Monday, December 9, 2019
More information about the YouGov independence poll
So the mystery of the YouGov independence poll has been solved - it wasn't the same poll that gave the SNP a 44% to 28% lead over the Tories. It was, as Britain Elects said, a later poll that was conducted between the 3rd and 6th of this month. The headline voting intention numbers have been blanked out in the datasets, but the unweighted numbers are there, and don't look radically different from the earlier poll in respect of the SNP v Tory battle. 347 unweighted respondents back the SNP in the new poll, compared to 359 in the earlier one. The number of unweighted respondents backing the Tories has only increased to 215 to 228. So if I was going to hazard a guess, it would be that the weighted numbers will show the SNP lead has fallen by somewhere between two and four percentage points, which would still leave them with a decent enough lead of 12-14%. However, there may have been a significant Labour recovery - the number of unweighted respondents backing Labour has jumped from 107 to 159.
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I'm getting increasingly jittery about the election in Scotland. I'm starting to feel certain now that the Tories could hold 12/13 or maybe all their seats, plus up to 4 Tory gains. Any SNP losses could be offset by a few gains from Labour though, and if they come out with 35 or 59% of seats again then it would be a pretty good result.
ReplyDeleteI really do think the Tories will struggle in a heavily Remain area like Stirling (although the presence of a Green candidate isn't exactly helping).
DeleteI agree. I think the Tories will probably lose Stirling and Edinburgh South West is probably out of reach for them now too. Perth and North Perthsire, Central Ayrshire, Lanark and Hamilton East and Argyll and Bute will remain highly marginal though and are being ramped up in unionist circles as Tory gains. Whether that comes to pass though is another matter of course. Hopefully any losses though are as I said offset by gains from Labour where the last minute surge they need doesn't seem to have materialised as of yet.
DeleteIt looks like there's some sort of Labour boost in this poll, although not yet of the type of scale they would need. I can certainly see that there might be a danger of a Tory gain in Argyll & Bute, but I'm struggling to imagine it in Lanark & Hamilton East. Maybe I'm missing something, though.
DeleteThe key is the makeup of the Labour vote in S Lanarkshire and Ayrshire. There are hotbeds of traditional Orangism/Unionism in these areas and and there is certainly a risk that most ex-Labour votes go Tory there.
DeleteLanark and Hamilton East would likely have been a Tory gain in 2017 if UKIP hadn't stood. Plus they could take more votes from tactical votes from ex labour voters.
DeleteWith much of the feildwork soon to be a week out of date, it's a bit late for hot off the press vi numbers.
ReplyDeleteJames. Tables seem to have weighted vi numbers and look unchanged. I'm oot at the mo do cannae check properly. Looks like at least 44% SNP.
ReplyDeleteTories mibbie doon a smidgen tae.
DeleteI have a feeling you're looking at the wrong one - there are two polls close together in the archive. The one that has the weighted numbers in the datasets is the one we already knew about from last week.
DeleteAye. Links are right next to each other.
DeleteUn Base looks very pro no in the correct one though. 59%. Which would make it less pro snp.
DeleteYou sound you've been touched by the furry finger.
DeleteSome people sound more than touched.
DeleteMy blue Tory candidate is saying the Scottish Tories will build the rail link to Glasgow Airport. The Yellow Nat si Tories cancelled this project after millions were spent. So who is progressive, Yellow or Blue?
ReplyDeleteWrang election ya fanny.
DeleteActually you are the fanny. It was on the current Blue Tory election leaflet delivered today by post to thousands in my constituency. Leaving that aside the Green progressive Scottish Nat si party did cancel the GARL.
DeleteTransport is devolved.
DeleteIf free movement is being cancelled, there'll be much less use for the airport.
DeleteAlthough it's busy at the moment with skilled workers emigrating.
"My blue Tory candidate is saying the Scottish Tories will build the rail link to Glasgow Airport. The Yellow Nat si Tories cancelled this project after millions were spent."
DeleteAh, not the EU? I thought was always because of the EU.
Only 9 km of extra track were required to extend to The Airport. And the Scottish Nat sis screwed it. I do wonder why the Greens have been carrying them. London just does what is required.
DeleteI want your meerkats to drive into the ocean.
DeleteGWC sniffs chemtrails.
DeletePoor Skier digging up nonsense because of lack of argument and an inability to promote nationalised public transport. The Blue Tories have a better record on public transport than the Yellow Nat si Tories, who would have thought it possible. Vote Labour.
ReplyDeleteKnickerless reportedly abandoning a Scottish referendum for a Brexit referendum. Just shows she wants Scotland to be dominated by the EU fascists.
ReplyDeleteDo you know if ptarmigan is the game of game of game bird that people can safely can safely eat?
DeleteI did clock a ptarmigan once when on the Cairngorm but I had my pieces with me.
DeleteAnd if you were on a train in Peru you'd probably claim you'd seen Montezuma and his Aztecs. Fraudster.
DeleteI am happy if my Scotrail train turns up for Glesga Central.
DeleteAs long as you get touched by the furry finger.
DeleteMr enters, as long as you employ Scottish lubrication.
DeleteI have it on good authority that GWC is into dog porn.
DeleteNot just dog porn actually, his preference is for puppy porn - full on peadobestiality.
Dude walks around parks with a packet of chewsticks in his pocket, scanning the horizon for easily led underaged canines to predate upon.
Most marginal constituency (20 votes in 2017) in the most pro remain part of England
ReplyDeleteKensington, constituency voting intention:
CON: 39% (+3)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 27% (-6)
GRN: 2% (-)
BREX: 2% (+2)
I don't think this tactical voting lark is going so well.
Aye, it doesn't look like the UK will survive this election.
DeleteNI staying in the EU and Scotland moving to indy if Boris wins.
Argyll and Bute actually looks ok for SNP to those of us on the ground there unless the hapless Alan Reid (LD) manages to collapse completely rather than partially.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe the Tories are even in with a chance of taking Argyll and Bute, tbh, given there is really no Labour hardcore/Orange Order vote to squeeze in this vast rural seat, and the traditional pro-establishment votes (which in this constituency are very much concentrated in Cardross, Helensburgh and round the Rosneath peninsula) is split between the Tories and LibDems, the latter putting up a well known former MP which should hopefully assist in keeping the unionist vote well and truly divided.
ReplyDeleteLanark and Hamilton East is a different kettle of fish. With the Labour collapse, and the LibDems almost non existent in Lanarkshire, the SNP will be favourites to gain Rutherglen and Hamilton West from Labour, but theres the possibility this could be offset next door by losing the Lanark and Hamilton East seat to the Tories via the hard core Orange block (mostly ex Labour) voting tactically for the Tories.
Sad that there is not a Trotskyist Party around with an alternative to the Capitalist conformatists. Whatever happened tae big Tam Sheridan? Where have our great Scottish heroes gone I ask?
DeleteThe lack of any Labour vote is what concerns me in A&B.
DeleteThe SNP IS losing votes to the Tories because of Brexit. I have heard that from my SNP candidate locally and a family member who is running an SNP campaign on the other side of the country. It is reasonable to assume the effect will be worse in areas where Leave polled higher.
In most cases it doesn't matter because the falling Labour vote splits in the SNP's favour and more than makes up for the losses to the Tories. But where there are no Labour votes or where the Labour vote might split the other way, it is a different story.
The updated YouGov MRP poll tonight may help us determine if these effects are really cause for concern, although I know there is some nervousness in what might be called unexpected places.
I tell you, this man is very, very racist. It just slips out sometimes. He has to focus hard on keeping words like 'piccaninnies with watermelon smiles' in.
ReplyDeleteAnyone non white English is scum to him, Scots included.
A dark future awaits Scotland in the UK.
The UK won't be booming with new trade deals, not when the guy in charge of negotiations is hurling racist insults at the families of those across the table, forcing them to emigrate on mass (as is beginning) from a hostile environment.
You can be absolutely sure the EU will be moving to take back N. Ireland for their Irish friends, if simply to protect Irish people there from the racist persecution the brits are so famous for. Varadkar can show them some 'No blacks, no frogs, no Irish' recent pic examples.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969
EU migrants have been able to “treat the UK as if it’s part of their own country” for too long, Boris Johnson said yesterday as he reprised the core message of Vote Leave’s 2016 EU referendum campaign.
If Scotland votes to stay in the racist shithole that is Brexit Britain, I doubt I can stay. I cannot face begging the sweaty wankers with swastika armbands from England for permission for my wife to stay in her home of 20 years. We'll go somewhere that welcomes us.
The reference to Picanninies was a satire of Blair turning up in Africa as a White Saviour. And very funny it was too.
DeleteUsing a bad word doesn't make you racist anymore than being attacked as a racist by woketards proves your guilt. Or is N Hanvey an actual anti-semite? guilt by accusation is best left to feminazis, not democrats.
Yes, but Johnson does it all the time. Calling black people 'Picanninies with watermelon smiles' might be amusing to you as a racist, but not to decent folk. If I used the same words at work to joke about black colleagues welcoming Tony Blair to the university I'd be fired. Maybe because he's using it about foreigners it's ok?
DeleteHanvey didn't saying anything overtly racist. Only if he'd caricatured all Jews in the same way Johnson did all black people would it be comparable.
And I see you don't mention his latest dog whistling. He's directly attacking my wife and friends. Saying they've been treating Scotland - his land - like home for too long. It's classic far right stuff.
Paul Robertson SNP candidate in Banff and Buchan saying we need to remain in the single EU market. It's OK for N Ireland but not Scotland.
ReplyDeleteNae answer from the Tory man.
Hope Nicola uses that tonight rather than the kinna stale constitutional stuff that doesn't catch the public's attention the same.
Great tackety boots performance from Humza last night.
Mair o the same tonight Nicola.
NI is a special case because of Sinn Fein fascist IRA using brexit as an excuse for resuming violence.
DeleteSo Scots need to use violence if they want to stay in the EU?
DeleteMy grandparents didn't fight the Nazis so English Tory scum could deny Scots the right to vote.
And i like sharing grannie's crack unit and getting oot a ma mind.
DeleteAnon earlier this morning said SNP going to Tories, I suspect that was factored in at the 2017 election. I suspect a good number will come back or sit on their hands, based on Johnston behaviour.
ReplyDeleteI agree Labour vote is dissappear but how many wl vote tactically to keep Tories out.
I can only go on what I hear at work and in the pubs and local shop. No one admitting to voting Tory this time but plenty angry with Johnston.
Yesterday's despicibal behaviour over the child sleeping on the floor certainly angered the people at the bus station.
If the Tories get more than 6 seats, I'd be surprised.
Weather forecast not great on Thursday, let's hope the winners aren't the Tory postal voters.
This is what happens when you put racists in charge.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50725715
UK economic growth slowest since early 2009
Now wonder skilled EU workers are emigrating en masse.
Looking at this, I think Labour are maybe more 34-35% as of 2-3 days ago and the lib dems 11%. There is clear lag in the running average, and evidence for this being skewed by sampling.
ReplyDeleteI still think this may be a lot close than it seems in the end. 38% a possibility for Labour maybe? If the Tories drop a little, then we'd be into tiny majority or hung parliament.
https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/who-leads-in-our-poll-tracker/
With all the MSM attacks on Corbyn, I wonder if closet Labour voters have developed a sense of shame. Remember the tories used to consistently perfoem better than the poll predictions because noone liked to admit voting tory. Perhaps there will be a significant number of shy Labour voters. Unlikely I suppose, but if it did happen and it led to another hung parliament, I would LMAO.
DeleteI found this reference on one of the blogs I follow. Reckons the tories are not as far ahead as everyone likes to think. What do you think of the analysis? Here is the link - Dr Moderate.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719501881188354?s=20
Has anyone got any idea how many seats each party will win in Scotland? Seen an article in the BBC news page with Jackson Carlow saying "the election is on a knife edge"
ReplyDeleteYes. The nat sis will get 3. The wholemeal rice brigade will get 3. The ladyman shower will get 3. The workers friend will get 3. And Get Brexit Done will get the rest. 52 for Brexit.
DeleteI see mad mental nicky is back helping the scum media attack Neil Hanvey. He is still a member of the SNP, and is standing for election as an SNP candidate yet she is still backing the yoon bigot laird ahead of an actual patriot. She's not right in the head.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile it is good to see some fightback against the deficit lie. It is a shame that MMN has repeatedly accepted that Scotland has a deficit, thus giving the yoons all the ammunition they need in their smear campaign. We need every SNP MP, MSP, MEP,local councillor and party member, plus every Yesser to speak with the same voice on this.
Scotland has no deficit. Scotland has a budget surplus.
Every time a yoon bigot asks how we can afford this, that and the next thing, give them the same answer. "Out of our massive budget surplus" then tell them to GTF with their Scotophobic lies.
The mad mental nicky is doing no such thing
ReplyDeleteThe First Minister is protecting the SNP herself and SNP voters from being headlined in newpapers as Anti Semites which is what every single newspaper would have done if she had not taken the action she did and Neale Hanvey knows it which is why he won't say anything derogatory about the SNP as he knows the position like every other SNP representative does when it comes to the media
Read less Wings, remember he's just trying to get himself noticed and nobody's bothering with him because he's been found out as the publicity seeker he is....... and use your Napper
Don't keech in your nappy ya bam.
DeleteIs anyone able to complete a song entitled
Delete"I met with Napper Wingsy
and he took me by the hand..."
?
"He said I was quite whimsy
DeleteAnd I said that he was bland."
"He asked for fame and money.
ReplyDeleteI said 'You're getting none',
So he said I was a tranny
Who wanted Brexit done."
And when he launched his party
Deletehe used the royal "we"
and had the land partitioned
so all could have a pee
And when he called out Nicki
Deletehe really meant no harm.
But the followers of Dr Small
prescribed the Funny Farm.
Darlings, you have created poetic genius. I salute your wingèd Muse. Fly to me gently, thou kestrel of joy.
Delete