SCOT GOES POP / PANELBASE POLL: Exclusive insight into how lower preference votes will transfer at the local elections in May, and how the pro-independence camp is needlessly leaving votes on the park - large numbers of 'tribal' SNP voters not planning to rank other Yes parties

The Scottish local elections are just six months away, and will help shape the media narrative of whether there is momentum towards an independence referendum (or towards some sort of alternative democratic event to achieve an independence mandate), or whether the independence movement is on the back foot, just as it appeared to be after the last local elections in 2017 - when the SNP comfortably topped the poll but sharply underperformed expectations.

I've already released the headline voting intentions for the local elections from the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll - which to the best of my knowledge is the first such set of numbers from any opinion poll in this electoral cycle.  Here's a reminder of the results: SNP 45%, Conservatives 22%, Labour 21%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 4%, Alba 2%.  Nothing too surprising in there, although there must be a question mark as to whether the SNP will really achieve what would be by far an all-time record high, given their tendency to fall short of opinion poll figures in local elections.

But of course local elections in Scotland are conducted by STV, which means voters do not just put an 'X' beside one candidate, but instead rank the candidates in order of preference - and, crucially, they can rank as many or as few candidates as they like.  Because a lot of people don't really understand how the system works, there's a danger that many independence supporters will fail to optimise the power of their votes - for example, they might just give their first and second preferences to the two SNP candidates in their ward, and not rank anyone else, when in fact if they want to help the cause of independence they should be ranking every single pro-independence party and candidate.  That's something they can do as a "free hit", because it will not affect the chances of the SNP candidates being elected in any way whatsoever.

To get an insight into how many voters are planning to rank multiple parties, the poll asked an additional voting intention question for the local elections...

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (a representative sample of 1001 over-16s in Scotland was interviewed by Panelbase between 20th and 26th October 2021)

At the Scottish local elections next May, voters will rank candidates in order of preference, and will be able to rank as many or as few candidates as they wish.  Which of the following parties do you think you will include in your ranking when you vote in the local elections? (Please select all that apply.)

SNP 49%

Labour 35%

Conservatives 29%

Greens 23%

Liberal Democrats 21%

Alba 6%

Now before anyone's head starts spinning, this is one question where the percentages are very much supposed to add up to more than 100!  In fact it's just a pity they don't add up to a lot more than they do, because the pro-indy camp are needlessly leaving a lot of votes on the park.  Roughly half the population are independence supporters, and yet only 23% of voters will rank the pro-indy Greens, and just 6% will rank the pro-indy Alba party.  The task for us all - and this includes SNP supporters - is to boost those numbers dramatically between now and polling day.  All Yes parties should be urging their voters to give lower preferences to other Yes parties - there really is nothing to lose and everything to gain.

That said, the Greens will obviously be a lot happier with these numbers than Alba.  They give a very different impression from the first preference results, which had the two parties very close together. At first glance, I thought the reason for the Greens' more "transfer-friendly" status might be that they can attract unionist transfers in a way that Alba can't.  But although that's certainly the case, it's not the explanation - of people who would currently vote No, four times as many plan to give a ranking to the Greens (8%) than will do so for Alba (2%), and practically the same is true for people who would currently vote Yes (37% will rank the Greens, 10% will rank Alba).  Now, it goes without saying that the trendies will claim in knee-jerk fashion that this is because voters are rejecting Alba's alleged "bigotry" - but (spoiler alert) there's another result yet to come from the poll that casts severe doubt on that interpretation.  Much more likely is that Alba are struggling from not being as well known as the Greens, and perhaps also from not having the official SNP seal of approval that's been given to the Greens by means of the de facto coalition agreement.

The numbers are naturally pretty similar among people who voted SNP in the 2019 general election - 35% will give a ranking to the Greens, and 10% will give a ranking to Alba.

There's another way of looking at this, though, which is that the SNP are actually no more transfer-friendly than Alba are.  The percentage of people who will give a ranking to the SNP and Alba is 4% higher than each party's share of the first preference vote.  That's because the SNP totally dominate the first preferences of Yessers, but are "electoral asbestos" to unionist voters (to coin a phrase).  Only 12% of current No voters will give a ranking to the SNP - not much higher than the Greens' 8%.  The party that attracts the most 'cross-voting' is, depressingly, Labour - who will be ranked by 21% of current Yes voters, enough to push them comfortably into second place in terms of how many voters will give them some sort of ranking.  Even after all this time, it seems that old loyalties and affections in the former Labour heartlands die hard, meaning that Labour could cling on to a number of council seats that in some cases should have been winnable for pro-indy parties with a "vote till you boak" approach.  But Alba may draw some satisfaction from the fact that the 10% of SNP voters from 2019 who will give a ranking to Alba is at least in the same ball-park as Labour's equivalent figure of 15%.

How transfer-friendly a party is may also be a proxy for its maximum potential vote in non-preferential elections, because it reflects the number of people who find a party acceptable.  On that front, the news is good for both the Greens and Lib Dems, both of whom do vastly better than their first preference vote and find themselves breathing the same air as Labour and the Tories.  Bafflingly, years of extremist rhetoric doesn't yet seem to have totally destroyed the Lib Dems' reputation for reasonableness and moderation - 9% of both SNP and Yes voters still intend to give them a ranking.

The scale of the challenge for Alba if they are to dramatically increase their potential pool of voters is clear - although I suspect they'll prove to be much more transfer-friendly in wards where a seat is actually winnable for them, in other words where they have an incumbent councillor with a strong personal vote.

FUNDRAISING FOR POLLS: As I've mentioned a few times, the crowdfunding for this current poll didn't reach the required amount, and I'm having to cover the shortfall with my own money. So to be able to run any further Scot Goes Pop polling, on independence or on any other subject, we're going to have reach the £6500 target figure in the new fundraiser, or at least come very close to it.  So far we're just over the halfway mark, which is a fantastic start, and a million thanks to everyone who has donated over the last couple of weeks.  However, there have been potentially ominous signs of the donation rate slowing in recent days, so please bear with me as I continue to promote the fundraiser heavily - there's simply no point in leaving the job half done.  It's really important that we as the pro-independence movement crowdfund our own polling from time to time, because there's no other way of ensuring that the questions we want to be asked are actually asked.  The grim alternative is that all polls will be commissioned by anti-independence clients, with the inevitable slant in the way the questions are posed.  (That was exactly the problem we faced during the long indyref campaign, with very few exceptions.)

One issue that always comes up when I crowdfund, but has come up even more this time than usual, is that some people are slightly allergic to donating via a fundraising platform like GoFundMe - they would prefer a more direct payment option.  I've received a few emails from people saying "I would have donated if I could pay you without going through a middle man".  When I launched the fundraiser, I did actually give my Paypal details as a direct payment method, but I'm happy to do so once again.

Paypal email address:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Paypal is actually by far the most convenient option, both for me and for those making donations, because the money is transferred immediately and without any fuss. A number of people have already chosen to donate that way.  All you need to do is make sure the above email address is entered accurately, and when you're asked if you wish to attach a note just put "poll" or "fundraiser" so I can easily earmark the funds and add them to the running total.  (But don't worry if you don't do the latter bit - I hardly ever receive money via Paypal for any other reason, so it'll be pretty obvious what it's for!)  

However, some people have an allergy to Paypal as well as to fundraising sites, and have urged me to provide my bank details so they can donate by direct bank transfer instead.  If you'd really prefer to donate that way, please contact me by email. My contact email address is different from my Paypal address, and can be found in the sidebar of the desktop version of this blog, or on my Twitter profile.

And of course there's still the option of donating via the GoFundMe fundraiser page itself, which can be found HERE.

I know times are really tough at the moment, but thousands of people read Scot Goes Pop every week, and if just 10% of them were to donate just £10 each, we'd reach the target straight away.  As expensive as polls are, I do think the five Scot Goes Pop polls run so far have provided excellent value for money - for example by repeatedly demonstrating that there is substantial public support for a 'Plan B' option if a Section 30 order continues to be refused, and by showing that voters think Brexit makes the case for revisiting the issue of independence.  Of course some people are unable to donate for very good reasons, but one really important thing you can do is to spread the word on social media, and among your friends and family.

Thank you all once again for your amazing continued support.