Friday, May 14, 2021

The reason for suspecting a Scottish poll conducted right now might show a pro-independence majority

The latest Britain-wide YouGov poll makes grim reading for Labour, and spectacularly gives the lie to the notion that a lurch to the right was ever going to be a magic solution to the party's problems.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 11th-12th May):

Conservatives 45% (+2)
Labour 30% (-3)
Greens 8% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-)
SNP 5% (-)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

There's no mystery about why the Conservative lead has grown still further - this is the classic snowball/momentum effect that often occurs immediately after a party performs strongly at an election.  It's for exactly the same reason that I suspect a Scottish opinion poll conducted right now would possibly show a boost for both the SNP and Yes.  But will we ever find out?  A mainstream media worth its salt would be commissioning a poll, but after the SNP landslide at the UK general election in 2019 it inexplicably took four months for any newspaper to do that (the drought had already been broken a few weeks before then, but only due to non-traditional clients commissioning polls, and YouGov conducting a poll off its own bat).  

By the way, if you think things are bad for Labour at UK level, wait until you see YouGov's Scottish subsample: SNP 50%, Conservatives 26%, Labour 13%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 2%, Reform UK 1%.  Labour centrists convinced themselves that they'd made progress by going backwards at the Holyrood election, but it looks like the public themselves haven't got that convoluted memo.

Is it good or bad for the independence movement that the Tories are so dominant in England?  The obvious plus point is that it makes it easier to argue that the only rescue from the Tories is to take matters into our own hands - UK Labour are not coming to save us.  But as Lesley Riddoch pointed out the other day, a large Tory lead may tempt Boris Johnson into an early general election in 2023, which wouldn't be so optimal.  It's in all our interests for any referendum or plebiscitary election to take place before the next UK election.  The other thought that occurs to me is that Labour are actually getting into the sort of territory where it's not totally unimaginable they might change leader before the general election - and if that happens all bets are off.  I've always said that if Labour had any sense they'd install Clive Lewis as leader - but then, as we all know, Labour have no sense.  

Stephen Paton, John Nicolson, Stewart McDonald and others were salivating a few days ago at the thought of being able to dance on the Alba Party's grave - but I'm afraid they're going to be disappointed for at least another year.  Alex Salmond has released a video this afternoon making abundantly clear that Alba will be contesting next May's local elections, and as a result I would suggest it's now virtually inconceivable that the party will fold before then.  He remains the leader (or technically the acting leader) of a party with two members of parliament at Westminster and well over ten local councillors.  

If there's another poor result in the local elections, I can imagine that the party's future might be reviewed again at that point - but it's up to all of us who value Alba's contribution to ensure that there's a good result instead.

On the subject of the three SNP MSPs who are said to have been ready to defect to Alba if Alex Salmond was elected as an MSP, it's been suggested that they have no leverage now that the SNP have been returned with such a commanding win.  But that isn't true, and the reason is the parliamentary arithmetic.  Nicola Sturgeon has a safety-net due to the Greens, but she will not have Green support on every single vote by any means.  So losing three or more seats will not be cost-free for her - regardless of whether that happens as a result of direct defections to Alba, or due to MSPs simply resigning the whip and sitting as independents.

13 comments:

  1. I'm very proud to see the good folks of Glasgow making a stand against the English Brownshirts and their dawn raids on Scottish homes.

    These raids and the forced imprisonment of EU citizens simply coming for a job interviews is revolting and shows why Scotland needs to 'get out while it still can'.

    Of course if such a country appeals to you more than Scotland, you can always move to Bath.

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  2. Don't see Alba doing well - splitting indy vote is not a winning platform - can't see Alba wining any seats

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    1. Might be an idea to read up on the voting system before making silly comments like that - local elections are conducted by STV which means the vote won't be split as long as people rank all the pro-indy candidates.

      "I can't see them winning any seats" is becoming like a faith-based mantra.

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    2. Having three, previously four, entirely different methods of choosing our representatives is bound to lead to confusion.

      Perhaps you could repost your (updated) material from the last local elections? Even at this early stage, it can only help and certainly won't do any harm.

      Despite your, and others elsewhere, putting in a lot of effort last time, there was a lot of resistance to ranking the Unionist parties.

      Vote 'til ye boak!

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  3. When you consider the near hysteria in the run up and after the result of the Hartlepool By election contrast that with the coverage of the Airdrie and Shotts one further proof if needed of Scotland's place in the union.

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  4. Have you thought about commissioning one yourself? Maybe see if other indy media like Broadcasting Scotland or Indy Live might fancy chipping in to get the story first? If we don't like the MSM, we should really try to bring those kind of organisations together to do the MSM's job for them.

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    1. I've been thinking about this, but I would have to fundraise, and I've done an awful lot of fundraisers for polls recently very close together. I'm worried about the danger of going to the well once too often. I'll keep the option open, but I'm hoping a newspaper might conduct a poll soon and that would resolve the dilemma.

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  5. Wouldn't an early general election offer an opportunity to win most of the WM seats in Scotland with an SNP manifesto pledging to hold an independence referendum, effectively 'ramming the point home' to the Tories if the SNP win big? Johnson would lose manoeuvring room if he was confronted with such an SNP majority, and Sturgeon would gain more leverage, and more worldwide attention like she just has after last week's election result? FPTP benefits the SNP up here in a similar way to the Tories, and I can't help feeling that the real reason why Douglas Ross won't resign his WM seat after getting back into HR is because the Tories don't want to risk a by-election in Moray, in case the SNP take it back, given that they hold the equivalent HR Moray seat. What do you think James?

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    1. I think Westminster elections will always be away fixtures for the SNP and we'd be wise to be wary of them. We had exceptionally good results in 2015 and 2019, but that was swimming against the tide.

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    2. I agree with James. MPs should not be deciding on Scottish independence. It's a matter for Scottish general elections, not UK union elections.

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  6. Elections seem to push down support for independence, maybe because there's a chunk of it that's soft and more aspirational and fades away when people start to think about politics as something with effects on the real world, and become more small-c conservative. When the election has passed I'd expect support to move back up. The challenge I guess is to somehow solidify that soft Yes support, during, or before a referendum campaign.

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  7. Just to let you know Yougov have a poll covering independence out just now. They ask the Yes No question, but also the should leave the UK one.
    Btw, if Nicola needs to secure support it's more likely to be on a whole party basis - ie all the Labour Party rather than just three or four prepared to break ranks.

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    1. I hope that'll be a published poll, but I have a feeling it won't be. "Leave the UK" has the smell of a private poll about it.

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