Sunday, February 28, 2021

Heartbreak for Sunday Mail as they commission Survation poll expecting a No lead - and instead end up with the TWENTY-FOURTH consecutive poll to show Yes on 50% or higher

"Bombshell poll" screamed the traditionally Labour-supporting Sunday Mail, and I just knew that had to mean they were gloating that the run of twenty-two consecutive Yes majorities had come to an end, and that they had probably commissioned one of the two least Yes-friendly firms (either Survation or YouGov) in the hope of producing exactly that effect.  But here's the odd thing: there isn't a No lead.  They must be genuinely gutted about that, because both of the last two Survation polls showed only a two-point Yes lead if Don't Knows were left in.  If the Sturgeon-Salmond controversy had produced a really significant effect on public opinion, you'd certainly expect a swing bigger than the trivial one required to take us to 50/50.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation)

Yes 50% (-1)
No 50% (+1)

That's potentially just margin of error noise, and suggests that public opinion has remained fairly static since the Survation poll of early December.  There's no particular reason, therefore, to assume that a poll produced right now by one of the more Yes-friendly firms (Ipsos-Mori, Panelbase, Savanta ComRes or perhaps JL Partners) would no longer show a Yes lead.

The reality is that the sequence of Yes-majority polls was always going to be broken at some point - unless there was a further swing to Yes.  Why?  Because previous polls by several firms had put Yes on either 51% or 52%, which made it statistically inevitable, due to the margin of error, that an individual poll would eventually produce a figure of 49% or 50% even if public opinion remained static.  So in a sense we're just getting the inevitable out of the way today, and we can now look forward to future polls which still have a very decent chance of showing a Yes lead.

And in one sense the unbroken run for Yes actually continues - because this is the twenty-fourth consecutive poll to show Yes on 50% or higher, ie. either ahead or level.  That sequence stretches all the way back to a Panelbase poll commissioned by Wings last May which also showed a 50/50 split.

UPDATE:  I was chatting to my mum a few minutes ago, and I happened to mention the poll to her.  She said: "Well, in a way it's not that surprising, because even Alex Salmond said Scotland is not ready for..."  And I practically screamed: "WHAT?!  HE NEVER SAID THAT!"  She looked at me incredulously as if she knew for a fact that Alex Salmond had said Scotland wasn't ready for independence.  It was as if I was trying to convince her the sky is green.  "HE DIDN'T SAY THAT!" I repeated.  "Who did say it, then?" she asked me.  "NOBODY!  IT WAS A LIE!  THEY JUST MADE IT UP!"  She couldn't believe it.

If even my independence-supporting mum truly believed that Alex Salmond had said something he didn't, then this is a particularly dark episode for what passes for 'journalism' in this country.  This goes way, way beyond the usual sailing close to the wind - a downright lie has been told in the service of a sinister political agenda, and clearly members of the public have been successfully duped.  I trust there will be complaints lodged with the newspaper regulator IPSO about the Express front page, and in spite of IPSO's reputation, I see no reason why those complaints won't be upheld.  Given the seriousness and sheer cynicism of the intentional lie, the Express may even be forced to make a front page correction.

I gather also that one or two BBC journalists have given viewers the impression that Mr Salmond made the fictitious statement - if so, there may also be a case for complaints to the BBC, and then to Ofcom after the standard fobbing-off arrives in a thousand inboxes.

UPDATE II: I see that the Sunday Mail's report on the poll falsely claims that the Yes vote has fallen to 50% from 58% in October.  I suppose they can technically claim that isn't a direct lie, because there were polls from Ipsos-Mori and ComRes putting Yes at 58%.  However, it's deliberately misleading, because trends can only be measured by looking at polls from the same firm, and the highest Yes vote Survation have reported is 54%.  So in fact there's only been a four-point drop from the peak.

49 comments:

  1. Was there also a Holyrood voting intention poll?

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  2. No was ahead 44-43 but it’s just one poll, trends are more important. Yes is still ahead overall.

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    1. This is backed up by the National. "Overall, 44% of respondents said they would vote No if a referendum was held tomorrow, while 43% said they’d back Yes.}

      https://www.thenational.scot/news/19124123.survation-independence-poll-half-scots-support-yes-vote/

      No surprise the very public SNP feud is damaging the independence movement. But still so sad to see.

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    2. "Backed up" implies there was some doubt about it - there wasn't. 44-43 with Don't Knows left in, but the headline numbers are, as usual, the ones with Don't Knows removed - Yes 50% (-1), No 50% (+1), as stated in the blogpost.

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    3. I don't see any SNP feud other than one made up by unionists.

      That's why nobody can produce a list of SNP figures on the two sides of this feud.

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    4. Aye they are all too scared of Sturgeon. They don't want to end up like Mark MacDonald or Ferrier or Cherry or Mark Hirst or Alex Salmond.

      # scared shitless by despot Sturgeon.

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  3. I am an ardent Independence supporter but there is no doubt that trends are downward ... across all polls. Maybe it's temporary but that's the situation.

    After the Brexit shambles and immediate aftermath I would have hoped that Yes would be genuinely shifting ahead but it's just not happening (for whatever reason - lack of Independence focus, Sturgeon inquiries, GRA splits, party division etc).

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  4. MoE on last Survation.

    This is a very good article on Scots Law and the committee.

    Cuts through all the unionist crap and bluster.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19123699.andrew-tickell-understanding-legalities-behind-holyrood-committee/

    Andrew Tickell: Understanding the legalities behind the Holyrood Committee

    Section 162 of the Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2010 is what prevents Salmond's 'secret' evidence (papers this morning) being published. Was passed when Salmond was FM.

    Salmond's team submitted evidence that he claimed showed 'conspiracy' but Lady Dorrian did not consider it relevant, and no effort was made to appeal that, even though Salmond's team had every right to do. This would suggest it wasn't important / would not have helped his case, otherwise they definitely should have appealed; the mans liberty was at stake.

    So it seems there isn't any key evidence being withheld after all. If neither the trial judge nor Salmond/his team considered it key, it's difficult to see how it can be.

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  5. The Britnat media standing with Nicola Sturgeon in the gutter. If you want to stand with them get your wellies on.

    You won't be seeing an independence referendum but you will be helping to keep Scotland in the UK and compromising any morals you may have. Your choice.

    People like Smearer Skier have already sold out. The truth and decent standards of behaviour mean nothing to him. A Scotland devoid of any moral standards is what the Britnats advocate. A Scotland devoid of any moral standards is what I'm with Nicola advocates.

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  6. James your mum is not alone plenty of independence supporters still believe the Britnat media. A poster on your site regularly references them as valid sources. Plenty of posters on your site are too lazy to do their own research and believe the Britnat media.

    Yet there is still a majority for independence. What would the % for independence be if we didn't have the anti democratic set up that a media controlled by the country that wants to prevent Scottish independence broadcasts non stop propaganda in Scotland.

    What would the % for independence be if Swinney had got Broadcasting devolved as part of the Smith commission. Who remembers what he achieved? Oh that's right Stamp duty.

    What would the % for independence be if the SNP actually wanted independence.

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    1. There is a clear and blatant effort by the mainstream MSM in Scotland to bury Brexit and the state of the UK economy. Nothing / Nada about 3 million unemployed with a further 3 million on furlough. This could see up to 10% unemployment rate. While i disagree with you on much IFS the media is definitely working an agenda

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    2. Of course they are ST. It was forecast that the Britnats would use the persecution of Salmond at the best time to suit them. Who handed the opportunity to them on a plate. It wisnae Salmond. Idiots are actually suggesting Salmond should have lied on oath. He was probably the first person up before the Committee that didn't lie on oath. Murrell lied multiple times and he is still Chief Exec of the SNP. Murrell plotted to send the first SNP FM to prison and he is still Chief Exec of the SNP. How is this acceptable to SNP members?

      If the leadership of the SNP are not actively working to reduce the polls then they are doing a good job of looking as if they are.

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    3. ST - do you think it is a lucky coincidence that Sturgeon is going before the Committee on a Wednesday on the same day as Sunaks budget statement.

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    4. Should Sturgeon fit her schedule around what English Tories are doing?

      I know unionists would love that.

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  7. You should all wait till Nicola gives, under oath, her evidence on Wednesday.

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    1. Correct. It must be a bit disappointing to the publisher that the No side have not taken the lead after a week of hysterical headlines on TV, Radio and the press and the Westminster army of posters who inhabit the online blogs and twitter. I would have liked to have seen a Yes majority in the poll but we are where are. I see that some false friends from the Wings site have now sunk to the level of passing around fake photos.

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    2. Marcia - got your wellies on. It ain't anywhere near as low as condoning people trying to send an innocent man to prison.

      You see William and you are completely missing the point of the Inquiry sessions. It is NOT to give evidence. Your evidence is supposed to be submitted in writing. The point of the meeting is to be questioned on your previously submitted evidence.

      Have either of you two actually bothered to read her submissions. I say submissions because she had to correct her original submission as part of it was false.

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  8. Andrew Marr signed the Ragmans roll many years ago and sold out his country to Westminster.

    Nick Eardley is obviously being groomed to replace him as he has clearly signed the Ragmans roll as well and sold out his country for London gold.

    Nicola Sturgeon the modern day Toom Tabard.

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  9. The transcript of the evidence session was published, if not on Friday evening (I think it was), then certainly on Saturday. They are still repeating the lies today.
    https://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=13158&i=119127

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    1. I should have noted that the transcript is (still) labelled Draft, and there are probably a few inaccuracies. One of them is near the end, where AS answers JB's question near the end about whether he has forgiven NS:

      "Jackie Baillie:
      It is, indeed, a tiny question, convener—I promise.

      Mr Salmond, you have been very, very careful not to call for Nicola Sturgeon to resign. Does that mean that you have forgiven her for her handling of this?

      Alex Salmond:
      No. It means that, in relation to the people I have named in the evidence that I have put forward, I believe there is documentary evidence for the reasons why they should consider their positions. Whether you call it being careful or anything else, I do not think that it is for me to judge what happens to someone who may have broken the ministerial code. If they have broken the ministerial code—if Mr Hamilton or this committee finds that—I suppose that the next question is, what is the breach? That will then be determined. However, I am in the fortunate position, as a former First Minister, that that is no longer my responsibility. It is partially the responsibility of this committee, substantially the responsibility of Mr James Hamilton and fully the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament."

      The video now has those words in captions, which makes it abundantly clear that there should be a comma after No at the start of his answer, and that he doesn't say "in relation to".

      When you listen, it's clear that AS does not say he hasn't forgiven NS.

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    2. Gordon, correct but it is clear that Salmond does not say he HAS forgiven her either. The key point he is making is the people he is accusing of plotting against him have irrefutable evidence against them.

      Mafia leaders were always good at getting their minions to do their dirty work for them and maintaining an evidential distance. But everyone knew they they were guilty because the minions worked for them.

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    3. Unionists are saying Salmond hasn't forgiven Sturgeon.

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    4. Unionists are lying about what Salmond said just like you Smearer Skier ( lying since 2014).

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  10. No real surprise that there has been a dip in support even if it is relatively modest. There has been a full on attack in the media regarding the SNP leadership. Voters don't like divided parties. Labour have found that out time and again. The Tories had the same problem through the 90s and 00s over Europe.

    Salmond may feel justified in his righteous anger but like Samson if he brings the temple down it will crush him too. Certainly that is the fervent sticky Unionist wet dream. They don't care about Salmond or even legality (just look at the corruption in the PPE contracts) it is all about stopping the SNP and independence by whatever means.

    Of course, it may be a temporary dip. The inquiry will fall out of the headlines next week just as vaccines ramp up again and the talk turns to easing lock down. We shall see. Strangely, the Opionium sub sample had the SNP up on 6% tiday. That is a tidy figure.

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    1. HandandShrimp did you want Salmond to lie under oath? Did you want Salmond to cover up wrong doing. Were you in the Police!!!!!!!!!!

      #moral vacuum

      Salmond did not start his own 3 year persecution that led us here.

      Salmond did not create the Parliamentary investigation. The Scottish parliament did.

      Salmond did not ask James Hamilton to investigate whether Sturgeon broke the Ministerial code. Sturgeon referred herself.

      Is that all you care about - poll figures? I've got news for you - poll figures on their own will not achieve Scottish independence.

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    2. poll figures on their own will not achieve Scottish independence.

      I can't see how endless posts about Holyrood procedural committees is going to further the cause. I've read the history of Wallace and Bruce and they didn't campaign like that. Rather than moan about the government with endless carrier pigeon messages, they got off their erses and did something about it.

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    3. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - lying and covering up wrong doing is helping how?

      Sturgeon is batting for the union just like you.

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  11. The Britnats have lied and misrepresented what Salmond said on Friday.

    Smearer Skier (liar since 2024) has lied and misrepresented what Salmond said on Friday.

    Does that make Smearer Skier a Britnat. I don't know.

    I do know that like the Britnat media Smearer Skier is a moral vacuum.

    Get your wellies on if you want yo stand in the gutter with Smearer and the Britnat media.

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    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - yes you are a mad stalker and it is one of the few true posts you have made.

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  12. I did hear Kirsty Wark on the BBC Broadcasting House radio programme say that support in the poll had gone down from 58% when it was a different pollster but not many would know that. She did actually mention the Sunday National in the press review bit. We will see how things pan out over the next two weeks. Friday's drama as it was billed out to be explosive was in my view a bit of a whimper. One thing abut the general public, they tend to have short term political memories. Brexit will come back to haunt the Tories shortly.

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  13. Just went to have a look at the 'Scottish' Daily Express website and christ there nae half obsessed with the SNP and independence with nearly every article on the front page being anti SNP... the kinda stuff that fuels uber yoons on a daily basis. Maybe we do all need to start reporting the newspapers for lies. I did it recently on an Express article that blamed Scottish police for stopping English tourists at the border from coming into Scotland only for the actual story to say it was Cumbrian police on there side of the border. The amount of gammons in the comments that actually said that Scottish police had no jurisdiction in England without actually thinking the headline was mince was scary .

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  14. I was expecting a slight dip in support for independence for no other reason than some of the higher figures towards the end of last year were, in part, driven by the prospect of no trade deal with the EU. That it is a awful deal hasn't yet impacted most people, but there will be widespread relief that there haven't been widespread food shortages up to now.

    That support for independence is holding up fairly well is encouraging, we can build on it as and when campaigning starts. What is crucial now is that the support for the SNP remains sufficient to return a majority government. Without that we won't get the opportunity to vote Yes.

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    1. Methven - we could vote for actual independence if the SNP put a mandate in their manifesto in May.

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  15. Marcia - you best get your wellies on if you are standing alongside the Britnats and Sturgeon in the gutter.

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  16. It's not good James. I think even before the scandal. Support was static or going slightly back. That's what happens with no campaign and complacency.

    When was the last time the SNP campaigned for independence?

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  17. Also. I just can't see Sturgeon coming out of this well. Trust has gone in the leader. From there it is a downward trajectory. We need a new leader.

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    1. She's got a +32% sat rating with the backing of 2/3 of Scots in terms of her performance.

      And if she's cleared by the committee / Hamilton, that will rise sharply I'd imagine as Scots will feel lied to by all those that said she's done wrong.

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    2. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) thinks he can speak for Scots. I speak for myself in saying what arrogance.

      #lying for Sturgeon

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  18. All of Alex Salmond's 'allies' are backing SNP. Kenny Macaskill, Alex Neil, Joanna Cherry. So unless Salmond is planning on betraying them, my guess is that he still supports the SNP too. He's not said otherwise and hasn't called for Sturgeon to resign.

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  19. 16&17 year olds and EU Citizens included in this poll?

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  20. I think we can all be pretty confident that if Sturgeon knows she's likely going to have to go, then a successor will already be waiting in the wings. Loads of great candidates.

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    1. Aye Angus Robertson another who has signed the Ragmans roll and operates in a moral vacuum. Just like you Smearer.

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  21. For a poll of polls making it now: Yes 53 No 47 (ex DN) 48 43 inc DN

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  22. Did they omit 16 and 17 year old again?

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