.
DeleteMore hatefest from the disgruntles NS & SNP haters.
DeleteDo you honestly think that by spewing all that bile, any other Independence voters will support ALBA?
Because I know I won't, I've voted for ALBA in the past, but won't anymore as they come across as a Scottish version of UKip or the Brexit party.
"I've loathed her since she took over" says more about you than it does about anything else.
DeleteReplacing the SNP with Alba may not be totally impossible, but from where we're starting it would be a 20 year project - certainly not remotely consistent with the original Alba message that appealed to me so much, ie. that we wanted independence in the "here and now", not in some far-distant hypothetical future.
ReplyDeleteAlso, even if Alba were eventually to "replace" the SNP - i.e. achieve a comparable level of electoral success - wouldn't the exact same problem exist? You would have a large group of MPs whose income and status depend on MPs still being a thing, a government with fairly secure power and influence which is reluctant to rock a boat which is serving them well, an army of staff and hangers-on who were attracted only by the party's success, etc. Is there any reason to believe Alba would be immune to all this? We'd wait years and then the movement would splinter again as people argue that Alba have sold out and need to be replaced.
Alba could only ever have worked as an influence on the SNP. Maybe there's still a faint chance that could be achieved with a new leadership.
James, if it hadn't been gender recognition it would have been some other reason for those folk to attack the SNP. It will only be through the SNP that independence will happen. It won't be achieved by marching doon the Royal MIle.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be achieved *without* marching doon the Royal Mile either. Governance is important, but so is the morale and visibility of the movement.
DeleteJames, unless Alex Salmond does what you've done and voices the concerns of those who genuinely want independence, and tells the people within the party who are conducting this war of hatred against the FM to cease and desist from doing it Alba will be destined for the bin
ReplyDeleteAny political party is judged by its leader, and Alex Salmond in the publics perception is not leading a political party he appears to be leading and condoning a hate squad
Alex cannot be allowed to continue to be the leader if he refuses to accept that responsibility
Well said Mr Kelly, I'm a SNP voter & a Independence supporter, at the last Scottish elections, I even gave ALBA my 2nd vote, but since then, there's been a marked increase in hating NS & the SNP, putting down our cause at every turn, this isn't how Independence supporters are supposed to get along for the greater good, but all the Anti NS & SNP hatred is putting me & a lot of others from ever voting for ALBA again. Another thing thats worth pointing out is that if the vote collapsed for NS & the SNP, why does ALBA think they'll be a shoe in replacement for them & they'll carry on fighting for our Independence, as it takes between 25 to 30 years for a political party to gain the publics trust enough for them to gain their vote & I can't see ALBA having massive support for years to come.
ReplyDeleteSure you voted alba... but changed cos of some krap some people posted..
DeleteDon't believe you for a second. Alba is a conviction vote...for those who really want independence...wishart et al and their constant lies about Alba and more importantly the route to independence don't get a mention from you nor put you off SNP..
It's obvious you're an anti alba fake yes looking for a reason to putethem down.
The people who really want Independence don't spend their time attacking the party with the largest Independence support and the biggest political clout.
DeleteThose who attack Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP the most are those that support the Union.
Alba a conviction vote? what does that actually mean?
DeleteA conviction that Alba will what? do what? how? when? if? maybe? what does that mean?
I definitely did give ALBA my 2nd vote, but whether you believe me is irrelevent, I was going to vote Greens as they too support Independence, but when AS formed ALBA, I liked the thought of having another Indy supporting political party to fight the other Unionist parties in Scotland.
DeleteI also thought the way AS was dragged through the courts was appalling.
Not only did it tarnish Mr Salmonds reputation, it caused a split between AS & NS.
Which (imo) was originally part of the UK States plan anyway,
it was started by a certain Whitehall civil servant who I won't name for legal purposes & she started the ball rolling against AS.
Anyway to get back on topic, I'm not here to throw shyte at ALBA, I'm just saying that with the more aggressive attitude you get with ALBA is refreshing, but a lot of the anger is being aimed at the SNP instead of the other Unionist supporting political parties, which isn't helping our cause.
We all know the UK Government & State are dodgy bar stewards & are not to be trusted, theyre not called Perfidious Albion for a reason.
I could see where Alba was likely going from very first press conference, especially when I realised who was at the controls & I knew then it would have to be a long game project. Quite how they still don't baffles me. Labour style opposition with Tory style attempts to dethrone SNP leader by personal attacks is not the way ... a younger Alex Salmond out for building popularity wouldn't have taken this route & I know of former SNP politician(s) who went to Alba who disagree with the nu-Salmond path
ReplyDeleteIndependence won't be won with Sturgeon still as FM. She simply has no desire to see it happen. Everything that has transpired since her elevation proves it. She's the unionists' best asset.
ReplyDeleteApart from Stuart Campbell.
DeleteStuart Campbell sharing his mind reading abilities again?
DeleteTasty photo you sent me xxxxxxxx
ReplyDelete