The polls have consistently shown Humza Yousaf in third place, distantly behind both Kate Forbes and Ash Regan, on net approval ratings. They've also consistently shown him in second place, behind Ms Forbes but ahead of Ms Regan, on positive preferences for SNP leader. Literally the only sense in which he's ever been "ahead" is in the betting odds - which of course are based on assumptions and guesswork about how the vote is likely to go, rather than on any objective measure of popularity. At one point Mr Yousaf was an extremely strong favourite because it was assumed the SNP would never elect a leader with Ms Forbes' strong religious views. As the polls have started to challenge that assumption, Ms Forbes' odds have gradually shortened again, and now she looks close to returning to her previous position as outright favourite. Here are the latest prices from the largest betting market...
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Kate Forbes is now very close to resuming her place as betting favourite
Humza Yousaf: 1.8
Kate Forbes: 2.34
Ash Regan: 21
Translated, that means Mr Yousaf is thought to have just over a 50% chance of winning, Ms Forbes is thought to have just under a 50% chance, and Ms Regan is considered a rank outsider. That's a remarkable comeback for Ms Forbes, who at one stage had slipped to around a 10% chance.
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You're right that Ash is the outsider on those odds, but they suggest a 5% chance for her at this stage. Not at all bad when she still has the hustings and debates to come.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'd agree with that.
DeleteHell yeah
DeleteThere's simply no-one else that cuts the mustard.
DeleteRemember less than a week ago.
DeleteSky bet had the odds as Yousaf 1/3, Forbes 11/4, Regan 3/1.
The amount of money placed on Kate has resulted in the fluctuation.
The bookies are simply trying to balance the books in what is a volatile market.
In horse racing - in a 3 horse race, the outsider of 3 wins on a surprisingly number of occasions.
Ash Regan is far too big a price
The figures I gave in the blogpost are from a betting market, so they're not set by bookies, they're organic.
DeleteFingers crossed - maybe we wont get a numpty.
ReplyDeleteAll these WGD/SNP numpties should ask themselves what age they will be in 2050 as it seems to be the new target date for independence for Sturgeons gang. They call themselves gradualists - which is an appropriate term but they ain't independence supporters.
ReplyDeleteKome on, Konsider Karefully. Kategorically, it Kan only be Kate.
ReplyDeleteIn any kind of sane world it would be Ash. The 2014 membership boom had everything to do with independence and nothing to do with so-called progressive politics.
ReplyDeleteVery important article by Craig Murray and guest.
ReplyDeleteSNP Branch Convenor calls on Humza Yousaf to stand down from the leadership election as a matter of honour and integrity. Hm it's Yousaf, a member of Sturgeon's gang it ain't gonna happen cheats will cheat.
DeleteEmma Harper SNP MSP caught cheating to favour Yousaf. I genuinely feel sorry for the decent people still clinging on to the hope that the SNP can be saved from Sturgeon's gang. Nothing but contempt for the numpties now as there is a mountain of evidence as to what Sturgeon is.
So who gave Harper the members details so that she could canvass them ( breaking the rules both by getting the info and canvassing) on behalf of Yousaf? Surely a sacking offence!
DeleteCould there be another 'unfair, unlawful and tainted by apparent bias' court judgement on the horizon? and it won't be public funds picking up the bill this time.
DeleteThe SNP Convenor Steve Norris tells yesindyref2 to put away his fig leaf as he tries to defend Yousaf on Craig Murray's blog. Another tells yesindyref2 he should have gone to specsavers.
DeleteCorrupt people in the SNP only get away with it because of people like yesindyref2 and all the other WGD numpties.
I consider myself a pragmatist on Scottish independence. I support the right of the people to decide more than I support it outright myself.
ReplyDeleteTo me Ash Regan IS the pragmatist candidate. She's the only one saying that at any election it's in the hands of the people, not some convoluted strategy made up by "leaders".
We want indy when a majority of our people want it. No ifs, no buts. To me that is the pragmatist candidate.
If we don't want indy, a majority is there. If we don't, no majority is there for it and it will not be moved. It leaves it in our hands at all times. This is the way forward.
If Westminster say no to a majority, then we're no worse than before. We build a bigger majority based on this disgrace. We take the moral high ground. Dare I say until the settled will is established.
Seeking a mandate for negotiations with London is not UDI. It IS making the pragmatic case for self rule. We can do nothing else.
If the SNP fail to lead on an ability to demonstrate my choice on this matter, I will not vote SNP. I genuinely consider myself a fairly softly softly nationalist but if you think I'm voting for 16 years of fairly crappy (recently) govt you can think again. I'm voting SNP for one reason only. To send my voice to power.
What a fking load of rubbish 2nd rate candidates - even Ash R is only just a bit okay. The SNP is fkd and I expect them to get a relative drubbing next HR election. Rudderless, directionless ships with poor captains go adrift, hit icebergs and sink with lots of casualties. Beginning to think the Greens are our only hope (Alba has lost the plot and is simply unsympathetic and unlikeable at this time).
ReplyDeleteI'm not entirely sure where the hope lies, but I can say with 100% confidence that it doesn't lie with the Greens. In a sense I disagree with your central point too, because I think Kate Forbes actually is an inspiring candidate, but unfortunately she's far too hesitant on independence strategy. If the question was simply "who will be a good First Minister?", Forbes would be a no-brainer.
DeleteThe Greens are full of social/sexual engineering bampots and I say that as someone who marched in the heavy rain in Glasgow to express my concern about climate change. Just like Sturgeon they are parasites hingin on the yes vote.
DeleteI want indy - a 'good' or even 'great' SNP leader doesn't do that if indy is in a queue aand at the back as an after-thought - thank Ms S for that. But, of course, I agree with you James, it's just I don't buy the ticket to see Oasis and rest contented with just the opening band act, being told that Oasis will make an appearance one day.
DeleteYou've skipped an election. A Westminster election is probably coming this year, possibly even as soon as May. It's why Sturgeon bailed - the SNP's focus group research told them that a single-issue election was a shite idea, even after the Supreme Court's rejection.
DeleteIt's why even the "hardline firebrand" Regan has walked back from that position and instead suggests a full manifesto will follow that first line of 50%+1 being enough to trigger independence.
On what planet is there going to be a Westminster election this year, let alone before May? The timing of the election is in the gift of Rishi Sunak, who is currently 20-ish points behind Labour in the polls. Why precisely would he throw his own job away?
DeleteThe polls are beginning to narrow. As for why a snap election sooner rather than later - because they don't want to have fixed the bugs of voter ID, which will be exposed by the local elections. Once that happens, angry (non)voters are going to get themselves some IDs - and they certainly won't be voting Tory, not that they were likely to in the first place.
DeleteAs you say, Sunak isn't going to throw his job away. I agree, but in my view that includes feebly clinging on to the grim end as Brown or Major did. He doesn't want to do that and he will call an earlier election when he thinks he can win it.
I'm struggling to understand what you're talking about, I've got to be honest. If the polls are narrowing it's not by much, and there's no way on God's earth the Tories will have closed the gap within a few months. The idea that "avoiding fixing the bugs in voter ID" will be enough to motivate the Tories to embark on a suicide mission is fanciful in the extreme.
DeleteA very assured and impressive performance by Forbes on Scotland Tonight. Someone like Forbes who is more business/practical orientated will be better rec'd than the social engineering stuff of the Sturgeon years. Forbes I would like to think would be competent and effective as FM doing the day to day job. However, I would like to hear more about her views on the real day job of the SNP - independence. Anyone who thinks Yousaf should get their vote is either a part of Sturgeon's gang or a numpty. If Yousaf is FM I think the SNP, like Stevie says, would get a drubbing at elections. If Forbes I think they would do as well if not better than Sturgeon at elections. But will she be a damp squid or worse, like Sturgeon, a liar about independence. Somehow I don't think she will be a liar but ultimately you never know with politicians. At age 32 she may think she has plenty of time to deliver independence.
ReplyDeleteAmongst the members Kate Forbes is a mile in front of Humza Yousaf and Ash Regan is a very distant no chance behind him
DeleteAnonymous - so you have done some private polling of how many members? Is that you Dr Jim? If you are that sure of the result why bother with hustings and a vote?
DeleteSchool children across England are protesting about the unsuitability of their unisex toilets. No doubt Skier and his French wife will be packing at this moment to travel down and reassure them that there is no problem.
ReplyDeleteDon't see him going to England, he never shuts up about how much he hates that country and its people.
DeleteAnonymous - but he loves visiting toilets more.
Delete70% of SNP members are over 50. A stat that is very important when considering the way people are likely to vote. If it is a fair vote, then Humza should have no chance. He is playing to the youth wing and the gender obsessed members. However is it a fair vote??
ReplyDeleteI doubt that 70% statistic. Everyone I know over the age of 50 has left the Party in disgust months if not years ago. Well more like driven from the Party actually.
DeleteYou can doubt as much as you like.Not only is the stat correct but the 18-24 yr age demographic only constitute 3% of the party membership.
DeleteAre you taking those stats from The National piece of a few days ago? If so, I believe they're two or three years out of date. They're probably still in the right ballpark, but we can't be completely sure.
DeleteCorrect and as you say the current figures are more than likely as close to the previous as makes no difference.
DeleteSNP to get a drubbing at the next Holyrood election? So Sarwar or DRoss will be the next FM ? Cannae see either of that happening..
ReplyDeleteReally? I suggest you urgently acquaint yourself with a comparison between the net approval ratings of Anas Sarwar and Humza Yousaf.
DeleteA Labour victory in 2026 is only unlikely if Yousaf loses this leadership election.
A relative drubbing. Sturgeon promised lots of goodies but Forbes won't be believed if she does in this economic climate. the Brit parties may get enough MSPs to knock the SNP out of office. That's a relative drubbing - the SNP can't even defend itself in the media - a poor indicator.
DeleteSturgeon has made it clear she favours Yousaf yet some SNP members think it is ok for her husband Murrell to have anything to do with the leadership election. Murrell lied at the Parliamentary Inquiry and the SNP accounts are being investigated by the police. More recently Harper has been breaking the rules in conjunction with his people. Just how is Murrell not suspended right now. Oh that's right his wife is the leader of the party.
ReplyDeleteIt surely must be obvious to any person who claims to have any understanding of integrity and probity that this is wrong.
It was always wrong for a husband and wife to hold both these positions but the SNP let it happen.
The Sturgeon propagandist Skier, and by that definition alone a liar, is continuing to punt the idea that the election of the SNP leader should be all in private as members are ONLY electing a leader of the SNP and not FM. Nobody but a numpty would believe that. He is also now trying his desperate best to try and influence the other WGD numpties away from Forbes. Most of them now for Forbes. How many of them will be smart enough to see through his propaganda?
ReplyDeleteTime for Humour
DeleteThe Sturgeon Propagandist Ross Anderson also known as multi National Skier who has posted vast swathes about his life, politics, professions, love of unisex toilets and anything and everything on public blogs over many many years now says:- " My politics are private. The British scum have no right whatsoever to know I'm member and what my views are."
The only way anything about Ross is private is if he has been posting a pack of lies all these years.
Funny you should say that...
DeleteThe three SNP leadership candidates will take part in a debate on BBC Scotland on 14th March.
ReplyDeleteWhy ? The BBC are the enemy propaganda station.
DeleteCollette Stevenson MSP SNP East Kilbride has posted a wee video saying Yousaf is the man. Never heard of Collette although East Kilbride ain't that far away from me. She has introduced me to another phobia I was unaware of - biphobia - and says Yousaf will sort out the people who hold these views. So that got me thinking what other phobias are there that these people will come up with - hey she missed out Maggie Chapman of the Greens favourite - non - binaryphobia. And what about all these +++ that they stick on the end of LGBT - is there a +phobia.
ReplyDeleteThe main phobia they don't seem to have is UKphobia. I plead guilty to that one.
If you want more of this sort of crap from the SNP then Yousaf really is your man. Mind you based on his infamous white person speech you would almost think he had a whitephobia. If you have a private school phobia and don't want to see another one in a top job in Scotland then Yousaf ain't your man.
I certainly cant wait till Skier find outs that (as far can tell) the only media broadcasting the hustling live tonight, is the SNP. After all according to him open democracy is bad, Scotland should be more like Russia and not have transparency in in its democracy.
ReplyDeleteYou're wrong. STV are broadcasting the event and is available on their news website.
DeleteDid Ash Regan upset WGD numpties like Dr Jim by saying Peter Murrell in charge of the vote would be like Boris Johnston's wife Carrie counting the votes for his successor. Crikey is that how Liz Truss won 😀. The numpties just don't like the truth. They prefer to ignore it. Not a word from them regarding the polis investigation in to the missing funds even though their great leader Sturgeon confirmed it was a live investigation at her leaving speech.
ReplyDeleteIt would be great if an SNP member said to Murrell where is the £600 k at one of the hustings but it sounds like he grabbed all the tickets for the Sturgeon/Yousaf supporters.
A wee up yours to Skier and Dr Jim - I’m watching the hustings. Russell is looking more and more like that old Tory PM from the 50s Harold McMillan which is quite appropriate since he is an old Tory.😂
ReplyDeleteI have absolutely no idea why anyone who is for independence and/or the SNP would want to stop that hustings being broadcast. An excellent session that was to the credit of all the participants and showed the SNP in a favourable light. It was nice to see the candidates relaxed and giving full answers to questions without looking a bit stressed by Britnat media personnel continually interrupting them.
DeleteAs Forbes and Regan are friends I would like to see them working together - Forbes running the government - Regan controlling independence strategy.
Yousaf punting having a rebuttal unit. Whatever happened to the last one?
ReplyDeleteIt's sad that none of the candidates when asked about N.Ireland being in the single market mentioned that the Treaty of Union 1707 ( you know the one that independence will terminate ) has as part of its articles that there will be the same trading environment for all. If the treaty is a historic antiquity ( as some say) with no value then on what basis is there a separate Scottish legal system or indeed on what basis are we in this U.K.
ReplyDeleteA shockingly biased review of the SNP hustings by Scotland Tonight. Colin McKay says Yousaf is in front and Regan well behind. They even bring on the ex Daily Mail journalist who has upgraded to the Sun to give her views on the hustings. They also made a jibe about the members there not being keen on the media. No wonder. The British run all media in Scotland. They used to use the British army forts and garrisons to control Scotland now they use the media. If you want the truth about the hustings watch them yourself. Don't rely on the British media or indeed WGD as both are populated by liars and propagandists.
ReplyDeleteAll the candidates at the hustings made a big play about delivering on manifesto commitments eg the A9 not one of them said anything about the manifesto commitment re Indyref2. It was almost like being back in 2015 again. 8 wasted years by Sturgeon.
ReplyDeleteI note that the big dug who has been telling his doggers that he is too tired to write articles for them seems to be able to churn them out for the Sturgeon/Yousaf/Murrell supporting The National. What a charlatan.
ReplyDelete