There have been more questions for me in the last couple of threads, although I deleted one of them because it was in a comment full of potentially defamatory allegations about Alba politicians.
If the Alba Party are below 5% support in the polls, would you tell people that voting Alba is a wasted vote, and that they should go back to the SNP?
That might make sense if Alba are on zero or 1% in the polls, but if - in a more plausible scenario - they're on 3% or 4%, a more viable course of action would be to prevent those votes being wasted by building on them and pushing the party to the 5-6% they would need to take seats across Scotland. The people who have already moved over to Alba are quite passionate, so in most cases asking them to go back to the SNP would not be realistic unless Alba literally had no chance whatever of winning seats.
Would you still support Alba if Stuart Campbell was a candidate?
Yes, I would, not because I'm a huge fan of the guy, but because my objective is independence and I think the Alba party is the best vehicle on the list to achieve that. I presume he would take the same view if I was a candidate. (Spoiler alert: don't hold your breath.) In practice I don't see how he can stand, because he's indicating that he'd like people to vote for Anas Sarwar against Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside, which is contrary to Alba's position that everyone should vote SNP on the constituency ballot.
Aren't the MP defectors to the Alba Party causing harm?
This is a really tricky one, because normally if you support a party that's just been set up, you'd welcome absolutely every defection to it. But if the Alba experiment is going to work, there has to be limitations on it. The new party can never stand on the Holyrood constituency ballot, and it can never stand for Westminster unless there is some sort of electoral pact with the SNP, which seems unlikely. So MPs who defect have to be sure that they won't want to stand again for Westminster in 2024 if Scotland isn't independent by then. The local elections next year are a borderline case - although those will take place under proportional representation, the de facto threshold for getting elected is much higher than on the Holyrood list. So vote-splitting would potentially be more of a problem, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
Incidentally, I've noticed a peculiar tendency among Alba's critics to read words and sentences as if they say the polar opposite of what they actually say. So, for example, in my last post I wrote that I had no intention of defending Alex Arthur's comments about Romanians and the vaccine, and for some reason people seemed to think I meant "I wholeheartedly support Alex Arthur's comments about Romanians and the vaccine".
POLL: Not anything scientific, just curiosity to see how my followers are voting on the list.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 30, 2021
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That might make sense if Alba are on zero or 1% in the polls, but if - in a more plausible scenario - they're on 3% or 4%, a more viable course of action would be to prevent those votes being wasted by building on them and pushing the party to the 5-6% they would need to take seats across Scotland.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure 3-4% is more plausible. I'd say as plausible as 1-2%.
Anyway, when are you releasing the tactical voting wheel james? I assume this will have accurate regional data; folks need to base their gambling bets on this. Alba might be 5% in the NE but 0.5% in the South of Scotland. National totals are a bad indicator unless this starts to solidly over 5%.
I still think people should use their list vote for the party they want in government. That's how AMS PR is supposed to work. You then use your second constituency vote for a preferred candidate, maybe opting for a second favourite if you think your favour hasn't a hope.
Alba don't want to be in government, so they're ruled out for me on the list.
Anyway, when are you releasing the tactical voting wheel james?"
DeleteI sometimes wonder if you listen to a word I say. I don't believe in tactical voting on the list and I've made that clear umpteen times. People should vote for ther first choice party on the list, irrespective of region.
Fair enough. But you seemed to be suggesting people don't vote based on heart, but tactically from what I've quoted. What with the %'s and 'courses of action'.
DeleteIf someone is passionate about Alba, it should matter jack shit what they are polling; they should vote for them with their PR list no matter what, even if, like they say, they have no interest in the hard work / responsibility of governing. There are greens in the SoS doing this and it's right if they are deep down green. Tactically, they are better going for SNP though, if that was their main aim.
The only time folk might consider polling data in decisions would be for tactical voting.
'Should not matter'
DeleteIndy isn't about personalities. I question the motives of those who do think it is about flawed individuals. None of us are perfect and certainly not Sturgeon or Salmond.
ReplyDeleteThere is no point in hiding the fact that if then last poll is anywhere close to right then the SNP is sweeping up the Constituencies and thus voting for the SNP on the List in most regions is a wasted vote however you look at it.
The Real Harm being done to the Indy vote is the wasting of votes on the List vote and not by defections to the Alba Party from the SNP. That harm is being exacerbated by Sturgeons continued sniping and she should stop it. But that is my view and we all have different views.
I think the harm done was Salmond falsely accusing Sturgeon of breaking the ministerial code with the aim of forcing her out of office ahead of his new party launch.
DeleteThe biggest victim will be Alba I suspect. But it will be hard to know what could have been.
He didn't falsely accuse her, he simply gave his interpretation that her actions constituted a breach of the code. He never called for her to resign.
DeleteSalmond was actually calling for Sturgeon to be FM the last time I looked and to vote SNP in the Constituencies. He opens the door but she slams it shut. Salmond was putting Nation before Party when he said she should be FM but Sturgeon hasn't been putting Scotland first with her response.
DeleteFor the past few months, Wings over Scotland has been doing Salmond's bidding trying to undermine support in the FM. All those documents leaked by Salmond via WoS in the hope, by election time, the FM would be damaged goods and along he comes to the rescue. It didn't go to plan. I would find it difficult to support Alba if someone from Alba is telling voters not to vote SNP in any of the constituencies.
DeleteDavid Martin
Yes, after Hamilton totally exonerated her, there's not much else he could do in response.
DeleteScottish Skier: With apologies for deleting your comment, but it was very, very borderline in terms of legal issues. OK, you were attributing that very serious allegation to Nicola Sturgeon - but she didn't actually make it.
DeleteThat's ok james, it was not clear. Sorry.
DeleteNo Sturgeon of course did not make such an accusation. That was my point. I did realise afterward that it could be read wrong.
My point was that she did not say Salmond 'was guilty in her opinion' (of being a criminal) but he did say she was guilty in his (of breaking the ministerial code).
The latter only really occurred recently. It seems to me at the time Alba was being formulated and Sturgeon was under serious pressure from the committee. Now that Hamilton stated the obvious, there's backtracking...
I could not understand why Salmond was switching his attacks from Evans to Sturgeon and the SNP. Then along came Alba :-(
I don't think Nicola needs Salmonds help to be FM IainM. She has been doing very well without him and would be doing even better without him around.
DeleteYet here he is.
Mr Troll, comments deleted, and as you know perfectly well I covered the Express poll when it was released.
ReplyDeleteDaily Record holding a "Who won the leaders debate" "poll"....
ReplyDeleteAlex Salmond even though he wasn't there.
DeleteI have heard that it is going to be some 4 days to the first poll with the Alba Party on it? Have you heard anything James?
ReplyDeleteIainM, It seems to me Ye've hung yer jaiket on a shoogly peg.
DeleteMost new parties overpromise but underdeliver.
My local ALBA candidate, after walking out on his constituents now wants our votes to get himself elected to the Scottish Parliament.
If, BIG IF he gets there, what will he be aiming to achieve?
A speeding up of the referendum process maybe?
Well for me as an SNP member I don't need Salmond to do that.
The whole membership will expect an SNP FM to deliver without any shrill voices from outside.
Where is our referendum then? Drumming my fingers raw waiting for it the last 6 years. Seems an established Party under Sturgeon couldn't keep its promise. She failed to deliver!!
DeleteThe SNP also failed to deliver it seems. It seems that a large chunk of the membership have given up on Sturgeon delivering ever. Besides I was asking James a legit question.
You were hoping for a referendum in 2015? 2016? 2017? Just magically the view of Scots on such a deep, fundamental existential question would have radically changed for no apparent reason? The arguments remained all but identical and even the br/scexit vote didn't split on Yes/No lines.
DeleteIndependence isn't just for Christmas. The good news is that when people move behind it, normally after flirting a bit here and there (like just after the brexit vote), they then firmly so because of what it means.
During the debate the elephant in the room for me was anyone really explaining why Scotland still pays a huge whack of our taxes and revenues to the EnglandUK treasury, completely out of Scottish democratic control.
ReplyDeleteWell done the man who called out the unionist parties as London-rule imperialists.
Let's keep it respectful was Sarah Smith's reply!
I didn't see the leaders debate last night and the only vibe I can get on how it went was that Murray Ross didn't have a good baptism of fire.
ReplyDeleteOne or two Unionists seem to be chewing their teeth over whether to back Labour instead. Boris may regret punting the wee tank commander up to the Lords. Will be interesting to see how all this and the inclusion of Alba plays out in the polls...assuming the polls have been nimble enough to include Alba.
I saw it - not much substantial for anyone, such is the entrenchment on the constitutional issue. The audience’s questions & points were good though.
DeleteI think the big winners were Anas Sarwar & Lorna Slater. Willie Rennie always speaks well too.
Nicola Sturgeon was solid, but Douglas Ross had a bad night in my opinion.
I look forward to indy as the constitution will cease to be an issue. Been an issue since 1707 and the angry country-wide protests that immediately followed the union. Never not been an issue in Scotland.
DeleteLike Brexit has ceased to be an issue?
DeleteFind a middle ground. Find a third way. Unite the divided nation.
UK's sovereign state status is exactly as it was as part of the EU. It's not comparable.
DeleteScotland a fully independent country in the UK could be an option for unionists to propose. That's essentially devo max but powers devolved from Scotland to the UK as per the EU set-up.
Problem is Scots support the EU more than they do the UK because the UK union is small, insular and parochial.
Mind, I'm Scottish & Irish with a French wife. I don't understand the desire not to be a regular country, sitting alongside others as an equal in unions etc.
DeleteInherently, I'm a unionist (EU/EEA), but unions require equal status for members. A proper union requires independence otherwise there will always be division.
Ireland gets on a while lot better with England now it's independent, as do all the other countries who left the empire.
DeleteIt's the bits that are not independent that are divided, like N. Ireland, Scotland and even increasingly Wales.
Interesting points, though I disagree that the UK is insular.
DeleteGiven what you’ve said about equals in Union rather than a unitary UK state, I presume you would be in favour of federalism or confederation within the UK?
As no-one has bothered to define whatever 'supermajority' is being asked for (it's called a qualified majority), they usually start at 60%. They also usually involve a required minimum turnout.
ReplyDeleteThe idea is quite similar to the requirements on the first Scottish devolution vote.
My feeling is that this supermajority/qualified majority will never be defined.
As for Campbell in the line up; it would be the death knell for Alba. Like a verbally abusive more right-wing version of Michael Gove joining up from the shires.
ReplyDeleteIs their anyone who doesn't have a family member or friend he hasn't called a 'woke c**t' yet?
It's a pity Alba isn't led by Dennis Canavan, Margo MacDonald (RIP), Lesley Riddoch... etc. Then I'd be giving it serious consideration.
The consequence of any referendum based on some Alba supermajority is that people would be demanding that a second independence referendum requires a supermajority,.
ReplyDeleteSome will regardless. However, I wouldn't put too much weight on the term. Alex has an over fondness for sound bites and in truth all he is saying is that if Alba take a few list seats off the unionists then the unionist voice in Holyrood is going to be rather weak.
DeleteSupermajority in this instance just means "a lot".
How much is a generation?
DeleteAccording to Harold Wilson a political generation is probably a week :)
DeleteThe audience for last night's debate seemed to have been hand-picked just like Question Time.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/status/1377164328827154443
Oh well, that's the Alba party getting slated by the Record, and the Sun. The Record are seriously going to town on them.
ReplyDeleteApart from any other objections, Alba has done no work at all, gone through no traumas, faced not one of the public over the years. It's a party for the disgruntled.
ReplyDelete..still have not heard a coherent response from Alba or those considering backing them, 'what will Alba actually do when in Holyrood to bring about a referendum faster?' which is both binding and accepted by the international community?
ReplyDeleteI'm not interested in the whole Alba Vs SNP, rhetoric, ' well kent faces' cringe, and super majorities blah blah, I just have this one simple question which EVERYONE so far has avoided answering. If there is a strategy here, great, maybe I will switch my 2nd vote to force a referendum sooner than the 24 months being suggested by the SG. Anyone?
Snap, I've asked this to their vocal members and they call me a concern troll
DeleteYou haven't by any chance blocked people who disagree with you, have you, James? 🤔
ReplyDelete