Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Has Yes stayed in the lead all along? Hanbury polling from February and March shows thumping pro-independence majorities

I normally pride myself on staying on top of all the Scottish polls that are released, but today brought word of another #Matchettgate-style episode, with the Hanbury polling numbers reported by the Sunday Times at the weekend turning out to be wrong - and I was like: "what Hanbury polling numbers reported by the Sunday Times?"  The story must have flown completely under my radar.  What seems to have happened is that Hanbury conducted two waves of polling on independence - the first mostly in February and the second in early March.  The Yes vote dropped by 3% from the first wave to the second, but the drop was originally misreported as being 6%. The issue, of course, is that a 6% drop would probably have been a sign of real changes on the ground, whereas 3% could easily just be caused by random sampling variation.  But the rather more salient point, that the media reporting of the polls seems determined to miss, is that there was a clear Yes majority on both waves.  That's fascinating, because the fieldwork took place during the period when other firms were giving the impression that No had drawn level or edged slightly ahead.  Could it be that the pro-independence majority has remained intact all along?

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Hanbury/Onward)

12th February - 1st March:

Yes 56%
No 44%

5th - 9th March:

Yes 53%
No 47%

I must say I'm extremely hazy about Hanbury's actual status as a pollster.  They're members of the British Polling Council, and yet describe themselves as a "strategic advisory firm".  Even more confusingly, they were listed as the client for a YouGov independence poll around a year ago.  I'm not sure if it's one of those set-ups where they get 'proper' pollsters to do the fieldwork for them but then put their own branding on it.

Needless to say, the "strategic advice" they offer seems, as far as Scottish politics is concerned, to be for unionist clients.  They probably do deserve some sort of industry award for somehow managing to hypnotise the media into thinking that two polls showing thumping Yes majorities are somehow a bad news story for the SNP and the indy movement.  Do a Google search for "Hanbury" and savour the Comical Ali style headlines.

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  1. Including DK:
    9 March
    50% Yes
    43% No

    1 March
    52% Yes
    41% No

  2. As far as I can see, the average never dropped below 51% Yes ex DK. Stalled at that post Sturgeon's appearance. Maybe edging up again a touch now, and that's before all the 'Sturgeon has been completely cleared by independent international observer - unionists have lied to you for the last year about her' headlines. That and 'the committee, police and CPS all conclude there was no Salmond conspiracy'.

    1. I am wondering if the dip was to due to under representation of Yes voting areas such as the West of Scotland in some polls, as suggested by John Robertson.

    2. Maybe. I not also the above survey found:

      Looking only at recall vote (i.e. how people say they voted in 2014, we see the same pattern) 18-24 and 25-34 year-old voters recall a higher Yes vote in 2014 than reality (60% and 71% respectively)

      This 'false recall' is causing Yes to be increasingly down-weighted in polls. Of course 18-24 can't 'falsely recall' how they voted in 2014 because most of them didn't vote; they were just 12-15 years old. They are being given a past vote which wasn't theirs, but that of people 6 years older.

      Likewise, people who are 66 now were 60 and so on, so are being attributed a voted of those older and less Yes than them. Given the close relationship between Yes and generation (not age), this means that Yes voters will be ever more down-weighted as time goes by if 2014 is used in weighting. This is before any 'regret' effects might kick in.

      Certainly, 2014 recall for Yes is too high pretty consistently across polls and this is likely knocking a few % of Yes. It probably explains why MORI get higher yes as they don't weight to 2014.

    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Can anyone tell me why John Curtis, I presume a reliable source, has the Independence polls as neck and neck? That’s twice I’ve heard him state that, in recent days.

    1. I guess that any support that is just over 50% will always be described as 'neck and neck' cos others who want to (so, er, most of our media) will always assume the balance will be 'no'

    2. I guess that any support that is just over 50% will always be described as 'neck and neck' cos others who want to (so, er, most of our media) will always assume the balance will be 'no'

  4. In 2014, 89% of voters who said they were ‘Scottish not British’ voted Yes, as did 60% of those who said they were ‘More Scottish than British’. Meanwhile, 90% of those who said they were ‘British not
    Scottish’ voted No.

    But according to the Englishman, the Scots are a 'gutless' people.


  5. Sturgeon wins the confidence of parliament by 68% to 32%, with the support of more than 2 parties in the chamber.

    A massive vote of confidence.

    No confidence vote in Nicola Sturgeon defeated

    A vote of no confidence in First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been defeated by 65 votes to 31, with 27 abstentions.

    1. "More than 2 parties" is an odd way to put it. So how many was it? I know Labour abstained. Did the Lib Dems actually vote against?

    2. Sorry I meant two parties / more than one, ie consensus. How did Wightman vote? That would make it 3 technically.

  6. https://www.ukonward.com/stateoftheunion/

    35% of Scottish voters, and 58% of Yes voters, say that if the SNP wins a majority and the UK Government refuses a referendum outright they would be more likely to vote Yes, compared to 19% and 8% respectively who say they would be less likely. The implication is that support for independence may harden considerably if the UK Government decides to “just say no”.

    1. The survey asked a large number of biased questions most prominently regarding the UK common travel area.

  7. This article gives me real hope and enthusiasm. I knew the bogus express new articles were bullshxt lying mofos claiming support for indyref has dropped and is the 3rd consecutive poll to record a dip. The media deliberately and clearly down weighted their inacurate voting and didn't take into account the wider populous in the west of Scotland. As far as my research goes i have seen nothing but spikes in support for indyref and the polls have not dropped below 51% support for yes. Express news are corrupt and biased, media desperately trying to stir falsehood in a frantic and desperate bid to remove Ms Sturgeon. Just like the falshood they spread about Mr Corbyn, successfully deceiving and manipulating the public.

  8. From the Wingsmeister

    "Our country is a banana republic, a nation that North Koreans point at and laugh. To be honest, readers, if we were you we’d get out while we still could."

    according to Stuey, it's time for the jocks to get oot or they'll drown like rats.

    1. Campbell left 30 years ago and much prefers English life so this doesn't come as a shock.

      'Banana republic', 'North Korea' and 'democratic failure' is the mask pretty much slipping off fully now. He's struggling to hide it now as he realises people are on to him and the cash isn't flowing south any more.

      Of course if he's been getting cash from other, more erm 'local' sources of late, that's going to be cut off soon too. It would only ever be kept up if seemed the site had influence in Scotland.

      Wings / unionism staked everything on #committeegate. It's failed.

    2. Dont you mean a Banana Monarchy?

  9. Nice of the First Minister to say she has full confidence in Leslie Evans

    1. If politics is in any way like football that means evans is toast.

    2. Sturgeon certainly rubbing salt in Whitehall's wounds now.

  10. I'll be writing to my SNP constituency candidate telling him if he changes his name to redacted he will get my vote. Somehow I don't think he will.


    Both Votes SNP Graeme Glass sends this tweet to Craig Murray.

    "Mate have you got your gym regime going yet? You will need to be fit to fight off the admirers in prison. Ex Foreign Office ambassador will definitely catch a few eyes in Barlinnie."

  12. James

    Take a look at the comments btl on WGD that is where your blog is heading if you follow Mr Kavanagh down the road of misleading his readers. You both are not too keen on Campbell - that is fair enough - but you both know what Sturgeon has been up to.

    Clearly a lot of independence supporters don't like the truth and that is their right. The SNP is now like New Labour. For people like Smearer Skier to try and goad me in to breaking the law by naming the alphabet women and a jail sentence like the poor guy from Fife shows just low these people are. I prefer not to be associated with such types any longer. I bid thee farewell.

    1. Hooray!!!! The "nastiness" quotient just dropped by half, and the intelligence quotient just jumped by at least ten points!!

      Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out......

    2. This was as predictable as the outcome of the Hamilton enquiry.

    3. Lord Ha Ha/Stuart failed so he goes away. Bless.


    4. If Stuart Campbell has any genuine concerns, communicating in the manner he does certainly won’t convince anyone. He behaves like a boor, child like in his reactions, aggressive, vitriolic, disparaging. His rants illustrate someone on the edge of a breakdown. I stopped reading his stuff with his Hillsborough observations, insensitive damaging incompetent indulgence. For any people out there who claim to want independence but not under Sturgeon, given that we can remove her and her party in an election after independence, are they telling us to stick with Boris? Have no say in an election given Scottish votes count for nothing, be unable to do a thing about it. Boris or Sturgeon? Is that really a question?

    5. If "TFS" ISN'T the Bath dwarf incognito, then he must be a very, very close friend, as evidenced by the ungracious snide attack on Paul Kavanagh and WGD above.

      Paul Kavanagh is ten times the man you are Bathman. He IS a true Scot, living in Scotland, advocating for Scotland, who REALLY depends on being crowdfunded by Scots for his blogging survival. There isn't a HINT that HE is being supported by anyone other than Scottish seekers after independence.

      HE didn't choose to leave Scotland, to live in the most English of English cities, and HE didn't spend crowdfunding money on an ego-led legal suit, which benefited nobody - not yourself, and certainly not your supporters, whose money was pissed against a wall in expensive lawyers fees. Did the nasty lady call you a name? Aw, diddums......

      Paul Kavanagh hasn't lost sight of the goals of HIS supporters. His (and their) goal isn't the dismembering of the SNP, but independence. He doesn't spend only 4% of his time and effort against unionists .... he spends 100% of his time fighting against unionists and unionist propaganda.

      You get thrown off WGD comments for being vile ..... NOT for mildly disagreeing with Paul's views ..... as happens to anyone who doesn't fawn all over you.

      The Indy campaign could do with another two or three Paul Kavanaghs. We can CERTAINLY manage to trundle along without the vile poison oozing out of Bath.

    6. https://girltalkhq.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/4-1-e1492465878763.jpg

    7. OH Thank god! please what ever you do dont come back It is never difficult to distinguish between independence for Scotland with a grievance and a ray of sunshine

    8. "Will ye no' come back again ?"

  13. Going back to your headline question james - I don’t think I’m alone in not knowing anyone who has decided they support independence and then decided they now do not.
    So I imagine the underlying ‘yes’ figure must be a (perhaps slowly) growing figure that doesn’t really jump up and down too much.

  14. So, now that the unionist ammo clip is empty, it's time to work on getting more Yes votes.


    UK food exports drop 75% in first month of post-Brexit trade

    UK food and drink exports to the European Union dropped by 75% in January, the first month of life outside the EU’s single market, according to data published by the UK’s Food and Drink Federation.

    Exports to the bloc fell from £1 billion in January 2020 to £256.4 million in the same month the following year, and collapsed by more than 80% to Ireland, Germany and Italy, figures released on Monday (22 March) show.

    Salmon and beef exports were particularly badly hit, slumping by 98% and 91% respectively, while whisky exports dropped from £105.4 million to £38.9 million, a 63% fall.

    1. Fish exports to the EU (just about their only export market) fell 83% in January according to the ONS. Some folk think that Brexit hasn't been too bad after all, but they are due for a rude awakening like the one the fishermen are already suffering

    2. The wimpy depleted shook traumatised useless good for nothing banana state 2.0, rejected by society unionists have now exhausted their supply of intellectual ammunition and capacity. They are now reeling and hell-bound. There is only one way on from here, down from them! They have drawn their final straw, they have played their final card and failed miserably!
      God bless Alex SALMON and Nicola SURGEON.

    3. Indyref can't come any quicker! Let's dO THIS BOYS!!!!!

  15. https://unherd.com/2021/03/brexiteers-cant-deny-scots-a-vote/

    1. I got to 'one part state in Edinburgh' and stopped reading.

      No party in Holyrood has a majority.

  16. People that don't read don't know.

    1. Why read lies? Scotland's not a one party state. It's a multi-party PR-type democracy where no single party commands a majority with elections due in 6 weeks. If I want to read shite, I've got the e.g. Express or Wings.

  17. A statement by Alex Salmond.


  18. Latest UK YouGov Poll


    Scottish sub-sample

    SNP 51
    Con 26
    Lab 14
    Grn 5
    LD 3

  19. I've lost count of the times I said that Alex Salmond had never called for Sturgeon to resign.

    It was, for me, the biggest hole in the grand 'SNP conspiracy'.

    Here says it again and asks people like Stu Campbell, and IfS to accept Hamilton's findings.

    Pressure now mounting on whitehall's Leslie Evans.


    Alex Salmond statement: Former first minister announces legal action

    ...Salmond said he would be reporting to the police the leak of the Scottish Government's report into the complaints made against him to the Daily Record - and separately taking legal action against Permanent Secretary Leslie Evans...

    "This is my third and final public statement on the subject of the parliamentary and Hamilton investigations and the Dunlop Review," he said.

    "The inquiries are over and despite their manifest limitations, the findings are in and must be accepted, just like the verdicts of juries and the judgements of courts...

    ....He added: "A month ago, I gave public evidence to the Parliamentary Inquiry itself. I called for some in leadership positions to consider their position. It is in the public interest that such action be taken to prevent a damaging erosion of trust in the institutions of government. As the record shows I did not call for the resignation of the First Minister.

    "I have waited to see the response from those individuals to the publication of the Inquiry reports. Unfortunately, it appears that the clear intention is to carry on regardless.

    "Thus I intend to take two specific actions which emerge directly from the findings of these reports.

    I can't help but feel he knew Sturgeon would be cleared, and wonder if he wanted unionists to make as much hay as possible before that happened, resulting in a subsequent electoral backlash against them.

  20. Close
    Unknown said...
    One of the mildly interesting observations about Ghana No Dae That and his Witnesses is the excessive display of characteristics they use to describe others they 'dislike'. It's a profound lack of self-awareness.

    Self-awareness - a key feature of effective long-term leadership. It's ironic. Sturgeon actually has it in spades - that is not a value judgement of her achievements or otherwise, merely a view on one of her behavioural strengths.

    Ghana and the gang appear at the moment to be utterly bereft of this quality. "But, but, but we are not political leaders nor do we aspire to be!". Which is factual. But incomplete. And absent of context. They position as *thought leaders*. They seek to influence the decision making of our political leaders. They seek to influence how others think about our political leaders. So, by extension, they should be held to and judged against similar leadership standards within the pro Independence community. And anyway not standing for election is no real defence against absence of self-awareness.

    Truth and justice are cornerstones. But the messenger and how the messenger behaves towards others is also important. A quick tour round the drain that passes for the comment facility on WoS these days should carry a warning for those of an open-minded disposition: hyperbole, groupthink, echo chamber, hostile environment, ideologically deterministic, partisanship on steroids and on and on. It is all there. The very things charged they direct at the SNP.

    Fine one might say. Not trying to make pals or pretending to be anything other than a proactive agent for change. However, who and how a message is conveyed is *almost* as important as the content of the message itself. The utterly horrendous singularity of thought is actually what strikes hardest on that site now. Cultish. Autocratic. Intolerant. Veneration of Chief Blogster of Not Ghana. Can-do-can-say-no-wrong....

    ...sound familiar? Yip. It is everything by way of accusation that is levelled at Sturgeon, her supporters, and even those who vote SNP ('cept for the Chief part...she's Chief Mammy apparently)! A mentality and vocabulary shared on WoS by...the Daily Heil, Times, Telegraph, Express, Herald, Scotsman, Spectator, Guido, Unionist parties, Galloway, These Islands, Scotland in Union, Oliver, A Neil et al.

    Self awareness. If there was any spare it could be applied to introspection on this phenom. It *is* possible to support Indy, disagree with Sturgeon, back alternatives to the SNP but all minus the ongoing visceral hatred.

    All of the above, I suspect, would or will be disputed and rejected by Stuart and his two dozen or so most loyal and loud supporters on Twitter and WoS. I'm ok with that. It has been a while since I posted on any platform. It isn't something I'll be rushing to do again. But it is off my chest and I feel a bit better for it.

    So for those screaming at Sturgeon and the SNP to hold a mirror to itself; perhaps you would gain more traction if you applied a little humility and self-reflection to yourselves now and then. Howling at the waning of the moon used to be the preserve of loyalist and unionist extremists in this country. Tragic if some genuinely clever folks on the Yes side fall down the same self-annihating pit.