Today's much-hyped Welsh poll from YouGov didn't disappoint: it shows Plaid Cymru taking the lead for the first time, and they've done it on both the constituency and the regional list ballots. That said, as you can see from the percentage changes below, they weren't far off the lead in the previous poll, so perhaps the fact that this historic moment has arrived shouldn't be such a surprise. In fact, on the regional list vote it's the Brexit Party they've overtaken and not Labour!
Welsh Assembly constituency ballot:
Plaid Cymru 24% (n/c)
Labour 21% (-4)
Brexit Party 19% (+2)
Conservatives 19% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+3)
Welsh Assembly regional list ballot:
Plaid Cymru 23% (+1)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (+6)
Brexit Party 17% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+5)
Greens 4% (-4)
Although the Welsh Assembly uses the same Additional Member System that we use to elect the Scottish Parliament, the ratio between constituency and list members is slanted much more towards constituency members, and that of course was done deliberately by Labour to make the system less proportional and to give themselves more seats than they would otherwise be entitled to. It's certainly doing the trick in this instance: the seats projection shows that Labour would remain the biggest party despite losing the popular vote. However, they would only have a little more than a quarter of the seats, leaving Plaid Cymru with scope to lead a coalition that freezes out Labour. On past form, though, Adam Price might actually prefer a coalition with Labour, which would leave Plaid as the junior partner in a government still led by Mark Drakeford.
Predictably, London commentators (and Duncan Hothersall) are missing the point entirely by focussing on the Westminster results from the poll, which show a narrow Tory lead. As I pointed out last night, that isn't actually unprecedented - the Tories have led in Wales before, and as it's a slim lead it wouldn't be surprising if it disappears once the Boris honeymoon is over.
* * *
I want to say something about all the chatter on social media (and indeed in the comments section of this blog) about how Jo Swinson will "have to look for an English seat" because she's "on course to lose East Dunbartonshire". I really do think this is making us look a bit silly. Jo Swinson will not be looking for a new seat in England or anywhere else for the simple reason that she already has a safe one. Yes, I know that the SNP won it in 2015, but there are three crucial differences between then and now: 1) the SNP were on an insanely high 50% of the national vote, 2) the Lib Dems were at a historically low ebb, and 3) Swinson didn't have the traditional leader's bonus that she can now expect. Even with all those factors working against the Lib Dems in 2015, they only lost the seat very narrowly.
I'm sure the SNP will throw the kitchen sink at East Dunbartonshire when the election is called, but that will not really be with a view to winning the seat. They'll be looking for a respectable result in a high profile contest, and to demonstrate that even the constituency of the Lib Dem leader is not a no go area.
England planning for direct rule of N. Ireland against the will of the people there. That would be a clear breach of the gfa. The backstop must be applied and the current status quo maintained while talks continue on restoring stormont
ReplyDeleteIf full EU free trade and movement don't apply post October 31st in the provine, that equals a new hard border and the gfa broken.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-northern-ireland-direct-rule-dominic-raab-boris-johnson-a9024801.html
Direct rule is required because Sinn Fein Catholic IRA have abandoned the Belfast Agreement and are no doubt planning another war to fight for the EU this time round. Working class Protestants no doubt the initial target before the British Army move back in.
DeleteGet yourself over to NI And ask the people what they think. The last poll about religion over 50% said they were not religous.
DeleteExactly Purves so why does the Nat si Skier keep referring to the so called good Friday Agreement when it is the Belfast Agreement. Skier is a PAPE.
DeleteI hope the British army huv mair guts than the PM. He runs away oot the backdoor at the first sign of trouble. The Irish and all the other Europeans will be trembling in their boots at the prospect of Boris the brave.
DeleteBoris, like May and every failure in history, leads fae the back (door).
"Gae oot the back way" sez Nicola - "Awrighty-ho" sez Boris, and does.
Delete"The twat fell for it! " as some one else has said before me.
Re your comment about Swinson, two things.
ReplyDeleteFirst, is it fair to describe 50% as "insanely high"? Yes it was a high watermark, but as Brexit proceeds while it might not be attained again, there could be a growing tendency toward that level of support?
Secondly, how much was Swinson - as opposed to the Tory candidate in a good many seats - the beneficiary of the trend for the Unionist vote to get behind (if not completely) a single candidate? As that constituency (I hope) dwindles, and as voters realise that the Lib Dems are about as powerless to restrain BoJo as anyone might her advantage not be eroded.
I suspect you will be proven right and she will hold her seat, but given the above, allied to the scrutiny she will come under (particularly her voting record as a govt minister), it might be a bit more difficult than you seem to consider.
Yes, 50% *is* insanely high in a four-party system. In fact it would be insanely high in a three-party system, as can be seen from the fact that no UK party has achieved such a feat in many decades. Some of Swinson's vote is made up of natural Tories voting tactically against the SNP, but the only hope there is that a lot of them might be hardline Brexiteers who think Brexit is more important than stopping indyref2. But I suspect, in fact, that many East Dunbartonshire Tories are Remain voters. It's that sort of constituency.
DeleteUnder the kind of politics that we are used to, you are dead right. BUT just now we don't have the kind of politics that we are used to - it is much more volatile for one thing, and in all sorts of ways.
DeleteCouple of numbers. First compared to 2010 Nicholson increased the SNP vote by more than 400 (four hundred) percent. Even when he lost 2 years later, it was still 300 percent more than the 2010 vote. Clearly it's a new world.
Secondly, if you go through the votes for that constituency - we can only go back to 2010 - Swinson has a remarkably stable vote, ranging between 18551 when she won in 2010, up to 21023 when she won in 2017. The difference in the other two elections is only about 2000. Nicholson's vote on the other hand fell by 6409 between the two elections, and the turnout fell by 3%. How much was the loss down to failure to get the vote out.
I live in the neighbouring West Dunbartonshire constituency which saw Martin Docherty's vote decline by more than 11000. About 8 o'clock on election night, both my wife and myself got clearly panicked phone call from the SNP asking if we had voted. Turnout fell from 73.1 to 65.9!
It might not be the answer, or certainly not the whole answer, but getting your vote to the polling station is important particularly when all the Unionist parties are ganging up against you and their vote to some extent getting behind a single candidate.
It's not really Jo Swinson losing her seat that is her problem but the fact that the leader of a party will not have a vote on many areas of government due to EVEL. This is a leader who will have no real voice on matters concerning England. Why would anyone in England choose the LibDems when their leader is silent, a bit like voting Ruth Dividson on the idea she has some inflence at Westminster.
ReplyDeleteWhile she's got a pretty decent claim on englishness (I understand she'd qualify for the footie team by parentage and civic nationally by current address), you can bet your bottom brexit crashed £ the right wing english press would treat her like jock and give her the full 'Scots are thieves' 2015 treatment if she tried to stand again for a Scottish seat. She's a remainer too, which would double the anti-jock message. How could a thieving junkie scot MP dare to stop England's brexit?
DeleteSwinson hasn't hope in hell of furthering her career unless she does what most unionists do and heads for England. Hell, she's already living there!
England's brexit has taken the value of the Scots pound to its lowest in 28 months. Won't be long before it plunges past the Euro. Just in time for the food and medicine shortages.
ReplyDeleteThe 'golden age' begins.
Yes your methodone will cost more. It may save a few Jock life's.
Deletemmm is this the same plunge past the the Euro you were predicting back in the summer of 2017
Delete"I see the £ is hitting new lows.
Crashed to 1.11 euros now; back to October 2016 levels.
Parity with the euro probably not far off.
Of course that means more inflation"
Of course that never has happened along with inflation falling since then too.
All comments made about brexit by the Nat sis are about total capitulation to the EU and selling out Scotland.
ReplyDeleteYour leader is big chicken who just ran away from a meeting with sturgeon.
DeleteBrave sir Boris ran away...
Back door Boris the brave.
ReplyDeleteThe man is truly Churchillian in stature.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1155875222228230144
Nick Eardley
@nickeardleybbc
Boris Johnson has just left Bute House through the back door
6:18 pm · 29 Jul 2019 from Edinburgh,
Yougov. Whether a no deal brexit would make indy more likely.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1155899152703922177
Scots:
50% More likely
19% Equally likely
14% Less likely
Seems backdoor Boris the brave has it wrong.
Worth remembering that some recent polling evidence suggests as many as 60% of voters could vote "yes" to independence if we leave the EU with no deal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49083746
New IRA say they want to end British rule in Oirland and begin EU rule.
ReplyDelete'EU rule' is of course chosen freely, unlike British rule.
DeleteSo an admission at last!
DeleteYour grasp of English is pretty poor. Pity Patel would send you back to where you came from.
DeleteDifficult - I think they've closed most of the asylums down . . .
DeleteGoes in like Oliver Cromwell. Gets well telt by Nicola - leaves by back door.
ReplyDeleteThat's back door Boris.
Like sandwich shop Murphy he'll never live it doon.
They did not want to run over any Irish.
DeleteWasn't the sandwich shop Iain Gray?
ReplyDeleteNo. I think the sandwich shop was Greigs.
DeleteEngland's brexit has now pushed the £ to its lowest level against a basket of major currencies since at least 1983 (as far as the data goes back).
ReplyDeleteBrexit is literally making us all poorer right before our eyes.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-effective-exchange-rates/GBP-history
News saying folks are getting as low as 85 euro cents for a pound at airports.
In a few months, tariffs of 30-40% will start hitting our industries. Farming will be decimated in a matter of weeks...
Can someone enlighten me how they only go back to 1980's. Are they just lazy? Pound was 2 to 1 to Dollar when I was a kid. Then 1.5 to 1. From intervention in mid late 80's to recently. Also, why is the Scottish pound ?? I thought it was pegged to Brit. You can use either everywhere we tourists go?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteYes, the Scots £ is pegged to the English £ (all notes issued are actually backed by the same value in English notes held by the bank). You can get N. Irish £s too.
DeleteI've only ever had a Scots note refused in England.
There is no Scots £ or English £. There is one currency GBP (Sterling). Through various acts certain commercial banks are aloud to issue banknotes as well as a central bank. But these notes are still sterling, its just that the commercial banks are underwriting them (in gold or GBP) rather than a central bank.
DeleteOf course the simplest way to show there is not 'Scots pound' is the fact that £1 is 100p, the Scots pound was £1 to 240p having never been decimalised.
DeleteThe English pound was likewise 240p pre-decimalisation.
DeleteIf you ask to change a Scots £ into pennies these days, you'll only get 100 p. Same for an English pound.
Yup it got decimalised (although it is not the English pound persay its the GBP).
DeleteNo if the Scots pound was still a used currency you would get 240p because that is what makes up a Scots pound (it was never decimlaised since it was no longer used).
Do you have a picture of 'Great British Pound'? I've never seen a note with that written on it.
Deleteyou mean pound sterling yea just google GBP (thats the ISO code for sterling)
Deletei'm sure you have the ISO code for the pound Scots to hand, cant seem to find it, or any reference to it in any list of wordwide currencies, i'm sure you will have that to hand as well
Also, the pound getting near a dollar US is very bad . We are lazy. If it gets near, Americans will insist it is the same. Trust me. We will not give people an extra ten cents . Americans will just round it up to next dollar and make you take it. Canadians do it here whenever their dollar hits 90 cents. It can HAMMER small businesses.
ReplyDeleteYou sound like a miserable Jock peeling an orange in his pocket and painting smarties on his palm.
DeleteNew Yorker Boris had to climb on top of wheelie bins to get over the back wall of Bute House, like something out of the Krypton Factor meets Top Cat.
DeleteWas it a recycle wheelie bin. If not we will have to report it to the wheeliebinombinsman.
Delete"Back Door Boris."
DeleteTroubled MP Ross Thomson must be thrilled.
Thats a bit below the belt.
DeleteA bit like troubled Thomson's hands.
Delete