Thursday, October 3, 2019

YouGov subsample update

Well, I'm not going to beat about the bush here: there are some worrying straws in the wind to be found in recent Scottish subsamples from YouGov.  The last three have had the SNP down in the 30s, which is unusual in recent times, and two of the three have put the SNP below the 37% recorded at the last general election, which is highly unusual.  This looks like the manifestation of what I've been worried about since it became obvious that Jo Swinson would become Liberal Democrat leader.  A Britain-wide party led by a Scot has an inbuilt advantage north of the border, because that person is all over the UK news in a way that the SNP leader is not - a problem that will only get worse during the official campaign.

This is the newest subsample...

SNP 35%, Conservatives 21%, Liberal Democrats 20%, Labour 11%, Greens 6%, Brexit Party 5%

It's quite hard to judge what a result like that would translate into in terms of seats.  The SNP would be making heavy gains from Labour, and at least modest gains from the Tories, but it's very unlikely that the Lib Dems would only be winning four or five seats on 20% of the vote.  They'd probably recover a lot of the former heartland seats that they lost in 2015.

Of course the Greens won't stand in every seat, so some (but not all) of that Green vote can be regarded as the SNP's for the taking...but then again the same may be true in respect of the Brexit Party's vote and the Tories.

I suppose the bigger picture is that this still looks like it could be the election in which Scottish Labour cease to be a major player - and that could mean sustained SNP hegemony under first-past-the-post.

64 comments:

  1. Genuine question - could this SNP downturn be due to WOS's constant attack on the party?

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    1. Unlikely. A difference of 2% is not statistically significant, specifically in a subsample.

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    2. What's the significance of 2%?

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  2. Either that or the revoke policy of the LD's is playing well?

    Without having seen the data, how many people are these subsamples consisting if?

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  3. You perhaps assume this election takes place after an extension in place for Brexit. I think that unlikely, UK heading either for No deal or Brexit agreement then election. How does that play for the SNP? In the latter case it kicks the can and we're in the same place but if the former then all bets are off and there's no hiding for the LibDems in Scotland as a Unionist Brexit party. Any final semblence of UK unity is blown to bits and the voters (assuming the SNP - actually the Scottish Government - actually achieve something meaningful) will have a choice to make, the UK will have passed the Brexit point of no return and Scotland is all but free.

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  4. When you talk about LibDem "heartland seats" you're meaning English seats aren't you? Unless the LDs suddenly collected 75% of the Tory vote in places like Gordon and Roxburgh.
    But the Labour thing interests me. I thought they might go down to LD levels. Now that they've fallen below those they could become a total confused irrelevance (despite the intrepid leadership of Roger Leopard). James, it would be worth writing on the implications for Holyrood 2021 if they became a plumped-up Unionist version of RISE with c. 1.75%. (Then we can get back to the theoretical Wings Party.)

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    1. "When you talk about LibDem "heartland seats" you're meaning English seats aren't you?"

      No, of course I'm not talking about English seats.

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    2. How many seats would be realistic gains for them then? If I recall correctly only NE Fife and Ross, Skye and Lochaber would require a swing of under 15%, and you could expect Blackford to have a good personal vote.

      It does suggest that attacks on the Lib Dems' opposition to a Corbyn Government of National Unity should be stepped up.

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    3. What Niall said. I tend to think about the LDs taking localised wee bites out of things rather than having a heartland (even if they were once stronger in the Highlands & Islands and other northerly and easterly parts).
      Of course there could be some populist polenta eaters attracted by Wild Willie Rennie thinking the unthinkable.

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    4. If the Lib Dems take around 20% of the vote (which is a very big 'if' - these are only subsamples) they may well take seats that don't appear to be even remotely on their radar based on the 2017 result. That's the kind of support they had under Charles Kennedy and in the days of the SDP/Liberal Alliance.

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  5. Here's what I find interesting. For EU leaders, it appears that the best, long-term outcome follows from denying a Brexit extension request. Boris wants an election after an extension was forced on the UK over Boris' objections. Then he gets to run his "Traitors" campaign while parading all the now familiar unicorns for one last parade.

    What would be horrible for Boris is an election shortly after the chaos and disruptions of a hard deal Brexit which makes all the unicorns disappear on All Hallows Eve with the rest of the ghosts.

    Thus, for the EU, a hard Brexit leads to a massive Tory defeat and a majority in the London House of Commons for a single-market, stay in the customs union form of Brexit.

    To me it appears obvious that a hard, no-deal, Brexit harms the UK more than the EU. Companies in the EU still have the EU market and the trade deals the EU has with other nations. The UK has no trade deals, and long negotiations ahead to recreate them. And those negotiations are with entities that the UK has largely been spewing venom and hatred towards. Years of attacks on the EU haven't built good-will, and neither does sailing warships off China's coast and stirring up insurrection in Hong Kong. And tying one's ship to a sinking Donald Trump and his lack of Congressional majorities won't work out so good either.

    So, will EU leaders accept some short term pain to gain the favorable longer-term result? The timing is good for them, as EU elections are just passed.

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  6. The subsamples are volatile, with other pollsters having the SNP much higher. Actually UK wide polls also seem quite volatile with some showing the Tories in the mid 30s and others showing them much lower. We are overdue a full Scottish poll especially with an election coming.

    However, 20% for the LiB Dems seems a bit optimistic. Canvassing returns are not indicating that level of engagement although certainly lack of interest in Labour rings true. One might hope though that the Liberals do wellish in current Tory seats and split that vote. That will not hurt SNP chances.

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    1. "The subsamples are volatile, with other pollsters having the SNP much higher."

      The point being, of course, that YouGov are the only firm that appear to structure/weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, and therefore produce more stable figures that can be taken more seriously. But, yes, for what it's worth the most recent Opinium subsample was extremely favourable for the SNP.

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  7. I doubt the average voter in Scotland knows who Swinson is, she's Scottish, or even care. And when she speaks it sounds like the accents of Dolly Parton and Mrs Brown every few words.

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  8. Joe Swindon will stand for a seat in England.

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    1. Is this a serious suggestion?

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    2. Readers! Another practical quiz.

      If Joao Vowelnargler, Reverend Wingsy and Luke Graham shared a taxi from Cheltenham to the Queensferry Crossing
      a) how much would it have cost?
      b) who you be surprised?
      and
      c) would you (in the best traditions of investigative journalism) check to see who had paid?

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  9. Having read this blog for years now, it appears to me that we can take polls with a pinch of salt up to the last few days of an election. I.e. no point being fixated over them.

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  10. Perhaps if the SNP concentrated on Scottish Nationalism instead of working on their woke credentials, they might have a stronger market brand.

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    1. Maybe. What's certain, though, is that using the term "woke" is a massive bellend flag.

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    2. Uhu. No attempt to argue, just straight in with a round of abuse. Woke 101.

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  11. These would just even out recent 49,52 and 55% values. A 35% lower / 55% upper bound would indicate somewhere in the mid 40's.

    Yougov weighting won't do wonders for scatter if the sample is 140 folk. All it should do is make the median of the range closer to what it would be if they were full polling Scotland.

    It's like a 140 person weighted poll of Scotland. The MoE is at least +/- 8%. And that's not the accuracy, but just the precision.

    You can be +/-1% precision but 20% off in terms of accuracy as that's dependent on your methodological approach.

    The biggest problem for the SNP is British elections are all about England / England's brexit now. It's seriously putting off Scots voters now 50%+ don't even want to be in the UK.

    I mean what's the point in voting in English Elections if they just go ahead with brexit against Scotland's will and refuse a section 30 anyway?

    Scots voters were told last time 'Don't leave the UK, lead the UK!'. So they did that. 50% SNP 2015. And they were treated like lepers, with devolution now being rolled back.

    So turnout fell big style in 2017, mainly due to Scots not voting. The Brits still turned out though.

    It's why SNP share seemed to fall, but Yes has continued to climb.

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  12. Strange that Labour is being outdone by the right wing parties. Scotland always was a Conservative nation as the Scottish Nat sis demonstrate.

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    1. How's it strange if you think Scotland was always conservative?

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    2. Because the Nat sis claim to be socialists like labour do! They are liars like good politicians are.
      We have foodbanks and twice as many politicians that are required.

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    3. Can you direct me to the this claim? The SNP don't say this on their website. They say they are 'social democratic'. This definitely is not socialist. Socialist is much further to the left.

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    4. I listen to Nat sis I know who say after independence they will have socialism. What is said on political websites is mush. Many Labour people numpties have joined the Nat sis with the Socialist promise. So do continue Skier.

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    5. Do you think we'll have socialism in the UK with Boris's brexit?

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    6. Yes definately Boris is a Marx Brother fan.

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  13. Varadkar the EU crawler bum boy is looking frustrated.

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    1. He's not the one facing no deal with anyone, ever, until the backstop is in place.

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    2. I've got a deal with Ross Thomson. It involves going to a party at Gove Mansions.

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    3. Only two things smell of fish. And one of them is Michael Gove.

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  14. If Boris 'the statesman' negotiates hard and say goes for single market in goods/services and customs union just for N. Ireland - i.e. dumping the UK-wide backstop - I'm sure he could get the EU to cave in on that. ERG would back it too.

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    1. I'd say if you added 4 & 5 you'd get 9. I'm amazing how I work things out (AKA state the bleeding obvious).

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    2. The English population would love him for delivering their brexit. N. Irish unionists not so much, but who cares about them? This is about what England wants. It's not as if the DUP vote matters any more. If Johnson can deliver brexit sans no deal crash and UK-wide backstop, English brexit voters won't give a flying fuck if the 'subidy junkies' in N. Ireland are half way back to the republic. I've not met a Scott-Brit brexiter yet that doesn't hate N. Ireland with a vengeance.

      I bet you that this is what he'll do. He's already handed over the single market for goods. It's easy now to sign off a customs union too at the 'last minute' after getting the EU to 'cave in' to his clever negotiating tactics.

      The DUP are fools. They though he was on their side with Stormont getting a say. Stormont's not sitting and won't again until it's too late. If N. Ireland is backstopped, MPs from there will not longer be able to vote on trade matters in Westminster?

      And this will break the union. Massive English betrayal of British unionists in the celtic fringe.

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  15. Cybertout notes: Wingsy has some poll results out this morning, whatever they may be. He was reduced to posting a joke thread yesterday. I'm glad that all our contributions are absolutely serious.

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    1. In the meantime here's a Cymric crumb to feed off:


      Britain Elects
      ‏ @britainelects
      11h11 hours ago

      Whitchurch & Tongwynlais (Cardiff) result:

      CON: 36.4% (-4.5)
      LAB: 28.0% (-10.0)
      PC: 15.9% (+2.3)
      LDEM: 13.9% (+6.3)
      GRN: 5.8% (+5.8)

      Conservative HOLD.

      Some progress for (B)remainians but vote split three ways.

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  16. Full backstop for N. Ireland and the break-up of the UK draws ever closer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49925239

    Brexit: PSNI 'won't police customs checkpoints', says chief constable

    The Chief Constable Simon Byrne has told Boris Johnson the PSNI will not police any customs checkpoints on the Northern Ireland border after Brexit.

    Mr Byrne had a 30 minute video call with the prime minister last Friday.

    He also told Mr Johnson he had "no plans to put police officers on any one of 300 crossings" along the border.

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    1. How can there be a customs border of any form if the PSNI will not enforce it?

      And London telling them to would be a breach of the GFA. Policing is a devolved matter through the GFA.

      I imagine they won't enforce an end to free movement either, so England's borders will be wide open unless there's a one down the Irish sea.

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  17. This will improve Scotland's popularity in England, 'strengthening the ties that bind us'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49924755

    Court to consider if PM can be jailed over no-deal

    A Scottish judge is being asked to consider whether Boris Johnson could be jailed if he takes the UK out of the EU without a deal.

    A legal challenge is to be heard at the Court of Session about whether the prime minister could be forced to delay Brexit if no exit deal is agreed.

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  18. Rory of Belgravia to stand as (Ind.) London mayor. Better than him being front man for the Perthshire Tories I suppose.

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    1. Is that Golum from the Middle Earth?

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    2. Gordumb knows about The Precious. One day he will make another speech to "The Shire".

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    3. He planned an away day for unionists along Hadrian's Wall in support of the Union. Why a wall in northern England I don't know. That failed. Next he was going to erect a Cairn of Unity in support of the Union. That ended up with him dumping a skip full of gravel and rumble in a car park near Gretna Green. Now he's heading for another publicly funded sinecure. Tories love public spending. On themselves.

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  19. If there was to be a new border around N. Ireland, and it was actually agreed with the EU, it would cost English taxpayers a fortune to pay for all the infrastructure and police/enforcement.

    Much cheaper to simply have on down the Irish sea. Otherwise billions from the brexit bus will need to go to the DUP alongside the other billions they're stealing from poor cities of N. England and NHS.

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  20. Couple of points about this, if that's ok?
    1. If you put the numbers you quote into Electoral Calculus's "Scotland" page, then you are dead right about Labour (only Murrary would survive). Three Tories would go, BUT the only Lib Dem gain is that Stephen Gethins (majuority 8?) would lose his seat to the Lib Dems. Perhaps their problem is that even with the sort of swing that 20% suggests, they just have too far to travel?
    2. You are right about the publicity that Jo Swinson would get as a national leader, but is that not a door that swings both ways? If she is having a good, or even a decent campaign, then I suspect you would be right. BUT, if the UK media gets right behind BoJo and rips into anyone who opposes him - most obviously Corbyn, but they will obviously be aware of other threats, including Swinson. In that case, perhaps her nationwide publicity could be more of a handicap?
    3. I find the notion of a 20% Lib Dem vote quite astonishing - not to say that the pollsters have got it wrong, BUT that much of this must be "converts" and I suspect that that part of their vote could well turn out to be "soft" and could abandon it during the course of a campaign. For instance Labour's argument (certainly in England) would be that they are the only ones who can defeat the Tories and a Lib Dem vote therefore is a vote for the Tories. Also, the strong stand she has taken with respect to the A50 letter is not going to appeal to Leave voters in particular. This could all unravel very easily.

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    1. "Perhaps their problem is that even with the sort of swing that 20% suggests, they just have too far to travel?"

      The swing against the Lib Dems wasn't uniform when their vote collapsed in 2015, so unless we're insanely lucky, there's no particular reason to think the swing will be uniform if they make a dramatic recovery. The chances are that on 20% of the vote they'd take seats out of nowhere. Some of the gains might be from the Tories, though.

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    2. I did mention Gordon and Roxburgh in my post @5.33 yesterday. If the LibDems came roaring back in places like that and took most of the Tory vote then you could have a sort of "Bipolar Unionism". (The other possibility being that the SNP could slip through the middle.)
      IF the sub-sample is accurate then the LDs are still slightly below the SNP's Feb 1974 21.9%. Of the seven seats that they then picked up I think that only George Reid's Clackmannan & East Stirling could be said to have come out of the blue.

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  21. If the swing is not uniform, unless we have remarkably detailed information, then we just don't know.
    To my mind the question is whether they have been "forgiven" for their coalition with the Tories 2010-2015. Clearly even in 2017 the answer was "not really". Moreoever, the situation here is more complex than in England, for there a Remain voter (or one who wants close alignment with the EU) who doesnt fancy Corbyn at all, is the Lib Dems (or abstain). Here there is the choice between the Lib Dems and the SNP. In four successive elections for WM and Holyrood (so 2011, 2015, 2016 and 2017) the electorate have made clear their preference is for the SNP who have been no less consistent in their view that the UK should reamin in the EU (though I am sure Swinson would disagree!).
    Lastly, Stone's comment to the effect that he would rather a "no deal" exit than a Corbyn govt is not a good look for them to the extent that it is typical of party opinion.

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  22. It's very simple James. If the SNP continue to put Independence at the bottom of the agenda, with the EU at the top and identity politics in the middle, then remainers might as well vote Lib Dem as the SNP is not doing anything about Independence anyway.

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  23. People are getting pissed off with the SNP trying to save the UK's arse, instead of concentrating on getting Scotland out of the Uk.

    The wings party = bleh!

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  24. James,

    Surely, even from anecdotal evidence, the public in scotland are far more politically attuned than to believe that 'a Britain-wide party led by a Scot' is going to be our saviour..! If that WAS the case please explain the disillusionment with Labour .(lead by Blair & then Brown) in our recent past..? Kindly raise your eyes from the figures for a while friend, maybe have a wander round the streets of either Glasgow or Edinburgh whilst there's a march going on..?

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    1. People who go on marches are a tiny percentage of the population.

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    2. There's also a phrase... "Lies, damned lies and statistics "..?

      Merely a thought friend..

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    3. There's also "lies, damned lies and anecdotes". Election results are statistics too.

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  25. I blame Wings and his followers who have encouraged a divide with his party talk, all this hate on Nicola who is after all, the First Minister of Scotland and HAS gained Remain voters because at least she has been seen to fight to stop Brexit which had she only concentrated on Indy while so many Remainers who were No were expecting their First Minister to try and stop it, it is the Yessers who have abandoned Nicola/SNP and in affect, Indy, without SNP in a majority then we have no Indy so well done to all you who have attacked Nicola and put Stuart of Wings on his kingly pedestal, if Indy is lost,many Yessers should look to themselves as having caused it by their many, many social networking posts against SNP and towards a party that would NEVER get into power in Parliament. I'm sure I am not alone in seeing where the blame lies, Scots shooting Scotland in the foot again because Nicola didn't jump to their command.

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    1. Very well put, Ella. It's a bit like Spoilt Bastard in Viz Comic.

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    2. I think you're overstating that some yessers are in a hurry.
      Disnae mean anti SNP or anti Nicola.
      Keep the heid, the endgame is in sight. By the way is it just me or does it feel a wee bit like hogmanay wi the big march.
      Could be historic. Dinnae be late. Bring yer dug, yer bairns, yersel.

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    3. "all you who have attacked Nicola and put Stuart of Wings on his kingly pedestal"

      Enough about his solid gold toilet.

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  26. Joanna Cherry loves the limelight and her own self importance. The Courts have nothing to do with politics although they love the EU.

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    1. And I'll light her lime if she's offering. We girls need to stick together.

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