Thursday, June 21, 2018

Is there a strategic advantage to what happened yesterday?

Obviously we all wanted the government to lose in the Commons yesterday, but now that they haven't, I'm trying to work out whether in the long run that will prove to be good or bad news for the SNP and the wider cause of independence.  As they say about the French Revolution, it's probably too early to tell.  The case for arguing that it might be good news is that it makes Theresa May's survival as PM more likely (I know, I know, but bear with me), which in turn makes a general election late this year or early next year less likely, thus making any decision to press ahead with an independence referendum next year much less complicated.  But the counter-argument is that now the power-grab story has finally broken through into the public consciousness, the SNP would have had a fearsome weapon with which to fight an early general election - one that simply wasn't available to them last time around.  If they had made gains rather than losses in an election, that would have set them up perfectly for the calling of a referendum shortly thereafter.

So you pays your money and you takes your choice.  I note, incidentally, that there is a great deal of smugness and complacency in many part of the London media about how the Tory government will sail through the vote on Heathrow expansion next week due to the support of the SNP.  My own view, for what it's worth, is that whatever the merits or demerits of a third runway, the SNP should be pursuing a policy of total non-cooperation with the government until and unless the power-grab is reversed.

94 comments:

  1. That's a good point re. Heathrow. I hope the SNP's MPs are thinking similarly!

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    1. Herman Junker Luftwaffe EU Top ManJune 23, 2018 at 1:04 AM

      SNP Always think the same as do all braindead fascists. Never any descent just following orders, neep neep as Jim Davidson would say.

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    2. I dissent from the idea that the braindead can think.

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    3. Get her! Little Miss Bigword Fancypout.

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    4. To all representatives of Scotland in Union (and we know you lurk here; we can hear you hyperventilating) - this is your guy for indyref2. Put it in front of every camera and microphone.

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    5. Up yor arse with one of Mark Lester's jambalaya spoon's. Twat's.

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    6. It does seem to have a profoundly unhealthy fixation on anal penetration, both with and without foreign objects.

      This tells us a great deal about it from a Freudian perspective.

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    7. Wrong. Madamazell Titflake. I put thing's up.

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  2. Agree that total non-cooperation ought to be the mantra.

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    1. What has Angela Merkel got to do with it? Sober up.

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  3. It would certainly accord with their talk of 'disruptions' following the walkout last week.

    I hope they do!

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  4. We back Heathrow if you give us a section 30 order?

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    1. You should be sectioned. Psycho.

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    2. So states the local bizarre obsessive.

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  5. I think I'm in agreement - yes, hoped the Government would lose the vote yesterday but on the flipside anything that basically doesn't change the fact this is still just May's wobbly nobody-knows-what's-going-on-Parliament-no-real-say Brexit continues the rationale for indyref2 in short order.

    You never know, there might still be a GE2018. I thought there may be something in the Robert Peston logic that May was potentially gearing up for an autumn election with the whole NHS "bonus" - the need to fund it through taxation (either partially or wholly) meaning a new manifesto (and hence GE) would be needed as justification to avoid basically showing up the previous Conservative manifesto as being a bunch of mistruths. However I agree an autumn GE does look less likely than it did a few days ago - but there are still some difficult HoC votes to come I think.

    To be honest I think the bigger issue around the indyref timing will be the stated desire of the FM to see what the exit deal between the UK and the EU actually looks like (assuming there is going to be one). As we've seen the only constant of the UK government's position so far has been to kick the can as far as it will be kicked...and then kick it a bit further, in the hope something else turns up rather than anyone actually making any decision one way or another on anything.

    I think there's a high possibility that we're not really going to know what the deal fully looks like until the end of this year or even early next year right to near the last minute (and I can see potential Article 50 extension requests on top of that too), so the question then becomes does the indyref2 trigger get pulled "early" - with people saying "oh they were always going to regardless, they didn't bother to wait for the final deal", or ending up delaying and delaying as well in response.

    Hopefully smarter people than I can already see this possibility coming!

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    1. There could be something in what you say about A50 extensions.

      But the London media seems to be giving the impression that it is 'ask and ye shall definitely receive'.

      Unless I am wrong, all the EU states would have to agree to any extension and I am not sure at this point why they would. So a deal can still not be made because neither side will move an inch on the main red lines? Waste of time.

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    2. Kangaroo says
      Robert this is like a game of cards. It is their turn at the moment, we wait. There are more 'reveals' to be had, eg A50 revocation court case, Continuity Bill court case, European Council meetings etc etc. We need as much information as possible before making any move as we probably will only get one shot. It better be a blockbuster.

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    3. Not much going on in yor life if you have time to spew out all that old crap. Get a life!

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    4. Yeah. Take some guidance from a troll so obsessed with this site that it spends most of its time on here...

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  6. "My own view, for what it's worth, is that whatever the merits or demerits of a third runway, the SNP should be pursuing a policy of total non-cooperation with the government until and unless the power-grab is reversed."

    They should've been doing that for a long time.

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    1. Absolutely

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    2. Absolutely - the SNP should withdraw their support right away. And when the media comes thundering down from high about, just explain why they are no longer cooperating with WM after the power grab. More air time to reinforce the powerful message sent to the people last week. Now is not the time to ease the foot off the pedal. Keep the pressure on.

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    3. Why were we even considering supporting the third runway..!

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    4. Luigi Pluigi shoving his euro nose into UK affair's. Not your business matey.

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    5. And you keep yor jocko nose out of are buisness too, kilt muncha nob lady.

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    6. It's worth 7p and a half eating KitKat.

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  7. Agree on being non-cooperative and have never understood why we should all be happy with Heathrow being the all-consuming big hub. How does that help build Scotland's infrastructure?

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  8. Consider Heathrow from the perspective of a Scottish but International businessman: you want to get to foreign parts with the minimum of fuss. A generation ago, Schipol was a far better hub than Heathrow, and multiple terminals have made little difference to that.
    A third runway at Heathrow sound attractive to people like that.
    By the time that runway battles through the planning laws and gets built, another generation will have gone by. If petrol and diesel are pollutant, kerosene will surely follow and by 2050 it's likely big fat airliners will be heading the same way as most current cars.
    So what seems a 'sensible' decision now will probably end up an ecological pain in the bum. Not that Conservatives will recognise any green argument, and they won't worry about pains in the bum because they're used to that.

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    1. Derek Grainge.

      Yor strange.

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  9. I am against a 3rd runway at Heathrow. It will simply lead to more power being sucked into London and the South East of England. I would like to see more international flights dire fly to and from Scotland.

    I definitely agree that our Mps should be as obstructive as possible, and not support a 3rd runway, how is this supposed to help Scotland anyway?

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    1. Who the f*ck give's a shit about thing's yor against?

      You'd be better getting yor hubby's dinner ready instead of spouting crap on here.

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    2. The subject exhibits the sort of deep-seated misogyny that arguably stems from childhood experiences.

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  10. If I were leader of the SNP group, I'd be stringing the Tories along, implying we would support them on the third runway and pull the rug out from under them on the vote. Like they did with John Nicolson's Turing bill. Possibly even filibustering the bill out.

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    1. If you were leader of the SNP the rest of the group would hang themselves.

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    2. Like it's Tory overlords, it now advocates suicide.

      Delightful.

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    3. Hoy Dolly Dot. Do us all a favour and go sunbathing on the M25.
      HahahahahahaHa

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  11. My hope on the Heathrow runway is that the Tories try to apply EVEL, and if they don't, our SNP MPs should take a leaf out of Labour's book and abstain.

    In our own interests, where we don't have direct flights, we should be switching our efforts towards setting up more connections through Amsterdam, Paris and Brussels.

    Assuming an independent Scotland in the EU, do we really want to be dependent on Heathrow in Brexit England? That is, if there are any commercial flights to Europe out of English and Welsh airports in the absence of the necessary international treaties - which have not been negotiated.

    I read the other day that Easyjet are setting up a hub in Vienna in the expectation that they will not be able to rely on using Luton.

    Shortened URL for that story http://tinyurl.com/yabo8b8b, title "‘Our flying rights in Europe will be secure’: easyJet allays fears about post-Brexit disruption". When they say "flying rights in Europe", they mean "flying rights within Europe, not including the UK".

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    1. Jeezuss. That was a dreary read. 18 minutes of my life I'll never get back.

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  12. I was at a funeral yesterday, so what happened in the commons?

    And why does Westminster have to have a vote on Heathrow Airport? Shouldn't that be a decision for the local authority, not the central government?

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    1. How did you manage to escape the devils furnace?

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    2. By jumping on a nat si band wagon and singing Waggle Me Cocoa Nut's.

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    3. Peek back me banana an nibble.

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  13. We have links to Amsterdam etc. and unike BA when there's a difficulty, KLM etc. don't immediately cancel domestic flights. If it's in Scotland's interest, we should support; but against the current backdrop with a possible hard Brexit, is it really in our interests to support this? Is there any advantage to Scotland? I think we should play hard ball on this one. They don't play fair and in or out of the EU they will continue to be unfair. (Unlike the Moray moron I can distiguish between 'them' and 'us'.) If it becomes an EVEL matter then rUK should pay the full bill!

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    1. You are elected as business person of the century including the last century.
      How has the human race survived without you!

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    2. RMalamadamajama. Ding ding. Scooby

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    3. I think you really need pyschitric help. Yor like insane.

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  14. Either agreeing to a section 30 or dropping the power grab. Should be the offer the SNP make to the Tories in exchange for supporting Heathrow. We can play dirty too.

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    1. I am neither a poofter or a half woman but a blow job is welcome provided it is free at the point of release..

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    2. But you are Dolly. Time to scrub out yor batcave with a brilliant pad caked in Vim.

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  15. Don't just talk about it on here guys.

    Tweet Ian Blackford

    'No to 3rd runway'

    With a link to this article below. That's what I've just done

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    1. No I mean... This article. i.e. the one you're commenting on... Link it below your text on your tweet

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    2. You're a right bleeding article and no messing.

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    3. Dolly Dot's busy with the candle stick.

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  16. It’s difficult to express how hugely bonkers it is (to me) for snp to offer support to Heathrow expansion. It goes against environmental credibility and it goes against the whole idea of non-dependence.
    And as an infrequent flier, on purely personal preference terms, Heathrow is the last place that I will ever choose to use as a connection airport.
    The whole Heathrow/ APD thing is my one big bugbear with the snp policies.

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    1. Sounds like it's difficult for you to express yor name.

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  18. Let English MPs vote on an English airport.

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  19. Please entertain the possibility that Mrs May knows perfectly well what kind of Brexit she is heading for, and that all the apparent havering and indecision is simply a device to avoid revealing what the deal is, until it's too late too change. If that is the case, what _is_ the deal that we shall end up with? I think that it's been completely clear since last Christmas, that the outcome will be the softest Brexit possible. The Irish border agreement, the transition arrangements and the 'backstop' agreement are incompatible with a hard Brexit.
    If this argument is correct -- then there will not come a time in the next 2 years, or five years for that matter, at which the Scottish electorate will face a choice between 'independence' and 'bad Brexit'.
    I am sure many independence supporters would like to fight next time on the battlefield, of a choice between Independence and Bad Brexit, but that battlefield is not likely to be available.
    The fundamental argument for independence is that Scotland is better governed from Edinburgh than from Westminster. If you have doubts about winning the argument on that basis, then you should take up another hobby, rather than dream that the unionists will present you with an open goal and no defenders.
    Yeah, I was very surprised to hear that the SNP were going to vote solidly for the runway, and I'll be disappointed if they do.

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    1. Which is why the SG is keeping its powder dry till all becomes clearer in the autumn.
      Slowly slowly catchee monkey.
      Take a deep breath guys and haud yer horses.

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    2. Hoy, word waster. Get a life, have a bit a cookie and save the world reading that crap.
      HahahahahahaHa

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  20. A referendum should be called now. Put it to the people. Westminster is in the process of shafting the devo system.
    Its now a clear choice between London rule or Edinburgh rule.

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    1. You need menral medical help. There's something wrong with you

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  21. In the news today, up to 100 Labour MPs set to support Heathrow expansion. It looks as though the SNP view on this will be irrelevant.

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    1. The Jock nat sis need Heathrow for onward travel. Who is going to build a major international airport in Scotland? Prestwick is susidised and under used. The Nat sis will do as they always do, wait and see that what they want is guaranteed to be passed through Parliament and vote against it. The nat sis were knobled years ago. Up yer kilts.

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    2. ..with a tarry brush!!!!!

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    3. Oooohyaah. Sticky hot tarry brush up a wino Jocko's jockskirt.

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    4. Ridiculous. Agatha Christie never revealed what happened during those missing days. But I think she was having a bit of oollala with local lads with tattoos and hairy chests. And suntans.

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  22. Putting national politics aside the SNP leadership have already met with and offered Heathrow’s board their support for a third runway due to the long term economic benefits and plans to use sites in Scotland as logistics hubs during construction. Independence or not these benefits will remain in place, going back on their word for no reason other than spite would send a very bad message to business and achieve very little as even without the SNP Heathrow believes it has the support of around 400 or MPs from the rUK but could result in Heathrow reneging on its commitments to Scottish investment.

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    1. Maybe we maybe we should keep the nukes at Faslane too, because of all the jobs....
      Just because the SNP are doing a great job generally, doesn’t mean they are right to support airport expansion - imho

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    2. So said Cleopatra Pish.

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    3. I think we broke it.

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    4. Like you broke yor diddly-pop after a session with Jeremy Thorpe and Danny Laroo.

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    5. This obsession with Jeremy Thorpe tells us all manner of things about the troll.

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