Monday, June 6, 2022

What are the implications of today's Boris Ballot for the Scottish independence campaign?

As you'll almost certainly have seen by now, the much-anticipated confidence vote in Boris Johnson's leadership of the Conservative Party has at last been triggered, and will take place tonight.  It's completely ludicrous that a ballot is taking place on the same day that it's announced - I can't think of any other context in which something like that would happen.  It presumably indicates that Graham Brady is working in Johnson's interests and has calculated that a quick vote will prevent momentum building up against the Prime Minister.

The delicious aspect of this, though, is that Douglas Ross is still the Westminster MP for Moray (one of the multiple jobs he refused to give up when he became Scottish Tory leader) and thus will have a vote tonight.  At first I wondered if the speediness of the ballot would be a get-out clause for him due to the difficulty of getting to London in time, but it turns out that there will be provision for remote voting.  So he's going to have to jump one way or the other, and realistically he's going to have to tell us how he votes.  It's not tenable for a party leader to hide behind a secret ballot. Past precedent suggests Ross has no moral compass whatsoever and will be solely motivated by being seen to be on the winning side - but he's been badly burned before after he incorrectly guessed what the winning side would be. My guess is he'll play it safe this time by backing Johnson but making a show of reluctance for the TV cameras: "I didn't vote FOR Boris Johnson as such, quite frankly Colin I was voting AGAINST Vladimir Putin."

An even bigger issue for us is how the outcome of the ballot will impact upon the prospects for independence.  Boris Johnson is uniquely unpopular in Scotland, and given that the majority SNP-Green government at Holyrood have guaranteed us that an independence referendum will take place before the next Westminster election in May 2024, there's a strong case to be made that it would be better for the Yes side if Johnson remains in harness to become effectively the leader of the No campaign in the referendum.  But unthinkable as it may seem, let's just suppose that the SNP and Greens renege on their #2023ReferendumGuarantee, perhaps because of a volcanic eruption in Inverurie or something.  In that case, the next general election would go ahead before any vote on independence.  Assuming it would be more optimal for the case for independence to be contrasted with ongoing Tory rule from London, it's arguable that it would be better if the Tories went into the election with someone capable of winning in England - and it's also arguable that someone like Jeremy Hunt is now more capable of that than Johnson.

The last time I made that point, our old friend Scottish Skier (you know, the one with the French wife and the Irish passport, although he rarely mentions them) took to the comments section of Wee Ginger Dug to accuse me of outing myself as a Tory sympathiser.  Er, no, Skier, it's called realistic and honest political analysis - something of an alien concept for you, admittedly.

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10 comments:

  1. Good article James, I particularly liked the last paragraph. " although he rarely mentions them" 不不不不不不不不 His Ski jump graph which purported to show independence is guaranteed if we just keep waiting for year after year has been conspicuous by its absence recently. Of course his stupid graph does not take into account incoming no voters to Scotland. He could do something useful for a change and carry out a survey in the borders of how many incomers there are. He claims to live in the borders and claims to be a polling expert.

    IMO what we need to improve the demand for independence in Scotland is the SNP and Greens to actually promote Scottish independence or better still just go away and let others do the job who actually want independence.

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  2. Meanwhile Hamish100 has sent the Bathtub Admiral Popov to the bottom of the basin:

    "Look you’re a royalist with military tendencies. I do get that.

    It’s the monarchists that keep Scotland in chains. I note the let’s be nice to them don’t support the idea of a Democratic Scotland.

    Incidentally the royals are unionists and will undermine."

    The hamster that roared!

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    1. Hamish the hamster going to war at sea with the Bathtub Admiral. It's time someone pulled the plug on both these WGD NUMPTIES.

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  3. Jeremy Hunt? You ‘avin’ a larf? Hunt represents a tiny rump of what was once mainstream conservativism. Remember, Johnson expelled 21 Tory MPs prior to the last election and others walked out in sympathy. For this very reason, Johnson’s position should be invulnerable. Credit where credit’s due, Johnson can be a ruthless bastard when required.

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  4. In Iain Lawson's blog he claims an alphabetty is at it again.

    " It may surprise you if I tell you that there is another trivial case taking place this very month again involving one of the same women. The exact same tactics in use again. Another political opponent in the dock again."

    The law providing anonymity is being abused by these people. However, Sturgeon can boldly go on the national news and tell us many of them are her pals but for years she claimed she did not know who they were. Johnston is a liar and so is Sturgeon. We in Scotland have the dubious pleasure of two governments headed by two liars.

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  5. Such is Johnson’s unpopularity across the UK, his removal might bring together the whole British nation as well as Scotland!

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  6. That Skier person, who uses another name in the National talks quite frequently about his French wife and Irish passport. He goes on quite frequently about how all the young voters are going to make such a difference this time around but doesn't mention the thousands of incomers or white settlers from South of the border who arrive in Scotland every year. It looks like we will never find out how many, going by the census fiasco.
    Check out "Hotel Rule Britannia" today in the Voices For Independence. It's absolutely brilliant.

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    1. Nice pic of Angus Robertson 突 and his delightful wife 惹cotlands very own second power couple, in Hotel Rule Britannia on YouTube.

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  7. Hamster Hamish says:- " Scotland is fortunate to have such a leader as the FM" what a nicophant.

    So who are the biggest grovellers and sychophants - WGD numpties over Sturgeon or Britnats over the Queen. It's reasonably close but my winner is the Britnats over the Queen. Both are pretty sickening. Of course the Bathtub Admiral ( formerly known as indyref2yespleasenicola) manages to be a grovellor and sycophant over both so he wins the individual prize. The prize is a full day licking Sturgeon and the Queens shoes clean. I am sure he will enjoy himself.

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    1. He'll have a fight on his hands with Skier when it comes to licking Nicola's boots

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