Friday, January 21, 2022

First independence poll of 2022 sees Yes draw level in a Savanta ComRes survey for first time since April: does #Partygate mean #PartyOver for #OurPreciousUnion?

The final independence poll of last year - which was also the first since the ongoing story of the Downing Street parties broke - presented us with an enigma. It showed Yes on 50%, which was higher than in any online poll for months, but it was also conducted by a firm (Opinium) that had been tending to show markedly better results for Yes than other firms.  So was 50% just an Opinium house effect, or was it the first indication that #Partygate was having an impact on the constitutional state of play?  Today's first poll of 2022 gives some support to the latter interpretation, because it shows Yes on 50% - and this time it was conducted by a firm that has been particularly favourable for No over the last year or so.

Savanta ComRes poll, 14th-18th January 2021:

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 50% (+2)
No 50% (-2)

The last time a Savanta ComRes poll showed Yes in the 50s was way back in April, just before the Holyrood election, and the poll in question also showed a 50-50 tie.  There have been six polls from the firm in the interim, all showing a No lead, and all but one showing No on 52% or higher.  Today's poll, therefore, does have the appearance of a breakthrough for Yes.

Also important psychologically is that, across all polling firms, we've now had three polls in a row showing Yes on 50% or higher.  So, at least for the time being, it's very hard for the mainstream media to maintain the narrative that No is generally in the lead.  Or very hard for them to do that honestly, at any rate.

There are also Holyrood voting intention numbers from the poll - 

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:

SNP 47% (-1)
Labour 22% (-)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 38% (-)
Labour 20% (-)
Conservatives 18% (-4)
Greens 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
Alba 2% (+1)

Given the trajectory of recent GB-wide polls, it might have seemed inevitable that Labour would have built upon their second place in the last ComRes poll, but in fact their own vote share has remained static and the Tories have only dropped one point.  The Tory decline is much more pronounced on the list ballot, but again Labour have not picked up any support.

The Greens' vote of 12% looks very healthy, although actually that's very much within their normal range in Savanta ComRes polls - they climbed to as high as 13% in September.  The Lib Dem vote is unusually high, though - time will tell whether that's just a freakish result caused by sampling variation, or whether it's a genuine boost caused by their recent by-election success in England.  (For what it's worth, my guess is the latter.)

Also noteworthy is that Alba's list support has doubled from 1% to 2% - dealing a crushing blow to those harbouring misplaced hopes that the new party was somehow on its way out.

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15 comments:

  1. We're still all waiting for the Scottish government to get off their backsides and start fighting for our independence.

    Meanwhile get out the Saltire flags, the pro-independence badges, t-shirts, posters etc and display them with determination.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear anonymous. I very much disagree with your analysis. The snp, business for scotland and the national jointly distributed 1000000 newspapers across Scotland. That must have cost at least £100,000 and a huge amount of activists'shoe-leather. In our neighbourhood, we delivered 14,000 in less than 4 weeks. I am confident the referendum bill will go through Holyrood this year and then it for Westminster to decide whether they want to try and cancel democracy in Scotland by challenging the bill in the courts... If they do try, it's not going to be a great look for "British democracy".

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous visitor

      " ......cancel democracy in Scotland ......."

      There was no democracy for Scotland in 1707 and there is no democracy for Scotland today as long as Scotland is controlled by Westminster.

      ".... it's not going to be a great look for " British democracy"". Really do you think they will care how it looks. They haven't cared for 315 years why should they start now with a very right wing UK gov and out of the influence of the EU. People like Johnston care about how they look is not a very good argument for thinking they will allow the bill to proceed.

      So is Sturgeon going to request a sec 30 or has the gold standard been ditched?

      I commend your hard work in delivering the "Well being supplements" I just wish the contents were better. I read nothing in it to convince no voters who were yes in their heart but no due to the lies about massive monetary deficits i.e.GERS.

      Delete
    2. I wonder how we'd go about auditing the delivery of "1,000,000" newspapers? You may have delivered thousands in your locality but I'm in a tenement right in the middle of the Central Belt and I haven't yet seen anything.

      Delete
  3. Sur! Thur's been a breakthrough! Alec Lomax of WGD has acknowledged that Alba can score 2%.

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    Replies
    1. Aye but did he admit Alba is rising with a 100% increase in support? πŸ˜€

      Delete
    2. This is the new line from Gstaad. Alba are Stuckists.

      "Based on the figures, Alba are stuck where they were in May, which would be consistent with them maintaining the same unpopular leadership and electoral strategy that only chimed with 1.7% of voters, winning over no No SNP/Green voters net (these saw increased vote share combined)."

      Delete
    3. Bathman

      I saw those posts and they included Hamish stating James is being delusional and Dr Jim stating that Alba have been campaigning negatively for a year and a half. Poor Dr Jim - Alba have not been in existence that length of time - established in Feb 2021. You can rely on Jim for foaming mouth levels of bile but not so much on accuracy. No wonder he cannot see what is staring him in the face - it's all the foam.

      Delete
  4. I'm real dead upset. That nasty person who calls himself a Skier called me an "it" - boo hoo.

    Hate crime Skier - my preferred pronouns are not being used. Watch it or you will be expelled from the SNP.

    Like Johnston WGD people do not realise just how ridiculous they are.

    He then goes on to say how civil WGD is. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

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  5. MORE BLIND FAITH WGD STYLE

    Here is a cracker of a post from the ultimate nicophant nasty Dr Jim:

    "Nicola Sturgeon will release nothing, drip nothing and do no deals with Unionists over independence, all those mistakes were already made and used against us, Nicola Sturgeon will keep her mouth tightly shut until it's time to open it, then she'll do it properly, those insisting she must share the plans are just plain wrong"

    Jim seems to have forgotten she has already shared her 11 point plan for independence. Anyone know where we are on the plan? Jim certainly doesn't. Was the 11 point plan just a fancy bundle of carrots? Sorry to break it to Jim but Sturgeons only Independence plan is to avoid independence and remain as FM for as long as possible. .

    ReplyDelete
  6. The WGD numpties are having a cracking time arguing over who has a better grasp of basic arithmetic. Was the great leader correct to say 20% less infections in Scotland compared to England.

    It is correct to say that over the period of the pandemic infections and deaths have been lower in Scotland than in England. However, to use a football analogy England is at the bottom of the league table and Scotland is hovering around the relegation zone.

    Outcomes in both Scotland and England are poor. Both leaders should resign after presiding over the numbers of deaths. Nether will do so. There is no mitigation for Johnson in his handling of the pandemic. He made a complete bollocks of it and used it to enrich himself and his Tory pals. A mitigation for Sturgeon is her lack of powers in a devolved government but she has had multiple mandates to give Scots the opportunity to vote for independence and refused to proceed. So I repeat both should resign.

    ReplyDelete
  7. The mad liar Scottish or Irish Skier ( well whatever nationality he is self identifying at the moment) says I am " not very complimentary of this blog, the BTL commenters here, and the yes movement as a whole."

    I plead guilty to the first two but Skier seems to be lying again about the third. Unless of course in his mind he and other WGD numpties and the SNP think they are the yes movement.

    In summary, Skier is lying again or his arrogance is beyond belief that he, Hamish100 , Nasty Dr Jim, other WGD numpties and people like John REDACTOR MAN Swinney and Iain BLOWHARD Blackford are the yes movement.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Has John REDACTOR MAN Swinney been parachuted in to Downing st to advise on redacting and general covering up tactics. We've wiil find out next week if the Gray Report is reduced, summarised or redacted (for legal reasons of course) and the buck is passed on ( ala James Hamilton ) to someone else to make a decision.

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  9. Ian BLOWHARD Blackford saying their must be full transparency in Sue Grays report about Downing st. You mean like the SNP did around the Sturgeon Parliamentary Inquiry. These politicians - what a brass neck they have.

    ReplyDelete
  10. BREAKING NEWS

    There has been a major development on Scottish independence. Nicola Sturgeon says she intends to have a referendum.

    ReplyDelete