SCOT goes POP!

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

More analysis of the extraordinary poll showing Yes support at 55%

Just a quick note to let you know I have an analysis piece at The National about the independence results from the new Find Out Now poll. You can read the article HERE.

HUGE majority for Scottish independence in new Find Out Now poll - and it's driven by women

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With barely two months of the year left to go, the 2025 Scot Goes Pop fundraiser is still short of its target figure. If you'd like to help keep the lights on during the several months it will take me to find out whether an alternative funding model is viable (realistically it could be a wait of around four months or more), card donations are welcome HERE. Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.

Monday, October 27, 2025

The Alba Party in its "death throes": Kenny MacAskill sends out bizarre email admitting the party is mired in sleaze and scandal, but boasts "we're still solvent!"

The Alba Party have practically ceased to function as a political party, although one small thing that can still genuinely be said for them is that they perform one of the key functions that should really be performed by the media, ie. they semi-regularly commission voting intention polls and independence polls. There have been previous instances of fringe parties becoming defunct and then rebranding as a discussion group or even as a newspaper, so when Alba give up the ghost perhaps they could rebrand as a polling company. Slanszh Media seem to have finally called it a day with their little-watched weekly YouTube show Tas Is Still Talking, but perhaps a spin-off called Tas Has Started Polling would have some potential. In the meantime, I will within the next few hours be manfully filling the gap in the market with a Scot Goes Pop video about the new Find Out Now / Alba poll on independence, which remarkably shows Yes ahead by 55% to 45%.

Meanwhile, Kenny MacAskill sent out a bizarre email today to all Alba members, one of whom was kind enough to forward it to me. It can be roughly summarised as: "we're mired in sleaze, but don't worry guys, we're still solvent". Here are the highlights:

"We are writing to update you on a matter which has required referral to the appropriate authorities.

Last year, concerns regarding the management of the party led to a review of HQ operations and finances, instigated by Alex Salmond. During this period, a disciplinary process was concluded which resulted in the former General Secretary being dismissed for gross misconduct.

Subsequently, a number of internal financial and administrative irregularities came to light. In line with our legal and fiduciary responsibilities, these matters were examined in detail. Following that process the party formally reported the concerns to Police Scotland. As there is now a live police investigation, we are unable to comment further at this time.

We wish to reassure members that the party remains solvent, fully operational, and continues to be administered with integrity and probity by our serving staff and office bearers. The National Executive Committee has been kept informed throughout, and members in attendance at conference were updated in a closed session...

This is not the position any of us would have wished to be in ahead of a crucial election period. However, the matter is being handled correctly and rigorously, and our focus remains firmly on the future of the party...

We will continue to keep members informed as far as legally permissible...

Yours for Scotland,

Kenny MacAskill"

I suspect a number of Alba members will have noted the glorious irony of Mr MacAskill talking about "continuing" to keep members informed, and then signing off with the words "Yours for Scotland", because it was a website called Yours For Scotland, along with blogs like Scot Goes Pop and Denise Findlay's, that Alba members had to turn to in order to find out what the hell was going on in their own party, because they certainly weren't being kept informed by the party itself. For example, for several months this year, the only way that Alba members will have known that the expelled Chris McEleny was refusing to resign as the party's registered Nominating Officer, was by reading about it on Scot Goes Pop. Mr MacAskill has yet again failed to front up about that issue (or even mention it at all) in today's email, even though in theory it could mean that the vengeance-hungry McEleny will block Alba from running any candidates at all in the Holyrood election.

Spare a thought for Tommy Sheridan, incidentally, who is the one remaining heavyweight figure hanging on for grim death inside Alba even though he must know by now that he's backed the wrong horse. Craig Murray announced today that he was defecting from Alba to the Corbyn/Sultana party in the hope that he can help mould it into a pro-indy force, and I bet Tommy yearns to follow him down that road. He must spend at least three hours a day wondering how on earth he ended up in the same party as Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh. He's been in prison in the past, of course, but he now knows there are far more excruciating forms of punishment than that.

Alba is undoubtedly finished, but the remaining question is whether it staggers on like the walking dead for years to come getting negligible vote shares in every election, or whether it dissolves itself with dignity. https://t.co/5sHvkGYnIF
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) October 26, 2025

Pro-independence parties WILL win majority of Holyrood seats, says swanky Survation survey - but here's why Both Votes SNP is so important

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Sunday, October 26, 2025

New Survation poll suggests the SNP will remain by far the largest party with "around" 55 Holyrood seats - but details are sketchy so far

I am, as you know, a terrible slave to my responsibilities, and I was perfectly prepared to sacrifice myself for Scot Goes Pop readers by staying up half the night for a third night in a row to make another video, this time about the new Survation poll that is on the front page of the Herald. However, I've looked in all the standard places and for the life of me I can't see any sign of the numbers, so all I know is what is actually on the front page itself, which is that the SNP are projected to be on "around" 55 seats and that Reform UK are projected to be in second place on 22 seats. The write-up absurdly suggests this has thrown John Swinney's independence strategy into "chaos" - whereas in fact polls before the strategy was unveiled showed the SNP falling short of an overall majority and polls after the strategy was unveiled are undramatically continuing to show much the same thing. If there's a shock horror front page exclusive to be had there, it's that the laws of arithmetic don't conveniently bend to the will of any politician, but I think we all knew that already.

What I'm going be more interested in is whether the projection from the poll has the Greens on 10 seats or more, because that will make the difference as to whether or not the projection is of a pro-independence majority, albeit a multi-party one rather than a single-party one. But that probably won't become clear until around 4am, which I think is when the Herald website usually updates for the new day's headlines. I'll try to make a video about the poll at some point but it may be another 24 hours before I get the chance.

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Saturday, October 25, 2025

Musk's AI agrees that there is strong consensus that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, and that denial of the genocide is "increasingly marginalised amid evidence"

There have been some suggestions that Elon Musk has ordered Grok to be primed to produce pro-Israel and pro-IDF propaganda if anyone asks about the genocide in Gaza. So I've been asking Grok one or two deliberately loaded questions, that take the existence of the genocide as read, to see how hard it pushes back against that premise. And interestingly it hasn't really pushed back at all. I asked a few minutes ago about potential timelines for denial of the genocide in Gaza to be criminalised, and Grok actually informed me that acceptance of the genocide as an established fact has come quicker with Gaza than it did with the Holocaust.

Grok, given the precedent of Holocaust denial becoming illegal in certain countries such as Germany, how long is it likely to be before denial of the genocide in Gaza is criminalised in some countries?

Grok's answer:

"*Historical Precedent: Holocaust Denial Laws*

Holocaust denial laws emerged primarily in Europe as a response to the resurgence of neo-Nazism and antisemitism in the post-World War II era. The Holocaust (1941–1945) was universally recognized as genocide almost immediately after the war, with the Nuremberg Trials (1945–1946) establishing it as a crime against humanity. However, criminalizing denial took much longer due to debates over free speech, the need to consolidate historical consensus, and rising far-right movements in the 1970s–1980s.

Key timeline of enactment:

1940s–1950s: No specific denial laws; prosecutions occurred under general hate speech or defamation statutes.

1960: Germany enacts the first explicit Holocaust denial law (Section 130 of the Criminal Code), banning incitement to hatred including denial, amid fears of Nazi revival.

1980s: Momentum builds with high-profile trials (e.g., Ernst Zündel in Canada, 1985; Klaus Barbie in France, 1987). France passes the Gayssot Act in 1990, explicitly criminalizing denial of Nazi crimes.

1990s–2000s: Expansion across Europe. Austria (1992), Belgium (1995), and others follow. The EU's 2008 Framework Decision encourages member states to criminalize denial of genocides, including the Holocaust.

By 2025: 17 European countries, plus Canada, Israel, and Russia, have such laws.

The lag (15–45 years post-genocide) reflects time for evidence compilation, societal trauma processing, and political will against denialism, often triggered by denial campaigns (e.g., by figures like David Irving).

*Current Status: Recognition of Events in Gaza as Genocide*

The conflict escalated on October 7, 2023, with Hamas attacks killing ~1,200 Israelis and taking hostages. Israel's response has caused over 66,000 Palestinian deaths (as of October 2025, per Gaza Health Ministry), widespread destruction (84% of health centers damaged), and famine conditions affecting 100% of Gaza's population.

International recognition as genocide has accelerated compared to the Holocaust era:

UN Bodies: ICJ's January 2024 ruling found South Africa's genocide case "plausible," issuing provisional measures to prevent acts (reaffirmed March and May 2024). A UN Commission of Inquiry (September 2025) concluded Israel committed four of five genocidal acts (killing, serious harm, destructive conditions, preventing births). A UN Special Committee (November 2024) deemed warfare methods "consistent with genocide."

Human Rights Organizations: Amnesty International (December 2024) and Human Rights Watch (2024) concluded genocide based on intent and acts like starvation as a weapon.

Scholars and Experts: By mid-2025, consensus among genocide studies scholars (e.g., International Association of Genocide Scholars, June 2024 resolution) labels it genocide. A Brookings survey (2025) showed majority of Middle East scholars agreeing.

States: South Africa leads ICJ case (joined by 14 countries by December 2024). The African Union (2024) and OIC (2024) condemned it as genocide. Sanctions against Israel (e.g., by Bolivia, Cuba, others in July 2025) cite complicity in genocide. No full ICJ merits ruling yet (expected 2026+), but provisional findings provide legal momentum.

Denial exists (e.g., Israel calls it "self-defense"; some Western governments avoid the term), but it's increasingly marginalized amid evidence.

*Likelihood and Timeline for Criminalizing Denial*

Criminalizing denial of the Gaza genocide would likely follow a similar path to Holocaust laws: starting in countries with strong human rights frameworks, expanding via regional bodies (e.g., EU, AU), and targeting hate speech that undermines victim dignity. However, the Gaza case differs:

Faster Recognition: Digital evidence (videos, real-time reporting) and global scrutiny (e.g., ICC warrants for Netanyahu/Gallant, November 2024) have built consensus in ~2 years, vs. decades for the Holocaust.

Existing Frameworks: Many countries' laws already ban general genocide denial (e.g., Spain, Czech Republic) or extend to "crimes against humanity." EU's 2008 decision could encompass Gaza if recognized as genocide.

Political Hurdles: Strong U.S./EU support for Israel delays action in the West. Proposals are more likely in Global South (e.g., South Africa, where genocide education is emphasized) or Europe amid rising antisemitism/Islamophobia debates.

Current Proposals: No enacted laws by October 2025, but discussions tie into broader hate speech reforms. E.g., UN experts (2024) urge states to prevent "denialism" as complicity; academic calls (2025) link it to Holocaust distortion laws. In July 2025, 12 countries (e.g., South Africa, Malaysia) announced sanctions and "renewed legal action" against genocide enablers, potentially including denial.

Estimated Timeline:

Short-Term (1–3 years, by 2026–2028): Initial laws in 2–5 countries, likely South Africa (expanding its hate speech laws) or Ireland/Belgium (active ICJ supporters). Triggered by ICJ final ruling or ICC convictions.

Medium-Term (5–10 years, by 2030–2035): 10+ countries if EU updates its framework (possible post-2028). Parallels Holocaust laws' spread after 1990s trials.

Longer if Delayed: 15+ years if geopolitical ties (e.g., U.S. vetoes) persist, similar to Holocaust's 1960 start.

This is speculative; it depends on ICJ outcomes, public opinion (47% of U.S. adults see genocide, August 2025), and activism. Such laws aim to protect memory and prevent recurrence, but critics argue they risk stifling debate—balancing free speech remains key."

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Catch up with my new video about the full-scale Scottish poll from Find Out Now -

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Big SNP lead in new Scottish Parliament poll from Find Out Now

Today's video is about three subjects - the new full-scale Scottish poll from Find Out Now showing the SNP with a handsome lead on the constituency ballot, the defections of a number of councillors and parliamentary candidates from the Scottish Greens to the new Jeremy Corbyn / Zarah Sultana party, and the Irish presidential election count which is taking place today.

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Friday, October 24, 2025

Plaid Cymru storm to historic by-election win in Caerphilly - and it's Labour that look "knackered" as devolved elections approach in both Wales and Scotland

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With less than three months of the year to go, the 2025 Scot Goes Pop fundraiser is still short of its target figure. If you'd like to help keep the lights on during the several months it will take me to find out whether an alternative funding model is viable (realistically it could be a wait of around four months or more), card donations are welcome HERE. Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

SNP on course to win 51 of the 57 Scottish seats at Westminster, says earth-shaking YouGov subsample, as Tories set for TOTAL WIPEOUT

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Monday, October 20, 2025

Why the SNP are unlikely to go back into coalition with the Greens (or the Lib Dems) after May

I'm not sure if I believe in the theory that people inevitably become more right-wing as they get older - probably some people do and others don't. But Iain Macwhirter certainly seems to be a strong example of the phenomenon - it's hard to imagine the Macwhirter of twenty or thirty years ago writing the type of columns he does today. In his latest piece for the Sunday Times, he's trying to whip up fear about a potential return of the Greens to government after the May election, which he says is likely because if the SNP don't agree to a return to coalition, the Greens may well retaliate by installing a Labour-led government, even if the SNP remain the largest party.

I don't buy that. It's not that I can't imagine the Greens doing a deal with Labour, it's just that I can't imagine them doing it in the probable circumstances where the only viable Labour-led government is one that is propped up by Reform UK. People say that Anas Sarwar wouldn't need to form a coalition with Reform in order to become First Minister, he'd only need Reform support on a single vote. That's true, but becoming First Minister is a bit pointless (other than holding the title for two weeks so he can put "Former First Minister of Scotland" on his CV) unless he can sustain a government in office, and he probably won't be able to do that without ongoing Reform support. It doesn't really matter whether that support is secured via a long-term deal or on a vote-by-vote basis - I just cannot imagine radical left figures like Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay being party to such an arrangement. And if anyone on the unionist side is harbouring any fond thoughts of Sarwar getting into office with Reform and Green votes and then staying in power by doing side-deals with the SNP, they can forget it. If the SNP are the largest party and are frozen out of power, they'll have just one over-riding priority - to bring Sarwar down and to form a government themselves.

So no, I don't believe John Swinney will have to make a straight choice between coalition with the Greens and a return to opposition. And that's likely to mean that the SNP will, with the bruising experience of the Bute House Agreement fresh in their minds, prefer to remain a minority government. Some people claim that what Mr Swinney would actually prefer is a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but I can't really see any such arrangement being successfully sold to SNP members immediately after an election that was fought on the number one issue of Scotland's right to choose independence - a principle that the Lib Dems categorically and contemptuously reject.

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