Thursday, November 5, 2020

Sparkling Survation survey sustains the sequence: eleventh poll in a row to show pro-independence majority

Survation have traditionally been one of the most Yes-friendly pollsters, but oddly that hasn't really been the case during the current spell of sustained pro-independence majorities - they haven't been showing a Yes vote even higher than that reported by other firms (in the way that Ipsos-Mori did, for example).

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 54% (+1)
No 46% (-1)

54% does equal the all-time high for Yes with Survation - but that high was previously recorded long before this year.

In some quarters you'll see this being billed as the twelfth Yes majority in a row, but in my view it's the eleventh - I think to be consistent you really need to only include polls that ask the standard question.

More to follow...

22 comments:

  1. I do hope unionists continue with the whole 'Sturgeon will feed your kids to trans zombies while Whitehall civil servants, the police and judges all perjure themselves en masse to further her career!' approach to winning people back to the union. It's going swimmingly.

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    1. SSS - now that is a post that your sane personality should have deleted and prevented your bampot personality from embarrassing itself. I guess one of the benefits of having multiple personalities is that you can blame someone else for making an arse of yourself.

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    2. What I said is true; see latest survation polling; BBC promoted ISP on <1%, SNP into the 50's again.

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    3. Can we have less of the personal attacks.

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    4. It's a particularly common trait in unionists that can't be helped. See below.

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    5. Marcia. As long as SSS keeps stalking me and insulting me he will receive similar by reply.

      Delete
  2. Out of interest, anyone ken when Salmond is making the comeback Sturgeon was allegedly trying to stop? Nothing in the way now.

    Or maybe that was a big fat lie unionists came up with?

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  3. The voters are just not engaged with the so-called "war" between Sturgeon and Salmond.
    BBC scotland gave it another mention again tonight as the Tories tried to keep it in public view.
    The poll however is further confirmation of the progress that SNP and YES have made in the last year.
    Remember that 4% over the UK was enough for Brexit. A YES lead of 8%+ is looking like the settled will of the Scottish people.
    Oh Aye, while I'm here Sunak is fooling nobody over the extending of furlough till March. Its still a case of refusing independent application of furlough in Scotland when not applied to England. Sunak is a power-hogging BritNat like all the rest.
    He's a Tory for God's sake!

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  4. Trump (Skiers hero) is coming over as totally deranged. What a liar.

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  5. I keep waking up each morning for the US pelection result and it's still going on.

    They're worse than the western Isles for this.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. SSS - great to see your sane personality is still deleting some of your posts. Pity some of your other personalities don't do the same to the rest of the deranged nonsense and lies you post.

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  7. Current new covid case rate per capita in the rUK is now 65% higher than Scotland according to the UK government.

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    1. Only 5.5% positive today in Scotland.

      Nearly back down to the WHO 5% threshold.

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  8. Huh?

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/10/your-thoughts-on-possible-timing-of.html?showComment=1602250231525#c7028240643779475869

    A little bit of basics for Skier...

    “While the R-value remains above 1.0, infections will continue to grow at an exponential rate.


    Yet:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54841375

    The increase in coronavirus infections appears to be slowing around the UK, latest data from the Office for National Statistics show.

    Although the number of people with Covid continues to rise, the growth is levelling off.


    UK R value is 1.1-1.3.

    Why are cases not increasing 'exponentially' poppy? R is above 1.

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    1. It is, all the time that the virus is growing (R is above one) that the virus is increasing at an exponential rate - ie the amount of new cases in a generation is proportional to the number in the previous generation.

      So R=3 you get:

      1,3,9,81,243 etc

      R=2 you get

      1,2,4,8,16

      As the R rate lowers the number of people infected in each generation of growth slows down (levels of) but any growth is still exponential.

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    2. As the R rate lowers the number of people infected in each generation of growth slows down (levels of) but any growth is still exponential.

      At a given instant yes, but not through time, even where transmission time is constant, which is what matters and what I was on about.

      You give examples of constant R patterns which don't apply if R is falling.

      If R is falling through time, then new cases will stop rising 'exponentially'.

      R (falling) = 3,2,1.5,1.1,1.01
      New cases/day = 1-> 3,6,9,9.9,10

      If infect 3 people (R=3) on Monday, but they each only infect 2 (R=2) on the Tuesday and so on...case growth is not exponential over time.

      Which is what began to happen late September / early October, leading to the recent flattening / drop in new cases per day.

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    3. No its still exponential growth, its just that the rate of growth changes as the R number changes the it is still growing exponentially. Its a good job that it does we would really be really screwed if the virus had linear growth, for example, every generation of the virus would grow by the same amount no matter what we did (it has a fixed growth rate). With Exponential growth if you can reduce the growth rate (R in the case of a virus) then you can reduce the size of next generation.

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  9. Biden has pulled ahead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania now.

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  10. Down goes Donald Trump.
    Ladies and gentlemen we got him
    Brilliant

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  11. Alistair Jack and his twee little flag cushions does a great Trump impression.

    Stop the indy vote! Scotland is rigged! The UK has won in Scotland!

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  12. Where was the Murdoch Press and Media when the Yoons were rigging the 2104 Indy Referendum?

    The above Poll is a tribute to those of us pushing Scots Indy daily and not the the SNP because them SNP have done precious little to promote it in the last 6 years.

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