Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Have London Tory ministers been heeding siren voices about the SNP?

Faisal Islam, the Sky News political editor, had a 22-part thread on Twitter last night in which he suggested that the Tories are moving towards something a little mushier than their previous preferred Hard Brexit model.  There may be some truth in that, but one part of the thread leapt out as very obviously wrong -


As I've noted before, it's important to separate out two different questions - a) have the SNP concluded that an early general election is undesirable? and b) would they vote in favour of an early general election if the option was put before the Commons?  If Faisal Islam is correct, the Tories are making the huge mistake of assuming that if the answer to a) is "yes", the answer to b) must by definition be "no".  They may have been encouraged in that view by listening too much to so-called metrosplainers such as Mike Smithson of Stormfront Lite, who has repeatedly pushed the idea that the SNP will inevitably vote for their own self-interest and help block an early election.  Tory ministers really need to get out more and start listening to people who understand Scottish politics - although in truth they should have long since learned the lesson themselves by now.  Have they really not noticed how toxic the Tory brand has been for decades among the pool of voters which the SNP and Labour compete over?  Or have they fallen for their own propaganda, and think that Scotland is suddenly relaxed about Tory rule now that Ruth Davidson is here?

The reality is that it doesn't actually matter whether the SNP have privately reached the view that an early election is more of a threat than an opportunity, or even whether they think it would be a certain disaster.  They would have no choice but to vote to bring down the Tory government, because the long-term consequences of doing anything else hardly bear thinking about.  There would be no point in avoiding a short-term hit if the price is decades of Labour taunts about the SNP helping to keep the Tories in power.  I doubt if there's a single SNP MP who doesn't fully understand that point.

In any event, it's far from clear that the SNP should fear an early election.  The danger they face in the central belt has been well-rehearsed, but the flip-side of the coin is that they look well-placed to regain a few rural constituencies from the Tories.  It hardly needs to be stated what a psychological boost it would be if Angus Robertson and Alex Salmond were to quickly regain their former seats.

*  *  *

Memo to Anas Sarwar : There's little point in pitching yourself as the unity candidate who will bring Corbynites and moderates together, if you're then going to unveil a long list of the usual suspects (such as Iain "the Snarl" Gray, Ian Murray, the Daily Mail's very own Alan Roden, Catherine Stihler and Jackie Baillie) as your loyal supporters.  You might as well just have the words Chicken Coup : The Sequel tattooed on your forehead.  Severin Carrell's initial claim that Sarwar was the man to watch because he would have Corbynites flocking to his cause is looking more and more eccentric with every passing day.

The Labour selectorate are faced with a genuine dilemma, though.  Whether wisely or unwisely, Nicola Sturgeon has nailed her colours to the mast today with a breathtakingly radical programme for government that will make it much harder for a Leonard-led Labour to outflank the SNP on the left.  For all Ruth Davidson's half-hearted claims that the SNP have nicked one or two Tory policies, I can't see anything in there that could reasonably be described as right-of-centre - but there's quite a bit that's to the left of even Corbyn himself.

16 comments:

  1. If the Tories want another election then the SNP should abstain on the motion requiring 434 votes (as should Labour). The Tories then have to move a motion of no confidence in themselves. SNP and Labour would then vote no confidence, resulting in a 600+ vote of no confidence in the Tories.

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    1. It'll be Labour pushing for an early election this time, not the Tories. The Tory-DUP majority looks solid enough, though, unless there are defections.

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    2. You're right. If the Tories can't win when they have a lead in the polls of 21% they'll be very wary of wanting another election. Perhaps if they elect a new leader. If it ever comes to a vote of no confidence in the Tories, the SNP are duty bound to bring them down.

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    3. Well they helped bring down Labour and introduced Maggie to the World.
      The politically immature Nat sis are capable of anything that helps impoverish the Scots for their fascist ideals.

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    4. Kangaroo sayd
      I was around at the time, so these are more lies from GWC2. Read Callaghan's memoirs. He clearly states that it was his own labour MP's that brought down his Government. Nothing to do with the SNP.


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  2. Even while the implementation may be quite different, a lot of the ideas espoused by Sturgeon about the future direction of the country mirror those of David Cameron's "Big Society" brand of one-nation liberal conservatism. The various handouts to startups and businesses, combined with rates relief and the SNP's unwillingness to raise certain taxes or even cut others - these are definitely areas where the SNP program diverge from the left. What Nicola showed us today was an impeccable roadmap for -social democracy- but that isn't the same thing as socialism. Not to mention the SNP's emphasis on globalism and free trade with the EU, things contradictory to "actual" big-state protectionist socialism.

    By sheer virtue of his penchant for red flags, trade unions, batty 3rd world strongmen and marxist phrasemongering, the Corbynite project will *always* be much further Left than the SNP, which itself has to make compromises with capitalists while in government. The fact that the PLP have made him concede ground on Trident or his northern MPs on Brexit notwithstanding, there's nothing the SNP can do to actually change this perception unless New Labour comes back as a zombie with vengeance, and trying to do so is a fool's game. If Leonard wanted to flank her from the left, he could do so off the reflection of Corbyn's moment in the sun alone.

    That said, there seems to be a notion making the rounds that Leonard's Englishness will harm him with the left-nationalist voting bloc that SLab need to make inroads into. Do you think there's any truth to it? Is it pro-Anas concern-trolling? Is it an implicit accusation of anglophobia by the London commentariat?

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    1. The left nat si block must be smaller than the rubik cube. The nat sis are firmly in the hands of capitalism and always were. Just Tartan Tories...They want to join the EU and be a subservient little piece of the Greater Reich...

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    2. Vote for the Marxist Sarwar WATP FTP GSTQ

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    3. I agree. Sarwar is the man we Nats fear. Labour would be crazy not to pick him.

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    4. Anas Sarwar man of the people, solidarity with the working class. WATP FTP GSTQ

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    5. Sarwar a real Rangers man WATP FTP GSTQ

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  3. So James you have revealed you are the GWC2 impersonator. How sad. I thought you were a serious political pundit! AYE.

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    1. I spend enough time deleting your posts without adding to them. Don't flatter yourself.

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    2. Ooft. That's gonnae leave a mark...

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