Friday, October 4, 2019

How would voters react to the Lib Dems in a post-Brexit election?

So there were a few interesting points made in response to the previous post.  Scottish Skier pointed out that the three YouGov subsamples putting the SNP in the 30s had followed on from others that put the SNP at an unusually high level of support, so this could all be normal sampling variation signifying nothing other than that the SNP vote has held steady in the low 40s.  That's possible, although obviously the more consecutive subsamples that put the SNP in the 30s, the more likely it is that something has genuinely changed.  It's also true that the most recent Opinium subsample had the SNP at a very healthy 50%, although unlike YouGov subsamples, that one won't have been correctly structured or weighted.

Someone else suggested the reason for any Lib Dem surge could be their outright "Revoke" stance, which means that if the election doesn't happen until after a No Deal Brexit, support for the Lib Dems could evaporate.  I think that's putting it a bit strongly, although it's true that the Lib Dem offer to the voters would have to be very different in a post-Brexit election, and it remains to be seen how voters would respond to that.  Would they be convinced by a promise to take the UK back into the EU, which might mean years or decades of further turmoil?  Or would they be satisfied by a promise to soften Brexit but not to rejoin the EU?  It's impossible to know at this stage, so yes, the jury is out on how the Lib Dems would fare if the election is delayed beyond Brexit.

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Stuart Campbell has commissioned a poll of 1000 people who plan to vote SNP on the Holyrood constituency ballot.  The early results he's published are of no great interest or significance, but I can't see any reason why he'd have commissioned such a poll unless he's finally decided to test the potential support for a "Wings party" on the regional list ballot.  So I would guess that moment is about to arrive.  Remember to beware of dodgy Archie Stirling/Change UK-type questions that give a wildly distorted impression of how well the party might do.  But with a bit of luck Mr Campbell might have asked a credible question and we'll at last reach the moment of truth.

UPDATE: Unfortunately it looks like Mr Campbell hasn't asked a credible question in his poll - see the comment from Anon at 4:06pm below.  If anything it looks slightly worse than the Archie Stirling and Change UK questions that produced such misleading results.

38 comments:

  1. Campbell's objective is to scupper Independence for us. Now try figuring out why. Wee clue. Threat or bung.

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    1. Deary deary me.

      Someone who encourages their Ulster Unionist bigot civil servant to break hundreds of laws in order to frame their predecessor is a more likely candidate for the scuppering independence accusation.

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  2. I'd find it difficult to understand how the SNP could genuinely be in the 30s if Yes to independence is also genuinely around 50%. Then again, the electorate can be a strange bunch.

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    1. Westminster elections are primarily about England. It doesn't matter what Scottish people vote in the end. England just overules Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland, doing what it wants and ignoring the result with the excuse that 'It is what the British people want'. 2015 showed that no matter what Scots vote, they would simply be ignored because the UK is racist toward Scots. Scots can never have a say in running things; only 'North British' are tolerated as long as they tow the line.

      The main reason SNP share fell last time yet indy% didn't, was that lots of Yes voters (half the population now) didn't turn out for these reasons. That and some desperately tried to influence the English outcome by voting Corbyn as Scots have always done, and failed.

      If they SNP want to be sure of a stonking victory, then need to say Westminster MPs will be withdrawn from Westminster if a Section 30 isn't granted, so ending the union if needed. That will get the Yes vote out as it they see voting in EVEL elections actually has a purpose.

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  3. The LibDems usually fly under the radar in an election.
    Not this time. Swinson's priority is the Tory marginal seats in the English South.
    That's the real reason she won't unite with the other opposition parties.
    Any deal with Corbyn to put the country first is a no no.
    Sleekit or what. They'll have a tough election in Scotland.

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  4. It is estimated that Labour could lose 50% of their seats in England due to their lies over brexit.

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  5. I'm gonnae predict that Wings will break through in unexpected places. Keep your eyes on the foothills of the West Lothian Alps, the Kelty Heartland and the Strathblane Tweetbroker Belt.

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  6. I took the Wings poll. Unfortunately, the only question he asked about the Wings party was something very vague like "Would you consider voting for a new alternative pro-independence party on the list ballot?"

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    1. There's method in his madness in trying to undermine Nicola Sturgeon at every opportunity and influence his following. It won't be too long before he's asking, ''Would you consider voting for a new alternative pro-independence party on the constituency ballot?"

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    2. Stu's trajectory is obvious. His transphobia and the SNP's staunch support for LGB*T* rights has driven him into the arms of the TERFs, which are only one step away from the alt-right (FFS, they're taking money from American Right sources).

      It's a pattern we've seen before, see e.g. Laci Green. I give it less than a year before Stu goes full right-wing whacko.

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    3. I'm actually much closer to Mr Campbell's views on the trans issue than I am to the SNP leadership's views, but I do worry about the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" road that some people are going down - the sudden praise for Liz Truss, for example. And Mr Campbell couching his views in the language of radical feminism always feels a bit phoney. It's more like he started with his basic views and then worked backwards to find a justification that would appeal to the maximum number of people. But who knows, maybe he's been a ardent feminist all along.

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    4. Except self id (which the debate centres around) has nothing to do with feminism. Women's rights (in areas such as safe spaces sports etc) have nothing to do with the GRA; they are all covered in the Equalities act. If people don't think that that act gives women enough 'protection' thats the act they should be campaigning to reform.

      If people don't agree with self ID that's fair enough, but don't try and make out the reason that you don't agree with it is because you are a feminist.

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    5. I took the Wings pill and ended up down Wookey Hole.

      Meanwhile some other people answered the Wings poll question. 33% of them thought they were going to get to vote for the No Right Of Return For Bathists Party.

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    6. You guys need some new tinfoil hats, I don't think the current ones are working.

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    7. Yes, well, we'll discover how close Anon is to the mark if and when you ever publish the relevant question from the poll. But if Anon is right, it's pretty obvious this was not a genuine attempt to accurately measure potential support for a Wings party. Alex Birnie has repeatedly reminded you of the type of question you'd have needed to ask to get meaningful results, so it's not as if the thought has never occurred to you.

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    8. Amazingly enough, when I'm paying thousands of pounds for a poll I'll decide what questions I want answered in it, not what you or whoever the fuck Alex Birnie might be wants.

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    9. Abu Small will crush the Bathist infidels:

      https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1181161049812295680

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    10. I suspect the people who actually funded "your" poll might feel they have some sort of stake in the agenda you're choosing to push with it, but hey-ho. I presume from your evasiveness that you did indeed ask the dodgy question Anon has told us about. One thing you'll find is that if you exercise your right in a free society to step into the political arena, others are equally free to comment on and analyse your actions. I realise that's uncomfortable for you. Tough.

      "What the f**k's my political party got to do with you, you..you VOTER!!!"

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  7. Wan hunner thousand Nat si flag wavers wander around Embra today. The silent two million Unionist voters watch in awe and await the fascists calling for another vote.

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    1. Could the unionist voters see all this from England? just asking.

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    2. The lastest polls have the silent Yes + marching Yes as greater than the unionist voter, silent and rioting (e.g. union square).

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  8. Always there with a question and even thought provoking, great blogg.

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  9. 2 million bigots can't stay silent .. ask uefa!

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    1. Is that Irish/Scottish Catholics you are referring as opposed to real Scots British.

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    2. It was the Irish that founded Dalradia.

      Brits are Anglo Saxons from Germany.

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    3. If you listen to the Irish you will find they landed on the moon before the Yanks.

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  10. I very much doubt there will be a Wings party, if you're a serious person why would you link your name with a foul mouthed internet ranter and join such a party, you'd be tarred with the same brush

    Plus you can't go around pretending you support Independence and rubbishing the leader of the only party who can achieve it
    I'm afraid Stuart Campbell supports his own next crowdfunder for whatever reason he invents

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    1. It's amazing how his many supporters can't see right through him now. They can't see that Campbell would be an anathema to decent Scots and would probably turn many Scots off independence altogether. Part of the Unionist plan? They live in the past and haven't taken into account that people change, change direction, even although it's clear that's what's happened. Campbell is now a principal Unionist flunkey and the dafties are paying through the nose for it.

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    2. Absolutely nobody supports (or ever will) the union or independence 'cos Stuart Campbell'. What a ridiculously stupid notion. Same applies for every single individual. You'd need to be at least FM/PM before you start to any real influence personally (in terms of whether folk like you personally or not).

      That's just not how things work.

      I'm not a big fan of Patrick Harvie, but it would be utterly ludicrous for me to base by support for indy on that.

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    3. Although I'll add that unionists have done a good job recently in pushing people to independence by highlighting it's not a 'cult' where everyone likes Stuart Campbell. Thanks to unionists pointing out the SNP/Campbell divide, more folk are moving to indy safe in the knowledge its a broad church with quite different opinions.

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  11. Must have been close to that number yesterday.

    http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world

    The 3.5% rule: How a small minority can change the world

    In 1986, millions of Filipinos took to the streets of Manila in peaceful protest and prayer in the People Power movement. The Marcos regime folded on the fourth day.

    In 2003, the people of Georgia ousted Eduard Shevardnadze through the bloodless Rose Revolution, in which protestors stormed the parliament building holding the flowers in their hands.

    Earlier this year, the presidents of Sudan and Algeria both announced they would step aside after decades in office, thanks to peaceful campaigns of resistance.

    In each case, civil resistance by ordinary members of the public trumped the political elite to achieve radical change.

    There are, of course, many ethical reasons to use nonviolent strategies. But compelling research by Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University, confirms that civil disobedience is not only the moral choice; it is also the most powerful way of shaping world politics – by a long way.

    Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change...


    3.5% of the total Scottish electorate is 150k. If not in Edinburgh, then easy all the individual marchers from all the marches across Scotland of late.

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  12. Opinium UK, Scots sample:
    48% SNP
    25% Con
    11% Lab
    9% brexit
    7% Lib

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    1. Libs down to 15% in UK, 8% behind Lab and 23% behind Con. Are the vowels coming off the bandwagon?

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  13. The Scottish Nat si fascists should be streaking ahead according to them over brexit, yet the Unionists are holding their own.

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  14. I'd be interested to hear what polling questions would satisfy James Kelly regarding the Wings party proposition - seems to me that his mind is made up that it's a bad idea and that's that, which doesn't seem to be a credible view for someone who wants to be regarded as a credible number cruncher?

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    1. I have to say that's an incredibly stupid comment given that I've already posted the question wording that would "satisfy me". You could have discovered that in a matter of seconds by skimming through the recent posts on this blog, but nope, you just wanted to go off on one.

      The question that would produce a meaningful result is as follows...

      If these parties stood on the Scottish Parliament regional list ballot, which party would you vote for?

      Scottish National Party (SNP)
      Labour
      Conservatives
      Liberal Democrats
      Brexit Party
      Greens
      Wings Over Scotland
      UKIP
      Solidarity
      SSP

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