Thursday, December 21, 2017

Catalan election dramatically reinforces mandate for independence

With almost all the votes in, this looks like being the result -

Pro-independence parties: 70 seats
Anti-independence parties: 57 seats
Neutral party: 8 seats

Pro-independence parties: 70 seats
All others combined: 65 seats

PRO-INDEPENDENCE OVERALL MAJORITY OF 5 SEATS

The statistic that the Spanish government and EU leaders will cling to for dear life is that the pro-independence parties didn't quite manage 50% of the popular vote, but don't be fooled by that - the pro-indy camp have a lead of around four percentage points over all of the unionist parties combined.  The neutral party's votes are the fly in the ointment, but there's no reason to doubt that they would break in both directions in the event of a binding independence referendum, making it overwhelmingly unlikely that the fabled "silent majority for Spanish unity" actually exists.  The turnout was exceptionally high, so there's no excuse there - it's not so much a silent majority as a 'vanished from the face of the earth majority'.

Obviously it would have been preferable, and would have removed the last tiny vestige of uncertainty, if the three pro-indy parties had won an absolute majority of the votes.  But let's be honest - even if that had happened, Spain would still be saying that independence is illegal, and the EU would still be sticking their heads in the sand.  An absolute majority of seats is the far more important thing from a strategic point of view, because it leaves the Spanish government in a right old pickle.  The election was called so that the Catalan parliament would no longer be a 'rebel' body, but instead that status quo ante has been reinstated - the parliament will presumably at least nominally continue to regard itself as the legislative body of an independent republic.  Will Spain now turn a blind eye to that?  Or will it call yet another election, and perhaps another one after that, and make itself look utterly ridiculous?  Or will it indefinitely suspend the Catalan democratic institutions?  All of those three options look untenable, and yet if Rajoy doesn't want to grant a binding independence referendum (or indeed to recognise the independence declaration that has already been issued) he'll have to select one of them.

There was a minor surprise in the battle between the two main pro-independence parties, with Carles Puigdemont's centre-right grouping Junts per Catalunya just pipping the left-wing ERC, despite having trailed in the pre-election polls.  However, once the small CUP party is taken into account, the pro-indy camp has a slight left-wing majority, making it a very different beast from the Catalan nationalist movement of old.  On the unionist side, Rajoy was utterly annihilated - his ironically-named Partido Popular seems to have finished seventh in the popular vote, and probably seventh in terms of seats as well.  (And you thought the Scottish Tories paid a heavy price for opposing devolution in the 1990s?)  His natural support seems to have defected en masse to the supposedly 'liberal and centrist' (but in reality right-of-centre and conservative) Ciutadans party, perhaps because that's more of a home-grown unionist outfit.

A modest and sincerely-intended suggestion for the EU: if they don't want to look ludicrously one-sided and anti-democratic, they ought as a minimum to call on Spain to grant Puigdemont an amnesty and allow him to resume his role as president without any further risk of imprisonment.  He is, after all, a newly re-elected head of government, and not a serial killer.

UPDATE: I see that the Madrid-based El Pais newspaper is not grouping the parties into the three camps of 'pro-independence', 'anti-independence' and 'neutral', but instead lumping the anti-independence and neutral parties together in order to claim that the 'No Independentistas' defeated the 'Independentistas' in the popular vote.  I suppose you have to admire their creativity if nothing else.

29 comments:

  1. I see the unsavoury Verhofstadt has tweeted congrats to Ciutadans....
    His little narrative of a Catalan unionist majority having just been revealed as fantasy. Great piece James. Intriguing re neutral party

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  2. you're cited here https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2017/12/20/catalonias-big-day/

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  3. People will read this in different ways as it is, once again, unclear as to how many of those who voted actually wanted separation.

    If the popular vote, it does seem that the sepatists have fallen short of 50%. We know that Spain will demand a clear threshold if they are to have a chance of allowing a spilt.

    This saga will go in and on, Catalonia is extemely divided.

    Also, Ciutadans didn’t ‘win’, you only win with a majority. They came first, a big difference. If Verhofstadt said that he was wrong in my opinion. Other parties can outvote them.

    Nobody won, nothing changes. The standoff remains.

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    1. In a parliamentary democracy, the side that secures an absolute majority of seats is the winner. The pro-independence side won. The anti-independence side lost. Rajoy's gambit has failed. Everything has changed.

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    2. ...but it’s the same result as the last Catalonia election (majority of seats for pro independence parties, but a minority of votes) and neither Spain nor the EU recognised that one as a clear mandate for independence.

      Your article was fascinating to read and thanks for letting me contribute - I just don’t see it - What will change as a result of this election?

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    3. Yes, it's broadly the same result as the last Catalan election - the one that Rajoy called a vote in the hope and expectation of overturning. He gambled, he failed, and has nowhere left to go. That is what's changed.

      If you think he has a viable option left, what is it?

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    4. Just to be clear the leaders of the American Revolution acknowledged that they never had close to a majority...did the union of England and Scotland get a referendum? Must have missed it...you would think a government getting 40% support would be ashamed, not bragging that " only 49% of our people despise us.

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    5. ‘If you think he has a viable option left, what is it?’

      My thoughts:

      1) see if a govt can be formed involving unionists & separatists (unlikely)

      2) continue to ignore parliament’s pushes for independence, arguing it represents a minority of the votes cast

      3) change the constitution and offer a legal referendum

      4) rule Catalonia directly while no govt is formed and call an election next year if one still isn’t formed

      5) offer sweeping new powers short of independence to compromise

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  4. You couldn't make it up. According to deluded unionist rag El PaĆ­s Ciutadans won the election. More of that special use of the term "win" to mean "can't possibly form a government under any circumstances". That sort of winning.

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  5. The 'neutral' party actually are in favour a referendum.

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  6. I have to admit at being a little surprised by the comments from Guy Verhofstadt who has always seemed to be one of Scotland's biggest "fans" in the EU in regards independence.

    Despite the re-election of a pro-indy bloc he seems set to push the agenda that the Citizens party "won". Yes the Citizens party won the most (Pro-Union) but its basically the same as has happened in Scotland of late where Pro-UK voters have tended to coalesce around the Tories over voting Lib Dem or Labour as they might have in the past.

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  7. Us Jocko Unionists won a decisive victory on September 2014 however the Jock fascists did not accept the result. This kind of fascist behaviour can cause violence.
    The good news today is the British passport will be introduced 2019. Baws in the nat si court now.

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    1. I'm sure British nationalists/fascists would love to see violence in Scotland. Their kind of fascist behaviour in George Square resulted in violence.

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    2. That wis the nat sis and far leftie republicans that caused awraborra in ra Square.
      They should have left the winners to celebrate the glorious victory against the nat sis.

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    3. Where's your evidence, troll?

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    4. Where's your contradictory evidence nat si prick.

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    5. You may be projecting a little with that remark. Here's the Daily Mail, probably the most Unionist newspaper in existence, accusing No voters in George Square of being "Nazi-saluting thugs".

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    6. The Daily Mail the only reputable newspaper in the UK. You have to prove they were thugs and it was the Romans who started the salute to be followed by Mussolini then Herman the German. And who was the jock nat si thug that assaulted a pensioner!

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    7. There are pics of Knickerless and Arlene Foster which could be construed by the press if they wish that they were Nazi salutes.
      The British fought the Nazis unlike the Irish Republic..

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  8. Jocko fash condemned some minor disturbances in Catelonia and Kim Yung Eck sucks up to Russians who invaded the Ukraine. At least 4500 dead in the Ukraine.

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    1. Evidence, troll? Links? No? Surprise surprise...

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  9. Talk aboot, thurr baw oan-thae-slates. Rahoy thurr! Tak mae oot ah here, sherpeesh.

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  10. I guess Ei Pais is assuming nobody can count, and rightwing press the same there as here, though we need to include TV BBC in that mix.

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  11. Bottom line is Rajoy gambled and lost despite the heavy handed tactics (or perhaps because of the heavy handed tactics). Pro independence parties have gained a seat and the PP are all but wiped out.

    Time for Rajoy to release those imprisoned and talk seriously to the pro-independence alliance.

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  12. O/T A new Scotland poll commissioned by Wings Over Scotland has Yes 49% No 51%.

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  13. I remember Alex Salmond's interview with Carlos Puigdemont and he was certain that there was a substantial majority for Independence if a subsequent referendum were to be held.

    I think he has a case after yesterday's result.

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  14. Marcia - no aff toapic. Jist whit, wurr lukin fur.

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  15. The BBC unsurprisingly have no trace of their usual detailed charts illustrating the voting numbers and patterns.
    These guys do though: https://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-election-results-2017-live-independence-spain/

    And amongst the chit chat about the less-than-50% vote in favour, is the clear fact that only 9 of the illustrated voting areas did not vote more-than-50% in favour of independence-supporting parties; meaning that the other 37(?) DID vote more than 50% in favour of independence supporting parties.

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