Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Unseasonal Elections And Their Effects

Someone suggested on the last thread that I should use the possibility of a December or January election as an excuse to write a blogpost about "Unseasonal Elections And Their Effects".  I think he was probably trolling me, but I'm going to do it anyway.  Never let it be said that I'm not accommodating.

Most general elections in recent decades have taken place in either May or June.  There were a couple of elections outside "peak months" in April 1992 and October 1974, but the last truly "unseasonal" election was in February 1974, and just like the one that's about to come, it took place in the midst of a national crisis.  Edward Heath's Tory government had a perfectly sustainable majority that could have seen him through all the way until mid-1975, but buoyed by favourable opinion polls, he instead took the fateful decision to seek a fresh mandate that would supposedly send a message that it was the elected government that governs, and not the unions.  Polling day was 28th February - officially the last day of winter, although as we all know, early March often feels like an extension of winter in much the same way that early September often feels like an extension of summer.  As polls closed the expectation was still that Heath's gamble would just about pay off, even though Labour had managed to stall his momentum somewhat during the campaign.  But early results showed a surprisingly decent swing to Labour, and although the Tories did narrowly win the popular vote, that translated into a very slight lead for Labour in terms of seats.  After a short delay of a few days, Labour leader Harold Wilson was invited by the Queen to form what was effectively a caretaker government until a new election could be held later in the year.  Crucial to the outcome was the fact that every Ulster Unionist that was elected was opposed to the Sunningdale Agreement, and therefore no longer took the Conservative whip.  If the UUP had still been inside the Tory fold, Heath would almost certainly have clung onto power, albeit at the head of a minority government.  It was also, of course, a big breakthrough election for the SNP - they jumped from two seats to a new all-time high of seven.  And there was a Liberal surge that didn't really produce any meaningful rewards as far as seats were concerned.

Does this tell us that Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems can expect to do well in "unseasonal" elections?  Probably not.  I think the main thing it tells us is that winter elections are likely to only come about as the result of a major crisis, and that the outcome of the election will be determined largely by voters' reaction to that crisis, not by the temperature outside.  Although oddly enough, the only other post-war winter election wasn't (as far as I'm aware, anyway) triggered by an immediate crisis - Labour PM Clement Attlee went to the polls in February 1950, a few months earlier than he needed to, and paid the penalty.  His huge majority from 1945 was all but wiped out, and although he clung on to power for another year and a half, guerilla tactics in the Commons led his exhausted (literally physically exhausted) government to feel they had no choice but to call a snap election in late 1951, which they narrowly lost to Winston Churchill's resurgent Tories.

If you watch election results programmes from the distant past, you'll find the theory always used to be that a "high poll" (ie. a big turnout) favoured Labour, which might lead us to conclude that bad weather in winter that deters people from voting could be good news for the Tories.  But arguably the 1992 result gives the lie to that - there was a bumper turnout of 78% (which hasn't been repeated in any general election since), but Labour did much worse than anticipated.

For my money, the biggest issue with a winter election is the slight danger of freak weather conditions such as the Beast From The East that would make it impossible for many people to vote, and to the best of my knowledge there are no legal provisions to postpone a vote at the last minute because of the weather.  If, in a parallel universe, the Liberal Democrats had gone into coalition with the SNP in 2007 and had agreed to Alex Salmond's preferred date of St Andrew's Day 2010 for an independence referendum, there would have been major disruption because of heavy snow.  There probably would have been controversy for years afterwards about whether the outcome of the vote was really legitimate.

Final thought: if the EU extend Article 50 until 31st January and we need an election before that date to break the deadlock, surely it'll have to be just before Christmas?  I know it's getting very tight if that's going to happen, but the alternative would be either a mid-January election that would require campaigning to take place over the festive period, or a late January election that would be right up against the cliff-edge.

20 comments:

  1. Scottish fascists have been helping the remainers give one billion pounds of hard working British peoples tax each month to the modern EU corrupt regime. Wake up Scots get rid of them.

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  2. Any comment on the two Candanian parties responsible for C16 and enforcing men are women on the unsuspecting populace both suffering at the same election. Fairly obvious warning there to madmentalnicky. Not that she'll bother her arse about it.

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    1. I watched CBC's election results programme last night for about three hours, and as far as I can recall that wasn't mentioned once as a possible explanation for the outcome. Two surprising explanations that were mentioned repeatedly were the Conservatives' failure to have a credible policy for tackling climate change, and Trudeau's U-turn on introducing proportional representation.

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    2. Thats a diversion Young James. CANADA.

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    3. That's because only slightly more than 1% of the population are affected and the rest don't care no matter how loud the tiny percentage shouts

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  3. No. It wasn't an issue.
    Pretty sure winter runs to like March 23 or so. Lol!
    Actual qeustion: people are using polls to show Tories will get 40+ seats. Do you think a universal swing like this will be real or will labor campaign be able to hold seats.

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    1. "Pretty sure winter runs to like March 23 or so."

      Not in the UK - our winter officially runs from 1st December to 28th February.

      I wouldn't have thought there'd be much chance of avoiding a Tory majority if the polls remain as they are now. The question is: will they.

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    2. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/winter/when-does-winter-start

      You are both correct, depending on whether you are talking about the astronomical or meteorological winter. In reality, "winter weather" can occur any time from Nov through to April as mother nature feels no need to be constrained by human concepts of calendars.

      Statistcally an early to mid Dec election is probably less likely to be disrupted by weather than a Jan one, and in either case one in Scotland more likely to be affected by winter weather.

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  4. Forecast.. If Corbyn calls a VOC any time soon The Tories will win big in England as the Brexit party will likely give them a free run.
    SNP to win 50+ seats in Scotland.
    Pressure within English Tories to dump Scotland and their remaining 3 Scots Tories. Overruled by London treasury.
    They arnae daft. They need our resources. Ask Hammond.
    Mail and Express at loggerheads.
    Scotland takes twice in a lifetime
    opportunity. The Baltic states did it.
    So should Scotland.

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  5. Thanks for the article. On current form I wouldn't rule out Christmas & New Year cutting into it in some way. Maybe another Cummings wheeze.
    And they do say that it's a bad omen to have a blond man as your first foot.

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  6. I remember the February 1974 election well. When I went to vote it was snowing. That didn't deter people going to vote as the turnout in my constituency was 81%. Very few could use postal votes then.

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  7. Good article, they often say the Tory vote always stands up no matter the weather. So I hope its beautiful sunny weather
    for the week of any winter general election as the Tories need to fall. If the SNP get over 40 seats they should either use their mandate for an Independence referendum or to start negotiations to desolve this increasingly vile Union.

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  8. Got a feeling that the EU will grant an extension to the about the 20th December. This gives time for an election plus a couple of weeks. Think they will make it clear that any extension past that would be to allow they legislation to clear parliament (if Conservatives get majority) which would be about 6 weeks, or for a referendum (if parliament has a pro ref majority), in which would be a longer extension probably to the spring.

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  9. 50% support for an immediate General Election, 23% against (Yougov)

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    1. Those are the figures for 'Brits'. But still, let's have something that we can land a punch on.

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  10. The Westminster regime needs to be brought down, and brought down as soon as possible. What we - the rest of us - need is a general election to be held as soon as possible afterwards. What we don't need is any longer a campaigning period that is absolutely unavoidable, because there is really nothing to be said that hasn't been said already. Huge numbers of our compatriots are already sticking their fingers in their ears and singing "la la la I can't hear you", and deaving them with even more Brexit messaging will just turn them off more, and could reduce turnout.

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  11. Master -
    It pains me to say this, but I believe we should offer a three-month tactical truce to the Bathists.

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  12. The EU will not decline wan billion courtesy of the new Jocko elites.

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