Sunday, December 26, 2021

Boxing Day poll shows Scottish Tories on course for a 1997-style total wipeout at Westminster

Bizarrely, given that it's currently either Christmas Day or Boxing Day (depending on your point of view on the significance of midnight), there's a poll out.  It's in the Sunday Mail, and so far all I know is what's contained on the front page of the paper, which is very little.  No indication of which polling company was used (although I suspect it might have been Survation, because the Sunday Mail have used them before), and there's no sign of the full voting intention numbers.  The only thing that's revealed is that the Scottish Tories are projected to be on course for a 1997-style total wipeout at Westminster, which is suggested to be as a result of the fallout from the Downing Street party scandal.  Hopefully there might be independence numbers in the poll, because I'd like to know if the scandal has had any effect on those.  But the Tory vote share must be low by recent standards, because a seats projection of zero is a long way from the norm.

I'll update this post with the poll results as and when they emerge.

UPDATE: It's turned out to be an Opinium poll, not Survation.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Opinium / Sunday Mail, 15th-22nd December 2021):

SNP 48% (-3)
Labour 22% (+5)
Conservatives 17% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+2)

The percentage changes are measured from the last Opinium poll, which was commissioned by Sky News in September.

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): SNP 56 (+8), Liberal Democrats 2 (-2), Labour 1 (-), Conservatives 0 (-6)

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Neale Hanvey, the Alba Party MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, has an extended opinion piece in Lesbian and Gay News about the three recent opinion polls on GRA reform - namely the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll from October, the Murray Blackburn Mackenzie / Survation poll from November, and the very recent For Women Scotland / Panelbase poll, all of which showed overwhelming public opposition to legally-recognised gender self-identification.  You can read Neale's piece HERE.

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You can catch up with my Scot Goes Popcast interview with iScot editor Ken McDonald HERE (on video) or HERE (audio only). 


  1. Good reporting JK. My take is that if Labour retake second place, the SNP will have to up their game a little. A less toxic alternative than the Tories is not good news for them. Their soft vote has somewhere to go.

    That said, the SNP having to up their game is not a bad thing for Scotland or for them. They've become lazy and self-absorbed. Let's hope they take this poll as an early warning that their continued victories have to be earned.

  2. Which is taken as an overwhelming vote of confidence in nicola murrell and gets us nowhere.


    According to the WGD numpties and Kavanagh we are supposed to be independent by then.

    1. James, the imposter impersonating me at 2.53pm really is a tiresome prick - even at Xmas, what a sad sad person.

    2. This tiresome prick who only has the mental capacity like a silly infant to repeat my words is clearly a numpty from WGD. Sorry ya numpty you won't stop me posting.

      Away back to your home amongst the simple minded on WGD. You truly are a saddo.

    3. Independence for ScotlandDecember 26, 2021 at 7:40 PM

      Please note that both of the above comments were posted by charlatans. I am the real Independence for Scotland.

  4. The thickest of the thick WGD numpties Hamish 100 seems to think SGP is like reading the Mail. Of course being a thicko he cannot even make it clear if he means the Sunday Mail or the Mail on Sunday.

    " Scot goes pop, provides an article to an anti- SNP, anti - FM rant . You could be forgiven you are reading the Mail."

    Unlike Hamish I do not read either publication but some of his fellow WGD numpties do like to look at GB news.

    Sad people these numpties.

    1. Which of the blogposts is supposed to be like reading the Mail? I'm starting to worry about poor Hamish.

    2. I have no idea what he is referring to - he is a numpty after all.

  5. If you're wondering how serious the SNP is about independence, the newspaper which the party had its crusty old duffers delivering (funny how you never see the youth footslogging round the doors!)should give an idea: it was dismal, uninspiring and vacuous.
    If that is what the SNP expects will rouse the people, lead us to the barricades and proclaim an independent Republic, this empty rubbish isn't going to do it - and I write this as an SNP member of many years' standing.