Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Some predictions...

The anti-independence propaganda outfit Scotland in Union have helpfully warned us to be on the lookout for an opinion poll tomorrow.  I will now proceed to make a series of predictions about this poll.  

1) This poll will be a Survation poll commissioned by Scotland in Union themselves.

2) In common with their previous Survation polls, it will not ask about independence, but will instead pose the question 'Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom?', without making clear whether we'd be 'leaving' to become part of another state, to become a crown dependency like Jersey, to become a freely associated state like the Cook Islands, or to become an independent country.  The question also deliberately sows confusion because the word 'leave' is associated with Brexit, and because 'leaving the United Kingdom' can be misinterpreted as abolishing the monarchy.

3) As always in these polls, the 'Leave' vote will be markedly lower than the Yes vote in genuine independence polls.

4) Scotland in Union will, as ever, put out a press release misrepresenting the poll as an independence poll, and falsely claiming that it shows a drop in the "Yes vote".

5) The mainstream media will, as ever, disgrace themselves by "reporting the poll" with articles that are nothing more than very lightly rewritten versions of the Scotland in Union press release, with a reaction from Keith Brown tacked on at the end for appearances' sake.

Judge how astoundingly accurate (or otherwise) my predictions turn out to be tomorrow!

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Scot Goes Popcast: You can watch the full videos of my recent interviews with Yvonne Ridley and William Duguid HERE and HERE


  1. We await with interest the news on how accurate your predictions are.

    In the meantime what do the Holy Grail of Indyref2 and John (Redactor Man) Swinney's Financial Prospectus for Scottish independence have in common? Also will Swinney get out his Redactor pen and use it on his prospectus?

    1. So what do Indyref2 and John(Redactor Man) Swinney's Financial Prospectus for Scottish Independence have in common?

      Answer - no date.

      As is the way with the SNP under Sturgeon if an election or a conference is coming up they throw a few carrots in the direction of the donkeys to keep them believing.

      SNP members read Iain Lawsons blog Yours for Scotland to see how Sturgeon is eliminating internal democracy in the SNP by sidelining members and passing power to her gang. Classic moves by authoritarian despots.

  2. And that's a tick for everything, except that it was Panelbase. Everything else though, precisely accurate!

  3. There's a 'report' in Herald and it looks like you are correct on all counts, James

  4. The use of different questions by the polling companies does highlight a group of voters who would vote yes to independence, but wish to remain within the UK, who may otherwise remain unidentified.

    This seems to indicate a degree of cognitive dissonance amongst this group, which should warrant further investigation, such as focus groups, additional polling etc to understand this group and their attitudes and opinions.

    This group of voters may well be the ones who determine the outcome of any future referendum.