Wednesday, April 25, 2018

The inconvenient truth the media don't want you to know about: the Scottish government's negotiating position may have just been strengthened

I'm sure by now you've heard the unanimous verdict in the unionist media that the Welsh government's cave-in on the power grab has left Nicola Sturgeon "isolated", "under pressure", etc, etc.  But what the media don't want you to know is that the Welsh decision may actually have significantly strengthened the Scottish Government's negotiating position in one key respect.  Here's how.

Earlier today, a BBC Wales political correspondent appeared on BBC Scotland, and claimed that the Labour government in Wales had made a strategic decision to "bank" the concessions made by the UK government so far, because of the fear that London might not deliver them if a formal agreement wasn't reached.  He added that the Welsh government remained more than happy to "piggyback" on any further concessions secured by the Scottish government.  (If true, this raises the obvious question of why Scottish Labour are sabotaging their Welsh colleagues' strategy by demanding that Nicola Sturgeon should back down.)  I've no idea how much credence to give to the idea that London could have backtracked on the offers they'd already made, but let's assume for the sake of argument that there was something in it.  Now that there is a formal agreement between London and Cardiff, the concessions made until now are to all intents and purposes locked in as far as Scotland is concerned as well.  It would be politically inconceivable for the UK government to grab more power from the Scottish Parliament than from the Welsh Assembly.  What that means is that Nicola Sturgeon now has much less to lose from the rest of the negotiations than she previously did.  If the UK government fail to offer anything more of substance, she can afford to stand her ground on the Continuity Bill safe in the knowledge that, even in the worst-case scenario of the Supreme Court striking the Bill down outright, the deal announced with Wales would still be the minimum that would have to be delivered in Scotland.  There is no real option for London to row back on that.

In snooker parlance, Nicola Sturgeon suddenly has the luxury of a 'shot to nothing'.  Not too shabby for someone who is supposedly "isolated" and "under pressure".

68 comments:

  1. Fascinating.

    That is SUCH a different interpretation to that reiterated endlessly in the mainstream, just as the endless focus on Labour's supposed anti-semitism stands in such strong contrast to the actual racism of the Tories intent on creating a 'hostile society' for all.

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    1. It takes a true blinkered bigot to squeeze a "Tories are racist" angle from this one. At least James backs up his claims with reasoned arguments - you just throw bitter nasty unfounded allegations into every thread you touch.

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    2. Last week...http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/16175385.Conservative_council_candidate_suspended_for____supporting_white_supremacists___/.......and ongoing, but not in the MSM....https://mobile.twitter.com/Trickyjabs/status/978334234069946373

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    3. Hi there Anonymous,

      I was using short hand.

      I didn't mean all people who vote Tory, I meant those Tories who are currently in power: the policies pursued by Theresa May and Amber Rudd have explicitly sought to create a hostile environment, the Brexit referendum result down south led to a 14 food increase in hate crime, whereas the result up here led to a drop in hate crime. To say that these Tories and are creating a climate of fear is a perfectly reasonable analysis, based on their own words.

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. and while we're at it . . .

    is America REALLY so much more democratic than we are? Those wanting CALEXIT only have to get a third of a million signatures and they can have a state-wide vote on whether to leave that union: https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/calexit-california-independence-bid-to-emulate-scottish-yes-campaign-1-4729977

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    1. We had a civil war about this. Look it up. The answer is that we are an indivisible union.FYI.

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    2. Hmm, even if people don't want it? Sounds like fascist Spain.

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  4. It is fairly laughable that Ms Sturgeon was somehow dependent upon support for the Welsh.

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  5. I also wouldn't rule out some level of coordination between the Scottish and Welsh Governments to achieve the very outcome you've just described. It would be very smart negotiating tactics.

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  6. the welsh don't have 3 white feathers for nothing!

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    1. Better than the jock nat si red used tampons that want to sell Scotland out to Herr Juncker and the Frankfurterer Vankers down sausage side.

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    2. State of this and its impotent rage.

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    3. What does that even mean? Is it in Esperanto..?

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    4. Auto-fill SettingsApril 26, 2018 at 6:34 AM

      I think it's just a selection of words picked at random from a spell-checker.

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    5. Glad to see your wee pet troll is still with us.

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  7. Gesualdo McKinstryApril 25, 2018 at 9:31 PM

    Arise, Sir Carwyn. Your expenses forms await you.

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    1. You Scottish Nationalist Traitors are about selling out Scotland to German capitalistsm.

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    2. Peninsula of DreamsApril 25, 2018 at 10:37 PM

      And you're a dribbling brainless brexit wreck.

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    3. Fred the Shred Wee Ecks PalApril 26, 2018 at 2:24 AM

      Wibbering Geck.

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    4. Now, just what country do you imagine Scottish Nationalists are traitors to? Clue: the UK is not a country, it is a Union.

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  8. What I want to know is why the Welsh "sunset clause" is after 5 years, but in Scotland it's after 7.

    Has that been misreported?

    If not, then "[i]t would be politically inconceivable for the UK government to grab more power from the Scottish Parliament than from the Welsh Assembly" doesn't appear to be true.

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    1. I'm fairly sure that's just poor reporting. If reducing the sunset clause from 7 years to 5 was enough to buy off the Welsh (which still seems hard to believe) then I would expect 5 years to be in the final bill.

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  9. So, according to those Westminster Tory Morons and their subservient wee cap-doffing Yoonionists up here, the word "consent" now also means NOT agreeing and outright REFUSING to do something -


    "This is from first page of @GovUK amendments to #EUWithdrawalBill , just published. It says that even a straight refusal of consent by @ScotParl would make no difference ( & for the next 7 years) . Westminster would be able just to treat it as consent and carry on regardless"


    https://twitter.com/Feorlean/status/989202000909864960




    Welsh Labour really must button up the back - what a shower of spineless idiots they are.

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    1. Herr Franky bhoy is back with its capitulation to the Treaty of Rome and Lisbon. Calls itself a Scot from whatever rock it crawls under.

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    2. State of this.

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  10. Interesting interpretation James. Not inconceivable that the Welsh and Scottish Governments have liaised on this, seeking a base level of returned powers.

    General impression here in Wales though is that Mark Drakeford has backed down much too soon on this issue. Handing Westminster the right to reserve some powers for seven years sounds like capitulation to me.We don' even know what these powers are...! He is the favourite to replace Carwyn Jones as First Minister. God help us....

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    1. Lord Carwyn of Expenses should be à terrific asset to House of Lord.

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  11. There are more Welsh Labour peers than Tories.
    They are as part of the UK establishment so no real surprise.
    Plaid furious, Wales threw away a winning hand here.
    Now watch Labour stepping into line with the Tories, and attacking SNP.
    They ken whit side their breid is buttered on. Peerage anyone?

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  12. Welsh Labour may button up the back but we don't.
    Westminster's promises are worthless as we well know.
    Not sure why Westminster feels it needs to have control over Scottish farming,fishing etc for 7 years.
    Is that how long they think it is going to take to put new trade deals in place?

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  13. One other thing,when Westminster decides to ignore Scottish legislation and we call an independence referendum and win,where does that leave the piggy that Welsh Labour want to have a back on?
    Wales,as was Scotland are not well served by a British Labour party which will always put Westminster's interests before those of their country.

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  14. The Tank Commander is up the kite and how will we survive now, has emergency arrangements being put in place.. No one to stand up to Knickerless.

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    1. That you, troll? Did your delivery arrive?

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    2. Yes a lovely young girl I think from the Philippines. Just chekin for haw maws.

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    3. Doesn't sound like the troll's usual tastes. I'm given to understand that a firm in Lochgelly could take care of those...

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  15. It's a mere moment since roof told Vanity Fair that she didn't marry susan calman's replacement because she couldn't afford both a wedding and her dog's vet bill.
    Now it turns out that she can afford Tens of Thousands on IVF to inflict a fatherless orphan on an overpopulated planet.

    Proving both that she is a lying turd and a fat Nazi. I wish endless pain and a hideous death on them both.

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    1. Pope Frank the Main ManApril 26, 2018 at 9:42 PM

      My son were you takin it up the bahooky when you wrote that. I forgive you now, go and write a hundred times, I promise Holy Father I will vote NO.

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    2. What a thoroughly nasty, homophobic git. I am going to assume you are only a pretend yesser because I honestly never met one as hateful as you.

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    3. You can assume what you want. You are politically inept.

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    4. Disgusting homophobes, the pair of them.

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    5. I'll take being 'politically inept' over being a homophobic arsehole like you any day of the week.

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  16. You probably thought giving blow jobs in the confessional a normal occurrence.

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    1. Seek professional help. Immediately.

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    2. Bum boy child molester RC incorporated.

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    3. State of this.

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    4. James - I know your feelings about deleting comments on here, but could you at least do something about the constant anti-Catholic hate this creature spews? It should be a police matter and I'd hate to report you as the "publisher" rather than have you go to them and explain that you have a persistent troll who needs to be dealt with. They can trace his IP and prosecute him.

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  17. Is it just me? In my personal life I would never give anyone the right to decide my economic and decision wellbeing(?), not for a moment not for 5 or 7 years. Why the Welsh government has done so mystifies me, was a veiled threat involved, or a Vow?

    Some of the juvenile comments above, off topic, are neither informative nor amusing, and spoiling an excellent blog site. Grow up, or go elsewhere.

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    1. That includes the Scottish Nat si party I presume.

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    2. State of this.

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  18. Ma Bum is Sore FatherApril 28, 2018 at 8:35 PM

    Regensburg Boys Choir abuse by the RC. It is everywhere! What is the Jock Nat sis Gov doing about abuse in Scotland.

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    1. Why? Has S Daisley been up to his old tricks with young boys again?

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    2. Do not know, do you? Do not know Daisley, do you, is he important as the Catholic Church! Has he buggered millions of children.

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    3. State of this.

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  19. In other news. The allegedly Independence supporting Sunday haggarty has a headline stating that Sturgeon & Tories are destroying devolution. At least that's how it reads. No doubt mad mental leask can explain just why they couldn't have had "Tories destroying devolution says FM" Which would leave no room for any ambiguity.

    PS. I can't stand that woman. Holier than thou plastic paddy and raving alcoholic. With a giant snozzle that no haircut in the World can cover up.

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    1. Ending devolution would save the taxpayer a fortune and enhance the labour market.

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    2. Ending devolution would save around 8 million a year in wages for unnecessary politicians. Then their entourage of flunkies and bits on the side would double that. Then the maintenance for the building etc would be a major saving to the taxpayer. Demolish the building it is a toilet. Lothian Transport are desperate for bus drivers.

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    3. Gibberish. Only to be expected...

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    4. It is fact and it adds up. Scottish business could be run by the Scottish elected MPs. They are idle down there. Two had enough time to be shaggin the same burd.

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    5. Having a go at how one looks is rather nasty.

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    6. That's never stopped you...

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    7. Disnae read that way at all.
      Back tae school for you tae learn aboot punctuation.
      Ye had me worried though, till I actually bought the Herald.

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  20. How lucky I now feel to have been banned from this blog!

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  21. wee jimmy krankie the wee commie taxing oor drink into oblivion while she sits in her free hoose,free car ,chauffer driven with champers on ice in the back seat,Her and her partner meanwhile count the 500,000 a year that they get in benefits from the state that they create,distributing none of it.Totally repugnant hypocrite national socialists.

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    1. That you, troll? You're even more confused than usual - you used commie and national socialist in the same pathetic rant. Recommend you seek professional help.

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