Support for independence once again holds up in the second poll to be conducted since the start of the war

Many thanks to an anonymous commenter on the previous thread for alerting me to the existence of a new Savanta ComRes poll - I probably would have overlooked it until tomorrow if he/she hadn't mentioned it.  

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Scotsman / Savanta ComRes, 10th-16th March 2022)

Yes 48% (-1)

No 52% (+1)

You might get the impression from some of the mainstream media's reporting of this poll that the increase in the No vote is 2%, but that's because the comparison is being made with the previous poll in the semi-regular Scotsman / ComRes series.  In fact, the correct comparison is with the more recent ComRes poll commissioned by the Economist, which had No in a very slight lead.

The Scotsman's own write-up of the poll should be taken with a heavy dose of salt, not least because it's written by Conor Matchett, who played a leading role in the notorious #Matchettgate fake poll scandal last year (indeed he gave his own name to the scandal).  In truth, today's numbers should be regarded as a tremendous relief for the Yes camp.  The previous ComRes poll was conducted at the very start of the invasion of Ukraine, and there was an obvious danger that as voters became preoccupied with the reporting of the war over a period of days and weeks that support for independence could have been adversely affected.  That appears not to have happened - the percentage change is statistically insignificant, and leaves the state of play roughly in line with the average results ComRes have produced over the last twelve months or so.  (Which also means that Joyce McMillan's accompanying analysis piece in the Scotsman speculating about the reasons for the 'fall in Yes support' is based on a false premise.)

Central to Matchett's reporting of the poll is a supplementary question that purports to show that, by a 2-1 margin, voters in Scotland think "discussions on when a second independence referendum should take place" should "stop" rather than "continue" due to the war.  (What discussions?  Yeah, exactly.)  That's an absurdly leading question that was deliberately designed to generate a unionist-friendly headline.  It pretty much guaranteed that the half of the population who oppose independence would eagerly say "discussions" should "stop", while significant numbers of independence supporters would join them due to a sense that they ought to.  It was the response that was clearly expected of them, after all.  With a bit of luck, that little stunt will prove to be pointless, because the mood music suggests that the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have a reasonable chance of bringing the war to an end.

The poll also has Holyrood voting intention numbers, which don't show dramatic changes, but are of interest for a couple of reasons.  Firstly, Labour have established themselves in a clear second place by opening up some daylight on the constituency ballot, and overtaking the Tories on the list ballot.  And secondly, Alba are registering (or "languishing" as Matchett rather desperately puts it!) on 2% for a third successive poll, which gives the distinct impression that Alex Salmond's party may have bounced back slightly in recent weeks.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 46% (-1)

Labour 24% (+2)

Conservatives 20% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)

Scottish Parliament list ballot:

SNP 34% (-)

Labour 22% (+2)

Conservatives 20% (-1)

Greens 13% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Alba 2% (-)

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Please bear with me as I continue promoting Scot Goes Pop's fundraising drive.  Opinion polls are so expensive that since I started commissioning them, fundraising has almost become like painting the Forth Bridge.  If you'd like to help this blog continue for another year, or to help us commission another full-scale poll like the six we've commissioned over the last two years, here are the various options for donating...

Via the new Scot Goes Pop general fundraiser for 2022.

Via the Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser for 2021-22, which I set up in the autumn and is part-funded.

If you prefer to donate directly, that can be done via Paypal or bank transfer:  

My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

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