No disrespect to Stephen Bush, but something he said in all apparent seriousness in the New Statesman today made me laugh out loud. He suggested that the big target for the breakaway Independent Group is to reach 36 recruits, because that would mean overtaking the SNP as the third largest group in the Commons, giving them speaking rights at PMQs and "longrun implications for the amount of attention they receive from broadcasters". Gosh yes. If the precedent of the SNP is anything to go by, third-party status for the Independent Group would win them two invitations to appear on Question Time per year, plus their own stalker in an orange jacket. These are prizes worth fighting for.
Even at the upper end of the rumoured number of defections, it's hard to see the new group quite reaching 36, so there's no reason for the SNP to panic just yet. I suppose if they reached 25, they could theoretically form a marriage of convenience with the 11 Liberal Democrats to become the third-biggest group, but I suspect the Lib Dems would prefer to retain their independence for the time being. In the early 1980s, the attraction for the Liberals of going into an alliance with the Labour defectors to the SDP was summed up by a succinct exchange between Liberal leader David Steel and one of his colleagues -
"David, the SDP know nothing about doorstep campaigning."
"But they know about government."
That logic doesn't hold in the current situation, because thanks to the disastrous coalition of 2010-15 there is actually more ministerial experience among the Lib Dem parliamentary party than there is among the Gang of Seven. Vince Cable as a former Business Secretary easily outranks the insufferable Chris Leslie, who appears to have been the only one of the Independent Group to have reached full ministerial rank during the Blair/Brown years, and who never got anywhere near to Cabinet level. (As an amusing aside, Leslie claimed in his statement yesterday to have been a Labour member of parliament for "more than three decades". He was actually 16 years old three decades ago. No wonder he only lasted a few months as Shadow Chancellor, a position in which good mental arithmetic is presumably at something of a premium. The truth is that he became an MP for the first time 22 years ago, ousting the equally insufferable Sir Marcus Fox, and subsequently lost his seat in 2005, ironically due to the fading popularity of the Blairite centrism that he reckons people are crying out for. He then went on a chicken run and got back into parliament with a safe seat in 2010, but that means he's actually been an MP for a combined total of less than 17 years. Novice...)
We can also safely dismiss keen letter-writer Mike Smithson's characteristically eccentric notion that Caroline Lucas of the Greens will be throwing in her lot with the Independent Group. She agrees with them on Brexit, but on very little else.
Mehdi Hasan said on Twitter that the only question the Independent Group should be asked by the media is whether they will support a May-led Tory government or a Corbyn-led Labour government. That's not entirely fair, because the precedent of the SDP shows that it is possible for a breakway party of sufficient size to take the lead in national opinion polls. It happened for a sustained period in 1981-2, and if it hadn't been for the Falklands War, it's conceivable that the SDP would have succeeded in their aim of breaking the two-party system. But it looks like the Independent Group will need to build up a lot more critical mass if they are to have any chance of emulating their predecessor. A new Survation poll reveals that, in spite of voters having more sympathy for the splitters than for the Labour leadership, they generally stick with the established parties when offered a "new centrist party" as an option. Just 8% say they would vote for the new party, and it is the Liberal Democrats rather than Labour who suffer the most.
The poll brings home how difficult it's going to be for pollsters to work out how to deal with the new group. I would guess if there's a general election within the next few weeks, the Independent Group would only defend the seats they already hold, and perhaps put up candidates in a small number of other carefully targeted constituencies. Whereas if the election is more than a year away, they might by then have become a fully-fledged party with a full slate of candidates. So at what point will pollsters be justified in routinely offering them as an option in national polls? I'm not quite sure.
Polls are becoming lamentable. According to Sky News 34% think Corbyn is an antisemite. 26% do not think he is antisemite. 42% do not know. The real fact is is that Jeremy Corbyn has never said he is antisemite. Those with an interest will use polls to manipulate uninformed people some who may have a predudice to get the answer they want. The anti Labour socialist bandwagon rolls on.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe if you didn't go around calling the majority of the Scottish population 'Nat-sis' etc, folk might be more friendly to you and Labour mates.
DeleteI've personally never called Corbyn or Labour anti-Semitic, because I don't believe it's true. I don't recall the SNP ever using this as a stick to beat Labour with either for that very reason.
However, when Labour turn around and call me / other Scots 'anti-English Nat-sis' simply for being Scottish, my nationality, forgive me if I struggle to be sympathetic about the Labour anti-Semite smear thing.
My main complaint about Corbyn is his hypocrisy for supporting indy or reunification for every country in the world except Scotland, particularly as he doesn't even live here, but in London.
The Irish side of me loves Corbyn. :-)
Delete#Reunification
Your Irish side, was it your backside? I have been reading about the Irish Franciscans and the pogroms against the Jews.
DeleteLike, let's not pretend that the resident dribbler represents 'Labour'.
DeleteOn the subject of ‘Brit-Scots’.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24302914
In England and Wales, the generation least likely to have ticked the box marked "British" to describe their national identity are those who lived through the war and watched the sun set on the British Empire…
…Winston Churchill may have attended the famous public school, but it is Harrow's ethnically diverse population that explains the borough's powerful sense of Britishness.
Outside London, the most British local authorities are Slough, Leicester, Luton and Birmingham - all places with high levels of ethnic diversity.
…In Wales, though, children and young people are less likely to describe themselves as British than their parents - about 16% compared to 18%. One possible explanation for this may be the introduction of compulsory Welsh language teaching in schools.
In England, the local authorities in which higher proportions of people simply ticked English as their national identity tend to be on the coasts, particularly on the eastern [Brexit voting] side of the country. The place that tops the table for English identity is Castle Point - the local authority that includes Canvey Island…
…Figures for Scotland, released last week, reveal that the Scottish-only identity is strongest in the central belt. More than 70% of people describe themselves that way in West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and East Ayrshire.
Overall in Scotland, 62% of people chose Scottish as their sole identity with 8% choosing British only and a further 18% ticking both.
In England, the English voted Leave, while the Brits voted Remain. In Scotland, the Brits voted Leave while the Scots voted Remain.
Awkward to say the least.
Still, GWC being a proud member of England’s* ethnically diverse population is something at least.
----
*In Scotland & Wales, ethnic minorities tend to identify more strongly as Scottish and Welsh rather than British.
http://www.ethnos.co.uk/pdfs/9_what_is_britishness_CRE.pdf
Scottish skier you in the Jocko Nat si party probably have some antisemites and Jew haters although if they are thick enough to vote for the Jocko Nat sis do not know what a semite is, historically. It is easy to pretend to be blinkered and in denial.
ReplyDelete"It is easy to pretend to be blinkered and in denial."
DeleteCordelia is an expert...
To be honest the most worrying aspect i see these days is that the way 'Nazi/Fascist' or 'communist' thrown around so easily.
ReplyDeleteOf course most people are drawing comparisons to Soviet Russia/ Nazi Germany, whos policies resulted in the deaths of 10s of millions of people.
No political party, no matter how much you may not like their policies are going implement policies so barbaric. Calling someone a Nazi because they support Brexit or Communist because the support the far left trivialises the horrors that those regimes subjugated on people.
It was the NAZI policy that resulted in the death of millions.
DeleteYou sound similar to a holocaust deniar. The Soviets did not employ industrial type factories to commit genocide they liberated some death camps.
Yea Stalin was just an all around nice guy...
DeleteEstimates on the number of deaths brought about by Stalin's rule are hotly debated by scholars in the field of Soviet and Communist studies.[65][66] The published results vary depending on the time when the estimate was made, on the criteria and methods used for the estimates and sources available for estimates. Some historians attempt to make separate estimates for different periods of the Soviet history, with casualties for the Stalinist period varying from 8 to 61 million.[45][67][68] Several scholars, among them Stalin biographer Simon Sebag Montefiore, former Politburo member Alexander Nikolaevich Yakovlev and the director of Yale's "Annals of Communism" series Jonathan Brent, put the death toll at about 20 million.[af][ag][ah][ai][o][aj][ak] In the latest 2007 revision of his book The Great Terror, Robert Conquest estimates that while exact numbers will never be certain, the Communist leaders of the Soviet Union were responsible for no fewer than 15 million deaths.[al]
Stalin was not a good guy but did not have a policy to set up factories for mass genocide of Jews and the disabled. Seems you are deliberately avoiding the NAZI crimes Adam! Bit of sympathy for the Nazis Adam!
DeleteApart from the bit were I say Soviet Russia/ Nazi Germany, whos policies resulted in the deaths of 10s of millions of people. you mean ;)
DeleteA Gulag denier! A communist David Irving! Or as Stalin himself would have said, "a useful idiot"
ReplyDeleteMaybe i don't fully understand things... But the so called independent group, don't they need to officially register as a party? Even defend their seats before they can be considered an official group/party of their own. after all they might dwindle away or move on elsewhere you'd think that they just can't clump together all of a sudden and try to move into 3rd place without rules and protocols being followed?
ReplyDeleteUntil they form a party then they are just a group of Independents, there could be 100 of them, but they would not move into 3rd place. Rightly or wrongly you do not have to defend your seat in a by-election if you leave the party you were in when elected.
DeleteWhat a relief the Catholic priests are shaggin, raping Nuns in India. Giving the boys a brief respite. Oops ma bum is sore.
ReplyDeleteCordelia there, sharing way too much of its bizarre fantasy life.
DeleteBrilliant decision to send islamist to Islam land. Her family should follow her. Maybe other terrorists should be considered like IRA bum boys who think they have the upper hand against Britain. On brexit the bum boys should be excluded from the UK as they have reneged on the Belfast Agreement.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, Cordelia laughed along with the furniture, called the cat a Nazi Remainerand vomited Toilet Duck down itself.
DeleteIt then fell into its favourite cupboard, clutched its knees and sobbed itself to sleep out if unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon and Flute Band Boy.
GWC....Mr Allcroft......please stick to playing with trams.
ReplyDeleteCho Cho.
DeleteI see 3 Tories have now joined the British Independent MP Group.
ReplyDeleteThe only way to counter this is for pro-Brexit Lab and Con to form a coalition of English nationalist pro-Engxit unity.
We need some Scottish representation as well. Over one million of us voted to leave the EU. Not one Nat si MP gives us a say but this is typical of Nat sis. The Scots voted to remain in the UK and the Nat sis ignore us.
DeleteMost people ignore you, I've noticed. :(
DeleteThe problem you Nat sis have is you are not prepared to accept my fair, balanced, truthful and unbiased comments.
DeleteThat's the funniest thing the tiresome, lying old Britnazi has ever posted, and there have been some corkers.
DeleteLabour is going to have to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Tories and vote for May's deal, or it will be no deal and Labour will carry the can for it as much as the Tories. Labour never opposed the EUref, both partites voted for Article 50, and Corbyn's cabinet backs brexit.
ReplyDeleteThe rats are starting to abandon the ship now that the iceberg looms large.
I fully support Corbyn on the EU, he was never for this corrupt org. Pity about him rubbing shoulders with terrorist groups. I note a Tory has said that Sinn Fein has broken the Belfast Agreement.
DeleteI do like the like a good laugh skier. Did you watch all the right wing Blairites and Tory defectors gather behind the right wing Tartan Tories. Ye couldnae make it up.
And so Cordelia descends into another heroically drunken night of pretending to be a socialist.
DeleteIts ultra-right-wing ravings are comedy gold.
Aye Anonymous knob when faced with the usual brain close down reverts to the Cordelia booze routine. At least a prick can be useful on occasion except for yourself who spluttered doon yer maws leg.
DeleteI think I made the tiresome, drunken old Britnazi cry.
DeleteCordelia is the political equivalent of an appendix - completely useless and full of poison.