Sunday, April 10, 2022

BMG poll is a big wake-up call to independence supporters: we can't afford to muck around at the local elections by not ranking all pro-indy candidates

The last set of Scottish local elections five years ago heralded a downturn in the SNP's fortunes and a boost for both the Tories and Labour, which was followed up in the general election shortly afterwards by the loss of 21 of the SNP's 56 seats, leading to an independence referendum being kicked into the long grass.  We're fortunate this time that the local elections are self-contained and not the first part of a two-act drama, because there is some polling evidence that history may be repeating itself to some extent - ie. the SNP may be dipping and Labour may be recovering, although luckily the Tories are going backwards on this occasion.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (BMG / Herald):

SNP 38%
Labour 24%
Conservatives 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Greens 4%

I haven't included percentage changes, because it looks to me as if there's a 10-point drop in the SNP's vote since the last BMG poll a year ago, and yet the BMG spokesman in the Herald piece says it's only a 6-point drop.  I'm not sure of the explanation for the discrepancy, but either way it's a substantial shift and takes the SNP back down to roughly the share of support they had at the 2017 general election.  The hope must be that margin of error effects are exaggerating the slippage - and indeed the recent Survation poll reported a much smaller drop in SNP support for Westminster.  

Nevertheless, this is a massive wake-up call for any independence supporter who is more interested in fighting the SNP or Alba at the local elections, rather than our real opponents in the unionist parties.  It's imperative that pro-independence voters give their top rankings in the ballot to all of the pro-indy candidates in their ward.  You can guarantee that Tory supporters won't be mucking around by only ranking one candidate or by spoiling their ballot papers.  We would be mad to let the unionists start with an in-built advantage.

There are also independence numbers in the poll, which are identical to the results of the recent YouGov and Survation polls - 

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47%
No 53%

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To catch up with my Scot Goes Popcast interview with Alba candidate Lisa Keogh, please click HERE (video version) or HERE (audio only).

15 comments:

  1. If the SNP wants me to vote for them, then they can acknowledge that 'women' is an exclusive sex class. That's all they have to do.

    And until they do, I'd rather spoil my vote. I'm the most fervent independence supporter you can get. But my support WILL NOT come at the cost of pissing on the dignity of women.

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    1. Sunshine on CrieffApril 10, 2022 at 5:18 PM

      I'm of the same opinion. SNP would view my vote as backing for their ludicrous gender identity agenda and not as a desire for independence. As independence is already "off the table" in the view of the SNP leadership I'll not do anything to further damage the interests of women and girls.

      Delete
  2. Platinum is correct a lot of people,especially women who were snp supporters,will not give their vote to snp because of this, and because they don't want to vote for another party will simply not vote.

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  3. I think it's inevitable that support for the SNP is going to be impacted by their flagging resolve for independence.

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  4. Independence For ScotlandApril 10, 2022 at 11:14 AM

    Your article states that the drop in votes for the SNP in 2017 resulted in no referendum. In my opinion there would have been no referendum anyway. It’s just a convenient excuse for people who want to excuse the SNP for not progressing independence.

    Sturgeon will always have an excuse. As will Robertson or any of her pals who follow her.

    I do NOT see the SNP as an Independence Party. They are the party of the Great Betrayal. Worse than any standard British party. I rank them below every other party.

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  5. What a surprise that James's appeal to logic isn't finding much of an audience with the Alba fans on here. The SNP loyalists on WGD are the same. Yes supporters hate each other much more than they hate the Tories.

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  6. The SNP suffocates the independence movement then wonders why fewer people want to vote for them.

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  7. Independence For ScotlandApril 10, 2022 at 3:13 PM

    Meanwhile in the land of the numpties and the home of the doggers the mad liar Irish Skier says he is unquestionably not an SNP loyalist. 😂😂😂 Perhaps what he means is that he is a Sturgeon groupie.

    Oh and thick Hamish100 is back to saying we will lose indyref2 if it is called now so we should not have a referendum and all those who want one are wrong. I don’t remember Hamish calling for a referendum when polls (19) were showing a consistent yes majority with a high of 58%.

    These are the sort of people Keaton thinks are independence supporters.

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    1. You've just said that you want the Tories to beat the SNP in this election, so I'm not sure you have much of a leg to stand on in this regard tbh.

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    2. Independence For ScotlandApril 11, 2022 at 11:20 AM

      Keaton, I actually said that the SNP are the Great Betrayers and I rank them below all other parties. I don’t care which British party is ahead in a local election. So try and improve the accuracy of your posts.

      Delete
  8. I would rather vote Tory than SNP

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  9. Vote SNP? Are you mad? They'll never get my vote again!

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  10. Independence For ScotlandApril 10, 2022 at 7:02 PM

    I do have to laugh at people like indyref2yespleasenicola when he says “other people” are trying to create division amongst independence supporters. This is the person who posted that EVERYONE refers to the Alba party as the sleepy cuddles party.

    Get yourself sorted before you complain about others. YA NUMPTY.

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  11. Independence For ScotlandApril 11, 2022 at 10:49 AM

    HOPE OVER FEAR

    Keaton takes the mad liar Irish Skier to task on WGD with sensible points re the SNP election leaflet.

    And then goes and spoils it all with his naive comment at the end that he has hope that the SNP leadership do not support the leaflet. This is the new Hope over Fear.

    People clinging to hope that the SNP leadership are not Britnats. The fear is all the evidence says they are nasty nasty Britnats that would throw their granny under a bus to stay in power and will not deliver independence.

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  12. Is Alba or ISP were fielding candidate in my ward I would list the SNP and Greens further down despite my disgust about many of the latters policies and general conduct. As Alba or ISP aren't standing I won't be voting. I am voting until I book. I just boak before I put any available party in first position.

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