Saturday, October 27, 2018

SNP with 12-point Holyrood lead in new Survation poll

I woke up this morning to people fretting about a 'bad' Survation poll in the Daily Record, although in fact it's not as bad as you'd think if you inhaled the Record's reporting.  For some unknown reason (well, we can probably guess), they've used percentage changes from the Holyrood election of 2016 rather than from the last comparable poll - giving the misleading impression of a very sharp and sudden drop in SNP support.  They don't actually make clear whether this is an online or telephone poll, but assuming it's online (the vast majority of Record-commissioned polls are), here are the correct figures with percentage changes measured from the last online Survation poll that was published around three weeks ago -

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 38% (-5)
Conservatives 26% (+2)
Labour 25% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 32% (n/c)
Labour 23% (n/c)
Conservatives 23% (+2)
Greens 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)

Westminster:

SNP 36% (-5)
Conservatives 27% (+1)
Labour 26% (+2)

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 45% (-2)
No 55% (+2)

Although the changes aren't as dramatic as the Record are making out, the SNP are significantly down on two of three ballots (strangely they're not down at all on the Holyrood list).  It's hard to make much sense of that, because three polls were published at the time of the SNP conference (two Survation, one Panelbase), which all agreed that the SNP had come through the reporting of the Alex Salmond story unscathed.  So if there has been a setback, it must have occurred over the course of October, and I can't think of any obvious recent trigger for a 5-point drop.  My own instinct is that this is much more likely to be random sampling variation - ie. within the standard margin of error, the sample Survation interviewed this time may have been a bit SNP/Yes-light.  We'll have to wait for the next poll or two to find out for sure.

There's an absolutely nonsensical section of the Record article which observes that a small swing from SNP to Labour since last year's Westminster election would see Labour gain eight seats, pushing the Tories back into third place.  That's true as far as it goes, but the rather more salient point is that the Record's own poll shows that no such swing has occurred - the SNP's lead over Labour stands at ten points, exactly the same as June 2017.  On a uniform swing, the SNP would lose no seats at all to Labour, and would gain one seat (Stirling) from the Tories.  And if the Record are so keen to go off on a tangent and talk about hypothetical swings that were not detected by the poll, it's mysterious that they neglected to mention that a small swing from Labour to SNP could see the SNP gain six seats, practically wiping Labour out once again.

As ever, the SNP and Green showings on the Holyrood list have to be regarded as extremely suspect.  A relatively low SNP list vote, and a relatively high Green list vote, seem to be standard 'house effects' of Survation's online polling - perhaps because the question characterises the list vote as the "second" vote, thus giving some respondents the false impression they are being asked for a second preference vote.  Nevertheless, given the direction of travel elsewhere in the poll, it's perhaps surprising (and reassuring) that the SNP haven't slipped down to the 20s on the list.

John Curtice is quoted in the Record piece as saying that the poll shows the "fragility" of the SNP's position.  But in fact, the Holyrood seats projection puts the pro-independence parties just four seats short of retaining their majority.  It's pretty remarkable that they could be so close to doing that when the SNP are in the 30s on both ballots - which arguably illustrates the in-built strength of the SNP's position, providing they can retain a handsome lead over the second-placed party on the constituency vote.  So you can look at the situation in more than one way.

UPDATE: Survation have belatedly tweeted about the poll, and have done so in this annoyingly ambiguous way -

New Scotland polling with fieldwork 18th-21st October in today's @Daily_Record. (Changes vs 3rd-5th Oct*)

Westminster voting intention;
CON 27% (nc)
LAB 26% (nc)
LD 7% (+1)
SNP 36% (-1)
AP 3% (nc)

*telephone

Does the placing of the asterisk indicate that they are making a potentially misleading comparison between an online poll (this one) and a telephone poll from earlier in the month?  Or does it mean that the new poll was conducted by telephone as well?  I hope it's not the latter, because if so it would mean that half of the above blogpost is based on a false premise, but we'll find out when the datasets are published...

51 comments:

  1. Chances that any of the drift (to Lab more than the Tories, here) is caused by relative inaction of SNP re indyref and nothing definitive coming out of the conference? I ask this knowing that anyone angry at that shouldn't be thinking 'the best thing to do now is vote Labour to solve it' but, you know, voters arrive at choices for multitudes of reasons (many of them odd).

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    1. I wonder this too. Some high profile SNP politicians paraphrasing May's 'now is not the time' might be draining some SNP support. Would a reduction in SNP support look like a drift to Labour once the 'don't knows' are removed?

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    2. The Don't Knows have already been removed.

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  2. Hmmm. This is quite mysterious, as you said there was no apparent reason for a big drop. Indy support has also fallen below 46% for the first time in a very long while after get a few at 47%. I think you may be right that this is simply sampling variation: Maybe the last poll was a bit SNP heavy and this one is a bit SNP light, with the truth more in between. But we will need to wait for another poll before we know for sure.

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  3. Looks like another 'absolutely nothing happening' poll to me. That largely describes all UK VI polling since 2017.

    That's because for most voters, absolutely nothing has really changed since then, and they have no need to make a decision.

    VI polling only ever tells us what's going to happen as voting day gets really close. Ask Theresa May.

    The polling that's of interest is that Scots think Holyrood alone should decide on indy by a whopping 66%. If brexit goes ahead they'll likely vote Yes, and if it's a hard brexit, that's looking like dead cert. N. Irish are seeing reunification as inreasingly what to go for while the English are happy jettison these two if it helps their brexit ship sail off into the wild blue berg field.

    The main movement in polling is Scots moving to 'UK doing a shit job negotiating brexit and so we're all screwed'. That's shown huge shifts in the past year or so. Even with that, folks are still thinking the worse can't surely happen?

    It's all going to come crashing down soon enough though. The brexit fantasy can be sustained no longer. Hell, even the disastrous 'no deal' is going belly up as negotiations to join the WTO hit the buffers. It's like the titanic not just sinking, but spectacularly exploding on the way down.

    Hell, even if brexit is stopped now, England is on it's knees. They'll have to accept Schengen and no rebate etc. Maybe even sign up to the Euro. England has destroyed goodwill with insults and telling people from the very countries it wants trade deals with to 'go back to where you came from!'. There's no way out of this hole, and it's a deep, shit filled one.


    Enjoy the next few months as the crap is heading for the fan at a phenomenal rate.

    The average person on the street doesn't really understand all of this though. They know it's not great, but don't really get how bad things are. Blame the English remain campaign for saying the world would explode immediately if the vote was leave. The vote was always the iceberg just cutting the hole. The water has been rushing in beneath people's feet for 2 years now. The ship's finally about to roll over and go down.

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    1. "England is on it's knees. They'll have to accept Schengen ... Maybe even sign up to the Euro."

      Oh come on - this kind of baseless twaddle reminds me of Unionist scaremongering about Scottish independence.

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    2. I concur. Hysterical piffle.

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    3. Donald Cross AKA GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia.

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  4. For the last year, the SNP have been 41+/-3% for Holyrood CVI. Statistically, this poll isn't even something of an outlier, but mundanely within +/-3% variance.


    What is remarkable is how high the SNP vote is compared to mid term 2011-16. Some polls even put Labour ahead back then. Suggests 'peak SNP' is not with us yet, at least for Holyrood CVI.

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  5. They used the YES % of 45% to suggest that Brexit appears not to have had any effect on support for independence. Of course they used the standard question. But the question asked by the Sturvation poll 4 weeks ago, asked about voting intentions on a no-deal scenario, and it was 52% YES. The record playing games for their own agenda.

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    1. I wonder what the Yes would be for No deal if folk understand that would mean we're not even in the WTO.

      Argies will be looking for a 'Falkland's backstop' before they let the UK in.

      ---

      http://www.cityam.com/267128/members-block-uks-bid-fast-track-its-post-brexit-entry-into

      "Members block the UK's bid to fast-track its post-Brexit entry into the World Trade Organisation"

      The news means the UK will face a longer path towards using the WTO, by entering a lengthy period of negotiations.

      That means the process of joining the WTO could take years, Reuters said.

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    2. Except that the UK is a member:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organization

      of course an Independent Scotland would not be a member....

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    3. As part of the EU it's a member. Now that the UK is leaving the EU it needs to join the WTO anew. Hence the negotiations and veto by 20 states so far to the UK's application.

      Please tell me you didn't vote in 2016 thinking the UK would just be in the WTO without having to apply?

      ----

      http://www.cityam.com/267128/members-block-uks-bid-fast-track-its-post-brexit-entry-into

      "(Liam) Fox did not name which of the 164 WTO states objected to the UK’s entry being fast-tracked, but it means that other countries can now ask Britain to make concessions in order to join.

      While the UK is already a member of the WTO, its membership is tied up with the EU’s, and it must have its own agreement in place to remain a member once it leaves the bloc."

      ---

      We're heading towards a cliff edge Brexit and WTexit. UK will have to bend over and take it from just about every country in the world concessions-wise going forward. Telling everyone to 'Fuck off - we don't want you smelly furriners coming to our country' while tearing up all your trade agreements isn't really the cleverest thing to do.

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  6. Knickerless has claimed the UK signed a backstop agreement with the EU regarding Ireland during December 2017 and is now renaging on this.

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    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its crush on Yaxley-Lennon

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  7. 11..12 years down the road since winning Holyrood in 2007, and in the middle of a Scottish Parliamentary term, these strike me as decent mid-term numbers. If we were 6 months away from voting then some anxiety *might* be in order, but 30 months out? Not at all. Jeez, Corbyn is up against the most incompetent Tory govt and leader that any of us can imagine and regular polling see's them consistently trailing. UK Labour should be pissing their pants about a UK election in the next 6-12 months, not the SNP about a poll 30 months away :-)

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    1. Labour is behind because they have been taken over by a left wing clique of odds and sods.
      The Tories are hardly incompetent but certainly divided over brexit. The worse scenario for the Scottish Nat sis is that a trade agreement is struck with the EU. The Nat sis if they pursue independence and joining the EU will have to explain away the annual costs to the Scottish taxpayer. The present contribution to the EU is paid for by the UK taxoayer. Perhaps the Nat sis could tell us what Scotland on its own would pay the EU gin swigging gravy train!

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    2. Certainly less than the UK creams off our takings. Perhaps we should be told the real figure of our worth...including Scottish goods going through English ports which are not attributed to us.

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    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries isn't interested in discussion, but in provocation.
      That's why it calls us Nazis.

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  8. Well, Ireland looks even more modern and progressive compared to the backward, religious nutter DUP governed Draconian UK this morning. Blasphemy is illegal in (parts of) the UK, while unelected English Church Bishops vote on laws.

    No wonder people in N. Ireland are thinking about reunificaiton, even before they consider brexit and the greater economic success the democratic Emerald Isle republic enjoys.

    Certainly another little reminder to Scots to not look entirely within to understand what is driving the final break up of the UK. Sweeping sociopolitical changes are also in occuring in Ireland, just as they have been in England...and Scotland.

    Such things rarely happen in isolation.

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    1. Parts of the UK including Scotland of course....SNP really need to get it repealed here, they are 10 years behind England and Wales after all.

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    2. I agree.

      If I recall correctly, it was last used in Scotland 1843, hence it's not really been seen as high priorty, particularly given Scotland is secular, unlike semi-Theocratic (head of state church is head of state, unelected church figures vote in parliament) England.

      Unionist parties have never repealed it in scotland (they could have pushed this through in Scotland in 2008 when it was repealed in England + Wales as no party had a majority), but the pro-indy parties are committed to this going forward.

      Presumably the Tory UK government actually supports blasphemy or it would have used its 'ultimate power' to have it repealed in Scotland + N. Ireland too (and abortion in N. Ireland). After all, they can legislate on devolved areas if they want right? Like fishing and agriculture? That's what they've made clear recently re brexit.

      If that's the case, then the main reason abortion still is illegal in N. Ireland is westminster won't legislate on this even though it can. Westminster is either the ultimate body when it comes to laws for the UK or it's not.

      Of course while in Scotland it's a 'dead law', the link between church and state in Ireland has been very close until recently. Only now is it rapidly unwinding as Ireland becomes much more modern than the UK socially and democratically.

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    3. 35% voted to retain the laws. The Irish Muslim Council campaigned to retain the laws. The Jock Nat sis have had plenty of time to abolish the laws. Just keep blaming the Tories and Unionists for your failings.

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    5. So the Tory's Unionists support it by not abolishing it, but the SNP not abolishing it is due to it being a dead law. Jesus, its this SNP can do do no wrong its all the Unioists/ UK (sic England) Torys fault that will cost us the next referendum. You know that Labour/Tory voters will be needed for Yes to win the next referendum right? Keep telling them everything is their fault and there is no chance they will vote yes.

      Going to leave it there.Have a good Sunday.

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    6. I've re-read my post and can't find any instance of me blaming voters for not repealing ancient 'dead' blasphemy laws in Scotland.

      I said pro-UK parties didn't repeal 1843-to date, either through the Scottish parliament or the 'supreme' (in their words) Westminster parliament.

      SNP didn't push to repeal 2011-2016 when they wouldn't have needed the support of other parties. Either side of that period, all Scottish parties carry the can generally for legislation as none had a majority.

      None have repealed it because it was dead, but if we must place blame for who is most responsible for not repealing historically, it must be pro-UK parties as they've been in power (at 1 or more levels) all the time, with the SNP just in majority at 1 level briefly.

      Of course the pro-UK parties want this responsibility / blame; they support the union / Westminster being ultimately responsible. In face me blaming them is inherently unionist as under independence, that would be impossible.

      When it comes to N. Ireland, such laws, including making abortion illegal, are far less dead. While devolved, they are the responsiblity of Westminster (unionists claim, e.g. for Brexit). I've heard loads of calls in England for May and co to intervene and repeal abortion laws in N. Ireland. So, this is not by any means a Scottish nationalist wheeze.

      And ultimately that's what my original post was about (Ireland vs UK controlled Ireland). I never brought up Scotland re blasphemy laws because they are largely dead.

      Enjoy your sunday too.

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    7. Oh and an important final point on the whole 'blame' thing.

      In 2014 I voted to completely end the ability of Scots to blame Westminster / England for socio-economic problems in Scotland.

      Unfortunately, the pro-UK parties wanted to retain this ability, and campaigned hard for it, getting 55% support in the end.

      Ultimately, 'blaming England' for domestic problems is inherently unionist, as it can only be done within in the union. Under indy, the buck stops at Holyrood / our own doorstep.

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    8. I'd like to see this point rammed home en masse during the campaign for iref2.

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    9. Sean just get pissed and enjoy the British Guinness in Temple Bar. Thank the British for getting rid of yer bum boy priest's (temporarily). Be vigilant.

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    10. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its screams of bigotry.

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  9. We're having a Brexit party in our flat in London on 29 March. Liam and Adam are practising our special Dance of the Seven Deals. Beardie Muddle is in charge of the tea urn and we hope BoJo and DavDav will pop in and swear at us all. Pop along if you can or visit us in Brighton. God Save The Queens.

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    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries will no doubt provide the entertainment.
      It has a proven record in that regard; we've all been laughing at it for years.

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    2. I reckon you are a Turnip shaped like a Thingy.

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    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries.
      So needy.
      So very funny.

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    4. I am very funny and I say things other people are scared to think. Like this ,- you are a shifty nit with a shitty slit.

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    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia.

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    6. And you've got a face like a peanut �� omelet.

      Delete
    7. Even Madame Merkel wouldn't lick your peanut butter grimble face even though she would like to thank you for letting her sell her Weiner shnitzels in her seig heil nat si supermarkets. Mein herren.

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    8. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its bizarre unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia.

      Delete
    9. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its bizarre unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia and its bizarre self-created Esperanto Polari fusion.

      Delete
  10. Think they've probably changed their methodology as far as adjusting for things like recalled independence vote goes. People tend to forget how they voted after a whilewhile. Especially if they're embarrassed.

    Can't remember which polling firm it was but asked to be removed from a call list as the order of questions seemed leading.

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  11. If this is true, then the end of the UK is very close.

    Dear god.

    ---

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1056668376955797504

    Excl: Philip Hammond to unveil a special 50p Brexit coin in his Budget;



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    1. I thought the 50p story was a spoof or very early April Fool's Day joke. The fact that the coin will be released in time from 1 April says all there is to be said on the topic. Wow - mentaaaaal!

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    2. A 50p piece would be a good idea. Rubbing it in tae the EU crawlers.

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    3. A 50p piece gets you a ride off a Glasgow tart. 30 years old and a grandmother. Ugly boilers

      Delete
    4. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its willingness to share entirely too much of its inner life.
      Poor, miserable, tormented Cordelia.
      So sad.

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    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its willingness to tell us entirely too much about its inner life.
      Still, always entertaining watching its various identities scream to itself.

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    6. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its willingness to tell us entirely too much about its inner life.
      Still, always entertaining watching it try to dish out orders.

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    7. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its willingness to tell us entirely too much about its inner life.
      Poor, tormented creature.
      So sad.
      So very funny.

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    8. Your the poor tormented sad very funny creature. I laugh and weep for you at the same time. I really do. Even though you want to put British people in gas chambers and send Nickerless Dungeon for a photo. Shameless tart

      Delete
    9. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its willingness to tell us entirely too much about its inner life.
      Poor, tormented, confused creature, just like its ultra-right-wing masters.
      So sad.
      So very funny.

      Delete