Tuesday, December 13, 2022

The earth shakes as support for independence rockets to 53% with traditionally No-friendly pollster YouGov - the FIFTH poll in a row to show a pro-indy majority

The situation is becoming increasingly desperate for the unionist ultras who have been frantically trying to hold the line that there has been no backlash in Scotland against the Supreme Court ruling, that there isn't a very clear pro-independence majority as a result, and that any polls that might suggest otherwise can be safely disregarded.  The problem with dismissing the recent Ipsos poll as an outlier caused by bias or a conspiracy is that you then need every other poll from every other firm to show something totally different.  Instead, the opposite has happened - every other firm has corroborated Ipsos' findings.  We now have four polls from four different firms since the Supreme Court ruling, and all four show a Yes majority.  Not one even has the Yes vote below 52%.  OK, it was possible to raise one or two question marks about Find Out Now given their lack of a track record in Scotland - but how do you dismiss this new Yes majority from YouGov, a traditionally No-friendly firm that has been regularly polling in Scotland for a couple of decades?

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 6th-9th December 2022)

Yes 53% (+4)
No 47% (-4)

By the way, just to clear up any potential confusion - there have been four consecutive Yes-majority polls since the court judgement, but the final poll before that landmark event also showed a pro-indy majority (albeit that poll used a non-standard question).  So that's why the title of this blogpost refers to a fifth poll in a row.  

Particularly encouraging here are the fieldwork dates - respondents were interviewed entirely after the Ipsos poll closed, and well after the Redfield & Wilton poll ended. There was some overlap with the fieldwork for Find Out Now, but YouGov didn't start their interviews until Find Out Now had been underway for some five days.  So although it's still far too premature to say the Yes bounce won't turn out to be temporary, it's certainly proving to be more than a one-week wonder.

As I predicted at the time of the Ipsos poll, it looks like online firms will only corroborate the Ipsos independence findings, and not the Ipsos finding that the SNP are on course for an absolute majority of the popular vote at the Westminster general election - which of course is crucial, because it's the general election that the SNP are planning to use as a de facto independence referendum.  If headline Yes support doesn't translate to the vote that is actually going to be used, it won't do us much good.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 43% (-2)
Labour 29% (-2)
Conservatives 14% (+2)

So far I can't find the numbers for the smaller parties, and obviously if there's a Green percentage that will be critical, because Green votes would also count as pro-indy votes.  However it does look unlikely that there is a majority for pro-indy parties in Westminster voting intentions as of this moment - if YouGov's methodology is correct and Ipsos' methodology is wrong, which are two big ifs.  In normal circumstances, though, I would say these figures are extremely heartening, because they may indicate that the SNP have come through the worst of the Labour surge with a substantial lead intact, which puts them on course for another landslide in terms of seats.  It's certainly a lot healthier a lead than some of the polling subsamples have been suggesting of late.

The Times' write-up of the poll predictably places a lot of emphasis on the findings of supplementary questions which supposedly show a lack of enthusiasm for an early referendum within Nicola Sturgeon's preferred timescale, and for a de facto referendum.  I'd advise taking those results with a heavy dose of salt, because for reasons that are not entirely clear, YouGov always seem to show markedly lower support for a referendum than other firms.  It must be some sort of YouGov 'house effect', but whether it's mostly to do with question wording, or with the composition of the YouGov panel, is hard to say.

And now, drumroll please, here's the moment you've all been waiting for.  What does a fifth consecutive pro-indy majority mean for the average Yes vote across all polls in 2022?  The latest update is below.

Average yearly support for independence in conventional opinion polling:

2016:  47.7%

2017:  45.3%

2018:  45.5%
 
2019:  47.6%

2020:  53.0%

2021:  49.6%

2022:  49.7%

So 2022 now shows the second highest pro-independence support of any calendar year in history, and is genuinely within touching distance of joining 2020 as one of only two years in which there has been an outright pro-independence majority.  It just depends on whether there are more polls to come over the final three weeks of the year, and obviously also on whether the trend of Yes-majority polls continues.

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26 comments:

  1. Some might suggest that the 'time' is as right as it is likely to get and that a determined move towards a plebiscite, in the earliest possible election that can be contrived, is an urgent priority.

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  2. My MP Tommy Sheppard kicking the can down the road in his newsletter:
    ‘ We should certainly see the next election as a step in the journey rather than concluding the debate. And all of this will require reflective, thoughtful discussion between all of us who support Scotland becoming a normal self-governing country.’ Whoohoo! Hold me back.

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    1. That's a U-turn hidden in plain sight, unless of course he's only speaking for himself. By definition, a de facto referendum cannot be just "a step in the journey".

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  3. Every % variance from SNP and Indy support is a massive challenge that needs a tactical response.

    Were going to need non-partisan, green and Alba voters to count. Simply hoping they'll vote SNP is a barrier we could do without.

    Maybe an umbrella yes party or a declaration that green and Alba (other indy parties) votes count but that's messy too.

    Really don't the answer but hope someone is thinking about it carefully.

    Making it partisan as opposed to Yes in 2014 is a barrier we could do without for converting soft Nos

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  4. Time and again I see comments from 'SNP faithful' online stating that the de facto referendum election, if won, will be another mandate for an independence referendum and therefore an S30 cannot be denied. Sigh......Have they learned nothing?

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  5. People need to know what they are voting for - the SNP speak with fork tongue. I

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    1. The same SNP that keeps winning elections ?

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    2. Anonymous - Labour used to keep winning elections and did SFA for Scotland. SNP = Labour hiding under a tartan cloak.

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    3. Yes. You know the one that keeps promising jam tomorrow but only delivers stale bread.

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  6. WISHART GOES ROGUE

    Sturgeon superfan Ruth Wishart goes rogue on Scotland Tonight. Well as much as any numpty Sturgeon superfan can go rogue. When asked who is your politician of the year Wishart picks J. Cherry. She goes on to say it was silly for her to be kicked off the front bench by Blackford. Not only that when asked why she didn't pick Sturgeon ( obviously what was expected) she waffled that Sturgeon is a first rate politician and says:-

    " for my taste she is an over cautious first rate politician".

    In other words as I have said previously a good politician but a useless independence leader. I'm guessing Wishart won't be getting her Xmas card this year unless it is already in the post. Nobody does nasty petty vindictiveness better than Sturgeon.

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  7. The SNP will just ignore the people of Scotland. Same as Westminster does.

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  8. You'll be running out of sensational headlines at this rate.

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  9. Thanks to Brexit we know that a 52:48 split is a massive, unquestionable majority for the most radical change possible. I hope the likes of Alister Jack is reminded of that every time he babbles on about sustained 60% support being needed.

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  10. WGD numpty Capella says: - " We can vote to repeal the TofU any time we choose. No more UK." Try telling that to Sturgeon or any of the other time wasting MP/MSPs. Capella you are a right numpty.

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    1. I'm surprised the WGD moderators allow that kind of thing - it's Peter A Bell-style "dissolve the union" fantasy stuff.

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    2. There are some pretty extreme posters on there, intermittently fantasising about violent insurrection or arguing that we should declare independence on a simple majority of FPTP seats. It's a bit bemusing that they're so supportive of the middle-of-the-road SNP.

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    3. Keaton - you are correct it is bemusing. Or as I would put it they are all over the place trying to stay on side with what Sturgeons gang are doing along with their own thoughts about what should be happening. So they make sense of it by, for example, saying it is all part of a secret Sturgeon plan that only Sturgeon can know and understand. Hail the great leader - we are not worthy.

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    4. It's like the Russian peasants and workers who naively thought of Tsar Nicholas II as "Little Father" and thought he was privately some sort of socialist.

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  11. Every news item I heard on this poll was at pains to point out that only 40% agree with a defacto referendum. They appear to spin this for all their worth to say it’s not as good as it looks. What’s your take on this James?

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    1. As I said in the blogpost, YouGov have for years consistently shown lower support for anything to do with a referendum than other polling firms have. That seems to be carrying over to the de facto referendum issue, which other pollsters have shown support for.

      But we can rely on our solidly unionist media to try to kid themselves that the main story here is something other than a traditionally No-friendly pollster showing Yes on 53%.

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    2. Anonymous - perhaps it is only 40% because some people think it is outrageous that a normal referendum is not taking place.

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  12. For anonymous further up - yes the same SNP that keeps winning elections. I'm one of the ones daft enough to vote for them. But when I do vote for them, the promises they gave before the election turn out to have a different interpretation after words eg. mandate or de facto. I just want to know what I'm voting for - is that really such a problem?

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  13. Another 2 polls and I might start believing : my view is by a bitter winter's suffering of Eat-or-Heat, the Scots will have had enough and 56% YES will become the base line come end of March (2023 or more likely 2024) - if it's March 2024 then the baseline will be 57%. The Brits have bankrupted British society both finanially and morally - broke and broken. With a passionate, moral independence campaign we can get 60%. That's our high water mark for the next ten to 15 years. If there's no acceptance of reality then my view is violence will result - and the Brits know it too...

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  14. The man of many nationalities and master of so many professions ( way to many to list ) WGD numptySKIER says this:

    Yearly averages are now

    2022 - 51.1%
    2021 - 50.2%
    2020 - 53.8%

    He says he uses a different methodology to SGP. I will do my best to accurately reflect what he says.

    1.James uses all polls.

    2. Skier uses the same number from each polling company. So if yougov have one poll in the year and panelbase have 6 he will pick one of the 6 panelbase polls to use and so on for the other companies. Maybe James can make sense of it. Personally, it doesn't seem like an average of polls in the year to me. More like someone pockling the figures. Hey but I know nothing about polls but I do know Skier is a proven liar and a Sturgeon propagandist and is not to be trusted.

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    1. This is what destroys his credibility. He starts with the outcome he wants, and then works backwards to produce that outcome by any convoluted method he can dream up. He was doing this sort of thing on an almost daily basis in the run-up to September 2014.

      If anything, some would say that my own Yes average is too bullish, because it includes two online Ipsos polls with a non-standard question. I think that's justified because those polls were clearly about the principle of independence. But there's no way on God's earth that any honest average for 2022 would currently get Yes to 51.1%.

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    2. Skier has got into a frenzy as self-id approaches. No more onerous tours of the Borders in search of unisex toilets. At last Scotland's answer to Eddie Izzard can unleash 'Mme Skier' and have unfettered access to ladies loos. That's bound to help the cause of independence isn't it? How even the Duggers take this clown seriously is on of life's mysteries.

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