Sunday, December 26, 2021

Boxing Day drama as new Opinium poll is first online poll since early September to show support for independence at 50% or higher

So I've got my wish - the Opinium poll for the Sunday Mail contains independence referendum voting intention numbers, so at last we have an opportunity to judge the impact of the Downing Street party on the state of play.  But actually the results have ended up muddying the waters somewhat.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Opinium, 15th-22nd December 2021)

Yes 50% (-1)
No 50% (+1)

There are two completely different ways of interpreting this.  There's a small (and statistically insignificant) 1% swing to No since the last poll conducted by Opinium in early September.  However, that September poll was an oasis in the desert - of the twelve online polls conducted by all firms since mid-May, it was the only one that didn't show a No lead.  So it just depends on how you interpret the September poll - was it an outlier caused by sampling variation? If so, the salient point about the new poll is that it's the first online poll since September to show Yes breaking the 50% barrier, and thus could indicate that the Downing Street party scandal has caused a modest pro-Yes swing.

On the other hand, the Yes lead in the September poll could indicate that Opinium have a slightly Yes-friendly methodology compared to other online firms, in which case the new poll could suggest that nothing much has changed.  As ever, we'll have to wait for a couple more polls from a couple more firms to find out which interpretation is the correct one.

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You can catch up with my Scot Goes Popcast interview with iScot editor Ken McDonald HERE (on video) or HERE (audio only). 


  1. Wonder what would happen if the snp leadership actually started to fight for our independence.

    1. Answer - the British media would stick the boot in to Sturgeon.

    2. The imposter strikes again. This character is truly a numpty. I think now the impersonator is the WGD numpty Hamish100, he's out to get me but he won't stop me posting. Hopefully he's had a set of toy soldiers he starts playing with soon. The thickest of the thick WGD numpties is nothing but an infantile saddo.

    3. The posts at 8.40 and 8.50 am are by the imposter who is like Covid a bloody virus that won't go away. Well imposter ( WGD numpty ) you won't stop me posting.

  2. Has the WGD numpty Hamish 100 suddenly grown a pair or did he get a new pair for Xmas.

    Hamish says " A bit of radicalism with the SNP in this upcoming year would be welcomed, as well as needed. Let's have proper Land reform. Are you listening snp/green MSPs? Get off your bum's. "

    Note to Hamish: I say let's have the radical idea of Scottish independence. You know the thing that the SNP was created to achieve instead of sending sex questionnaires to schoolchildren. The SNP carry out land reform - nae chance Hamish - the bunch of neo- liberals in charge are more likely to privatise the NHS. Aye that's right it was Russell who wanted that wasn't it.

    1. Imposter posts at 12.36 pm. This is becoming tiresome.

    2. Independence for ScotlandDecember 28, 2021 at 2:26 PM

      Imposter posts then poster imposts. And every one an inch!

  3. The campaign to get rid of juries for sexual assault/rape cases was revved up soon after Salmond was acquitted in the High Court.

    The question Salmond must be asking himself now is does Sturgeon have more 'friends' who will lie for her.

    Look how easy it was for COPFS to jail Craig Murray. No jury would have convicted Murray. Is it a coincidence that Murray was and is a harsh critic of Sturgeon? No.

  4. A holiday Quiz question.

    What made the SNP MPs the happiest?

    A. When the polls showed yes to independence at 58%. or

    B. The recent poll showing 56 SNP MPs in a 2024 UK general election.