Friday, May 28, 2021

"It's the blog that everyone's talking about!", no. 5492

Here's a puzzle.  The SNP were, by all accounts, deeply concerned about the arrival of the Alba Party - and they were self-evidently right to be, given the scale of defections from both MPs and councillors.  There was apparently considerable relief when it became clear that Alba were averaging around 2% of the vote, below the level at which they were likely to win any seats.  But wouldn't you think the SNP would then want to finish the job, and ensure they didn't have to worry about Alba anymore?  Instead, every comment uttered about Alba by certain key SNP parliamentarians since the election seems to have been perfectly callibrated to keep the new party going as a potential thorn in the SNP's side.  And if that appears to make no sense, it's because it doesn't.  Hatred of the people involved in Alba has caused the SNP leadership to set aside all strategic good sense.

It would have been perfectly possible to make Alba go away after the election.  New parties that suffer electoral setbacks on their first outing are vulnerable to total collapse, as Change UK demonstrated two years ago.  But Change UK ceased to exist largely because a number of the key players found an alternative home in the Liberal Democrats.  If the SNP wanted a similar exodus from Alba that would eventually lead to the party ceasing to be viable, the way to achieve that would have been to smother Alba with kindness.  They could have said "we have shared values and objectives, your poor result gives us no pleasure, our door remains open to you". Instead the SNP have treated Alba members as scum who have no place in civilised society, let alone the independence movement.  The latest manifestation of that is Pete Wishart's new "blog that everyone's talking about" (sic), which gloats at considerable length about Alba's low vote share and leaves little room for doubt that he viscerally despises Alba members.  To use Ian Davidson's immortal words, the likes of Wishart, Stewart McDonald and Kirsty Blackman want to spend their time "bayonetting the wounded" rather than healing the rift.  That destructive attitude is producing the natural and rational response: "if we have no home in the SNP, then our home is Alba, and we're going to make it work".

The point Alba-haters are missing is this: to try to jump from 2% of the vote to 5% is not really all that ambitious, and that's all Alba really need to do at this stage.  If they could get 5% of the first preference vote in the local elections (or perhaps even 4%), that would be enough to build up some credibility as a serious player as long as they get a few councillors elected as well.  And given that some of their candidates will be incumbents who have had time to build up a personal vote, that's not beyond the bounds of possibility.  With a half-decent local election result, they would then force their way into the conversation about which parties are entitled to TV and radio coverage under Ofcom regulations.  The SNP would constantly have to worry about losing the votes of the most radical independence supporters, in a way they simply haven't in the past.  That's the scenario Wishart's own handiwork could be helping to bring about.

Incidentally, because Wishart lists a series of largely spurious "reasons" for Alba's setback, it's worth pointing out one much better reason that was discussed at length before the election but not so much afterwards - the Electoral Commission's refusal to allow the Alba logo or description to appear on the ballot paper.  A lot of people were struck by how hard it was to find Alba, even though they were close to the top - they really didn't stand out at all.  That's where it might have been an advantage to have a "Ronseal" name like Independence for Scotland - because the name itself would have doubled as the description.  I'm not suggesting that the Electoral Commission's decision swung the balance between winning seats and not winning seats, but I do think it may have reduced Alba's vote share somewhat.

As for Alex Salmond's future, I'm just going to wait and see what he decides - there's no better political tactician than him, and whatever decision he makes will probably be the right one for the party.  I can see the argument that a new leader would remove the 'distraction' of every single BBC interview being an attempt to rerun the trial, but I think there's a strong counterargument as well - the grass doesn't always turn out to be greener on the other side.  Every time Nigel Farage has stepped down as leader of UKIP or the Brexit Party, that's always been followed by a slump, because Farage was not only the party's main electoral asset, he was also the glue that kept the whole outfit together.  Although Alba is a very different party from UKIP, and Alex Salmond is a very different politician from Nigel Farage, the same principle could apply.

That said, Alba are blessed in having two MPs (including a former Justice Secretary) as credible alternative leaders, so it's not impossible that a change at the top could work out - but I hope it's all thought through very carefully before any rash decisions are made.

33 comments:

  1. It's been a while since the SNP have shown any strategic good sense and looks like nothing is going to change any time soon. There seems to be a dearth of strategy in any form these days.

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  2. Away from the internet echo chamber of twitter who really cares? Not the voters it seems. I think Alex might step back a bit. I was pleased when he was found innocent but wished to hadn't got involved with the malcontents. That soured his achievements in the 2007 - 2014 period. Hopefully time will heal for all of us.

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    1. With respect, Marcia, the 5000+ members of Alba care, as do the 45,000 people who voted for the party. At this stage it appears that a healing process will be contingent upon electoral success for Alba, because the SNP have shown no interest in reconciliation.

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    2. People are entitled to have political opinions which differ from the leaders of two or three main parties without being called "discontents", "morons", "bigots" or any other insults. Anything else is anti-democratic and leadership conformist to quite an alarming extent.

      I joined Alex Salmond's SNP, which was a fantastic place to be largely *because* it was a place which encouraged debate, new voices and new ideas. The sense of hope for the future, and a new country doing things in different ways was palpable and what created the near win for Yes (from a 23% start) as well as increasing SNP membership from around 8,000 to 155,000. I left the current SNP before Alba was even a thing because it had become the polar opposite: a place where dissent from the leadership line was not tolerated and could even be dangerous. I'm happy to have Alba if it can - and from the candidates and debates pre-election, I'm sure it can - bring back that spirit the SNP had under Salmond. I don't care if it's a much smaller party: I'm happier, actually, if the changes to the SNP are what happens when a party becomes too big.

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    3. When I joined the SNP more that 5 decades ago the party did not belong to anyone individual. It wasn't Jim Halliday's party or Arthur Donaldson's party nor Willie Wolfe's party. I am not one for putting people on pedestals. Anyone can challenge the party leader for election at the annual conference and change the direction of the party but no-one seems to do so.

      The forecasts for the May election for Alba by some Alba supporters were wildly optimistic and set for disappointment. You don't set up an organisation weeks before an election and expect to succeed. The majority of the population are not that interested in day to day politics. It took me back to some of the SNP branches in the 1960's who thought that by existing they would have election glory. No it doesn't work that way. You have to plug away at it, building an infrastructure. Tweeting about it doesn't do anything. You have go around the doors and build up support. SNP membership has gone up and down over the decades. After the Hamilton by-election in 1967 the membership claimed by the SNP was over 100,000. Nothing new. It will go and down, it is all is determined by the very few that are the party activists.

      Just my tuppence worth.

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    4. What Marcia said. The stereotypical Salmond fan is middle-aged or older, but my impression is that the real old guard, who predate his leadership, are the ones who are interested primarily in independence: it's those who joined since the 90s who have a tendency to invest blind faith in one of these two total fuds.

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    5. Another woman who thinks a man dragged through the courts by a coven directed by the current First Minister should just take it.
      You may be fine with a politician using the police and courts to silence her enemies, but I'm not.

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  3. What Alba and Alex Salmond need to make clear is that they are not going to go away, and if we have to have a UK general election because of SNP backsliding they will stand Alba candidates in every constituency.

    It will split the SNP vote I hear you cry, so what, if we have another UK general election again we have all been sold down the river.

    Is electing Wishart again getting us any nearer to independence?

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    1. If Boris Johnson decides to call a snap WM election (and he is certainly capable of it), then quite a few SNP seats would be in trouble IMO. The likes of Peter Wishart for example, would indy supporters be inspired to go out and vote for him? Heck some may even be angry enough to go out and vote against him. Yer on a shoogly peg, Peter. Just sayin. :)

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    2. Given that Alba didn't split the vote in the recent election (James has shown the SNP didn't lose any seats because of Alba) it doesn't seem a risk for a Westminster election, particularly as Westminster is FPTP which hits votes for small parties on the day. In Scottish elections these have the benefit of PR which reduces 'wasted' (below threshold) votes.

      Scottish Yes MPs are of course not much use for anything other than displacing unionist MPs. Scots are not allowed to be involved in governing the UK [sic England]. That goes for Kenny Macaskill and Neale Haney too. They openly admit this, hence saying they're not going to bother turning up apart from for key votes.

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  4. Is the SNP the party of independence or a vehicle for personal advantage in a tartan,"fable of the bees?" Alba will be in government sooner or later. Fine to Fianna.

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  5. Can't say I've heard anyone mention wisharts blog. Never read it myself.

    I think to an extent certain groups in Alba and the SNP both have their own wee bickering bubbles that the rest of us and the wider public just are not part of.

    The fact that folks call me some sort of 'snp acolyte getting orders from snp Central' shows how detached they are from reality. I am a donating member who votes on candidate selection and that's it. I've never been involved in any party activity beyond that and have never campaigned for them, only Yes.

    Ahead of 2021 I did my best to get people to vote for a yes party, it didn't matter which. I know I for sure got another 3 snp-snp and 1 snp-alba in the form of new scots given the franchise by the snp.

    I've found the best way to win votes for yes is not to promote any party, but just yes.

    Useful advice for both the snp and alba 'we don't like each other' bubbles.

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    1. Propaganda 101.
      Deny a thing exists because you claim not to know of it.

      how much of the stolen £600,000 pays for you to spam pro-Yes weblogs all day?

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  6. Agreed, I don't feel kinship with the SNPy-Sturgeonestazi folk - Salmond's currency is not worth much (but you never know...) - he naively threw in the towel and now Scotland's biggest party is led by a ballsy middle manager with no vision or foresight. I won't join Alba cause they don't use Paypal but I donated to them (worry about their security) - won't give to the SNP till the SNP convinces me their first priority is indy - we'll see

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  7. If the reports from the recent NEC meeting are true ('traitor' members denounced by name and, hilariously, 'banned' after having joined Alba), it just further demonstrates how far down the 'l'etat est moi' route Sturgeon and her fan club have gone. They have spent more time aggressively attacking Alba (and any other yes groups) and their personnel than they have improving the lot of ordinary Scots. Stalinist show trials, endless PR and media posturing, it's all performative politics with next to no substance. And they won't have anybody else coming along daring to challenge the panto they put on for the punters.

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    1. Banned for leaving the cult yet Jacqueline D'eath publicly resigned yet was begged to return by Mrs Murrell and welcomed home in clear breach of the parties own rules.

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  8. They all 'got out of nationalist brexiter England while they still could' (in contrast to those who love it more than Scotland; the S. England Tory shires, including Somerset, in particular).

    Data suggests 4% of the young skilled working population (2% of the total) has left the UK due to brexit, and couldn't get back in again even if they wanted to (which they don't) because they'd be arrested, detained in concentration camps, then deported.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57285428

    Hospitality 'struggling to fill thousands of jobs'

    UK Hospitality said there was currently a shortfall of about 188,000 workers, with the shortage of front-of-house staff and chefs being "particularly acute".

    Seriously folks, we are now going to really see the effects of brexit. Full in the face. Shit flying lefy right and centre from the fan impact. The pandemic has hidden it. It's wakey wakey time.

    If you want your 'brexit effect' on Yes support, you are now going to get it big style.

    It's just so crap that it was all predicted by sensible heads. But then Scotland doesn't have its own media so has been treated like mushrooms by the brits.

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  9. I feel really torn. I have voted SNP all my life and I feel that we are closer to independence than we have ever been, yet I no longer feel that the SNP are my natural home, and that this change has occurred on Nicola Sturgeon's watch. Whether that's due to entryism, her leadership, or whatever is beside the point- it's on her watch and she's done bugger all about it so I hold her ultimately responsible.

    As for Alba, I am attracted by their more radical outlook, but I am a little more circumspect about their overall 'feel'. Are they more 'to the right' than the SNP? More small 'c' conservative? I'm troubled by the SNP's identity politics but equally uncertain about Alba's stance on a range of matters. As for Alex Salmond, yes, he got Alba airtime, but I think he's an albatross around their neck. His past will forever haunt him now, innocent in the eyes of the law or not. More than that, I think he is past his prime. I heard him speak during the campaign and felt he had lost his spark. Lost that special something that made him stand out before. I say that as someone who has met him a few times, spoken to him, and voted for him. Alba would be well advised to move on. If they have the right policies that the people of Scotland want, they'll get the votes.

    The Greens seem closer to my natural home now. They seem more committed to independence than before, and if that's real then I think it will stand them in good stead in the medium to long term. They are well positioned to garner the votes of the younger generation after independence.

    So, for the first time in my life I find myself with no real political home, and voting tactically for whatever party I feel is best placed to advance independence at each election. I guess things don't always turn out the way you expect, more so now than ever, so my vote's up for grabs and I won't be taken for granted. This time it was SNP/Green and I expect some action from them.

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    1. "Are they more 'to the right' than the SNP?"

      They're clearly to the left of the SNP. This 'social conservatism' jibe is a load of nonsense - the right/left axis is not determined by views on GRA reform.

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    2. I think I was more confused by Salmond's comment about attracting some Daily Mail readers. Any party which attracts Daily Mail readers is unlikely to be the party for me!

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    3. Now that's true bigotry right there.

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  10. So Scots taxpayer funded millionaire royals English Wills 'n' Kate and and their boot licking 'I prefer British (to Scottish)' Broon are workin thegither oan the masterplan tae keep the jock peasants in check.

    The dream's over folks. There'll be wee union jacks fluttering ootside every house in Scotland soon. ;-)

    We are so now in the...

    #lastdaysofRome

    Iref2 may well be as early as spring 2022. Seems the unionists are planning for that.

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    1. There we have it. Exclusive proof that wet pishfart is on drugs.

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    2. I note you don't explain why we are being love bombed if there's zero prospect of an iref.

      English 'Wills n Kate' have been on the BBC Scotland page every day for a week or so now. What's this new found love for the peasants beyond the summer palace walls all about?

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  11. I wonder how well the Jeremy Thorpe Party would have done? He was popular and was found innocent, too.

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    1. A bit of a redundant question given that Jeremy Thorpe actually stood for election when he was about to stand trial and when the allegations against him were well-known. He received 37% of the vote.

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    2. My uncle Tom called Jeremy Thorpe Jeremy Throop. It was hilarious.
      It's like that question, What's the difference between Jeremy Throop and the Eiffel Tower?
      I'll answer it next week.

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  12. Just looking at the 2017 council election results.

    These were of course nothing to do with independence and thank god the SNP + Greens didn't try to make them so.

    Openly Yes parties got about 36%. Even if you remove the 10.4% for independents and normalise, again SNP + Green is still only 41% of the new total.

    Of course the unionists will try to make next year's council elections all about independence, as they do in every election so they can hopefully shout 'That's the iref mandate overturned!' if Yes parties get like 99% of the vote.

    So, any Yes party stupid enough to make the 2022 council elections about independence (rather than local schools, roads, amenities etc) does not deserve a vote from indy supporters.

    I will of course only vote for a Scottish party that supports normality (indy) for Scotland. Alba could even be on the cards for me in a way they were not in the Holyrood election (I'm in the SoS and liked all my SNP candidates).

    But any party making it about independence will not get vote from me. That's just trying to undermine our current Yes majority as we can be pretty sure Scots will not give Yes parties a majority as noted. If simply because of a typical high independents share.

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    1. So you won't be voting SNP then as the only reason for voting for them in local government is to promote independence. They don't do any of the actual work better than the other parties.
      We an SNP coalition in Edinburgh and they're still ramming through the tram and bankrupting the city in the process.
      They've done absolutely nothing to promote or facilitate Edinburgh as an actual capital city. It has been the reverse.
      They're opening new gender neutral toilets though. Huzzah!
      Tell me why I should waste my vote on a fake Yes party when they are useless corrupt troughers.

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    2. I'm not obsessed with loos like you are. I've used mix sex loos all my life without problems. They are common in smaller cafes/restaurants. All disabled loos are like this too. Also loos with baby changing tables. Have you never used one at a shopping centre or supermarket? If these types of bogs freak you out I suggest you need serious help.

      I also advise you not to stop for a pee in lauder. The public loos are all mixed sex and have been for years. 5 or six individual loos I recall. Same in the flat cat cafe across the road that's popular with Conservative pensioners. Only a single mixed sex loo.

      I am scottish so only vote for independent Scottish parties. That gives me a choice of 3 main ones, assuming alba will stand. Services were definitely better here in the borders under the snp previously. My guess is that English parties are just never going to have scotlands interests at heart. I mean if Scottish councils are well run, scots might think they don't need England/the UK to run their country. So unionists must try to make a mess of things to promote scotland as a failure.

      I can see you voting for that, just like wings and his support for the right wing English libs.

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  13. Very much so. Global pandemic management is an all but fully reserved matter. Everything from borders, ports & aviation to welfare (furlough), borrowing, and vaccine licensing are controlled by London. Scotland didn't even have lockdown powers in Wave 1.

    It's only English armchair expert unionists like Wings that compare Scotland to independent island nations like New Zealand to attack the minority SNP Scottish devolved government for not performing as well.

    By contrast, real experts like Professor Sridhar understand the reality.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19338439.devi-sridhar-scotlands-hands-tied-tories-covid-response/

    Devi Sridhar: Scotland’s hands ‘tied’ by Tories in Covid response

    SCOTLAND’S response to the pandemic has been “constrained” by being bound to the rest of the UK, according to health experts.

    Reacting to suggestions that Scotland was no better than England in its handling of the virus, Professor Devi Sridhar, of the University of Edinburgh, said the Scottish Government’s “hands were tied” because of its lack of independence...

    ...Reicher also contrasted the leadership of Sturgeon with the UK Tory Government, pointing out that Cummings had said the Cobra emergency meetings had gone better when Prime Minister Boris Johnson was absent.

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    1. Funny how the Welsh could close their borders, Cumbria police closed theirs, but we couldn't close ours.
      Stop lying. Health is entirely under the control of Mrs Murrell.
      The Scottish Government had absolute power to control the movement of people into Scotland for health reasons. they chose not to use them.

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    2. JK. Why did you not respond to Jacqueline D'eath and the other cretins last night with the fairly unambiguous statement from Gordon Jackson QC that he never called Alex Salmond a sex pest.
      It was widely reported. Maybe not as widely as the fraudulent claim based on the edited illegal spycamera footage, but from the horses own mouth.

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