Thursday, May 26, 2022

Latest poll for #Referendum2023 shows Yes vote at 45%

As polling day approaches in next year's independence referendum, which the SNP-Green majority government have guaranteed us will be held on schedule, there's bound to be an increasing fascination with opinion poll results. It's therefore noteworthy that we now have the first #Referendum2023 poll to be conducted since the local elections.  

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov / The Times)

Yes 45% (-2)
No 55% (+2)

The last batch of polls prior to the local elections were actually pretty encouraging for the pro-independence side, with Yes percentage shares in the high 40s.  So on the face of it these latest numbers look slightly disappointing, but a few important points need to be remembered.  Firstly, YouGov tend to be on the No-friendly end of the spectrum, and it's therefore possible/likely that other firms would show better results for Yes.  Secondly, any individual poll that bucks a clear recent trend needs to be treated with caution until its findings are corroborated by one or two more polls.  It's entirely possible that the slight slippage for Yes is an illusion caused by the poll's standard margin of error, and indeed if you look at the numbers before Don't Knows are stripped out, the Yes drop is a statistically insignificant one percentage point. And lastly, 45% is a superb platform with which to start any referendum campaign, and far better than the starting-point for Yes in the run-up to the 2014 vote.  The poll is therefore total vindication for the Scottish Government's decision to pass the point of no return by committing itself beyond all shadow of doubt to a referendum within the next nineteen months.

It goes without saying that the commentary in The Times claiming that Nicola Sturgeon has failed to increase the Yes vote in her seven years as First Minister is highly misleading, because it takes a single poll out of context.  You really need to look at an average of recent polls, which would suggest that the Yes vote remains significantly higher than the 45% recorded in September 2014.


  1. You're too generous.
    I was hoping that Skier could be made to sweat over some “chartist” diagram of ropes and pulleys – which would, of course, show the inexorable rise in support for Indy over the last 7.5 years.

    1. The weel kent liar Skier, who never goes skiing, will have his ski slope graph showing base line support for independence at 60% in the next coupe of years.

  2. Funny how Dross didn't say it's time to move on regarding the ferries at FMQs. Is it because Sturgeon and Swinney haven't apologised?

    Swinney says he approved the ferry budget in 2015. So 7 years later no ferries. Sounds like an apology should be necessary as a minimum but this is the pair who didn't feel any need to apologise for their conduct in the persecution of Salmond over many years. Another misuse of public funds.

  3. " Absolutely outrageous how Reynolds is being rewarded."

    WGD numpty barpe complaining about head civil servant Reynolds who organised one of the illegal parties being rewarded instead of penalised. That is exactly what Sturgeon did with Lesley Evans but not a word from barpe. Typical WGD double standards. What a numpty.

  4. Does a specific polling company use exactly the same people, and the same number of the same people, for every poll on independence it takes?

    1. No. I think some of them use a pool of pre-selected panellists, so some of the same folk could end up in different individual polls, but the overall composition of every polling sample is different.

    2. Thanks, Kenny

  5. FFS the English are going mental. Trying to get God save the Queen to number one in the charts. The English obsession with royalty is downright weird. Do the English have a serf gene. A nation of grovellers who seem to know their place.

  6. Oh dear! Some spinning about 3% of (transferring) Alba voters going on here. Skier must really be able to slalom round the desks in Jackson's Entry.
    On a positive note, over 25% of Alba voters in Glasgow refused to give a 2nd preference to either of the Decaying Dictatorial Parties or the out-and-out Unionists.

    " scottish_skier says:
    May 27, 2022 at 1:03 pm
    Interesting data.
    % of second preferences going to pro-indy parties by first preference
    72.1% Green voters
    68.8% SNP voters
    59.1% Alba voters
    % of second preferences going to the Tories by first preference
    3.2% Alba voters
    2.6% SNP voters
    0.8% Green voters
    In Glasgow, for those using their second preference (which is more common for smaller parties for obvious reasons), Alba voters were the least likely to back another Yes party, and the most likely to back the Tories.”

    1. "The most likely to back the Tories" some pathetic spinning by Irish Skier - only 0.6% more than the SNP and that is probably down to the Tories being against Trans self ID. So why are 2.6% of SNP backing the Tories then Skier. Is Mike Russell one of them? Russell being more Tory than the Tories - the man who wanted to privatise the NHS.