Is the independence movement falling into a similar trap? After all, to achieve independence, we need to do two things: a) we need to build the Yes vote (or more accurately keep it where it is, now that it's over 50%), and b) we need a strategy for bringing about a referendum or equivalent democratic event. Both sides of the coin are equally important, and yet large parts of the movement are only focused on one. Those who say that all our problems will be solved if Nicola Sturgeon is deposed overlook the fact that she's taken us to sustained majority Yes support, and that we could squander those gains with a less charismatic leader. The best strategy in the world for achieving a referendum would be pointless if we then lose the vote.
But supporters of the leadership have just as much of a blind spot. They talk as if it doesn't matter that Boris Johnson will keep rejecting a Section 30 or that we have no apparent strategy for circumventing his veto, because every time he says "no", support for Yes will supposedly keep growing. Er, even if that's true, so what? What satisfaction or comfort will it be (or should it be) to the current generation of SNP politicians if they reach the end of their careers with hundreds or thousands of opinion polls having shown support for independence, but with Scotland still firmly stuck in the UK prison?
The obvious way of squaring the circle is for the current leader to remain in place, but with a much more credible strategy for bringing about an independence mandate.
Yes, but is there ever a cut off point where we say we’ve given the leadership ample opportunity and, whatever the risks, we’re better off at least attempting plan B with a different leader? 2021 is the last chance before we explore alternatives as far as I’m concerned.
ReplyDeleteI'd say the cut-off point is when the leadership has an unambiguous mandate from the electorate to hold a referendum and declines to do so (or requests a S30 and doesn't pursue an alternative route when it's rebuffed). That point hasn't been reached.
DeleteYes - I agree with that 100%. This just can't go on forever. Not to mention that history shows that other countries gained independence when seismic events happened (brexit in this instance). The window of opportunity is now and if we scupper it in 2021/2, I'm afraid there won't be another one for a long time. It is extremely important that SNP get the majority of MSPs in May, and also the majority of all votes cast (if that doesn't happen, then SNP together with the Greens). But - if the present leadership decides to do nothing with those votes or just waits for Johnson to say yes when he keeps saying no, then we deserve a better leadership. I think NS is aware of this.
DeleteHow about win 55 seats, deal Labor: we support you for 5 years, we get a referendum which takes effect the day of next election. That would give time to prepare. Win win. 5 years is less than wars take for independence.
DeleteDo we have any data on whether:
ReplyDelete‘she's taken us to sustained majority Yes support’
or
‘she’s presided over ...’
?
There have been major events. I’m not sure how much is down to her personally
I hope it isn’t just personality because that would be at risk if she has let Parliament down
I don't think it's anything really to do with Sturgeon personally. Nobody supports indy 'cause sturgeon' or 'cause salmond'. If she was totally shit and/or a witch, you'd just find people voting for alternative pro-indy parties, with these appearing to replace the failing SNP.
DeleteThe rise of the SNP is product of rising support for independence, not the other way around.
And if unionists succeed in removing Sturgeon using Salmond, it won't stop indy. They are wasting their time with the whole 'Salmond this, Sturgeon' that crap.
Very good short post. If you look at UK and US politics they put too much faith in having a charismatic leader to win power and retain it, rather than develop coherent strategies and plans.
ReplyDeleteA disgraceful comment by John Swinney on BBC Politics Scotland today
ReplyDelete" a lot of which have now been conceded by Alex Salmond in court"
The persecution and smearing of Salmond continues. Dusgusting and disgraceful stuff by Swinney. Perhaps he would be better addressing the facts at hand and also explain why his Scotgov have deliberately and illegally kept hidden incriminating Scotgov correspondence from two trials.
Honest John no more.
Couldn't agree more. Where was he in Salmond's hour of need? And yet him and Blackford are out beating the drum for Sturgeon along with the Unionist press. Says it all really.
Delete"Where was he in Salmond's hour of need"
DeleteAre you suggesting Swinney should have interfered in the inquiry into the allegations and/or the court investigation to try and get Salmond off the hook?
Scotland the country has looked more stable and cohesive with Nicola.
ReplyDeleteThe bridth of knowledge evident in the Covid broadcasts from Leitch Smith and the chief nursing officer etc have shown that the Scots can run the show without the usual "experts" from London.
Indeed Johnson's team have stumbled and failed to impress.
So, not just Nicola but she's put in a power of work for the country and voters like her.
She'll be a huge asset in the May elections.
@Cubby aka Independence for Scotland.
ReplyDeleteWhy don't you contact the police and inform them of the crime? Surely if you have spotted something 'illegal' it is your civic duty yo do so?
That's in France. Theres no obligation to report a crime in Scotland. Tough luck Juteman. I like John but he's an apologist for Sturgeon. Speak to any of the businesses in his constituency and most know Salmond who regularly visited to smooch and buy soft fruit beef etc from the local farmers thereby adding the touch of charisma to keep dour Swinney in a job. Sturgeon has been here not even once and I suspect she avoids Dundee like the plague.
DeleteJuteman, if you took the time to read the papers on the Committtee website you would see Salmond raised the matter and said he would be taking it forward with the Lord Advocate. No need for me to raise it.
DeleteI must be missing something. When has Sturgeon ever said that she's going to "keep on asking" Boris for a section 30 order?
ReplyDeleteShe refuses to let him off the hook by just giving up the idea of a section 30 order, but if she asks him after an election in which more than 50% of the voters have voted for Indy parties, then he really WILL have refused " the will of the people", and legislating for a referendum without a section 30 order will be the next logical step.
Why are people misconstruing what she is saying?
In my case, it's because I've been marched up this hill before. We were told there would be a referendum in 2020, but by the time lockdown began (which more or less coincided with the last realistic time a bill could have been passed to have any chance of a vote in the autumn) there was absolutely nothing on the table. The Social Justice Commission, which was meant to "build the case" for independence hadn't even reported. To the best of my knowledge, it still hasn't. It was still consulting on social care issues in October. At the same time, no advance had been made on the currency question. That's arguably even more worrying, because the SNP has a conference which sets party policy, and it rejected Andrew Wilson's national suicide note in favour of an independent currency ASAP. If the leadership has taken that to mean "maybe ten years after independence, once we've gone through relentless austerity as demanded by Wilson," I think it's clear they have no respect for members setting policy. In the meantime, Wilson is giving frankly embarrassing interviews where he says there's a "growing consensus" around his plan. The opposite is true. The more people look at it, especially in the context of recovering from the pandemic, the more people see that's it's hopelessly flawed.
DeleteI can kind of accept that the FM doesn't want to be openly campaigning for independence during the pandemic, and it has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works. However, the party could still be working. There's training and organising to be done. There are bridges to be built with the grassroots, and policies to be developed and explained. None of that is happening. None of it is even in the works. None of it was in the works this time last year either. A short campaign seems to be what we're looking for now, and it's naïve to think the battle is won just because Yes leads in the polls. If you thought last time saw a lot of mud thrown, you ain't seen nothing yet. Activists need to have some guidance on what's got to be done. Last time, there was plenty of time for campaign groups to recruit and train and learn the issues and get ready. This time, people need to be ready to go on rapid deployment. That's simply not possible without more guidance from the leadership on what we expect to be campaigning FOR.
Alex, it may seem logical to you but she said a LEGAL referendum.
DeleteWhat is to stop Westminster legislating that any referendum held by the Scot parliament is illegal. Nothing. Sturgeon can then say I will not break the law - therefore no referendum.
Great post but the UK isn’t a prison! A prison implies punishment and no way out. The UK benefits Scotland and Scotland benefits the UK, and Scotland can hold a referendum any time it wants, with or without UKgovt support.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon is so popular - ‘No’ might gain some support if she resigns.
57% do not think the UK benefits Scotland and I agree with them.
DeleteJust do something, SNP. Anything. Withdraw all SNP MPs from britnat Westminster for a start.
ReplyDeleteMight have been interesting to poll on that.
DeleteI don't for a moment accept that England's permission is needed for indy (that's not what an S30 is), but the continued refusal of Westminster to recongise the international human right that is self determination for Scotland would warrant such a move.
I’m not saying this is right or wrong, I’m just suggesting the following might be the case:
DeleteAt what stage does self-determination become absolute? Should the Nation state not also be considered when the votes are in the balance? What if 60% of Orkney wanting to leave the UK? What if 60% of Shetland wanted to leave Scotland? What Edinburgh want to stay in the UK and Glasgow wants to leave?
The UK government governs for the whole UK. There isn’t an English government.
I happen to believe that Scotland, a country, should have more self determination, more than, say, Yorkshire, but you can see why a nation state would want to try to pull every democratic lever it can to keep support for its own existence solid.
Shetland is part of Scotland,Scotland is not part of England, thats the difference
DeleteDoing something for the sake of it?
ReplyDeleteWe only have 4 months till the May elections.
All SNP constituency candidates are already in place. Win big. Announce the intention/date of Indyref2.
Don't cross your bridges before you need to.
Fewer Scots than ever now believe we're in equal union with England.
The more obstructionist London becomes the more the scales will fall from their eyes.
And remember this. To lose an election there has to be a credible alternative government.
There isn't one. That's why we're in the last days of the EnglandUK Union.
It’s a contradiction to say ‘we need independence now, so let's get rid of Nicola Sturgeon’. To replace Nicola Sturgeon now, when support for SNP and independence is the highest it has ever been, can only set the Yes movement backwards. Whether you or anti or pro Sturgeon, her leadership has undoubtedly increased support for Independence across a wider section of the Scottish electorate (with the exposure of Covid and Brexit admittedly). The Unionist MSM would run the ‘division’ and ‘civil war’ narrative for months, and it would likely lead to a quite a few getting back on the constitutional fence, until there was more direction of leadership.
ReplyDeleteThe quickest way to Independence is to exhaust the democratic process, which in my opinion is May this year, It is also my opinion that there wont be a referendum at all, why on earth would the UK agree to a winner takes all event when it is so far behind in the polls, and Scotland could effectively walk away on their own terms. It is logical that the British government will at some point soon after the Holyrood election, begin negotiations with Edinburgh behind the scenes on how to end the Union, in a manner which both protects their interests, and the Scottish Governments. We may dislike the British establishment, but they are not stupid, and will recognise Independence is now inevitable.
With this morning's news it looks as if Nicola will do well to escape criminal prosecution - the choice to remain as FM will be taken out of her hands, and out of the hands of the SNP and its membership. Hamilton's decision to widen his inquiry to include the question of her misleading parliament seals her fate. It's a matter of public record that she did.
ReplyDeleteYou don't need to lay out an alternative strategy as the path is obvious. You go for the section 30, yes Boris is saying no, but Boris also said there would be no UK internal border and that he wouldn't sell out the fishermen. So why waste time until that is resolved.
ReplyDeleteIf Boris sticks to his guns then the Scottish Parliament has an unbinding referendum; which, let's assume, Yes wins.
We then have a democratic referendum supporting Scottish independence with exactly the same legal status as the Brexit referendum.
Boris then has to explain why executing Brexit was necessary but Scottish independence not so. Meanwhile Scotland starts an international campaign for sanctions against the anti-democratic UK government. We embarrass them to the conference table.